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Messages - morpheus

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46
General Discussion / Re: why bts lack users????????
« on: January 21, 2016, 11:59:36 pm »
I'm with you.. I actually was hoping to see more feedback from others in your thread but saw nothing.

Are there any regulatory issues we may face in creating lending markets like this?

I don't know.  I hate regulation and choose to ignore it (at least for now), which may come back to bite me one day.  It would be a shame if a great new world changing technology was stopped because of regulation.  I say build it first and deal with the regulation later.  Once the system is highly profitable and ready for mainstream, then we can pay people through worker proposal to deal with the regulators.  Chances are the regulators won't bother you in the earliest stages, like right now.

47
General Discussion / Re: Is it me...
« on: January 21, 2016, 11:53:28 pm »
What do you think about BTS itself being the lender with 1-2% spread up to a daily limit?

People buying Smartcoins increases demand for BTS. BTS also gets the 0.2% trading fee & might even make a profit on the spread.

If the risk profile, gets too high, LiquidUSD can stop accepting new positions.

I think BTS should experiment with at least one liquid Smartcoin product to attract people to BTS and the exchange.

I like the idea of pure p2p lending better, if it can work that way.  Anything that decentralizes control or at least appears to be more decentralized.

48
General Discussion / Re: Is it me...
« on: January 21, 2016, 11:51:11 pm »
morpheus, you seem like an interesting character. Would you mind telling us a bit more about yourself and you experience? So far I've greatly enjoyed reading your posts.

I am a systems engineer (mostly networking) turned trader.  90% of all traders fail so it has been a huge feat and I may have failed had it not been for bitcoin, which was a big hit and gave me the capital and experience necessary to become a consistently profitable trader. 

So with a background in IT and an interest in finance, bitcoin was the perfect storm and now I believe 2.0 protocols are where the greatest potential is... and bitshares is the closest to producing the 'killer app" that everyone has been looking for.  The smartcoin lending market and prediction market (which can also double as a binary options market - perfect for traders) are two of the most promising applications of blockchain technology. 

However, its important to understand that this all may not go according to plan and another competitor could take the reins.  As a trader, I have been humbled many times when I have been wrong and at times when markets have seemed to consistently go against me, as I believe many here have been humbled by the relentless bear market in bitshares, so it is important to keep things in perspective.  However, with a little more work, we could right the ship and be in for a relentless bull market that would dwarf the bear market. 

49
General Discussion / Re: Is it me...
« on: January 21, 2016, 08:00:15 pm »
Problem is most people here have never traded or don't understand it... They don't know about the money management factor in trading.  Personally I don't think BM has done any trading based on how he designed this system.

Unless he learns something about the needs of traders and then agrees with it, I doubt we will see CNX work on an effective lending market solution.

I mostly agree.  Successful traders develop a different mindset and they know that money management is half the battle.  To a successful trader, this is bad money management:



So you are not going to attract successful traders who are going to take that kind of risk... and you need successful traders to organically bootstrap liquidity.  Otherwise, you will get no liquidity.  Once liquidity is bootstrapped, then savers and investors can enter the picture and these markets can grow. 

I believe the building blocks are in place... DPOS and a basic market engine.  The basic design of smartcoins is sound, with a few tweeks necessary.  However, many folks here don't quite seem to get it on a theoretical level.  Bts provides many functions, one of which is collateral for smartcoins, which makes the smartcoin creator a lender.  The bts owner lends her bts to be used to create smartcoins.  Now the question becomes, who does she lend the smartcoins to?  The best case is for her to offer to lend them to other peers who can use those smartcoins to trade on leverage with other peers who have also borrowed smartcoins.  Then the system works and liquidity grows organically attracting many other types of smartcoin users, but not until then.  This is the only way in a derivatives market structured such as this.  If she creates them and then sells them, then she is making a bad bet because of the risk/reward profile, unless of course if she charges a high enough premium, which is what we are seeing right now.

Once stealth is implemented, this should be our focus.

50
General Discussion / Re: Is it me...
« on: January 21, 2016, 06:03:27 pm »
Shateholders seem to be scared of trading.

If you don't use it, you will loose it!

Are you serious?  They are not scared.  They are just not stupid.  How many times do I have to point this out:



The risk/reward profile doesn't work.  That is why we have seen zero growth in liquidity since the 2.0 launch.  Its time to make a change.  Reducing forced settlement to 99% of feed and a lending market will fix this and put smartcoin creators in their true role, as lenders.

51
General Discussion / Re: Is it me...
« on: January 21, 2016, 03:55:02 pm »
We are 90% there.  Reducing forced settlement to 99% of feed across the board and the lending market will fix this as I have outlined here:

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21099.msg273469.html#msg273469

and here:

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,20976.msg271612.html#msg271612

52
General Discussion / Re: why bts lack users????????
« on: January 21, 2016, 03:47:35 pm »
Simply this:



This is why we are not seeing any growth in the smartcoin market.  The lending market will fix this as I have outlined in this post. 

In order to become profitable bitshares has to solve a real-world problem that has not already been solved.  Right now it doesn't completely solve a real-world problem, but it is 90% of the way there.  Stealth, by itself, does not solve a real world problem that has not already been solved but it is necessary.  The two things on the docket that will allow bitshares to solve a real world problem are the lending market and the prediction market.  The lending market, in conjunction with the creation of the most popular physical commodity markets and equity market indicies, and making of these markets will solve a real world problem that has never been solved before in a decentralized fashion.  Maker will be helpful too. 

