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will the SuperDAC increase its valuation faster than BTSX?
Quote from: liondani on August 30, 2014, 12:40:36 pm bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?Thanks in advance You never know what's going to happen, but looking at Fib levels I see this from the sell off to the last bottom:Start 0.000126End 0.000039Diff -0.00008738.2% Retr 0.00007250% Retr 0.00008361.8% Retr 0.000093127.2% Ext 0.000151161.8% Ext 0.000180So, my expectation, even if we are about to continue downtrend, to resume to 38.2% at least.In fact all of these are good targets on the way up.
bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?Thanks in advance
Quote from: pioneer on September 03, 2014, 11:57:22 pmQuote from: MeTHoDx on September 03, 2014, 07:49:03 pmQuote from: changematey on September 03, 2014, 07:07:57 pmQuote from: bitmeat on September 01, 2014, 06:41:44 pmI might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.Awesome charts. Which site?http://www.sosobtc.com/kline/btsx/btc38.htmlAnyone know if this code is open source? I'll host an english version if it is.I prefer cryptrader any day: https://cryptrader.com/charts/bter/btsx/btcThey use Tradingview's API, and thus have many different indicators for technical analysis.soso is only better because of the volume... someone should port soso over to english.. i do the javascript trick to get prices in bitcoin but would be better if it were english.
Quote from: MeTHoDx on September 03, 2014, 07:49:03 pmQuote from: changematey on September 03, 2014, 07:07:57 pmQuote from: bitmeat on September 01, 2014, 06:41:44 pmI might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.Awesome charts. Which site?http://www.sosobtc.com/kline/btsx/btc38.htmlAnyone know if this code is open source? I'll host an english version if it is.I prefer cryptrader any day: https://cryptrader.com/charts/bter/btsx/btcThey use Tradingview's API, and thus have many different indicators for technical analysis.
Quote from: changematey on September 03, 2014, 07:07:57 pmQuote from: bitmeat on September 01, 2014, 06:41:44 pmI might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.Awesome charts. Which site?http://www.sosobtc.com/kline/btsx/btc38.htmlAnyone know if this code is open source? I'll host an english version if it is.
Quote from: bitmeat on September 01, 2014, 06:41:44 pmI might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.Awesome charts. Which site?
I might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.
Quote from: kisa0145 on September 02, 2014, 12:29:44 pmnormal yes, but i thought crazy buying hype was some 10 days ago, and crazy profit taking was some 5 days ago... so i expected the daily volume to stabilize around 200K since the price was hovering at current levels for a few days now.... But the volume kept high, so I was wondering about the timing for this reduction. whatever. one can probably artificially increase the volume shown just by churning BTSX holdings on some exchanges via a bot, no?It was also extended weekend - holiday in the US.
normal yes, but i thought crazy buying hype was some 10 days ago, and crazy profit taking was some 5 days ago... so i expected the daily volume to stabilize around 200K since the price was hovering at current levels for a few days now.... But the volume kept high, so I was wondering about the timing for this reduction. whatever. one can probably artificially increase the volume shown just by churning BTSX holdings on some exchanges via a bot, no?
Ya, you can sell coins to yourself but you'd get killed by transaction fees doing it for very long.
Trading usually costs fee .. unless you have too much money trade back and forth like crazy doesn't make too much sense
Well, crazy hype is over, is that not normal in your mind?
Quote from: kisa0145 on September 02, 2014, 12:14:15 pmguys any thoughts why BTSX had stable $1.5m+ daily volume over the last week, falling now so rapidly to below 0.5m?- was there any attempt to keep the volume artificially high last week? or is it rather temporary drop now?We don't want just a weather forecast! We want to know HOW it works and WHY it rained yesterday but not today!
guys any thoughts why BTSX had stable $1.5m+ daily volume over the last week, falling now so rapidly to below 0.5m?- was there any attempt to keep the volume artificially high last week? or is it rather temporary drop now?
just to be clear .. I3 will not solve any (except scalability and stability) of these problems .. they build the technologie and the toolkit ..DACSunlimited will have to sol e the above issues ..
Quote from: bitmeat on August 31, 2014, 04:28:10 pmQuote from: tbkmcjl on August 31, 2014, 08:54:58 amYou're assuming all the number and charts are real.But think about MTGOX. They have charts too ,after they lost tons of BTC and USD,still trading like normal until ...Boom...They ARE real. Yes, there are risks with centralized exchanges. But once BTSX starts trading again you have DOM there as well.Feel free to start a separate thread discussing risks of BTER. can we go to 1 USD this year ?
