BitShares Forum

Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: bluebit on January 04, 2015, 02:01:39 am

Title: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: bluebit on January 04, 2015, 02:01:39 am
How do we break away from Bitcoin and become #1?

Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: NineLives on January 04, 2015, 02:06:40 am
Good question.  Bitcoin seems to be dropping and as I watch I'm hoping for it to rise again.  A full year passes and all I see is a continued drop.

How does this relate to my new Bitshares world?  Are we suffering due to bitcoin's continued decline?
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: bluebit on January 04, 2015, 02:16:09 am
I think maybe the real question is... who is selling and why? I'm sure not selling, but I have a theory why EVERY SINGLE CRYPTO is going down at the same time, and it's not because everybody is selling, it's market manipulation. I think it's the bankers/elite/government, they have lots of money they probably have Chinese people buying all the cryptos in small amounts over time at a certain price, then they tell them to sell them all at the same time, lowering the price, effectively destroying confidence in the market.

or it's just people being stupid
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: Empirical1.1 on January 04, 2015, 02:24:02 am
BitCoin needs to pay out $30 million + a month to miners just to sustain it's current CAP not easy in a bear market. It's also a victim of it's own success. The more utility it gains and the more people spend it, the more downward pressure is created as retailers don't hold it due to volatility. So a sale in Bitcoin almost equates to sale of Bitcoin.

BitShares has low inflation costs and retailers will be likely to hold BitAssets more due to their low volatility, privacy and that they pay interest. As each BitAsset requires 300% collateral to create, unlike Bitcoin a little BitAsset demand goes a long way.

BTSX pre-dilution discussions, would already be in XRP territory and ready for the assualt imo.

These last few months have cost us. Our goal now is to get 1.0 out and everything required to use & integrate BitAssets as simple as possible and then market the shit out of it.

Once we rise over $100 million and pass LTC etc. We are the next decentralised alternative to Bitcoin in line for the throne at a stage when Bitcoin is weak. So it's still all to play for.

Crypto is in a bear market, but if we had the demand and interest that Bitcoin has we would be thriving because of low inflation and the nature of BitAssets.

Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: NineLives on January 04, 2015, 02:32:22 am
BitCoin needs to pay out $30 million + a month to miners just to sustain it's current CAP not easy in a bear market. It's also a victim of it's own success. The more utility it gains and the more people spend it, the more downward pressure is created as retailers don't hold it due to volatility. So a sale in Bitcoin almost equates to sale of Bitcoin.

BitShares has low inflation costs and retailers will be likely to hold BitAssets more due to their low volatility, privacy and that they pay interest. As each BitAsset requires 300% collateral to create, unlike Bitcoin a little BitAsset demand goes a long way.

BTSX pre-dilution discussions, would already be in XRP territory and ready for the assualt imo.

These last few months have cost us. Our goal now is to get 1.0 out and everything required to use & integrate BitAssets as simple as possible and then market the shit out of it.

Once we rise over $100 million and pass LTC etc. We are the next decentralised alternative to Bitcoin in line for the throne at a stage when Bitcoin is weak. So it's still all to play for.

Crypto is in a bear market, but if we had the demand and interest that Bitcoin has we would be thriving because of low inflation and the nature of BitAssets.

Great explanation.  Give this man a cookie!!!
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: charleshoskinson on January 04, 2015, 03:02:29 am
It's the gox loot guys. The police are getting closer to the fraud and the backers are dumping the stolen coins. Over 600k of them.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: Empirical1.1 on January 04, 2015, 03:22:46 am
It's the gox loot guys. The police are getting closer to the fraud and the backers are dumping the stolen coins. Over 600k of them.

Is that true?

The sudden fall is just as likely the result of passing through a key psychological & trading support level of $300 at the start of a New Year when people are re-evaluating their positions and seeing Bitcoin's poor 2014 performance.

A similar thing happened with LiteCoin passing $100 million last week, a slow descent turns into a rapid one.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: charleshoskinson on January 04, 2015, 03:24:01 am
http://www.coindesk.com/missing-mt-gox-bitcoins-inside-job-japanese-police/
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: Empirical1.1 on January 04, 2015, 03:33:37 am
http://www.coindesk.com/missing-mt-gox-bitcoins-inside-job-japanese-police/

Are you saying the guys who stole the coins originally are dumping them? I would have thought they'd have dumped them already.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: charleshoskinson on January 04, 2015, 03:44:30 am
Dump 600k coins in a bear market? You have to slowly make love to that stolen booty unless forced.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: werneo on January 04, 2015, 04:05:17 am
Not sure about the argument that the Mt Gox perps are feeling a sudden need to liquidate. How much easier is it to hide btc than USD, EUR or whatever? Why move the funds around at all? If you are the perp, it's best to keep absolutely still and pretend you don't know anything about it. Keep the keys in a brain wallet and hope for the best. If they get caught and imprisoned, they'll have to remember their brain wallet password until they are released from the slammer.

