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Topics - jonasmeyer

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General Discussion / An attempt to quantify actual altcoin market shares
« on: January 22, 2015, 11:53:19 am »
I don't know if anyone on this board also tracks these numbers (and sadly, I haven't found a good source online for charts, so I would appreciate it if someone could post one or create one).  However, I have been tracking the relative market share of the Bitcoin market cap vs. the total crypto market cap since around Jan 2014. Interestingly, despite a change in value of over 75% since the peak, the market share of Bitcoin has remained remarkably stable. I've been tracking this on coinmarketcap.com, and just plugging it into a calculator to divide it out.

Other altcoins, not so much. There has been a lot of movement in the altcoin space up and down the rankings for second place and below, as I'm sure everyone on this board is keenly aware.

So per my numbers, which sadly I did not record in any systematic way, Bitcoin had around 90% market share, with daily volitility of less than 0.01%. You read that right. It seems that the market is very uncertain about the proper pricing of cryptocurrencies / cryptocommodities in general, but believes that the value of Bitcoin within that market is very stable. Bitshares and the rest have been competing over the remaining 10%, and there has been a fair amount of movement in this space, although Bitshares is also an island of stability here. This is good, in that we aren't really losing market share, but it is bad, because we aren't really gaining it much beyond the initial push.

However, recently, Bitcoin dropped to 80%, and has continued to be very stable after this sudden jump. This happened around the same time that Ripple "inflated" their distribution numbers, but they didn't inflate them by enough to account for the whole difference, so I'm confused.

I'd like to put out a call for real data. Let's track our market share over time. Specifically, I'd like to track the ACTUAL amount of XRP that has been distributed to the market, not the fake number that includes their "agreements to distribute" or whatever marketing speak they are calling it. There is good data on Bitcoin, but I'd also like to see the data on Bitshares. We can ignore Litecoin as a dead man walking with no real compelling use case other than laundering money back and forth between Bitcoin and Litecoin for obfuscation purposes. Similarly we can ignore PayCoin as an obvious scam, and all the other ones are too small to really make a difference in the numbers. (Plus, Stellar has way too little actual distribution for the market to price it correctly, and DogeCoin has hitched its wagon to Litecoin's fading star).

1) Can anyone point me to data on a "GINI coefficient for XRP" or wealth distribution or similar for XRP?
2) Can any point me to similar data on BitShares?

I will come back with fun graphs in exchange.

Thanks!

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General Discussion / Knowing when to stop
« on: October 31, 2014, 09:53:25 pm »
Several people have attempted to explain why the price of BTSX has fallen so dramatically recently. I can't claim any special authority, but I haven't seen my theory expressed yet, so I will do so and let the community judge the correctness.

BitShares offers some of the best technology in the cryptocurrency space. Specifically, DPOS and the peg mechanism are both brilliant economic / technological solutions that are proven, solve two of the largest problems with Bitcoin, and represent a real advancement over their competitive ideas.

Unfortunately, I am seeing a pattern that I have seen at several of the early stage silicon valley startup flame-outs that I have participated in as an engineer. (OK, so I guess I am claiming a LITTLE bit of special authority). Namely, the following pattern.

1) A brilliant engineer and technologist comes in and produces an amazing new solution to a real problem, and collects a sizable seed community. This attracts VCs (or in this case, capital from investors like myself).
2) The technologist now turned CEO, upon receiving this massive validation of their work in the form of millions of dollars of capital inflow, correctly concludes that the ideas that they have had so far were brilliant.
3) The technologist concludes that since their past ideas were great, that the future ones will be also. This is also probably true. However, large swaths of the community get alienated. They were buying into a particular vision, and that vision is now being discarded. They pull their capital, and the business suffers deeply. Sometimes it recovers, and sometimes it doesn't.

I'm not pulling my funding, but I suspect large swaths of our community have. It's important to know when to stop drawing outlines, and when to start coloring in the details of the vision. The most successful entrepreneurs know when to do that. Some of them go too far in the opposite direction, stop innovating altogether, and coast for the rest of their lives, but all the successful ones know when to stop making sweeping changes, or when to put the sweeping changes into a new vehicle.

Bytemaster, this particular set of changes you are advocating implementing might be good. Frankly, I'm not equipped to figure it out, and I suspect that it will take years of market validation to determine the answer. However, the BitSharesX of just a few weeks ago was brilliant, and was growing by leaps and bounds (if you compared it to a traditional business) even when the larger industry (cryptocurrencies in general) were shrinking. This is hard feedback, but I hope that you understand that I am coming from a place of constructive criticism, and an honest desire to improve BitSharesX.

I think what people are worried about is that you won't stop here. Once you have erased a hard line you put in place (no dilution), how can the random investor know which other lines will be preserved? The uncertainty is hurting the community, and we are not without competition.

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