BitShares Forum
Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: Ander on November 29, 2014, 11:52:59 pm
-
(In this post, I shall channel my inner Stan, and pump bitshares! Lets begin).
Right now, people here are pretty happy with the 20% rise today, but most of us are so used to the bear market of the past 3 months that we are expecting the price to just be beaten down again. We are wondering if we should sell now and rebuy a bit lower. We are imagining this move today as a pump which will be followed by a dump. We are conditioned by months of pain to expect more pain after anything good happens.
During the bear market phase we just suffered through, this thinking would have been correct. We have been conditioned to be bears and to sell every rise.
However, it might be different this time. Really different.
Of course, in a bear market, there are always people who think 'this time it is different', this time, that was the final low, and now we will go up. They think this on every low, but more lows follow.
However, THIS time, there are real, strong, technical reasons to believe that the bear phase is over, FOR REAL, and that a new bull phase has begun! During this bull phase, price will rise RELENTLESSLY, with minimal pullbacks that only serve to trick people into selling and hoping to rebuy lower. They then get left behind as the price goes higher and higher and higher, until they either panic buy back in at higher prices, or are forced onto the sidelines and end up regretting their sell forever.
Do not be shaken off this bull!
The bear attacks you with its claws, delivering painful declines after any rise, but the bull tries to shake you off its back as it moves higher. Now is the time to HODL as hard as you can! Do not sell for your measly 25% gains. If you sell, do so only after LARGE gains. After the price doubles, or triples, or even goes to 10x what it was before! Do not let go of your precious BTS unless the buyers pay you a PREMIUM price in their panic buys!
Here is a very crowded chart, showing all of the bullish developments, and a very, very bullish purple line predicting the future price.
(http://s14.postimg.org/f5pxx7ogh/btsbull.png)
Alright, yes, the purple line is probably too bullish. A much more likely scenario is that this rise takes place over weeks or months, not days.
However, what is picture is clearly possible based on the price action we are seeing. Maybe the chance is only 10-20% or so, but this is not a silly daydream fantasy scenario here. The price chart is telling us that this actually *might* happen. It is one reasonable possibility that might occur, and it is the reason why you absolutely SHOULD NOT be selling and hoping to buy lower here if you are a true believer in Bitshares.
You know how Ripple just tripled in value in the past 2 weeks? Bitshares might be just starting to do exactly the same thing, right now. This is a totally reasonable scenario that a rational person analyzing this price chart could see happening. All of the elements needed for this to occur have happened. The MACD buy signal and the moving average cross and the breaking of the downtrend line and resistance levels, and the rise in buying volume are all occurring right in this timeframe in order to allow this scenario to be possible!
Am I saying this will definitely happen? No, of course not. Is this th emost likely way for things to play out. No, a tamer and slower rise to new all time highs over a period of several months has a higher chance of occuring. A pullback first is still possible, and maybe those that sell and rebuy will get lucky. But if there was ever a time to be all in and hodling as hard as possible, this is the time!
Let us hold our shares tight, and see how high this thing can go.
Let us hold our shares tight, and not let those that sold because of 'dilution' or the merger get their shares back without paying a high price.
Let us hold our shares tight, and be amused at the haters who cannot understand why bitshares is rising so strongly, day after day (just like most of us probably felt about ripple this week).
Let us hold, and watch the price with amazement.
We have suffered, these past two months, but now is our time.
I hope that most of you reading this are like me, and you made sacrifices in order to buy absolutely every bitshare that you could. That you worked overtime, that you sat at home eating ramen noodles, and put every penny you had into BTS. That you counted every dollar you spent these past weeks, and then spend it on BTS instead while we were under 2 cents.
We bought, while those around us sold BTS in tears.
We bought, while those around us mocked BTS, and said the peg had failed.
We bought, while it hurt so badly that we wanted to throw up every time we looked at the price.
NOW WE WILL ALL HODL EVERY SHARE, AND IT WILL BE OUR TIME.
-
I'd say we're looking at weeks, and maybe a few months, not days. But I share your optimism!
-
PSA: You can short most bitassets at 0% right now because most people put price limits which were way higher than now
-
I agree we should all embrace our inner Stan :P
-
I'd say we're looking at weeks, and maybe a few months, not days. But I share your optimism!
