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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: Gentso1 on August 23, 2014, 02:09:58 pm

Title: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on August 23, 2014, 02:09:58 pm
I want to make sure I understand this price correctly before we start trading on Monday so please tell me if my math is correct. Please understand I have no trading experience other then a quick read of some definitions and I have no real intention of going short or long because I don't understand it well enough.

Here is a capture of the current market
(http://i58.tinypic.com/2ivckd1.png)

The first buy order is for, Short   0.008898,   224,762.00019,   2,000.0000   

So this person wants to buy bitUSD at a price of .008898 btsx each. At the current market price of .0000529 per btsx and a current btc price of 507.29 that gives us a fiat value of 0.026835641 per share of btsx.

224,762.00019btsx *.0000529 btsx per btc=11.88990981 btc=6031.63 fiat value=3.015815 fiat price per share of bitUSD

I know I have to be missing something here. Is this person just trying to get the first bitUSD? What are ways they can profit when paying 3.015815 fiat for 1 bitUSD.
(*I think I see it, They are betting there will be a massive drop in the price of btsx) If this is their play how do you figure out how much of a drop they need to profit.  Why not just sell btsx on the exchange and get 11.88990981 btc then convert to fiat and have 6031.63? Whats could be the possible motivation for  buying bitUSD at roughly 3 times the price of fiat?

I am sure the above will seem obvious to actual traders so dumb it down for me. I don't really want to day trade but I do like having a basic understanding why things are happening. Thanks

(P.S, for the love of all things crypto we need to change USD to bitUSD.)




Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: bytemaster on August 23, 2014, 02:14:53 pm
The short order was placed over a week ago and has not been canceled.   


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk (http://tapatalk.com/m?id=1)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on August 23, 2014, 02:17:38 pm
The short order was placed over a week ago and has not been canceled.   


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk (http://tapatalk.com/m?id=1)

lol that make sense as the price of btsx was much lower then.  I was doing all this and scratching my head going really?
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: bitmeat on August 23, 2014, 02:21:59 pm
I know I have to be missing something here. Is this person just trying to get the first bitUSD? What are ways they can profit when paying 3.015815 fiat for 1 bitUSD.
(*I think I see it, They are betting there will be a massive drop in the price of btsx) If this is their play how do you figure out how much of a drop they need to profit.  Why not just sell btsx on the exchange and get 11.88990981 btc then convert to fiat and have 6031.63? Whats could be the possible motivation for  buying bitUSD at roughly 3 times the price of fiat?

Those who short BitUSD, are actually expecting rise in BTSX, not drop. It is going to be very interesting to see how this unfolds, but this is the only chain that allows margin.

In other words those who short BitUSD are putting up their BTSX stake as a margin. It's like buying more BTSX with BTSX. :)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: speedy on August 23, 2014, 02:30:14 pm
I still find the terminology really confusing. Its not clear to me whether Bids means you are bidding for BTSX using bitUSD or vice versa.  ???

I wish the gui would remind me which is which in the column headers.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Riverhead on August 23, 2014, 02:32:07 pm
It does now in 0.4.7 :)


(http://i.imgur.com/DLj9Rss.png)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: speedy on August 23, 2014, 02:33:31 pm
It does now in 0.4.7 :)


(http://i.imgur.com/DLj9Rss.png)

Aah much better :)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: tonyk on August 23, 2014, 03:03:35 pm
It does now in 0.4.7 :)


(http://i.imgur.com/DLj9Rss.png)

Is it really changed tho in 0.4.7? What does it say when you switch the market to BTSX : BitUSD?


Pic 0.4.5
(http://i.imgur.com/nRSXfwe.png)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Riverhead on August 23, 2014, 03:05:20 pm
I see this. I guess it makes sense you can't short BTSX as the supply is (kinda) fixed.


(http://i.imgur.com/mgDBlyj.png)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Akado on August 24, 2014, 08:42:28 pm

Those who short BitUSD, are actually expecting rise in BTSX, not drop. It is going to be very interesting to see how this unfolds, but this is the only chain that allows margin.

