BitShares Forum

Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: Ander on November 21, 2014, 02:34:31 am

Title: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 21, 2014, 02:34:31 am
I think there is a good chance that this is the bottom in BTS or very close to it.

The elliot wave count at this point looks simple enough that even I, an amateur, can count it:

(http://s8.postimg.org/lua0tmgyd/bts.png)

I labeled the august rise as a I, because it was the first major move up since BTS began trading this summer.  Of course, people paid various prices for their BTS by donating to AGS or donating PTS, but I dont know how to count all that. 

The entire decline since August looks like like a 3-3-5 ABC.  Wave 3 of C extended due to the terrible sentiment at that time, due to the dilution and merger and all the associated pain.

Note the divergence in he MACD.  We are at a slightly lower low for wave 5 of C of II, but the MACD is much higher. 

The blue wave III arrow is not meant to indicate a timeframe or a price target, it only indicates that the next rise has begun.


Note that wave 5 of C is not necessarily complete yet.  We could continue down into new lows to complete 5 of C.  The decline could be over but it is not necessarily completed yet. 
A rise above .117 CNY or so should indicate that 5 of C was finished and we are in wave 3. 
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: zerosum on November 21, 2014, 02:41:09 am
I used other highly unscientific methods to call the bottom as well.
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11569.msg152504#msg152504

'Other', because I consider the technical analyses voodoo science, sorry nothing personal; actually I think they are helpful if you put like 10-15% weight on the technical analyses results.

But honestly - I have no clue, if this is indeed the bottom.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 21, 2014, 02:43:41 am
(http://s29.postimg.org/eyyz27brb/bts2.png)

A closeup of wave V of C (this week).

Note the positive divergence on MACD.  This is what makes me think the decline might be over.

There is also a positive divergence on 4h MACD, between the recent .081 low and the .084 low at the beginning of november. 


My final piece of evidence that this might be the bottom is that when bitcoin tanked an hour ago, from 365 to 350, BTS not only didnt drop with it, but actually managed to rise from .083 to .087.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 21, 2014, 04:17:22 am
Price action so far is very bullish!


Also: more whale signalling sighted.  Someone bought 400k shares at .094 and put up a 1.5 million buy wall there.  Then a 6 million sell wall appeared at .095 and .096, and then disappeared again within seconds.  Then the First guy moved his 1.5M buy wall down to .090.  Then someone bought 300k up to .097.    Very interesting, I wish I knew what it meant.

Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 21, 2014, 04:21:20 am
This is the first time in a long time I have seen BTS rallying very hard while bitcoin isnt going up at all. 

So far so good.   Getting to .117 CNY should confirm that the low is in and we are going higher.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: zerosum on November 21, 2014, 08:30:43 am
And now a laughable wall of about 5 BTC at about ~0.000048 BTC/BTS.

You called the bottom Ander !!!
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: vlight on November 21, 2014, 02:46:17 pm
It would be even better if BTC price has reached the bottom too.  8) I want some upwards price movement for black friday :D
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: oldman on November 21, 2014, 02:58:51 pm
I would suggest that in a market this thin TA should be considered for entertainment value only.

There's a dozen or so folks pushing this market around at will, and perhaps less.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 21, 2014, 07:00:02 pm
I would suggest that in a market this thin TA should be considered for entertainment value only.

There's a dozen or so folks pushing this market around at will, and perhaps less.

I think TA still works as reliably as ever even with just a few large participants.  Which is to say, only somewhat reliably.  :) 

In fact, if I had listened more to my TA instead of being super long term bullish on bitshares and not ever wanting to sell, I wouldve made more shares by trading.


