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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: matt608 on October 28, 2014, 11:00:54 am

Title: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: matt608 on October 28, 2014, 11:00:54 am
On coinmarketcap today I saw the bitUSD market cap went up from around $380,000 to over $1million, what's going on there?
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: svk on October 28, 2014, 11:24:00 am
There was some huge shorting action yesterday that more than tripled the current supply of bitUSD.

http://bitsharesblocks.com/blocks/block?id=858831

PS. I'm not sure about the price ratios etc of asset transactions after all the recent changes to shorting mechanics, I'm gonna have to go over them and make sure everything is still correct. Anyway the short answer is lots of shorting happened, so market cap went up.
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: 天籁 on October 28, 2014, 11:38:08 am

Short    44.4745   34,240,435.40141    769,889.159

Bid        43.5169   16,101,215.99579    369,999.4489
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: matt608 on October 28, 2014, 12:03:08 pm
There was some huge shorting action yesterday that more than tripled the current supply of bitUSD.

http://bitsharesblocks.com/blocks/block?id=858831

PS. I'm not sure about the price ratios etc of asset transactions after all the recent changes to shorting mechanics, I'm gonna have to go over them and make sure everything is still correct. Anyway the short answer is lots of shorting happened, so market cap went up.

Ok so these bitUSD which have been shorted are mostly still for sale? (trying to understand).  It's not new money flowing in to bitUSD, it's someone who already had a big position in BTSX borrowing bitUSD and then putting up for sale i.e. shorting bitUSD, with the believe that BTSX would go down and they would be able to buy them back for a smaller amount of BTSX than they paid to borrow them?  It's happened on the same day as a big dump  went down on bter.  Could it be the same person deliberately planning to dump BTSX to profit from shorting bitUSD?  What is the likely cause of this action?

Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: mf-tzo on October 28, 2014, 12:08:31 pm
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: matt608 on October 28, 2014, 12:10:38 pm
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken. 
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: Chuckone on October 28, 2014, 12:12:05 pm
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: matt608 on October 28, 2014, 12:17:35 pm
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

Ok so the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is because someone thinks BTSX will rise, but someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they?  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not that any new money/users are entering?
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: Chuckone on October 28, 2014, 12:25:57 pm
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

So the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is just because someone thinks BTSX will rise?  But someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they.  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not necessarily that any new money is entering?

Until there are on/off-ramps from fiat to bitUSD, each bitUSD created from shorts must be bought using BTSX on the Bitshares-X trading platform. So my understanding would be that any matched short definitely doesn't mean new money came in. The only way to have new money coming in the ecosystem would be through BTSX on the centralized exchanges. I'm no market expert, but that would be my interpretation.
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: matt608 on October 28, 2014, 12:28:24 pm
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

So the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is just because someone thinks BTSX will rise?  But someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they.  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not necessarily that any new money is entering?

Until there are on/off-ramps from fiat to bitUSD, each bitUSD created from shorts must be bought using BTSX on the Bitshares-X trading platform. So my understanding would be that any matched short definitely doesn't mean new money came in. The only way to have new money coming in the ecosystem would be through BTSX on the centralized exchanges. I'm no market expert, but that would be my interpretation.

Ok that makes sense, thanks.
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: tonyk on October 28, 2014, 01:47:08 pm
Observations:
One huge short (bitUSD) order was placed with relatively low interest rate (but not 0% interest); 5 min later a bitUSD buyer bought
close to 50% of that order worth of bitUSD.


Theory...

-I3 bought themselves about 370,000 BitUSD (in a single transaction, probably more total including some smaller ones);

Why?

- BM has stated that he does his accounting in USD (bitUSD) and is going to pay everybody in bitUSD; so having USDs is not an issue or opinion on the price movement of BTSX;
- Why 370K? This is pretty close to the total amount of all grandfathered shorts ,in my estimate, (so their existence is no longer an issue for the good market peg behavior).
-Why yesterday? Combination of several beneficial conditions - the new versions fixes (supposedly) the wrong yield calculations for the shorts; possibility to short at low interest rate, that the market presented;


Now if the above is all true the observations and questions that remain for me are:
It seems that the increase in the supply of bitUSD happened mainly during the last price drop of BTSX... Why those people still remain in bitUSD? I have several theories (aside from the most obvious one) but none of them is anywhere provable or too interesting.

@Svk - I believe you link is to the opening of a short order not to the execution of one.
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: biophil on October 28, 2014, 02:22:39 pm
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.

Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

So the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is just because someone thinks BTSX will rise?  But someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they.  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not necessarily that any new money is entering?

Until there are on/off-ramps from fiat to bitUSD, each bitUSD created from shorts must be bought using BTSX on the Bitshares-X trading platform. So my understanding would be that any matched short definitely doesn't mean new money came in. The only way to have new money coming in the ecosystem would be through BTSX on the centralized exchanges. I'm no market expert, but that would be my interpretation.

You can buy bitUSD on Bter. Not a great onramp, but onramp no less.

Sent from my SCH-S720C using Tapatalk 2

Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: Chuckone on October 28, 2014, 02:50:18 pm
How dumping BTSX get you profits from shorting bitusd?

My understanding is that if BTSX are dumped their price to usd will fall, so someone shorting bitusd (expecting usd to fall vs. BTSX) will lose.


Oh right yes I'm mistaken.

Someone with a large position is quite bullish about the future value of BTS...