In other words those who short BitUSD are putting up their BTSX stake as a margin. It's like buying more BTSX with BTSX. :)

could someone explain this to me in other words and in a more detailed way please? I didn't understand how it would work
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Xeldal on August 24, 2014, 09:27:41 pm

Those who short BitUSD, are actually expecting rise in BTSX, not drop. It is going to be very interesting to see how this unfolds, but this is the only chain that allows margin.

In other words those who short BitUSD are putting up their BTSX stake as a margin. It's like buying more BTSX with BTSX. :)

could someone explain this to me in other words and in a more detailed way please? I didn't understand how it would work

When you 'short' something, you are selling it, without actually owning it to begin with.  A short also has a promise to buy back at a later time.  This is called covering your short.

So when you short bitUSD, you are selling it with a promise to buy it back at a later date.  With a short position since you don't actually own the item you are selling, some collateral is necessary to ensure you make good on your promise to cover at a later date.

In this case the collateral would be BTSX.  So in shorting bitUSD, the system will hold some of your BTSX as collateral until you cover.

If you are shorting bitUSD you are betting that the price of bitUSD relative to BTSX will go down.  If it does go down and you cover, by buying back the bitUSD you sold in your short.  You will have made a profit by receiving more BTSX. (the difference between your sell and your buy)

if you sold at 1BTSX per bitUSD and you bought back(covered) at 1.10BTSX per bitUSD you would make the difference as profit (0.10BTSX) (This example show BTSX rising relative to bitUSD or bitUSD falling relative to BTSX. which is what you want if your shorting bitUSD)

So, in a way, you have used BTSX to earn more BTSX by shorting and then later covering at a lower price.  Keep in mind that if the price goes against you, you may be forced to cover at a HIGHER price and lose some or all of you collateral.

Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Empirical1 on August 24, 2014, 10:30:09 pm
I think lots of people will be willing to short BitUSD, not a lot willing to go long at the start.

Might make BitUSD price trade too far below peg. But this will hurt BTSX price causing the situation to correct itself...

Seems like it may need interest rates if you really want to keep it at 1-1. Because a short may be willing to short BitUSD and pay X% interest to entice a long to trade.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: mf-tzo on August 24, 2014, 10:41:25 pm
Quote
I think lots of people will be willing to short BitUSD, not a lot willing to go long at the start.

Might make BitUSD price trade too far below peg. But this will hurt BTSX price causing the situation to correct itself...

Seems like it may need interest rates if you really want to keep it at 1-1. Because a short may be willing to short BitUSD and pay X% interest to entice a long to trade.

You lost me here...why this will hurt BTSX price? If a lot of people go short bitusd, wouldn't bitusd fall relatively to BTSX price. Therefore BTSX will rise and will be worth more bitsud..

 
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 12:18:17 am
Quote
I think lots of people will be willing to short BitUSD, not a lot willing to go long at the start.

Might make BitUSD price trade too far below peg. But this will hurt BTSX price causing the situation to correct itself...

Seems like it may need interest rates if you really want to keep it at 1-1. Because a short may be willing to short BitUSD and pay X% interest to entice a long to trade.

You lost me here...why this will hurt BTSX price? If a lot of people go short bitusd, wouldn't bitusd fall relatively to BTSX price. Therefore BTSX will rise and will be worth more bitsud..

I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: toast on August 25, 2014, 12:20:25 am
If any motherfucker dares to short at $0.7 I will eat his collateral like a mama bear eats baby bear hunters
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 12:31:46 am
If any motherfucker dares to short at $0.7 I will eat his collateral like a mama bear eats baby bear hunters

 :) I'll take that to mean I've misunderstood something here and that even if I'm really bullish on BTSX, besides damaging the peg, I shouldn't be willing to short too far below it if there are no longs at BitUSD 1-1

 Edit As an example. I think I'm very bad with this stuff, I may not understand it...

If you think BTSX will double or triple in value in the short term like most of us do, even if you think the peg will come back in line it seems you can short very far below it.

If Mr. B is going long at 0.8 BitUSD selling 10 000 BTSX for $10 000 they will make an easy $2500 profit if the peg comes back in line at 1-1

However by going short at 0.8  I now have the option to buy 10 000 BTSX at a later date for $12 500 worth of BTSX (the cost if the peg comes back in line) But I think the BTSX price will double or triple making those 10 000 BTSX worth $20 000-$30 000 so it's an easy trade to short at 0.8 BitUSD if no-one is willing to go long higher than that.