Once stealth is done, we should go full force and fund the lending market and prediction market (at the same time if possible) through cnx, no matter what the cost.  The cost will be worse if we don't.


And don't tell me about Bitcoin mining is the same as BItShares dilution . I know a lot of BItcoin miners shutdown their mining when the price is too low . But that's hardly happened in BitShares . When BTS price is low , the magic word is "dilute on market rate " .

That is a good point.  Development doesn't get cheaper as prices fall.

53
General Discussion / Re: Bitcoins Chaos is an Opportunity?
« on: January 19, 2016, 02:46:15 am »
Bitcoin bashing and dilution is not going to work this time just like it has never worked in the past.  In fact, it may kill bitshares this time. 

What is really needed is a PM asset for the blocksize limit, so we can assist miners, merchants, devs, stakeholders and other members of the bitcoin community in determining how to proceed and give a rough, market driven estimate of when to expect this debate to be resolved, and we can showcase one of bitshares features at the same time.  Hopefully this functionality will be ready soon. 

For instance, create a PM asset that says, "Will a block greater than 1mb be produced on the bitcoin blockchain by Dec 31 2016?  Yes or no.  Perhaps two PM assets can be created, one ending on June 30 and  one on Dec 31st, or perhaps even quarterly.  This will provide an example of an actual useful application of bitshares technology, vs dumping a bunch of crapcoins on people.

54
General Discussion / Re: Adjusted prediction market
« on: January 18, 2016, 11:09:58 pm »
when is the next gui expected so we can take these bets?
Wednesday most likely.

Nice  +5%

55
General Discussion / Re: I just sold all my Bitshares!
« on: January 17, 2016, 03:12:51 pm »

56
Although Bitshares 2.0 already has prediction market backend, its frontend should be more developed.

We can have "Prediction Market" tab in the current wallet. But I think it would be much better to additionally have separated, simple, and light application only for prediction market. Some unrelated functions (voting, permission, explorer, trading, etc.) can be removed and the app only has transfer and prediction market functions.

What do you think?

Isn't that something to service providers who want to make a business out of Prediction Markets?

I question this too.  For example, why does the community pay for GUI development (in openledger I presume) but ccedk receive all the referral income?

57
There is no feed price for oil because there is no "one OIL" price AFAIR

Yeah.  We would probably want to go with the futures price.  If we can get this price from multiple exchanges we could take the mean.  If not we could just use the price of the largest exchange.

We should probably specify between BRENT and WTI, the two most popular benchmarks in the oil industry.  Both have different prices.  I suppose perhaps you could take a median price feed from both or all three benchmark markets, since bitshares is truly global... we could set the standard for a globally priced oil.

58
General Discussion / Re: Why a lending market is crucial
« on: January 12, 2016, 02:16:36 pm »
How would a lending market work exactly?

Others have suggested to emulate the poloniex lending market, which is pretty straightforward if you have ever used it.  Basically, each trade would be a separate contract between lender and borrower where the borrower borrows an asset and sells it for another asset and pays the lender a daily interest rate over the course of the loan.  I don't have the technical knowledge to understand how the logistics would work on a blockchain, but I'm sure it won't be trivial.  The biggest problem I could foresee is margin calls in thinly traded markets.  It may be that the lender has to assume some of the risk to begin with.


59
General Discussion / Why a lending market is crucial
« on: January 12, 2016, 12:12:44 am »
The risk/reward for users who generate bitassets and then sell those bitassets doesn’t currently work. 



Example:  Suppose bitusd is trading at 300 bts/usd.  I think this price could go to 100 bts/usd.  I create 1 usd with 2x collateral, or 600 bts and sell it for 300 bts – I now have a total of 900 bts collateralizing 1 usd.  If the price goes to:



No trader in their right mind would take those odds – max gain of 50% and a max loss of 100%.  That is why you see the premium charged.  Also, the guaranteed forced settlement at parity makes it worse.

As we have seen, bitasset buyers are reluctant to pay these high premiums.  A lending market can potentially alleviate this discrepancy.  The bitasset creator can generate bitassets and lend them instead of selling them and earn a risk-free rate of return.  This will put the bitasset creator in their true role as a lender, not a borrower (which they have been forced into).  Any bts holder could target markets with the highest loan demand and highest interest and create bitassets to loan in those markets to earn a risk-free return on their bts. 

Also, reducing forced settlement to 99% of spot universally would help.  Combining this with the lending market could potentially bring trading to near parity.

IMO, this will bring the dex into a more typical leveraged derivatives market where incentives are aligned between all parties - lenders, speculators, and investors.

60
You need to also realize that a workee that pays to the committe does not 'really' result in an extra 'dilution' since the funds cannot easily leave the system as sell pressure on polo .. the workers pay will stay in the system and may even make some profit for the dex ..
Fast forward some months, those profits could be burned again

I've been trying to reason through the math of that. 

Let's say we create  a worker proposal for $30k worth of bts.  We then use that to short $10k USD.  We then sell that $10k USD for $10k worth of bts. 

Result is not net inflationary right? $10k USD on the market plus $30k USD as collateral.  I think I must be missing something through.

Net result is deflationary.  $30k worth of bts is effectively locked up and out of circulation while only $10k is in circulation.  This is assuming the usd creator maintains $30k in collateral. 

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