BitShares Forum
Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: jokb235 on September 09, 2014, 12:11:20 am
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Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?
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Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?
Let's try it and see ;D
Seriously, though, I don't know. It is possible that capital might flow into the bitshares ecosystem for a safe haven I suppose.
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Short your bitStocks ?
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Note that this tends to happen anytime the US stops printing money.. which is supposed to happen in October.
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Not likely at least for the foreseeable future with all the capital flowing back to the US looking for "safety" (Twisted, I know...). In the unlikely event of a crash, the dollar would rally as everyone would be getting margin calls and money would be pouring into the short end of the yield curve possibly driving t-bills negative which is a big no-no for the FED for numerous reasons.
Perhaps BitUSD would rally? Paradoxically, people would look for alternatives as they did with bitcoin in the aftermath of 2008.
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So the answer is:
No one fucking knows :P
And i would hear this inside my head
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Rqdgna3Yw
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Not likely at least for the foreseeable future with all the capital flowing back to the US looking for "safety" (Twisted, I know...). In the unlikely event of a crash, the dollar would rally as everyone would be getting margin calls and money would be pouring into the short end of the yield curve possibly driving t-bills negative which is a big no-no for the FED for numerous reasons.
Perhaps BitUSD would rally? Paradoxically, people would look for alternatives as they did with bitcoin in the aftermath of 2008.
I understand that the USD would go up. But I didnt really understood why Gold would fall when the stock market crashes. It always seems like everything falls which also makes sense since the fiat / debt supply overall shrinks. But is save heaven assets like gold also impacted negatively? I think gold would be relatively comparable to crypto assets in that scenario insofar as both are considered alternatives outside the "infected" financial system.
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Back in 2008, gold had a major spike two days after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The fear was real and money flocked to the metal. However, gold resumed its downward trend due to pretty much EVERYTHING being liquidated to meet margin calls during the worst of the crisis. Unfortunately, you can't look at gold like any other asset class because it is extremely opaque and the real action is done over-the-counter (OTC) where nobody knows what's really going on. One thing to note was that by November 2008 gold was backwardated which theoretically is not possible for a commodity (The way modern finance looks at gold) with an 80 year+ above ground supply. Backwardation usually implies imminent shortage which is usually seen in the grains market when a bad crop is announced. American Gold Eagles were also selling at a huge premium if you could find any...
Physical gold? Sure, a safe heaven imho (Regardless of price action)...Gold ETFs and other derivatives not so sure. Bitassets most definitely 8)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26759053
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Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?
if stock market crashed, then a lot of people sold and are holding CASH. let's hope those people are willing to take their action in cryptos. :)
there's a lot of room for growth (and profit) in this space.
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Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?
a party
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Interest rates are low (0% in the US). We are in the 6th/7th inning of the stock market and economic cycle. There may be corrections a long the way but wait till interest rates rise and then start falling, then get out or when interest rates peak. +5%
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Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?
The impact would be understated if a substantial correction happens in the next year or two.
The pipe from fiat investments to crypto investments is very small; there is just no practical way to move substantial amounts of wealth into BTSX right now.
However, there is one scenario that merits consideration:
If a BTC ETF lists prior to a market correction, BTC will experience a sharp rise in value during a subsequent correction as it is very easy for fiat wealth to move into a listed ETF.
There is enough Bitcoin awareness among the investment crowd that many individuals and institutions will throw some money at a BTC ETF as they rotate to cash/gold/silver.
This flood of fiat investment could cause the value of BTC to pop $10-50k, perhaps higher if a mania sets in (everything is going down, BTC EFT up 1000%, buy, buy, buy!)
Folks holding BTC directly will be looking for a way take/protect profits... lots of profits. If the Bitshares marketing team has done their job, there may be huge demand for bitUSD/bitCNY/bitGLD/bitSLV and consequently the value of BTSX will spike.
Will be fun to look back on this in two or three years...
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So the answer is:
No one fucking knows :P
What do you mean, "No one fucking knows?". What else could happen, except for the leading crypto currency (and we all know what that is) to go to Pluto.
If you are a keynsean, like I am and most experts are, Crypto Currency will start amplifying the extremities of economic cycles. We will start having depressions again. In the past, the best place to isolate wealth from decline, has been US T bonds. EVERYTHING else just goes down. Governments then print more money to fill the demand, and pay for things like $2000 to destroy good cars, and building bridges to nowhere, bying air craft carriers for war, trying to get the economy to go again.
