Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - morpheus

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6
31
General Discussion / Re: Bitshares price discussion
« on: January 29, 2016, 06:29:17 am »
Anyone knows this guy from twitter? https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/comments/42sjjb/looks_like_an_altcoin_revival_just_nailed_3_big/

seems to have predicted ethereum and doge pumps and now he aims for BitShares

Question is... Should we sell on this rise?  Based on the shit going on with the committee I think we will have a great chance to rebuy sub 7.5 million

And its on its way! New question... will it stop at 7.5 million or are we going down to sub 7 or even 6...

I doubt it.  Looks like a breakout to me.  I think we continue to see some consolidation around 900 - 1100 sat and then the big move higher happens.

32
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 29, 2016, 12:48:39 am »
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/

33
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 29, 2016, 12:45:19 am »
@sports-owner

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Here you are.

http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDE
http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVE

enjoy

Thanks

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1344639.new#new
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21225.0.html

35
This thread is on bitcointalk and I am also posting it here. 

The following Prediction Market assets are available for trading.

SPFIVE - If the S&P 500 is at or above $1875.00 on December 30th 2016 then this asset will be worth 1BTS. If the S&P 500 is below $1875.00 then this asset will be worth 0BTS.

WTICRUDE - If the price of WTI Crude oil is greater or equal to $40.00 on December 30th at 4PM eastern time. (UTC-5) then this asset will be worth 1BTS. If the price is below $40.00 this asset will be worth 0BTS. If you believe that the price will be above $40.00 buy and hold. If you beleive the price will be below $40.00 borrow and sell.

Click here for more information on how this Prediction Market works.

To trade:
1.    create an account on the OpenLedger platform
2.   Fund the account with bitshares – other assets are less liquid at the moment but should eventually be available for trading.  So for now, you will probably have to use the native currency, bts
3.   Navigate to your market of choice:



4.   Place your bets

Disclaimer:  I am in no way responsible for any problems or financial loss that may occur when using this (still experimental) system.

36
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 26, 2016, 06:19:25 pm »
@sports-owner

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

37
General Discussion / Re: Meanwhile - Ethereum quietly overtakes Ripple
« on: January 25, 2016, 06:11:41 pm »
Updated OP

38
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 25, 2016, 06:04:45 pm »
No feed for NFC game?

What do you mean?


The OP said short and sell for one condition and buy and hold for another. There was nothing for sale and I couldn't short.

So participants have to trust the person or people who created the PM instead of a decentralized oracle of some sort?

39
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 25, 2016, 05:58:41 pm »
 +5% +5% +5%

Are you going to do a PM for the Super Bowl?

Can open bids, asks, and collateral positions be cancelled at the beginning of the game?

Can these PMs be created through the gui at this point in time?

40
General Discussion / Meanwhile - Ethereum quietly overtakes Ripple
« on: January 23, 2016, 06:38:26 pm »

41
General Discussion / Re: why bts lack users????????
« on: January 23, 2016, 03:37:35 pm »
They don't have to string together a series a trades.  If I borrow 1btc from the network at 2x collateral, and then sell that btc into the market I should recover at least half of my collateral.  Although it took an initial outlay of twice the bts, I only have 1 btc worth of bts tied up as collateral.  Until my sell goes through I am not short and no funds are risked.  I can close my borrow position at any time.

I get what you are saying but you still need 2x collateral to enter such a position and your max gain is capped at less than 100% while your max loss is still 100%.  Also, to get a 90% gain on the position, you need a 1000% rise in the btc/bts pair.  It just doesn't make sense from a risk/reward perspective.  A lending market will fix this. 

42
General Discussion / Re: why bts lack users????????
« on: January 23, 2016, 06:33:09 am »
Short .5 bts then sell that, then use those funds to short .3 bts then sell them then use those funds to short the last .2.  Btc price is so high this would net more than 1 btc short.

When you create an asset you not only get the short position you also get the asset.

@tonyk

Ok, I knew there was a technicality in there somewhere, but nobody is realistically going to string together a series of trades just to eventually get to a 1:1 ratio, getting eaten up with fees on the way there.  This won't fly with the end user. 

From a single trade perspective (the end user perspective), you are still here:


43
General Discussion / Re: why bts lack users????????
« on: January 23, 2016, 03:56:02 am »
Example:
with 1 BTC worth of BTS you can short 1 BTC. Any x% increase in the BTS price (in respect to BTC) results in profit from that short position. The amount of BTS profited is exactly x/100 in  BTC terms.