If that was the bottom, we wont be able to be sure until much higher.  But so far so good. 
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: toast on November 21, 2014, 07:04:00 pm
I knew we hit them bottom from this:  https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11584.0
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Vizzini on November 21, 2014, 07:18:02 pm
(http://www.quickmeme.com/img/12/12f250e458003023c6c47b583e28538873ba6295a57265c5299ea62c3ed0e8fe.jpg)
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: busygin on November 21, 2014, 08:09:31 pm
I like that this time we move up together with Counterparty and Ripple, while BTC and all the trash like LTC, DOGE and DRK is still down comparing to their prices 24h ago. Maybe the market finally realized which projects have some value...
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: hpenvy on November 21, 2014, 08:16:19 pm
I like that this time we move up together with Counterparty and Ripple, while BTC and all the trash like LTC, DOGE and DRK is still down comparing to their prices 24h ago. Maybe the market finally realized which projects have some value...

It will be interesting when Litecoin falls below 100 million for a few straight days.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 21, 2014, 08:40:21 pm
I like that this time we move up together with Counterparty and Ripple, while BTC and all the trash like LTC, DOGE and DRK is still down comparing to their prices 24h ago. Maybe the market finally realized which projects have some value...

I had the same reaction when I saw coinmarketcap this morning.  Its as if sanity returned to the market for a day.  Things that should be going up are, at the expense of things whose best days are in the past.


(If it wasnt for the terrible distribution, I definitely wouldve bought some ripple!  It makes me so sad that the devs kept almost all of it). 
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: CLains on November 21, 2014, 09:05:29 pm
Finding the bottom..

(http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51210vbtOFL.jpg)

"If it turns out it is like an onion with millions of layers and we are just sick and tired of looking at the layers -- then that is the way it is."
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: jsidhu on November 21, 2014, 09:38:35 pm
This is the first time in a long time I have seen BTS rallying very hard while bitcoin isnt going up at all. 

So far so good.   Getting to .117 CNY should confirm that the low is in and we are going higher.
This is what i wanted to see with bts now an annoucement has to followto sustain uptrend...
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: hpenvy on November 21, 2014, 09:45:45 pm
This is the first time in a long time I have seen BTS rallying very hard while bitcoin isnt going up at all. 

So far so good.   Getting to .117 CNY should confirm that the low is in and we are going higher.
This is what i wanted to see with bts now an annoucement has to followto sustain uptrend...

There's a lot of positive developments happening:

- Unity on objectives in the forums
- Great communication within the recent dev Mumble session
- Community marketing initiative launched
- Details on 0.4.5
- On/off ramps coming

It should get interesting.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: jsidhu on November 21, 2014, 09:56:17 pm
Yup i'm also working on e-commerce plugins for bitshares. Will be integral for merchants to adopt a pay with bitshares model.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 21, 2014, 10:06:05 pm
One announcement that we could promote is that buying BTS before Dec 8 gets you shares in Bitshares PLAY.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: abelljefrry on November 24, 2014, 12:49:30 pm
Yup i'm also working on e-commerce plugins for bitshares. Will be integral for merchants to adopt a pay with bitshares model.

Will it work with Wordpress + WooCommerce? Just asking, because I run an ecommerce site using WooCommerce and willing to test your plugins once it's ready soon.  :)
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: jsidhu on November 24, 2014, 04:25:42 pm
Yup i'm also working on e-commerce plugins for bitshares. Will be integral for merchants to adopt a pay with bitshares model.

Will it work with Wordpress + WooCommerce? Just asking, because I run an ecommerce site using WooCommerce and willing to test your plugins once it's ready soon.  :)

There are about 11 carts I will be itegrating woocommerce will come after that given BM still wants it... Its more complicated to do that one but once Ido the first one I should be able to do that one.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 24, 2014, 06:05:29 pm
So far since the maybe-bottom we held strongly and are now pushing into the resistance at .103 - .106.  It looks to me like we will break it today and head higher, probably to around .115.  Probably later on, once china wakes up?
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: jsidhu on November 24, 2014, 06:35:09 pm
bts usd is rising cause btc usd rises.. but bts/btc is still falling.. I'd like to see bts outperform btc as a sign of a pump thats coming. Otherwise it will be flat to down.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 25, 2014, 03:27:59 am
I feel like we are ready to explode higher any time now, to at least .115 CNY within 24 hours, possibly even all the way to .130 or so. 