The only reason Gold didn't go up more, is because higher prices of Gold produce a LOT more of it, especially if it is expected by Gold miners, investing in more gold mines.
But now there is something that has never existed before. Something of value with a truly limited supply.
The next time we have a "GREAT RECESSION" governments are going to try to repeat the process of spend us out of deflation, but they will no longer be able to do that, because of BitUSD. And even better, by then, there will be even more reliable fixed value crypto assets that will not decrease in value, like BitUSD, but will freely increase in value, significantly.
The next "great recession", (I predict there will be another short, at least, depression) will be very different than anything in the past. Everyone will sell EVERYTHING, stocks, real estate, cars, bonds, fiata currencies, people will stop eating, attempting to get any money they can, to put into BitsharesX which will be rocketing to Pluto. And of course, the bubble will then pop, once everyone is finally starving to death, and must start selling some of their BiytsharesX to eat. But things will level out somewhere around Mars.
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What do you mean, "No one fucking knows?". What else could happen, except for the leading crypto currency (and we all know what that is) to go to Pluto.
If you are a keynsean, like I am and most experts are, Crypto Currency will start amplifying the extremities of economic cycles. We will start having depressions again. In the past, the best place to isolate wealth from decline, has been US T bonds. EVERYTHING else just goes down. Governments then print more money to fill the demand, and pay for things like $2000 to destroy good cars, and building bridges to nowhere, bying air craft carriers for war, trying to get the economy to go again.
The only reason Gold didn't go up more, is because higher prices of Gold produce a LOT more of it, especially if it is expected by Gold miners, investing in more gold mines.
But now there is something that has never existed before. Something of value with a truly limited supply.
The next time we have a "GREAT RECESSION" governments are going to try to repeat the process of spend us out of deflation, but they will no longer be able to do that, because of BitUSD. And even better, by then, there will be even more reliable fixed value crypto assets that will not decrease in value, like BitUSD, but will freely increase in value, significantly.
The next "great recession", (I predict there will be another short, at least, depression) will be very different than anything in the past. Everyone will sell EVERYTHING, stocks, real estate, cars, bonds, fiata currencies, people will stop eating, attempting to get any money they can, to put into BitsharesX which will be rocketing to Pluto. And of course, the bubble will then pop, once everyone is finally starving to death, and must start selling some of their BiytsharesX to eat. But things will level out somewhere around Mars.
Well said...I think also the future will be something like that. I just hope that there is only an economical war and not a war with real weapons..
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So the answer is:
No one fucking knows :P
What do you mean, "No one fucking knows?". What else could happen, except for the leading crypto currency (and we all know what that is) to go to Pluto.
If you are a keynsean, like I am and most experts are, Crypto Currency will start amplifying the extremities of economic cycles. We will start having depressions again. In the past, the best place to isolate wealth from decline, has been US T bonds. EVERYTHING else just goes down. Governments then print more money to fill the demand, and pay for things like $2000 to destroy good cars, and building bridges to nowhere, bying air craft carriers for war, trying to get the economy to go again.
The only reason Gold didn't go up more, is because higher prices of Gold produce a LOT more of it, especially if it is expected by Gold miners, investing in more gold mines.
But now there is something that has never existed before. Something of value with a truly limited supply.
The next time we have a "GREAT RECESSION" governments are going to try to repeat the process of spend us out of deflation, but they will no longer be able to do that, because of BitUSD. And even better, by then, there will be even more reliable fixed value crypto assets that will not decrease in value, like BitUSD, but will freely increase in value, significantly.
The next "great recession", (I predict there will be another short, at least, depression) will be very different than anything in the past. Everyone will sell EVERYTHING, stocks, real estate, cars, bonds, fiata currencies, people will stop eating, attempting to get any money they can, to put into BitsharesX which will be rocketing to Pluto. And of course, the bubble will then pop, once everyone is finally starving to death, and must start selling some of their BiytsharesX to eat. But things will level out somewhere around Mars.
well said
i hope this will happen.
BUT no one can calculate the exact outcome of such an event.
There would be too many unknown variables.