As I said I've never shorted anything, what am I missing?
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on August 25, 2014, 04:18:54 am
If any motherfucker dares to short at $0.7 I will eat his collateral like a mama bear eats baby bear hunters

 :) I'll take that to mean I've misunderstood something here and that even if I'm really bullish on BTSX, besides damaging the peg, I shouldn't be willing to short too far below it if there are no longs at BitUSD 1-1

 Edit As an example. I think I'm very bad with this stuff, I may not understand it...

If you think BTSX will double or triple in value in the short term like most of us do, even if you think the peg will come back in line it seems you can short very far below it.

If Mr. B is going long at 0.8 BitUSD selling 10 000 BTSX for $10 000 they will make an easy $2500 profit if the peg comes back in line at 1-1

However by going short at 0.8  I now have the option to buy 10 000 BTSX at a later date for $12 500 worth of BTSX (the cost if the peg comes back in line) But I think the BTSX price will double or triple making those 10 000 BTSX worth $20 000-$30 000 so it's an easy trade to short at 0.8 BitUSD if no-one is willing to go long higher than that.

As I said I've never shorted anything, what am I missing?
I to am not getting it as I am thinking like you are. I believe in time that bitusd will peg close to actual USD. So if I can pick up some underpriced bitusd why not take easy profit and wait for a correction to buy back into btsx. Don't get me wrong I think btsx is going to rock in the next month let alone two. But the way I understand it you could profit either way.

The more I read the more I just say, "buy more btsx, and let the traders do the trading". I don't want to be a trader I just want to be the bank.....
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Riverhead on August 25, 2014, 04:24:18 am
If any motherfucker dares to short at $0.7 I will eat his collateral like a mama bear eats baby bear hunters


Oh snap!
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: jae208 on August 25, 2014, 04:45:56 am
I'm willing to short at $0.45..






jk
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: bytemaster on August 25, 2014, 02:49:50 pm
The premium for shorting below the peg will be proportional to the interest rate paid for going long....  the farther from the peg, the higher the effective interest rate.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: vegolino on August 25, 2014, 02:57:41 pm
Quote
If any motherfucker dares to short at $0.7 I will eat his collateral like a mama bear eats baby bear hunters

This reminds me of opening scene in  Pulp Fiction, very funny  :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7boL2J7ZuDM
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 03:02:04 pm
The premium for shorting below the peg will be proportional to the interest rate paid for going long....  the farther from the peg, the higher the effective interest rate.

Yes this is kind of my understanding. I was just worried BTSX bulls would be willing to pay such a high interest rate to short right now it could move the price too far away from the peg but hopefully it will be fine.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: bytemaster on August 25, 2014, 03:10:26 pm
The premium for shorting below the peg will be proportional to the interest rate paid for going long....  the farther from the peg, the higher the effective interest rate.

Yes this is kind of my understanding. I was just worried BTSX bulls would be willing to pay such a high interest rate to short right now it could move the price too far away from the peg but hopefully it will be fine.

I think it will be tempered against the risks of an unproven market.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 03:12:09 pm
The premium for shorting below the peg will be proportional to the interest rate paid for going long....  the farther from the peg, the higher the effective interest rate.

Yes this is kind of my understanding. I was just worried BTSX bulls would be willing to pay such a high interest rate to short right now it could move the price too far away from the peg but hopefully it will be fine.

I think it will be tempered against the risks of an unproven market.

 +5%
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: mf-tzo on August 25, 2014, 03:22:47 pm
Are you guys implying that no one will short bitusd below i.e. $0.45 - $0.7?  that is x10 - x20 the usd/btsx current price and you are saying that no one will be doing that because bitusd is not proven to peg the usd? or i misunderstand something? because if this is what we are discussing here I hate to be a spoiler but if this was the case no one would be selling now at these prices and unfortunately people do sell..