It really should happen pretty soon here if its going to happen.

Yes, I just predicted a 12-30% gain within 24 hours.  Prove me wrong market!  Or prove me right! :)
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: jsidhu on November 25, 2014, 03:43:47 am
I think there is no resistance up to 0.17 if it breaks 0.13
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 25, 2014, 05:47:57 am
I think there is no resistance up to 0.17 if it breaks 0.13

And there is no resistance up .32 if it breaks .17. :)
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 25, 2014, 08:49:35 am
Bid/ask has become hevily stacked in our favor.

Sell 2.4 million shares only takes us down .003 CNY.  Buy 2.4 million shares takes us up .016!
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 25, 2014, 08:59:02 am
Its coming any moment now. :)
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 25, 2014, 06:39:27 pm
We went up some, but not enough, then bitcoin dropped again.

Need to go higher tonight.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: hpenvy on November 25, 2014, 09:33:35 pm
Yup i'm also working on e-commerce plugins for bitshares. Will be integral for merchants to adopt a pay with bitshares model.

Will it work with Wordpress + WooCommerce? Just asking, because I run an ecommerce site using WooCommerce and willing to test your plugins once it's ready soon.  :)

There are about 11 carts I will be itegrating woocommerce will come after that given BM still wants it... Its more complicated to do that one but once Ido the first one I should be able to do that one.

This deserves a handful of +5s  +5%  +5%  +5%
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: bytemaster on November 25, 2014, 09:34:38 pm
Yup i'm also working on e-commerce plugins for bitshares. Will be integral for merchants to adopt a pay with bitshares model.

Will it work with Wordpress + WooCommerce? Just asking, because I run an ecommerce site using WooCommerce and willing to test your plugins once it's ready soon.  :)

There are about 11 carts I will be itegrating woocommerce will come after that given BM still wants it... Its more complicated to do that one but once Ido the first one I should be able to do that one.

This deserves a handful of +5s  +5%  +5%  +5%

woocommerce is high priority... considering we use wordpress for bitshares.org
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: jsidhu on November 25, 2014, 11:09:15 pm
Yup i'm also working on e-commerce plugins for bitshares. Will be integral for merchants to adopt a pay with bitshares model.

Will it work with Wordpress + WooCommerce? Just asking, because I run an ecommerce site using WooCommerce and willing to test your plugins once it's ready soon.  :)

There are about 11 carts I will be itegrating woocommerce will come after that given BM still wants it... Its more complicated to do that one but once Ido the first one I should be able to do that one.

This deserves a handful of +5s  +5%  +5%  +5%

woocommerce is high priority... considering we use wordpress for bitshares.org

Should be doable soon as I get these other ones out and we figure out how we want it to work exactly (the flow)... and test them.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Empirical1.1 on November 28, 2014, 03:06:05 pm
Wow  < $16 000 24hr volume. That's got to be an all time low volume for BTS(X)

Thinking of starting to buy more again. Anyone know the ETA of anything they think could be market moving news. It doesn't take much with these volumes. Or are we mainly waiting for 1.0 and some kind of marketing push around it in Q1 2015.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: lzr1900 on November 28, 2014, 03:17:59 pm

Wow  < $16 000 24hr volume. That's got to be an all time low volume for BTS(X)

Thinking of starting to buy more again. Anyone know the ETA of anything they think could be market moving news. It doesn't take much with these volumes. Or are we mainly waiting for 1.0 and some kind of marketing push around it in Q1 2015.
I have the same question here.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: chryspano on November 28, 2014, 05:29:29 pm
Wow  < $16 000 24hr volume. That's got to be an all time low volume for BTS(X)
...


Something is wrong with coinmarketcap the last days(maybe more) they don't include BTC38 trading volume, its more than 140K
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Empirical1.1 on November 28, 2014, 05:40:44 pm
Wow  < $16 000 24hr volume. That's got to be an all time low volume for BTS(X)
...