So no one really fucking KNOWS what would happen. :P
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Stock market crash?? :-\
Sooner then you think.
s&p charts-
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OA1J4N7-So0/VA-PeIvQwdI/AAAAAAAAZDE/SC8RctPqsDQ/s1600/wlshmonthly.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GSMadSllQ4A/VA-PrZqZaiI/AAAAAAAAZDM/zoxF34ZVtFA/s1600/SpxWEEKLY.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TEaKuxqF5-s/VA-Nh2SKvRI/AAAAAAAAZC4/vvJPg_tS2zw/s1600/spx60.png
(http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/Investor-Psychology-Cycle-062414.PNG)
If you ask me , just in time for bitshares X to skyrocket (and all crypto economy in general).
bits&p500 where are you? come out don't be shy. ;D
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Stock market crash?? :-\
Sooner then you think.
s&p charts-
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OA1J4N7-So0/VA-PeIvQwdI/AAAAAAAAZDE/SC8RctPqsDQ/s1600/wlshmonthly.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GSMadSllQ4A/VA-PrZqZaiI/AAAAAAAAZDM/zoxF34ZVtFA/s1600/SpxWEEKLY.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TEaKuxqF5-s/VA-Nh2SKvRI/AAAAAAAAZC4/vvJPg_tS2zw/s1600/spx60.png
(http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/Investor-Psychology-Cycle-062414.PNG)
If you ask me , just in time for bitshares X to skyrocket (and all crypto economy in general).
bits&p500 where are you? come out don't be shy. ;D
Well, the second "excitement" level in your graph really is still in the "recovery" part (the part where we get back the losses from the crash), so basically we haven't entered in a real growth cycle before 2013. IMHO, no huge correction to come in the near future for stock market. Interest rates are too low and economic metrics too good for a short-term crash.
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Well, the second "excitement" level in your graph really is still in the "recovery" part (the part where we get back the losses from the crash), so basically we haven't entered in a real growth cycle before 2013. IMHO, no huge correction to come in the near future for stock market. Interest rates are too low and economic metrics too good for a short-term crash.
AND we have a market! , 50 min passed and my short order is filled.(obviously in theory )
How about setting a bounty for bits&p500 market before the end of September? anyone interested?
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Well, the second "excitement" level in your graph really is still in the "recovery" part (the part where we get back the losses from the crash), so basically we haven't entered in a real growth cycle before 2013. IMHO, no huge correction to come in the near future for stock market. Interest rates are too low and economic metrics too good for a short-term crash.
AND we have a market! , 50 min passed and my short order is filled.(obviously in theory )
How about setting a bounty for bits&p500 market before the end of September? anyone interested?
A derivative asset to track an index of securities? Man...how deep will this rabbit hole go??
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Well, the second "excitement" level in your graph really is still in the "recovery" part (the part where we get back the losses from the crash), so basically we haven't entered in a real growth cycle before 2013. IMHO, no huge correction to come in the near future for stock market. Interest rates are too low and economic metrics too good for a short-term crash.
AND we have a market! , 50 min passed and my short order is filled.(obviously in theory )
How about setting a bounty for bits&p500 market before the end of September? anyone interested?
A derivative asset to track an index of securities? Man...how deep will this rabbit hole go??
I would say X2-X10 the market cap of BTC. :-X
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maybe we should go one step at a time .. BUT anyone can create (paying the fee) a bitAsset on his own .. you just need to market it enough so that the 5m btsx are on ask/bid side and persuade 51 delegates to publish a feed .. done .. or am i missing sth?
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maybe we should go one step at a time .. BUT anyone can create (paying the fee) a bitAsset on his own .. you just need to market it enough so that the 5m btsx are on ask/bid side and persuade 51 delegates to publish a feed .. done .. or am i missing sth?
Yes, I3 is doing a great job of bootstrapping a core asset group.
Once a few pegs are stable and there is some depth the rest will take care of itself.
bitUSD/bitCNY/bitGLD is probably all that is required to start the avalanche.
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So the answer is:
No one fucking knows :P
What do you mean, "No one fucking knows?". What else could happen, except for the leading crypto currency (and we all know what that is) to go to Pluto.
If you are a keynsean, like I am and most experts are, Crypto Currency will start amplifying the extremities of economic cycles. We will start having depressions again. In the past, the best place to isolate wealth from decline, has been US T bonds. EVERYTHING else just goes down. Governments then print more money to fill the demand, and pay for things like $2000 to destroy good cars, and building bridges to nowhere, bying air craft carriers for war, trying to get the economy to go again.
The only reason Gold didn't go up more, is because higher prices of Gold produce a LOT more of it, especially if it is expected by Gold miners, investing in more gold mines.
But now there is something that has never existed before. Something of value with a truly limited supply.