Of course as my good friend Toast said:
Quote
If any motherfucker dares to short at $0.7 I will eat his collateral like a mama bear eats baby bear hunters

so if that statement holds that will be nice...
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Xeldal on August 25, 2014, 03:30:46 pm
I think they are referencing USD/bitUSD.  $.70 per bitUSD.  30 cents below where the peg should be.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Riverhead on August 25, 2014, 04:47:42 pm
IT'S ON! :D



Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: mf-tzo on August 25, 2014, 07:48:43 pm
Quote
I think they are referencing USD/bitUSD.  $.70 per bitUSD.  30 cents below where the peg should be.

Yes obviously...I was at work and just read it quickly so I missunderstood...I am also a bit slow  ::)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Empirical1 on August 26, 2014, 06:56:22 pm
More related to BitUSD manipulation than price but...

It seems the use of leverage gives big players a greater incentive to engage in price manipulation with BitUSD/BTSX?

The hurdle new users have to overcome when first registering an account potentially encourages new users & speculators to leave more BTSX on the two large exchanges than there should be.

This creates a significant hack/theft and now manipulation risk.

I think BTSX should be actively encouraging people to keep BTSX in their wallets and off the exchanges even more than others and yet our current model does the opposite.

Poloniex apparently has some initial wallet funding assistance, I think we should encourage BTC38 and bter to implement a similar feature too?
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: mf-tzo on August 26, 2014, 07:07:52 pm
Totally agree with this... This is very dangerous. If there is a big theft from the exchanges then we are f..cked and I doubt we will ever recover since it is still very early stages..

On the other hand the client crashes very often and people may be concerned about how secure are the BitsharesX client. Especially newbies like me...I think we need reassurances that security wise it is more secure to keep our funds within the BitshaesX.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: xeroc on August 26, 2014, 07:09:51 pm
Brian organized a "How To Use The Wallet" - webinar with already 1000 users registered
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7254.new#new
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Riverhead on August 26, 2014, 07:23:28 pm
Brian organized a "How To Use The Wallet" - webinar with already 1000 users registered
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7254.new#new (https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7254.new#new)


Nice! I signed up for my wife and I to watch.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Empirical1.1 on September 04, 2014, 11:42:46 pm
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: donkeypong on September 05, 2014, 12:29:13 am
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Empirical1.1 on September 05, 2014, 12:42:08 am
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.

I'm in the same non-techie boat  :) and while I look forward to a more stable client it won't really help the peg like they hope imo.

For me, the most obvious example is BitBTC

Why would anyone buy BitBTC @1-1 in BTSX without an incentive?

They would then have BTSX failure/bug risk. They may not be able to re-sell BitBTC @ 1-1. They have to pay trading fees as well as the same conversion fee to real BTC as if they just sent BTSX to an exchange.

So it's obvious to me incentives will have to be added. The good news is shorts are willing to do that atm & BitBTC with incentives is a game changer  8)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on September 05, 2014, 02:49:47 am
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.

I'm in the same non-techie boat  :) and while I look forward to a more stable client it won't really help the peg like they hope imo.

For me, the most obvious example is BitBTC

Why would anyone buy BitBTC @1-1 in BTSX without an incentive?

They would then have BTSX failure/bug risk. They may not be able to re-sell BitBTC @ 1-1. They have to pay trading fees as well as the same conversion fee to real BTC as if they just sent BTSX to an exchange.

So it's obvious to me incentives will have to be added. The good news is shorts are willing to do that atm & BitBTC with incentives is a game changer  8)
Your points are valid and well supported. Right now their doesn't seem to be much demand for asset's and I think you are very correct in your interest incentive argument.
Not sure about the marketcap part though, I would actually expect a price drop if interest is not impleneted or something major like a payment gateway doesn't happen. Don't get me wrong I am very bullish for the future and don't think interest should be rushed into but in Cryptos everything seems to be going up or down not much room for stagnation. Instead of a ebb and flow of price raising and falling it seems to look more like spikes followed by sharp drop offs.

Short term priceprediction of .022 a share unless interest is added or a payment gateway.
How low do you think we will go?
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: donkeypong on September 05, 2014, 04:08:48 am
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.

I'm in the same non-techie boat  :) and while I look forward to a more stable client it won't really help the peg like they hope imo.