Quote from: tbkmcjl on August 31, 2014, 08:54:58 amYou're assuming all the number and charts are real.But think about MTGOX. They have charts too ,after they lost tons of BTC and USD,still trading like normal until ...Boom...They ARE real. Yes, there are risks with centralized exchanges. But once BTSX starts trading again you have DOM there as well.Feel free to start a separate thread discussing risks of BTER.
You're assuming all the number and charts are real.But think about MTGOX. They have charts too ,after they lost tons of BTC and USD,still trading like normal until ...Boom...
Yea I've been following it. Bter just seems to follow whatever btc38 does however, so that DOM indicator isn't all that important I feel; Unless I'm missing something?
Seems to be a bit of resistance at the 38.2% fib level. What level will be support if we drop down again? The last bottom?
retrace or extension.. retrace is below 100% and extension is above 100%.I have the 161.8 fib target in my mind.. it matches my fuzzy math target and funny you get that as a fib extension.Incidentily... based on experience anything that reaches 61.8% retrace means that the current low is in and a new cycle has been created... where any retrace is a buy... If the 61.8% retrace was a bull. Since 31.8% was hit and it went through easily... next up to test is 50%..
Quote from: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 06:51:34 pmQuote from: liondani on August 30, 2014, 12:40:36 pm bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?Thanks in advance You never know what's going to happen, but looking at Fib levels I see this from the sell off to the last bottom:Start 0.000126End 0.000039Diff -0.00008738.2% Retr 0.000072 - TARGET REACHED50% Retr 0.00008361.8% Retr 0.000093127.2% Ext 0.000151161.8% Ext 0.000180So, my expectation, even if we are about to continue downtrend, to resume to 38.2% at least.In fact all of these are good targets on the way up.
Quote from: liondani on August 30, 2014, 12:40:36 pm bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?Thanks in advance You never know what's going to happen, but looking at Fib levels I see this from the sell off to the last bottom:Start 0.000126End 0.000039Diff -0.00008738.2% Retr 0.000072 - TARGET REACHED50% Retr 0.00008361.8% Retr 0.000093127.2% Ext 0.000151161.8% Ext 0.000180So, my expectation, even if we are about to continue downtrend, to resume to 38.2% at least.In fact all of these are good targets on the way up.
Start 0.000126End 0.000039Diff -0.00008738.2% Retr 0.00007250% Retr 0.00008361.8% Retr 0.000093127.2% Ext 0.000151161.8% Ext 0.000180
Quote from: jae208 on August 30, 2014, 10:40:31 amQuote from: mf-tzo on August 30, 2014, 10:25:43 amQuoteLuckily for me I am keeping a significant number of my BTSX on one of the exchanges. So I can make trades in a speedy manner. sellin at the topGood for you! And I imagine most people do the same and that's why BTSX price keep falling...So unless we fix the bugs and have a stable client BitsharesX will continue to fall, which is fine for me since I can buy them cheaply but in order to do that I need to have at least a basic access to my wallet. I never keep any funds to any centralized exchange since if I wake up a nice morning and realize that the Chinese Government decided to close Bter or BTC38 I will be very sad...So just and advice...Be careful with the trust you give to the exchanges because some things might be out of their control..Yeah probably, but it's not the speculator's fault that it kept going down. Yes, you're right and I'm aware of that risk but at the current time I think BTSX is not in the Chinese government's radar. I could be wrong.BTC=LTC=BTS=DOGE.....in the current law .....If the government wants to kill BTC,all crypto would go down as well.It's the same treatment.
Quote from: mf-tzo on August 30, 2014, 10:25:43 amQuoteLuckily for me I am keeping a significant number of my BTSX on one of the exchanges. So I can make trades in a speedy manner. sellin at the topGood for you! And I imagine most people do the same and that's why BTSX price keep falling...So unless we fix the bugs and have a stable client BitsharesX will continue to fall, which is fine for me since I can buy them cheaply but in order to do that I need to have at least a basic access to my wallet. I never keep any funds to any centralized exchange since if I wake up a nice morning and realize that the Chinese Government decided to close Bter or BTC38 I will be very sad...So just and advice...Be careful with the trust you give to the exchanges because some things might be out of their control..Yeah probably, but it's not the speculator's fault that it kept going down. Yes, you're right and I'm aware of that risk but at the current time I think BTSX is not in the Chinese government's radar. I could be wrong.
QuoteLuckily for me I am keeping a significant number of my BTSX on one of the exchanges. So I can make trades in a speedy manner. sellin at the topGood for you! And I imagine most people do the same and that's why BTSX price keep falling...So unless we fix the bugs and have a stable client BitsharesX will continue to fall, which is fine for me since I can buy them cheaply but in order to do that I need to have at least a basic access to my wallet. I never keep any funds to any centralized exchange since if I wake up a nice morning and realize that the Chinese Government decided to close Bter or BTC38 I will be very sad...So just and advice...Be careful with the trust you give to the exchanges because some things might be out of their control..