I'm guessing we're are in the end phases of the year-long bear market. The crescendo might be a dramatic but brief drop under the April 2013 high (<$260). Then hopefully the bear will take a nice long nap and we can watch the bull run around for a while.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: roadscape on January 04, 2015, 07:37:20 am
Dump 600k coins in a bear market? You have to slowly make love to that stolen booty unless forced.

 +5%
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: CLains on January 04, 2015, 08:23:18 am
600k is an incredible amount, $168 million at $280 per Bitcoin...
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: Shentist on January 04, 2015, 08:37:00 am
i hope anyone knows, that no one can or will know why crypto is in a bearmarket.

if you believe in crypto, now is the time to buy more, because now you can get bitcoin 15% cheaper then 2 days before.
Don't watch or depend everyday on the exchange price.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: yellowecho on January 04, 2015, 08:49:19 am
Most likely selling to report tax losses.  :P
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: bytemaster on January 04, 2015, 08:50:35 am
Most likely selling to report tax losses.  :P

A few days too late for that... more likely selling to cover taxes due.

Fortunately we have sold the last of our BTC in the 330 range. 
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: vlight on January 04, 2015, 02:29:50 pm
https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

This guy pretty much nailed it. I hope the bear market ends today  :D
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: speedy on January 04, 2015, 02:54:32 pm
Im so bored of hearing the theory "market manipulation". The reason Bitcoin is in a bear market is that at current prices, the market cannot absorb the 3600 new coins per day, or $1080000 at $300 per coin.

The sooner the Bitcoin lemmings realise this, the sooner we can move on to crypto with proper economics.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: busygin on January 04, 2015, 03:01:26 pm
Im so bored of hearing the theory "market manipulation". The reason Bitcoin is in a bear market is that at current prices, the market cannot absorb the 3600 new coins per day, or $1080000 at $300 per coin.
+5%
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: santaclause102 on January 04, 2015, 03:01:52 pm
https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

This guy pretty much nailed it. I hope the bear market ends today  :D
Can you translate that for me?
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: vlight on January 04, 2015, 03:25:44 pm
https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

This guy pretty much nailed it. I hope the bear market ends today  :D
Can you translate that for me?
Just load new bars on the chart, you will see that his prediction was accurate. Now the question is whether the current support will hold, and if this is the beginning of the new bull market.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: santaclause102 on January 04, 2015, 03:30:35 pm
https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

This guy pretty much nailed it. I hope the bear market ends today  :D
Can you translate that for me?
Just load new bars on the chart, you will see that his prediction was accurate. Now the question is whether the current support will hold, and if this is the beginning of the new bull market.
does he make predictions that go beyond today?
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: Gentso1 on January 04, 2015, 03:36:10 pm
Im so bored of hearing the theory "market manipulation". The reason Bitcoin is in a bear market is that at current prices, the market cannot absorb the 3600 new coins per day, or $1080000 at $300 per coin.

The sooner the Bitcoin lemmings realise this, the sooner we can move on to crypto with proper economics.

With millions and millions of dollars invested in bitcoin and bitcoin related businesses I think it short sighted to think it will just go away.

The exodus of from bitcoin will be slow and probably have more then one of these cycles. What I am looking for is how much bitcoins market shrinks and if any of the 2.0's are able to grow during

these times. That would signal a shift.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/A1mFwkEG/

This guy pretty much nailed it. I hope the bear market ends today  :D
Can you translate that for me?
Just load new bars on the chart, you will see that his prediction was accurate. Now the question is whether the current support will hold, and if this is the beginning of the new bull market.
does he make predictions that go beyond today?

Pick a chart any chart.......https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/)
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: triox on January 04, 2015, 03:49:06 pm
I have a rule regarding "predictions":

All claims about sufficiently complicated chaotic future are fraudulent. It's impossible to predict outcomes outside of one's immediate control. We just keep telling ourselves that we can guess the future because prediction is the primary function of the neocortex and it was evolutionary advantageous to make random predictions than none at all.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: wesphily on January 04, 2015, 04:13:24 pm
I have a rule regarding "predictions":

All claims about sufficiently complicated chaotic future are fraudulent. It's impossible to predict outcomes outside of one's immediate control. We just keep telling ourselves that we can guess the future because prediction is the primary function of the neocortex and it was evolutionary advantageous to make random predictions than none at all.

I can guess a future with 100% accuracy until the mold is broken.............If btc is falling then ltc will fall and most alt coins. Only a onzie twozie alt coin will perform against bitcoin.

Why? In order to cash out you have to go through bitcoin which makes bitcoin the index. If you watch S&P 500 you will see that even the best performing stocks will pennant off when a bad drop is happening to the index.

If you ever see bitshares or some other 2.0 coin clearly go up against bitcoin going down then my prediction will no longer be valid. Till then, btc rules them all.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: Ander on January 04, 2015, 06:02:51 pm
Most likely selling to report tax losses.  :P

A few days too late for that... more likely selling to cover taxes due.