For me, the most obvious example is BitBTC

Why would anyone buy BitBTC @1-1 in BTSX without an incentive?

They would then have BTSX failure/bug risk. They may not be able to re-sell BitBTC @ 1-1. They have to pay trading fees as well as the same conversion fee to real BTC as if they just sent BTSX to an exchange.

So it's obvious to me incentives will have to be added. The good news is shorts are willing to do that atm & BitBTC with incentives is a game changer  8)

I agree completely.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: bytemaster on September 05, 2014, 07:10:55 pm
In the current implementation merchants accepting BitUSD at parity are paying a "fee", the "spread" that is similar to credit cards.

We are implementing rewards for BitUSD that will generate a positive yield for holding it.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: oldman on September 05, 2014, 07:16:35 pm

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.



Can confirm I tapped out at 0.3 something. I think many, many investors are in the wings waiting to hear positive feedback on a stable platform.

Once the platform is stable we will likely see volumes increase tremendously.

Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Riverhead on September 05, 2014, 07:47:35 pm
0.4.12 has been amazing and since it's the first version to implement true deterministic keys by account I feel it's the most stable and safest client to date. It hasn't crashed on me once (Win8.1, Win7, Ubuntu 14.04) and I've been enjoying re-balancing my wallets now that keys are deterministic.


That said, and more on tipic, what about the price of bitCNY? When do we open that market? I feel the client is stable, the feeds are in place...is there something we're waiting for?
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on September 13, 2014, 12:23:00 am
bitUSD is trading even higher then it was before because of the the adding of interest. Any predictions how long it will take for it to HOLD a price over 1$? I have seen it happening a few times on bter but then it creeps back down.

bitCNY seems to be where all the action is, although I still don't understand why we are getting so much Chinese interest but very very little from the rest of the world, any thoughts on this? I have to be honest it makes me slightly nervous to see one exchange trade 65-75% of the total volume.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: cryptillionaire on September 13, 2014, 04:37:11 pm
bitUSD is trading even higher then it was before because of the the adding of interest. Any predictions how long it will take for it to HOLD a price over 1$? I have seen it happening a few times on bter but then it creeps back down.

bitCNY seems to be where all the action is, although I still don't understand why we are getting so much Chinese interest but very very little from the rest of the world, any thoughts on this? I have to be honest it makes me slightly nervous to see one exchange trade 65-75% of the total volume.
I think it's because btc38's a really good looking chinese exchange.. first up they can comment on cryptos http://www.btc38.com/altcoin/btsx/?c=1
Then there's this site dedicated to bitshares: http://www.bts.hk/ we've not really got an equivelant yet.. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bts.hk%2F&edit-text=
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on September 13, 2014, 05:10:30 pm
bitUSD is trading even higher then it was before because of the the adding of interest. Any predictions how long it will take for it to HOLD a price over 1$? I have seen it happening a few times on bter but then it creeps back down.

bitCNY seems to be where all the action is, although I still don't understand why we are getting so much Chinese interest but very very little from the rest of the world, any thoughts on this? I have to be honest it makes me slightly nervous to see one exchange trade 65-75% of the total volume.
I think it's because btc38's a really good looking chinese exchange.. first up they can comment on cryptos http://www.btc38.com/altcoin/btsx/?c=1
Then there's this site dedicated to bitshares: http://www.bts.hk/ we've not really got an equivelant yet.. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bts.hk%2F&edit-text=
I get everything you are saying but WHY such high high Chinese interest and a complete lack of interest from the rest of the world btsx/cny trading make up between 70-80% of total total 24hr volume. When you look at the second highest 24 hour volume(btsx/btc it changes exchanges to bter(a high fee exchange). Btc transaction's are how most of the rest of the world gets into btsx. What I am trying to say is the market seems almost totally supported by one Chinese exchange exchange(btc38) and one pairing btsx/cny.Am I concerned about nothing, does this bother anyone else?
 