So with 100 K BTS  and BTS price at 100,000 BTS/BTC and we short 1 BTC.(we get 100K bts from this sell.)

Your initial outlay will be 200k bts at 2x collateral, all of which is at risk... so if price goes to 200,000 BTS/BTC, you loose 100% of all 200,000 bts


Nope! Exactly 100K BTS.

Do you wanna bet?




1.You deposit exactly 1BTC worth of BTS into an account. (127,353 BTS as of this writing)

2. You give me access to this account (by changing the permissions in the GUI to threshold of 1 and my account weight set to 1)

3. I will short you 1 bitBTC without sending any more money to that account.

4. When you have 1 bitBTC short in that account, everything that is not in collateral is what I get for winning the bet. ( Idk, maybe even I can leave you 50% of all proceeds of bitBTC sold above feed price :)   )


Deal?

PS
You might also post the account here so the curious can enjoy.

PSS
I cut your post to the point where you got it wrong, so the rest of it is based on erroneous facts.

I don't bet unless the odds are in my favor and you sound pretty confident so Im sure I could lose this one.  Maybe you know some backdoor hack to do that, in which case it would be an attack that would render the whole thing useless until fixed.

I am coming at this from an end user perspective, which is the most important perspective.  Explain to me this: 

I get the following message when trying to create 1 bitcoin at a 1:1 collateral ratio (128,972 bts to 1 btc):  Collateral ratio is too low, position will be margin called instantly.



I get the same message up until a collateral ratio of 1:1.9



I need a collateral ratio of at least 1.95 to create the position, which equates to 251,183 bts put at risk.



How is it possible to override that error message with a collateral ratio of 1:1?



P.S.  yes we are derailing this thread

44
General Discussion / Re: why bts lack users????????
« on: January 23, 2016, 12:38:52 am »
Example:
with 1 BTC worth of BTS you can short 1 BTC. Any x% increase in the BTS price (in respect to BTC) results in profit from that short position. The amount of BTS profited is exactly x/100 in  BTC terms.

So with 100 K BTS  and BTS price at 100,000 BTS/BTC and we short 1 BTC.(we get 100K bts from this sell.)

Your initial outlay will be 200k bts at 2x collateral, all of which is at risk... so if price goes to 200,000 BTS/BTC, you loose 100% of all 200,000 bts

Quote
The price doubles (aka 100% price increase) to 50,000 BTS/BTC. We buy the one bitBTC back paying 50K from the 100K BTS we got from selling it => profit of 50K BTS... which are worth exactly 1 BTC. and we have exactly 100% profit on 100% price increase.
This btw continues on - at 120% increase one will have 120% profit and so on... and the potential lost is never .well more than 100% or 1BTC worth of BTS.

If price goes to 50,000 BTS/BTC, then we use 50,000 bts to buy back the 1 BTC, giving us a 25% profit on initial capital put at risk.  50,000 of 200,000 is 25%

If price goes to 0 BTS/BTC (max), then we we gain 100,000 bts, which is 50% of the 200,000 bts put at risk, capping our gains at 50% of initial capital put at risk.  I suppose you could say your gain in BTC is infinite but if the price of bitcoin is 0 at the time of redemtion, have you really gained anything in terms of purchasing power when priced in bitcoin. 

Its kind of like putting $200,000 down to buy a $100,000 house and selling the house for $100,000, netting you $300,000 with debt of the house.  Then the house burns to the ground and is worth $0.  You reacquire the house for $0 and return it to repay the loan and you end up with $300,000.  Realistically, did you gain infinite purchasing power because the house burned to the ground, or did you gain $100,000 of purchasing power because the house burned to the ground?  You gained $100,000 of purchasing power on a $200,000 outlay so your gain is 50%.  If the price of the house would have gone to $200,000, your loss would be 100%.

I know it sounds really bass-ackwards, but that is how most people are looking at it around here.  We need to start looking at bts as the native reserve currency of the system, which will be tough as far as adoption is concerned, but is doable and necessary for the system to thrive.  Who knows, eventually it could become a viable international currency and perhaps the world's reserve currency.

45
General Discussion / Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
« on: January 22, 2016, 01:06:30 am »
I try to borrow and get the message:

No valid feeds for SPORTS.NFLNFC

edit:  works with firefox, not with chrome

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6