Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.
See this historical graph:
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2
I'm assuming the reason it has stopped this progression is because of Bitcoin 2.0, primarily BitsharesX.
And it seems that Bitshares is taking up this 10 times increase every 6 months where Bitcoin left off.
After all, most of us purchased our Genesis block Bitshares at around $0.005 per share right? And the first bubble easily made it past $0.05 in about 6 months time.
My prediction is that it will hit $0.50 per share in less than 6 months, and that this rate will continue for some time. Anyone have any arguments for a different view?
Also, just as I've been predicting, the price of Bitshares would be depressed until the Either sale ended, many people taking their 10 times profit and rolling into Either. Now that is over, the price looks like it is starting to move again.
I want to believe that BTSX will be 0.50 in 6 months, but is there anything tangible backing this claim other than speculation at this point?
If you do not know some of the powerful arguments for why it could be worth $0.50 in 6 months, you must be new to this forum. A few of the very powerful (though not quantitative) arguments I know about, which are most convincing to me, are the fact that everyone always talks about how Bitcoin is just the first draft of this decentralized technology, and that something far superior will eventually replace it, long term. Hence the term Crypto Currency 2.0.
Also, BitsharesX, as far as I can see, is vastly superior not only to Bitcoin, but to everything else out there, or even on the horizon. The second most powerful argument to me, is the fact that there is a critical need (i.e. HUGE demand) for a crypto currency that is Stable in price. BitUSD is the first technology that has now proven that this is possible. In other words, BitUSD, once sufficiently proven to everyone, could replace the US government as the largest distributor of USD denominated currencies or stores of value (i.e. more than all T-bonds issued by the US Governement). And even if only .0001% of that happens, the price of BTSX cold literally "go to the moon", or as THE bytmaster prefers to say: "Go to Mars, or even Pluto" simply because of all the BTSX collateral requited to enable that to happen. And I can think of a whole shitload of other arguments that are near as powerful as these, but there isn't space for all that here. If there are any BIG (as in convinces lots of people) arguments for anyone I've messed, I'd like to hear them.
Finally, are you familiar with exponential laws like Moore's Law
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law and the more general Kurzweil's Law of Accelerating Returns
http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns? Gordon More helped Intel grow as much as they did by predicting the growth rate of Integrated Circuits with his very accurate predictions that came to be known as Moore's Law.
When I saw Bitcoin doing a very similar law like thing, over a very surprisingly long period of time, especially the last 10 times increase in 6 months, for a total of 7 times, (and now Bitshares repeating this) I couldn't believe that could happen, so consistently, with something like Bitcoin. So I started thinking of this as the "Canonized law of the Crypto Currency" and figured if there was a 2.0 Crypto Currency, it could take over the growth were Bitcoin left off, just as Kurzweil predicts will happen with new paradigm shifts, in his generalized law of accelerating returns.
Sure, long term, the first non quantitative arguments I pointed out seem very powerful to me. But there is nothing quantitative about those long term predictions. To me, this Mores law is a very powerful argument, and not only that, it is a very quantitative argument, that puts some real numbers to things. It is just a general observation that very improbably things, when there is enough of these kind of megatrend things like this, they can become Law like.
And, disclaimer, this "Canonized law of Crypto Currency"
http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2 is not tied to Bitcoin, Bitshares or any individual currency. Just as Moore's Law didn't only apply to Intel Chips. It is just the decentralized peer to peer technology in general, and includes the market cap of all of them, combined.
I'd be interested if anyone else besides me thinks this could be a very powerful quantitative predictor of the future total value of all Crypto Currency, just as Moore's law still accurately and quantitatively predicts Chip densities.