I know, this is more likely. But rising in days is at least *possible* right now, so I definitely wouldnt want to be anything but 100% long. :)
I almost feel bad for those who don't have as many BTS as they want right now, because they have a tough choice of having to either panic buy on this rise, or risk missing out. I'm so glad I bought everything I could under 2 cents.
-
All that Ripple profit taking needs to flow somewhere...
-
bet u will be able to buy sub 40mil market cap in the next 2 weeks... Wayyyy too many raving bulls at a lower high
-
bet u will be able to buy sub 40mil market cap in the next 2 weeks... Wayyyy too many raving bulls at a lower high
You may very well be right, we will see.
It takes all of us to make a market, all our competing opinions. :)
-
bet u will be able to buy sub 40mil market cap in the next 2 weeks... Wayyyy too many raving bulls at a lower high
You may very well be right, we will see.
It takes all of us to make a market, all our competing opinions. :)
Not saying I wouldn't love to see it go parabolic though :D
-
The market seems really quiet right now, there is very little going on.
-
The market seems really quiet right now, there is very little going on.
This always happens during the 8 hours that china is asleep.
-
All that Ripple profit taking needs to flow somewhere...
I don't understand why people are trying to make money with Ripple. Yes, it just shot up by a ton and someone could have been well positioned for that bump. But isn't Ripple Labs sitting on something like 90% of their coinage, which it could release at any time? I think I'll pass on Ripple... and stick with BitShares.
-
For Real:PUMP AND DUMP..
(http://ww2.sinaimg.cn/large/005yyi5Jjw1emsrm03zxhj30e40ek783.jpg)
-
That little drop isnt a pump and dump. A pullback to .120 or .115 is totally expected and part of the plan.
As long as it is followed by a rise, and not a further drop to .105.
-
That little drop isnt a pump and dump. A pullback to .120 or .115 is totally expected and part of the plan.
As long as it is followed by a rise, and not a further drop to .105.
Some good deals over on BTER....
-
I don't want quick pump and quick dump. Now this price is good.
No big improvement in BitUSD and other asset usage, if pump high will dump any way.
-
For Real:PUMP AND DUMP..
(http://ww2.sinaimg.cn/large/005yyi5Jjw1emsrm03zxhj30e40ek783.jpg)
I think will dump to 0.11
-
Sorry Ander but it is looking very similar to a pump and dump right now. At what point will this turn around?
-
Any update?
-
Lol this happens everytime...price gets pumped up a bit, stays nice and stable for 8 hours while China sleeps, then China wakes up and it's a panic sell to the bottom. Had to have happened at least 10 times these past few months...
-
You guys are really overreacting to a drop that is a meaningless blip on the daily chart. :P
-
@ Ander. I am starting to like a lot your bull posts and I agree with you. The only reason BTS hasn't skyrocketed to at least $0.05 again is imho that most people don't know about the coming snapshots of Play, Sparkle and that by the end of the month maybe a new wallet upgrade, the e commerce plugins, new marketing campaigns etc...
Let the bears sell now. I am not even close to my desired BTS amount yet so I am quite happily surprised to see people selling at these levels . They will lose the huge up rise to x5 before the 8th or max by the end of December. Then they will certainly lose the x50 by the end of Q2 2015...
-
10x increase before the end of february! Lets see how bitmarkets videos and methodX's headhunting reddit post and ads goes.
-
真希望有人能给翻成中文啊 多激情的文字
-
Within 60 days we will see new ATH. It will happen fast when it happens :)
-
真希望有人能给翻成中文啊 多激情的文字
基本翻译就是：到月亮！！！！
-
真希望有人能给翻成中文啊 多激情的文字
頑張ってBTSちゃん！ｗｗｗ
...sorry, wrong language.
-
10x increase before the end of february! Lets see how bitmarkets videos and methodX's headhunting reddit post and ads goes.
+5% eager to see :)
-
So it appears like it was a good idea to sell and buy back. (I did not :( )
-
I didn't either...but I didn't sell a single BTS even when it was at $0.05 but rather kept buying and I am pretty sure that in the long run I won't regret it because I believe that we are in bitcoin of 2010.
-
The price seems to have bottomed out now, as there is huge buying support right now at 4900/5000. Ander your thoughts? I am just holding for the long term, but I think we could see another breakout soon.
-
I was gone for a week....WTF happened to cause the Ripple price to skyrocket?
-
The price seems to have bottomed out now, as there is huge buying support right now at 4900/5000. Ander your thoughts? I am just holding for the long term, but I think we could see another breakout soon.