Fortunately we have sold the last of our BTC in the 330 range.

Time to buy it back now! ;)  Or buy BTS!
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: donkeypong on January 04, 2015, 07:48:49 pm
Thanks to temporarily cheap energy, the U.S. dollar is killing everything else right now. Gold, oil, BTC: these commodities are all following fairly similar paths.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: chryspano on January 04, 2015, 08:22:13 pm
What if some traders (hard core bitcoiners) on normal days are buying and trading all major crypto and when bitcoin crashes they dump all the "altcoins" they have to increase their btc holdings?  can this method of trading be also a safety mechanism for bitcoin? What would happen if this bitoin crash was at the same time with the ripple rally a few weeks ago? bitcoin panic?
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: triox on January 06, 2015, 03:11:29 pm
I have a rule regarding "predictions":

All claims about sufficiently complicated chaotic future are fraudulent.
If btc is falling then ltc will fall and most alt coins.

This doesn't tell me anything about the future, it's not a prediction.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: wesphily on January 06, 2015, 06:02:55 pm
I have a rule regarding "predictions":

All claims about sufficiently complicated chaotic future are fraudulent.
If btc is falling then ltc will fall and most alt coins.

This doesn't tell me anything about the future, it's not a prediction.

I predict that if bitcoin goes down then ltc will go down with it. That is a prediction. If you plan to further argue the definition of prediction then say your piece. I don't plan to further respond on the matter.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: vlight on January 11, 2015, 08:09:55 pm
(http://baltimorepostexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/Train-Wreck-620x310.jpg)
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: Ander on January 11, 2015, 08:44:27 pm
We should have a bottom within the next week, but bitcoin could drop into the 230s or so first. 

Based on Ryan and Chessnut's EW counts, we are in the fifth and final part of and endind diagonal which is the final move of the bear.  This move started last weekend and continues now. 
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: donkeypong on January 11, 2015, 08:53:25 pm
With all due respect, those models depend on volume. I question whether they can predict meaningful trends on something as thinly traded and subject to manipulation by a handful of market participants. My prediction: we get a functional client and we're off to the races. Until then, it probably won't move too much; how it does is anyone's guess. But if you're predicting upward movement, I'm always glad to hear it!
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: starspirit on January 11, 2015, 10:02:16 pm
Every market goes through swings in sentiment. The only reason that the mined BTC coming to market, or retailers selling BTC, or anything else is an issue right now (as opposed to 14 months ago) is because sentiment is moving in the opposite direction. In late 2013, this was no issue at all because sentiment was on a massive upswing. Its the same sentiment cycle affecting all coins together, no manipulation required.

In my view, every day that BTC survives is a day that makes it stronger on the path toward a mainstream crypto-money. Investors then regular people will come more and more to believe in the security of the BTC block chain. Anecdotally, the amount of venture capital now looking in that direction is tremendous, and this investment will improve the utility of the network and ecosystem. In this context, volatility is a growing pain on the path to become mainstream. Volatility is not an innate property of any coin - it simply reflects the maturity of the market. We can't know for sure if BTC will be the one to get there first, but at this point, even deep into a bear market, there are no clear contenders close to rivalling BTC.

So I am not one to write off BTC just yet because of bear market. However there is still an opportunity for leadership change. If BTS or any other coin is to vie for this position, it must unambiguously demonstrate its added value to users and potential investors in the VC community, but there is a window of opportunity to prove this out before the growing network effects carve out all the secondary contenders.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: triox on January 14, 2015, 12:19:48 pm
I predict that if bitcoin goes down then ltc will go down with it. That is a prediction.

Again, you're not telling us anything about the future. You may claim that there's some link between both prices but you still don't know the future price of neither. You can observe that "today Bitcoin went down and without looking I predict that Litecoin went down also" but this is only applicable to the present and the past.
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: vlight on January 14, 2015, 12:28:38 pm
While cryptos are being slaughtered, maybe this chart will work for guessing the future, someone will have to get it right eventually, lol

https://www.tradingview.com/v/8ss69KFu/
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: donkeypong on January 14, 2015, 06:52:11 pm
"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

Warren Buffett

Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: abelljefrry on January 14, 2015, 07:07:45 pm
While cryptos are being slaughtered, maybe this chart will work for guessing the future, someone will have to get it right eventually, lol

https://www.tradingview.com/v/8ss69KFu/

(http://th04.deviantart.net/fs70/200H/f/2012/151/9/f/just_as_planned_by_whisper1236-d51tyw5.jpg)
Title: Re: So Bitcoin seems to be taking Bitshares down with it...
Post by: Akado on January 14, 2015, 08:40:59 pm
actually if we have a small rebound, all this fear of loss might turn in fear of missing out the next spike so people might just start panic buying turning the market bullish. that's a lot of "if"s but that's how people think