Luckily for me I am keeping a significant number of my BTSX on one of the exchanges. So I can make trades in a speedy manner. sellin at the top
The choice of name does not change what a thing is, and animal control agents are unlikely to shrug and walk away satisfied if one points to a pack of pit bulls frolicking on one's front lawn and declares, "Oh those? No, they're just canines. These aren't the pit bulls you're looking for."
Quote from: Riverhead on August 30, 2014, 10:23:41 amThe market is currently paused so nothing is moving right now . Go get drunk and by the time your hang over passes on Monday hopefully we'll be in better shape.Followed this advice. Went to the beach and drank myself retarded on rum. Hangover and market is up.
The market is currently paused so nothing is moving right now . Go get drunk and by the time your hang over passes on Monday hopefully we'll be in better shape.
So what's the story with your wallet? Mine is up and running fine on Windows 7/8 and Linux. Also remember the wallet doesn't need to be in sync to send/receive funds. It can still send messages to the network. Anything you receive won't show up until the blockchain is up to date and scanned but existing funds can be moved.
QuoteThe market is currently paused so nothing is moving right now . Go get drunk and by the time your hang over passes on Monday hopefully we'll be in better shape. The best advice for the day! I'll get started right away...
We are not on the move yet...I do not have access to my bitusd or my BTSX hopefully saved on the BitsharesX vault. I don't even know what is the status of my short order, my collateral, if bitusd have been transfered to the client from Bter...nothing...All I can do is just watch and see opportunities slip through my hands... ... Do we expect any new version coming out within the weekend or not? Should I just go get drunk for the whole weekend and stop thinking about it?
Quote from: changematey on August 30, 2014, 08:00:52 amQuote from: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 07:40:59 amI didn't say it will go there in a day. I'm pointing out that there is a $2B target market, which is not unreasonable at all.Yes, I worked with a hedge fund and did automated trading systems for them for about 2.5 years.EDIT: Given that FOREX brokers are not regulated and hard to trust, BitShares might be a good, more transparent solution.Also even big and stable brokerages can fail - look up the RefCo fiasco.Well there is always an upside to things, I would also like for it to reach the $1 mark but at given situation there is no reason why it should. Maybe a good marketing strategy will turn it around later, so I am not saying it wont, just that the reasons about "small businesses" coming in wont be happening any time soon. Even if Forex brokers are scam companies, what kind of marketing BTSX has to actually replace them. A better solution is not always the most prominent solution, is it? Given we are yet to get media exposure/ a bitpay type business platform signing up businesses to use BTSX, we are really far off. Unless of course Brian pull a magical rabbit out of the hat. As for the HF, are you sure you want to discuss that background on the forum, in crypto people normally tend to hate such profiles I would love to build a high-grade trading interface, such that people familiar with MetaTrader will have no problem understanding.This is better than marketing, as it would market itself.
Quote from: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 07:40:59 amI didn't say it will go there in a day. I'm pointing out that there is a $2B target market, which is not unreasonable at all.Yes, I worked with a hedge fund and did automated trading systems for them for about 2.5 years.EDIT: Given that FOREX brokers are not regulated and hard to trust, BitShares might be a good, more transparent solution.Also even big and stable brokerages can fail - look up the RefCo fiasco.Well there is always an upside to things, I would also like for it to reach the $1 mark but at given situation there is no reason why it should. Maybe a good marketing strategy will turn it around later, so I am not saying it wont, just that the reasons about "small businesses" coming in wont be happening any time soon. Even if Forex brokers are scam companies, what kind of marketing BTSX has to actually replace them. A better solution is not always the most prominent solution, is it? Given we are yet to get media exposure/ a bitpay type business platform signing up businesses to use BTSX, we are really far off. Unless of course Brian pull a magical rabbit out of the hat. As for the HF, are you sure you want to discuss that background on the forum, in crypto people normally tend to hate such profiles
I didn't say it will go there in a day. I'm pointing out that there is a $2B target market, which is not unreasonable at all.Yes, I worked with a hedge fund and did automated trading systems for them for about 2.5 years.EDIT: Given that FOREX brokers are not regulated and hard to trust, BitShares might be a good, more transparent solution.Also even big and stable brokerages can fail - look up the RefCo fiasco.
I would love to build a high-grade trading interface, such that people familiar with MetaTrader will have no problem understanding.This is better than marketing, as it would market itself.