It looks to me that the market has chosen to make a slower push up to .170 (and then later new highs), rather than taking the (low probability) 1-2 week explosive move to new highs.
Even though I posted this superbull chart in the first post, this was always a MUCH more likely scenario. I just thought there was a chance of BTS doing what ripple just did and going up 200% in a week or two.
It looks now that we have corrected the rise that occurred on Nov 28 and are ready to move higher again at a more reasonable pace.
It is almost always true that if you sell some on the spike rises, you can buy back in lower in a couple days. Indeed, those of you that sold the spike to .135 were able to buy back in lower now. I usually do this, sell 10% on a big rise, buy back a bit lower. I decided not to do it this time, because I felt that we *might* just go crazy to the upside, but it didnt happen. Grats to those of you who gained shares doing so.
My main priority is to not miss the coming big BTS rally as a result of my trading, so I am only selling/rebuying when the probabilities look very heavily in favor of it working.
One final note: If you manage to sell a rise and rebuy a bit lower within the 8 hour period that china is asleep, it almost always works, because btc38 is unlikely to drive up the price during that time.
-
I was gone for a week....WTF happened to cause the Ripple price to skyrocket?
Nothing, it was purely technical as far as I can tell. That is, price had been slowly going up and gathering momentum, and then it broke a key level and then the momentum players went crazy and drove it up massively. This is exactly what I was hoping would happen in BTS, with the chart at the start of this thread, however it didnt happen (at least not yet - it still might. But of course it is low probability!)
News events drive markets when they occur, but there are also plenty of moves that do not have any corresponding news event or reason.
-
The price seems to have bottomed out now, as there is huge buying support right now at 4900/5000. Ander your thoughts? I am just holding for the long term, but I think we could see another breakout soon.
It looks to me that the market has chosen to make a slower push up to .170 (and then later new highs), rather than taking the (low probability) 1-2 week explosive move to new highs.
Even though I posted this superbull chart in the first post, this was always a MUCH more likely scenario. I just thought there was a chance of BTS doing what ripple just did and going up 200% in a week or two.
It looks now that we have corrected the rise that occurred on Nov 28 and are ready to move higher again at a more reasonable pace.
It is almost always true that if you sell some on the spike rises, you can buy back in lower in a couple days. Indeed, those of you that sold the spike to .135 were able to buy back in lower now. I usually do this, sell 10% on a big rise, buy back a bit lower. I decided not to do it this time, because I felt that we *might* just go crazy to the upside, but it didnt happen. Grats to those of you who gained shares doing so.
My main priority is to not miss the coming big BTS rally as a result of my trading, so I am only selling/rebuying when the probabilities look very heavily in favor of it working.
One final note: If you manage to sell a rise and rebuy a bit lower within the 8 hour period that china is asleep, it almost always works, because btc38 is unlikely to drive up the price during that time.
Are we still in a bull trend?
-
About a week ago, the 1 day MACD gave a buy signal.
3 days ago we broke the downtrend line, as shown in the first post.
Yesterday the moving averages gave a bullish crossover buy signal.
After the price went to .135, it has consolidated, doing a roughly .618 fib retracement of the gian, which is perfectly normal.
This is a retest of the breakout point, which is generally the best time to buy from a risk/reward standpoint. You arent always given that opportunity, but when it happens, it is a very good trade.
-
Are we still in a bull trend?
Bullshit trend, more like. Or whalebot trend. Give us a decent client and some marketing, stir it up together with some Red Bull, and make yourself a real bull trend. Until then, call it a whalebot trend; a couple of big investors will continue to utterly manipulate the price on the exchanges, while nickle-and-dimers on the forum jump and get excited when there's an uptick or downtick. In absence of any real news, it's just whales and their bots.
If you understand the technical aspects of trading and are willing to sit things out when there's any sort of disruptive news, then you can make a few bucks that way. But if you believe Bitshares is going much higher, like most of us do, then it doesn't really matter when you buy in. Maybe you have better things to do with your time, or you can make more money, by not going cross-eyed watching charts. We know it's going to start increasing very soon. Would you rather be holding or sitting when that time comes?
-
Are we still in a bull trend?
0.1cny again. >:( >:(
-
bet u will be able to buy sub 40mil market cap in the next 2 weeks... Wayyyy too many raving bulls at a lower high
Where did all the bulls go???