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: roadscape on September 13, 2014, 05:19:55 pm
I get everything you are saying but WHY such high high Chinese interest and a complete lack of interest from the rest of the world btsx/cny trading make up between 70-80% of total total 24hr volume. When you look at the second highest 24 hour volume(btsx/btc it changes exchanges to bter(a high fee exchange). Btc transaction's are how most of the rest of the world gets into btsx. What I am trying to say is the market seems almost totally supported by one Chinese exchange exchange(btc38) and one pairing btsx/cny.Am I concerned about nothing, does this bother anyone else?
 

Which parts of the world are lacking BTSX interest?

China has 4x the population of the U.S., and worldwide, Mandarin has 2.5x more speakers than English.

They have a fairly lively community here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?board=4.0

And if you look at Bitcoin markets, you'll see that approx 70% of the BTC trading volume is in CNY.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/

Doesn't seem crazy to me.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Riverhead on September 13, 2014, 05:28:42 pm
We need to look at volume per capita not gross.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on September 13, 2014, 05:39:54 pm
I get everything you are saying but WHY such high high Chinese interest and a complete lack of interest from the rest of the world btsx/cny trading make up between 70-80% of total total 24hr volume. When you look at the second highest 24 hour volume(btsx/btc it changes exchanges to bter(a high fee exchange). Btc transaction's are how most of the rest of the world gets into btsx. What I am trying to say is the market seems almost totally supported by one Chinese exchange exchange(btc38) and one pairing btsx/cny.Am I concerned about nothing, does this bother anyone else?
 

Which parts of the world are lacking BTSX interest?

China has 4x the population of the U.S., and worldwide, Mandarin has 2.5x more speakers than English.

They have a fairly lively community here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?board=4.0

And if you look at Bitcoin markets, you'll see that approx 70% of the BTC trading volume is in CNY.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/

Doesn't seem crazy to me.
Here is the current numbers on btc and is pairings

#   Source   Pair   Volume (24h)   Price   Volume (%)   Updated
1   BitcoinAverage   BTC/USD   $ 9,511,380   $ 481.41   59.92 %   Recently
2   BitcoinAverage   BTC/CNY   $ 5,399,340   $ 477.96   34.02 %   Recently
3   BitcoinAverage   BTC/EUR   $ 597,300   $ 485.14   3.76 %   Recently
4   BitcoinAverage   BTC/GBP   $ 164,622   $ 489.51   1.04 %   Recently
5   BitcoinAverage   BTC/RUB   $ 104,037   $ 498.83   0.66 %   Recently
6   BitcoinAverage   BTC/CAD   $ 96,500   $ 481.65   0.61 %   Recently

as you can see USD is the leader followed by CNY then EUR
This above chart looks like a "healthy" global interest. It is not bad that we have great Chinese interest but I am pointing out why the lack of interest from the rest of the world. Perhaps its because we are young? Different marketing strategy between what is done on the Chinese side vs the rest of the world?  I am trying to identify a possible short coming then perhaps we can focus on correcting it.
do you have any idea the volume per capita? Because I don't but I do agree it would be a more accurate representation.
We need to look at volume per capita not gross.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Riverhead on September 13, 2014, 05:41:24 pm
Maybe most of the world just trades in USD because it's been a "standard" for so long.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on September 13, 2014, 05:46:35 pm
Maybe most of the world just trades in USD because it's been a "standard" for so long.
I agree and thats probably true, but why is btsx not following that same  path? TBH I only have 2 ideas
1.A different marketing strategy is being used to focus on that area of the world and it is working with great success, because the people are "getting it"
2.The numbers being produced by btc38 are heavily inflated or manipulated in some sort of way.
I can no explain such a wide gap any other way but I am open to other thoughts. I should also note that I want to believe it is option 1 because this can be fixed.   
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: roadscape on September 13, 2014, 08:21:12 pm
Here is the current numbers on btc and is pairings

#   Source   Pair   Volume (24h)   Price   Volume (%)   Updated
1   BitcoinAverage   BTC/USD   $ 9,511,380   $ 481.41   59.92 %   Recently
2   BitcoinAverage   BTC/CNY   $ 5,399,340   $ 477.96   34.02 %   Recently
3   BitcoinAverage   BTC/EUR   $ 597,300   $ 485.14   3.76 %   Recently
4   BitcoinAverage   BTC/GBP   $ 164,622   $ 489.51   1.04 %   Recently
5   BitcoinAverage   BTC/RUB   $ 104,037   $ 498.83   0.66 %   Recently
6   BitcoinAverage   BTC/CAD   $ 96,500   $ 481.65   0.61 %   Recently

as you can see USD is the leader followed by CNY then EUR
This above chart looks like a "healthy" global interest. It is not bad that we have great Chinese interest but I am pointing out why the lack of interest from the rest of the world. Perhaps its because we are young? Different marketing strategy between what is done on the Chinese side vs the rest of the world?  I am trying to identify a possible short coming then perhaps we can focus on correcting it.