The next time we have a "GREAT RECESSION" governments are going to try to repeat the process of spend us out of deflation, but they will no longer be able to do that, because of BitUSD. And even better, by then, there will be even more reliable fixed value crypto assets that will not decrease in value, like BitUSD, but will freely increase in value, significantly.
The next "great recession", (I predict there will be another short, at least, depression) will be very different than anything in the past. Everyone will sell EVERYTHING, stocks, real estate, cars, bonds, fiata currencies, people will stop eating, attempting to get any money they can, to put into BitsharesX which will be rocketing to Pluto. And of course, the bubble will then pop, once everyone is finally starving to death, and must start selling some of their BiytsharesX to eat. But things will level out somewhere around Mars.
Its not going to happen like that. "History does not repeat, it rhymes" - Mark Twain
The US Federal Government Deficit is under 4% right now.
The "Great Recession" occurred because of sub-prime mortgages causing a nuclear bomb reaction by first bankrupting Bear Stearns and then Lehman Brothers.
However, Bear Stearns was bailed out but Lehman Brothers had an asset book of $600 billion and they had to sell sell sell. Same with AIG but they had a huge derivative portfolio and were bailed out, but still lost about $100 billion (Yes with a b) dollars.
Sub-prime mortgages were mortgages to people with bad credit that had higher interest rates that could not be paid back. Why was this a problem? This inflated housing prices (was one of the big reasons) causing people to excessively (foolishly) take out LOC (Lines of credit) from there bank.
The next time there is a "recession" it will not be from the private sector but from the government debt problem (I am assuming).
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Stock market crash?? :-\
Sooner then you think.
s&p charts-
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OA1J4N7-So0/VA-PeIvQwdI/AAAAAAAAZDE/SC8RctPqsDQ/s1600/wlshmonthly.png
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GSMadSllQ4A/VA-PrZqZaiI/AAAAAAAAZDM/zoxF34ZVtFA/s1600/SpxWEEKLY.png
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TEaKuxqF5-s/VA-Nh2SKvRI/AAAAAAAAZC4/vvJPg_tS2zw/s1600/spx60.png
(http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/Investor-Psychology-Cycle-062414.PNG)
If you ask me , just in time for bitshares X to skyrocket (and all crypto economy in general).
bits&p500 where are you? come out don't be shy. ;D
Interest rates are low we are not going down yet, Scotty. (figure of speech, (Star Trek))
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nice graph... so where do we stand with BTSX in the below? Are we in the "Hope" point?
I hope we are not in the 1st "euphoria" point or in any of the red points....
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nice graph... so where do we stand with BTSX in the below? Are we in the "Hope" point?
I hope we are not in the 1st "euphoria" point or in any of the red points....
I doubt that we are in this graph as its for a known asset. We are at the stealth stage yet
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nice graph... so where do we stand with BTSX in the below? Are we in the "Hope" point?
I hope we are not in the 1st "euphoria" point or in any of the red points....
Bitshares are just 1.5 months old. We had a eurphoria phase for like a day then dropped down, now we are slowly going up again.
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how many of those "bubbles" did bitcoin have? any one participated in the $7c bubble already? I would guess btc had like 5 to 7 big increases in value
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nice graph... so where do we stand with BTSX in the below? Are we in the "Hope" point?
I hope we are not in the 1st "euphoria" point or in any of the red points....
I doubt that we are in this graph as its for a known asset. We are at the stealth stage yet
Agree... Bitshares is not even on the radar.
Might hit the optimism/excitement stage around the $1bn cap, when there's enough liquidity in the pegged assets to get some real attention.
Kind of like Bitcoin prior to $1bn.
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nice graph... so where do we stand with BTSX in the below? Are we in the "Hope" point?
I hope we are not in the 1st "euphoria" point or in any of the red points....
I doubt that we are in this graph as its for a known asset. We are at the stealth stage yet
Agree... Bitshares is not even on the radar.
Might hit the optimism/excitement stage around the $1bn cap, when there's enough liquidity in the pegged assets to get some real attention.
Kind of like Bitcoin prior to $1bn.
I would even say that optimism stage is up to 10bn market cap.... dont forget the stock exchange isnt 4 years old. Bitcoin is the most "known" crypto. ut lets face it 8 out of 10 people havent heard of it. the other 2 heard of it but dont know what it is. there is 360 thousand users registered on bitcointalk - how many of them are idle? Population of th eplanet is 7 billion (alomst). We are FAR off the excitment stage in any crypto yet