So the big shorting action increasing bitUSD market cap is just because someone thinks BTSX will rise?  But someone had to buy that bitUSD didn't they.  And those people must think BTSX will go down so they buy bitUSD to protect themselves. So overall is increase in bitUSD market cap just means people are hedging, placing their bets within the system, not necessarily that any new money is entering?

Until there are on/off-ramps from fiat to bitUSD, each bitUSD created from shorts must be bought using BTSX on the Bitshares-X trading platform. So my understanding would be that any matched short definitely doesn't mean new money came in. The only way to have new money coming in the ecosystem would be through BTSX on the centralized exchanges. I'm no market expert, but that would be my interpretation.

You can buy bitUSD on Bter. Not a great onramp, but onramp no less.

Sent from my SCH-S720C using Tapatalk 2

True. But with a 24h volume of 0.0BTC, I avoid mentioning it as useable on-ramp ;)
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: marcelus on October 28, 2014, 06:11:44 pm
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: matt608 on October 28, 2014, 06:16:31 pm
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Where has this emerged?
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: svk on October 28, 2014, 06:53:02 pm
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Where has this emerged?

Nowhere, he's making it up.
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: liondani on October 28, 2014, 07:18:15 pm
BM already stated that his intentions are he will buy bitUSDs with 3000 BTC and with that money he will pay salary’s every month... (that way he helps the peg and the bitshares ecosystem)
Of course he will do that in more than one steps... If you check the cold-storages in BTC they have in about more than 20 addresses of 100 BTC each https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqTwk-e7yzJydDFnQmlkTVlkbWpubnJBbzR2UG5ucnc&usp=sharing#gid=0  you will see that about 600 BTC are moved the last days (probably to exchanges to buy btsx they have used for bitUSD shorting and buying back).... Make that sense?
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: marcelus on October 28, 2014, 10:20:34 pm
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Where has this emerged?

Nowhere, he's making it up.

No. No I am not.

https://coinfire.cf/2014/10/27/sec-begins-sending-investigation-letters/

https://www.scribd.com/doc/244670525/Letter-LA-Office
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: svk on October 28, 2014, 10:32:12 pm


It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Where has this emerged?

Nowhere, he's making it up.

No. No I am not.

https://coinfire.cf/2014/10/27/sec-begins-sending-investigation-letters/

https://www.scribd.com/doc/244670525/Letter-LA-Office

Yes, yes you are. Where do you see anything about Bitshares being in the "firing line"?

I agree this isn't great news, but for now I3 and Bitshares have not been targeted..
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: marcelus on October 28, 2014, 10:40:06 pm


It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Where has this emerged?

Nowhere, he's making it up.

No. No I am not.

https://coinfire.cf/2014/10/27/sec-begins-sending-investigation-letters/

https://www.scribd.com/doc/244670525/Letter-LA-Office

Yes, yes you are. Where do you see anything about Bitshares being in the "firing line"?

I agree this isn't great news, but for now I3 and Bitshares have not been targeted..

They're writing to a plethora of people behind crypto IPOs. It's common knowledge in crypto circles that BitsharesX is one of these. They advertised their token as a 'share' and call themselves a decentralised bank. You can be damn sure they're right at the front of the queue. Because it's decentralised and in the wild, it's not a major problem for the protocol long-term, but there may be consequences for some and short-term price instability.   
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: Ander on October 29, 2014, 10:47:41 pm
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Not only is this a lie (about the firing line of SEC investigation), but you have it all backwards.  Someone who would short hundreds of thousands of $ of bitUSD in existence is actually betting that BTSX will soon RISE in price, not fall.

Whoever shorted all of the bitUSD into existence, increasing the supply, is both a whale and is bullish on BTSX.
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: biophil on October 29, 2014, 10:51:49 pm
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Not only is this a lie (about the firing line of SEC investigation), but you have it all backwards.  Someone who would short hundreds of thousands of $ of bitUSD in existence is actually betting that BTSX will soon RISE in price, not fall.

Whoever shorted all of the bitUSD into existence, increasing the supply, is both a whale and is bullish on BTSX.

But someone had to buy all that as well; it seems unlikely that half a million worth of shorts and bids would appear at almost exactly the same time. My bet is that some whale shorted it all to himself.
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: Ander on October 29, 2014, 11:00:47 pm
But someone had to buy all that as well; it seems unlikely that half a million worth of shorts and bids would appear at almost exactly the same time. My bet is that some whale shorted it all to himself.

It seems to me that it is probably someone internal to the dev or marketing team, creating bitUSD for some purpose, like you said.  (Using dev BTSX shares to short, using dev bitcoin funds to buy the bitUSD).  The bitUSD will then be used for...???
Paying team salaries?  Beginning a business partnership they have been working on?


(Or it could just be a bullish BTSX whale looking for leverage matched up with a bearish whale looking to hedge).
Title: Re: bitUSD marketcap
Post by: marcelus on October 30, 2014, 02:21:15 pm
It has emerged Invictus is right in the firing line of a SEC investigation in crypto IPOs. People are putting their money in BitUSD in the expectation that this news will cause the price of BitsharesX to fall without crashing it completely.

Not only is this a lie (about the firing line of SEC investigation), but you have it all backwards.  Someone who would short hundreds of thousands of $ of bitUSD in existence is actually betting that BTSX will soon RISE in price, not fall.

Whoever shorted all of the bitUSD into existence, increasing the supply, is both a whale and is bullish on BTSX.

Time will tell it's not a lie. I wasn't referring to the shorting alluded to above. I was referring to people, like myself, who are shorting BTSX by buying BitUSD with a view to purchasing BTSX later. Going pretty well so far ;)