BitcoinAverage excludes two very large BTC exchanges because they have a 0% trading fee.

Here's a recent article: CoinDesk: Yuan Trades Now Make Up Over 70% of Bitcoin Volume (http://www.coindesk.com/yuan-trades-now-make-70-bitcoin-volume/)
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: Gentso1 on September 13, 2014, 10:49:07 pm
Here is the current numbers on btc and is pairings

#   Source   Pair   Volume (24h)   Price   Volume (%)   Updated
1   BitcoinAverage   BTC/USD   $ 9,511,380   $ 481.41   59.92 %   Recently
2   BitcoinAverage   BTC/CNY   $ 5,399,340   $ 477.96   34.02 %   Recently
3   BitcoinAverage   BTC/EUR   $ 597,300   $ 485.14   3.76 %   Recently
4   BitcoinAverage   BTC/GBP   $ 164,622   $ 489.51   1.04 %   Recently
5   BitcoinAverage   BTC/RUB   $ 104,037   $ 498.83   0.66 %   Recently
6   BitcoinAverage   BTC/CAD   $ 96,500   $ 481.65   0.61 %   Recently

as you can see USD is the leader followed by CNY then EUR
This above chart looks like a "healthy" global interest. It is not bad that we have great Chinese interest but I am pointing out why the lack of interest from the rest of the world. Perhaps its because we are young? Different marketing strategy between what is done on the Chinese side vs the rest of the world?  I am trying to identify a possible short coming then perhaps we can focus on correcting it.

BitcoinAverage excludes two very large BTC exchanges because they have a 0% trading fee.

Here's a recent article: CoinDesk: Yuan Trades Now Make Up Over 70% of Bitcoin Volume (http://www.coindesk.com/yuan-trades-now-make-70-bitcoin-volume/)
That sir explains alot. Thanks for posting it has given me a better understanding and would make complete sense.
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: mf-tzo on September 14, 2014, 09:33:51 am
I am personally interested in bitEur but I trade Bitusd and the reason is mostly because I use external platforms  BTCUSD converted in Euros when deposited in my account.

For some reason I don't like Kraken. No specific reason I just haven't tried it... So when I want to get out of BTC I trade in USD and the bank converts them in euro with a bad rate and a lot of fees...

Hopefully in the future we will have easy gateways directly to our bank accounts and the transition from biteur to euro will be with a click of a button. Additionally we shouldn't have any fear from hackers, keyloggers etc..When this day comes BTSX will be worth +200 billions..

P.S: That was my 500th post!!!hehehehe...
 
Title: Re: bitUSD price
Post by: xeroc on September 14, 2014, 09:42:34 am
I am personally interested in bitEur but I trade Bitusd and the reason is
mostly because I use external platforms  BTCUSD converted in Euros when
deposited in my account.
Dito

For some reason I don't like Kraken. No specific reason I just haven't tried
it... So when I want to get out of BTC I trade in USD and the bank converts
them in euro with a bad rate and a lot of fees...
You should really give it a try .. verification sucks and takes some time
(hours, not days) and with SEPA withdrawals are smooth and quick!

Hopefully in the future we will have easy gateways directly to our bank
accounts and the transition from biteur to euro will be with a click of a
button. Additionally we shouldn't have any fear from hackers, keyloggers
etc..When this day comes BTSX will be worth +200 billions..
There is a cooperation between Kraken and the Munich bank FIDOR .. not sure but
I thought they plan to join forces towards a easier EUR<->BTC exchange .. Not
up-to-date though

P.S: That was my 500th post!!!hehehehe...
Congratulations .. !! +5%