^^ AsymmetricInformation^^ are you involved with the development on the site you posted a link to?
No. Although I now feel the need to disclose a few things: I did help them come up with the particular wording of this contract, which is why I'm extra interested in this particular market. Also, I just found out (just now) that the administrators, who are interested in my research, are going to donate the fees they collect for these 3 markets to my Truthcoin project, which is very nice of them (although they [and I] believe that these fees will be very very small). However I still have no affiliation with that site. They've posted in my bitcointalk thread to talk about prediction markets, and sent me a few messages about my work.
If you read what I've published I think you'll understand that my primary motivation is just to get the word out about how cool PMs are and how they can save everyone a lot of time and effort. I'm really not trying to push the site or these specific markets, other than that this is an opportunity for investors to actually learn about when the software will actually come out.
I just think it would be better to buy something that already has ‘determined’ (even if changing with each bet) odds. It is kind of hard to 1.come with reasonable odds 2. Wait somebody to hopefully take the other side.
Since publishing my work, I've been in contact with several people about their PM ideas/websites. I always suggest the use of Market Scoring Rules, which just say "costs x for y shares" (where y shares are always worth 1 unit, for example 1 BTC). These are much easier to understand, as you say, and you don't need to wait for anyone to take the other side, again as you say.
Unfortunately most PM-operators don't want to use them. I have a couple theories as to why. In the lead is: people put in lots of effort coming up with their own custom way of doing the trading environment, and don't want to abandon it.
I placed the first 3 bets, though, not wanting to see the market stall out (after I myself worded it!). Its true that I have no idea when BitsharesX will be released, I assumed that it would be before September, but bet against that so that someone who also thought it would be released soon would have someone to bet against (me). I used the "advanced" mode which I actually found easier to understand (just set the probability and amount, similar to InTrade).