Given the fact that people were shorting BITUSD to their heart content (mostly due to bullish on BTSX) without a corresponding stop loss order, their effective "stops" were near the margin call range. So for a big BTSX holder, wanting to buy cheap, it is much easier to trigger a short squeeze or a "stop hunt" by triggering a big sell on some exchanges (arb working out the rest). Something similar happens even in the forex markets. You target a lower end where the stops are to actually buy on a bounce rather than chase the market towards the top. That is quite some strategy bitmeat, I guess you were into forex trading before all this? And the market liquidity provides much more opportunity here, than what it did in forex, eh?That said, I have to disagree with the assertion you made in the op. Forex is a rather liquid market and has been running for years (and many gullible traders being pulled in for the 5% a day return promises). While BTSX has some great achievements like the BITUSD, I think retail or small level businesses picking it up is very far off. It will take some real great marketing campaign to actually achieve it. For now I think we will remain in a bit of a range before the actual breakoff comes around.
It did get to that price but I didn't see BitUSD near 30 BTSX though.Mind explaining your thought process and what you predict will happen next?Also, what is your personal opinion about the markets pegs, will they hold and why?
Quote from: jae208 on August 30, 2014, 04:23:31 amThe price has already been below what you predicted. Last night it was as low as $0.023But it did get to it, did it not?As a side note... I wasn't paying attention, was there finally a bit of a short squeeze?
The price has already been below what you predicted. Last night it was as low as $0.023
You sir, are Nostradamus. When do you think the market will pick up after this margin call?
And there it is! Boom goes the dynamite.
There is no incentive to buy BitUSD. If you think the price of BTSX is going to go down you are better off selling into BTC or real USD.Here is what I think will happen:People are using shorts to bet big that BTSX will go up in price. They are idiots, because by doing so they are breaking the market peg (or at least making it very innacurate). As a result of this the price of BTSX will innevitably go down, because it appears to outside observers that it isn't working very well, and BitAssets are pretty much the whole story in terms of getting new people interested at in Bitshares at the moment. The shorts will eventually get that the price of BTSX is in decline, or the system will force their hand with margin calls. BitUSD will reach parity with USD, and stupid bulls will take this as a reason to bet big again and break it again. This will keep happening over and over, and the price of BTSX will keep going down, until all the stupid people have lost all their money. That could take a very long time.
By the way 31 BTSX/BitUSD is equivalent to BTSX/BTC of 0.000063. So we are kinda there already. It is interesting to see how BitUSD reacts to the extreme spikes. So far it's been mostly stable.
1. DOWN - CORRECTIONFirst, everybody and their mom got all too excited and shorted the heck out of BitUSD chasing that $1/BTSX dream all too soon.Right now BitUSD is at a big discount - incentive to buy.All of that happened at the same time, so right now around 31BTSX/BitUSD there is a margin call frenzy waiting to happen. Once it happens, it should generate a huge short squeeze, effectively correcting BitUSD to where it needs to be.2. Then up we go...If BTSX starts getting embedded even in small time businesses, it can not be too low.With a limited supply of BTSX, imagine $10M trying to convert USD -> BTC -> BTSX -> BitUSD. Do you know the crazy amount of margin people would have to put to short 10M BitUSD?Furthermore this will drive the price of BTSX up. Ideally we want a gateway USD <-> BitUSD, otherwise people won't like the fact that by the time it gets through the 4 steps they have run up the price of BitUSD.I suppose they could do USD -> BTC -> BitUSD on something like BTER. That's a bit better.Still though, the margin required for that kinds of BitUSD is insane.At 20 BTSX/USD that means even if EVERY SINGLE holder of BTSX shorted BitUSD, you could only create $100M BitUSD. And not to mention that's just one assest.Take a look at this http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlookLook at the stats at the bottom. This is just FOREX traders who actually decided to register with this site their real accounts.Avg. Deposit : $77,973.88Avg. Account Profit : $27,688.4Avg. Account Loss : -$5,576.42Total Funds : $2,034,338,424.34That's $2B from just FOREX traders, who don't even know if their MetaTrader brokers are fair to them or not (software is designed to actually screw them over)Imagine $2B trying to trade within BTSX. The cost of BTSX just to handle the deposits would need to be close to $10/BTSX !!!And to reiterate that's just FOREX. Stocks/bonds/futures/options.----Now, I still think we will see a BTSX sell off and BitUSD run up short squeeze simply because folks clustered their margin call at the same spot around 30-31 BTSX/BitUSD.Disclaimer: Just my opinion... no idea what will actually happen, but will watch with great interest.