-
Lol everytime the price jumps up like that, I wish I had sold some and waited...but I know, I just f'ing know that the one time I decide to take the plunge and sell some the bull rally will start without me and I'll end up buying back at a premium.
Trading drives me bonkers. I don't know how people can do it without going mad. Sticking to my hold strategy...for now. :P
Good call btw lil_jay. Spot on.
-
Lol everytime the price jumps up like that, I wish I had sold some and waited...but I know, I just f'ing know that the one time I decide to take the plunge and sell some the bull rally will start without me and I'll end up buying back at a premium.
Trading drives me bonkers. I don't know how people can do it without going mad. Sticking to my hold strategy...for now. :P
Good call btw lil_jay. Spot on.
Yeah it is really hard to time a bottom. Although in a few years I honestly believe that this thread will feel so stupid. Just like the speculation threads on bitcointalk arguing about whether you should buy bitcoin at $0.20 or wait till a drop to $0.15 :D now bitcoin is $400 ish and it really doesn't matter whether you paid $0.05 more.
The trick for early adopters of bitcoin was being a strong hand to see it all the way though and not cashing out a long the way. You would have had to hold through the price jumps of $1, $5, $10, $50....
Stay strong and hold for the next few years!
-
Lol everytime the price jumps up like that, I wish I had sold some and waited...but I know, I just f'ing know that the one time I decide to take the plunge and sell some the bull rally will start without me and I'll end up buying back at a premium.
Trading drives me bonkers. I don't know how people can do it without going mad. Sticking to my hold strategy...for now. :P
Good call btw lil_jay. Spot on.
Yeah it is really hard to time a bottom. Although in a few years I honestly believe that this thread will feel so stupid. Just like the speculation threads on bitcointalk arguing about whether you should buy bitcoin at $0.20 or wait till a drop to $0.15 :D now bitcoin is $400 ish and it really doesn't matter whether you paid $0.05 more.
The trick for early adopters of bitcoin was being a strong hand to see it all the way though and not cashing out a long the way. You would have had to hold through the price jumps of $1, $5, $10, $50....
Stay strong and hold for the next few years!
Yep, this.
Just hodl and let time do your trading for you.
-
I learned my trading lessons in the btc world and now improved my strategy for bts: hodl
;)
-
I learned my trading lessons in the btc world and now improved my strategy for bts: hodl
;)
People said that for Lehman Brother and Bear Stearns as well...
-
I learned my trading lessons in the btc world and now improved my strategy for bts: hodl
;)
People said that for Lehman Brother and Bear Stearns as well...
LOL pretty sure BTS is a whole 'nother animal compared to those dinosaurs...
-
Lol everytime the price jumps up like that, I wish I had sold some and waited...but I know, I just f'ing know that the one time I decide to take the plunge and sell some the bull rally will start without me and I'll end up buying back at a premium.
Trading drives me bonkers. I don't know how people can do it without going mad. Sticking to my hold strategy...for now. :P
Good call btw lil_jay. Spot on.
I hodl 90 % of my stake and trade with 10 %. I found that's a good strategy to keep the spirits up. If you're right with trading you can give yourself a pat on the back. If you're wrong you still get 90 % of the next jump towards the moon :)
-
superbull bullshit.
-
superbull bullshit.
Yes I remember this obvious pump :) Ander thought it could be real, alas no.
-
It wasnt real and it broke down. (Man, that was so long ago! BTC was like 400+ back then, wow).
-
superbull bullshit.
Yes I remember this obvious pump :) Ander thought it could be real, alas no.
ohh 1.2
I almost missed that one.
Congrats on 2 * 888 !!!
-
superbull bullshit.
Yes I remember this obvious pump :) Ander thought it could be real, alas no.
ohh 1.2
I almost missed that one.
Congrats on 2 * 888 !!!
:)
-
Noone is able to predict it will go up after more distribution and voting delegates gets easier.. It may start to get priced in and rise at any time.. Never know.. With on ramps it will help
-
It wasnt real and it broke down. (Man, that was so long ago! BTC was like 400+ back then, wow).
I blame BTC bear market.
-
bitUSD showing $31k in volume on CMC.
bitUSD is currently 5th in volume on bter.
-
We had a minor rally on btc38, which could mean anything. if you shorted ~0.05 cny/bts you're no longer in the red.
-
Do we have a bit of a rally underway?
-
Do we have a bit of a rally underway?
Lots of activity on Yunbi today. Glad to see another exchange with decent BTS volume.