Something is wrong with coinmarketcap the last days(maybe more) they don't include BTC38 trading volume, its more than 140K

 +5% Thanks good to know!
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: islandking on November 29, 2014, 02:41:49 am
150,000 BTS sell order on BTER which was canceled after 10 minutes or so.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Empirical1.1 on November 29, 2014, 03:17:34 am
150,000 BTS sell order on BTER which was canceled after 10 minutes or so.

150 000 is not very much. Most of the trading happens on BTC38.

I'm actually starting to feel very bullish on BitShares. Ripple getting momentum and doing big CNY volume is actually BitShares positive for me. The way the delegate system is coming together is good. Looks like there are a few community members helping co-ordinate efforts on various fronts and they're not being reckless with it. I think MethodX is doing a great job.

I think the negative short term effect of introducing dilution on the share price is pretty much over. I see a lot of small positives happening now that will build momentum towards the push.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 29, 2014, 06:04:14 am
Wow  < $16 000 24hr volume. That's got to be an all time low volume for BTS(X)

This was actually inaccurate, its because coinmarketcap wasnt updating btc38's trade, ever since btc38 switched from BTSX to BTS a couple days ago.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 29, 2014, 06:04:57 am
We hit .117 now. :)

Just took a couple days longer than I expected.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 29, 2014, 07:00:34 am
This is so beautiful.

This is a wave 3, the buying power is much stronger than anything since the August runup when bitassets come out.  And probably only 3 of 1! :)
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: jsidhu on November 29, 2014, 07:02:34 am
I think there is no resistance up to 0.17 if it breaks 0.13

And there is no resistance up .32 if it breaks .17. :)

Yup one minor one at 0.14 before 0.17 then new highs
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: vlight on November 29, 2014, 07:06:53 am
This is so beautiful.

This is a wave 3, the buying power is much stronger than anything since the August runup when bitassets come out.  And probably only 3 of 1! :)

Awesome! If BTC could also break through the resistance, this might be an epic rally. But you never know... risk to lose money is always there.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Ander on November 29, 2014, 07:18:30 am
The chart is super bullish.  We just broke the downtrend, AND we will get a bullish moving average crossover tomorrow on the daily.

(Of course, that doesnt mean to panic buy at .135.  It means try to buy any pullback that occurs.  Never panic buy).


Of course, we all had PLENTY of chances to buy recently at absurdly low prices, so everyone here should probably be mostly in already. 
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: jsidhu on November 29, 2014, 07:26:05 am
Yup i'm also working on e-commerce plugins for bitshares. Will be integral for merchants to adopt a pay with bitshares model.
First step complete opencart.. Feedback requested

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11840.new#new
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: Empirical1.1 on November 29, 2014, 01:24:40 pm
Wow  < $16 000 24hr volume. That's got to be an all time low volume for BTS(X)

This was actually inaccurate, its because coinmarketcap wasnt updating btc38's trade, ever since btc38 switched from BTSX to BTS a couple days ago.

Yes, thanks,  chryspano cleared that up for me just a few posts later on this same page...

Wow  < $16 000 24hr volume. That's got to be an all time low volume for BTS(X)
...


Something is wrong with coinmarketcap the last days(maybe more) they don't include BTC38 trading volume, its more than 140K

 +5% Thanks good to know!

Thanks to that I started buying again before this nice move...  :)

... I'm actually buying more myself as I'm pretty bullish again and see a lot of small positives happening that will build momentum towards the main marketing push.

It's a big day though and Counterparty has been trending down, maybe Overstock will move to BitShares after all...
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: islandking on November 29, 2014, 03:13:16 pm
Wow, big move in BTS. Hopefully we will go higher from here. We also have the PLAY snapshot in a week.
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: bytemaster on November 29, 2014, 04:15:44 pm
It must be the sparkle snapshot announcement.   Lol.  Kidding. 
Title: Re: Is this the bottom?
Post by: liondani on November 29, 2014, 05:40:59 pm
It must be the sparkle snapshot announcement.   Lol.  Kidding.
that was a good one...   :)

PS I think it's time for the ripple gainers to make some profits over here also....

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