BitShares Forum

Other => Graveyard => Muse/SoundDAC => Topic started by: bitcoinerS on October 07, 2014, 03:22:37 am

Title: BitShares Music market cap prediction (Poll)
Post by: bitcoinerS on October 07, 2014, 03:22:37 am
Based on stats for the first 27 hours of Notes pre-sale (~1.444 BTC/hour) if we were to assume same constant rate till the end of 60 days sale we would expect about 2000 Bitcoins. Since this represents 20 % of all Notes we would then guess-timate about 10,000 Bitcoins market cap for Notes at launch. Thoughts?
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: signingoff on October 07, 2014, 06:31:01 am
It's crazy, the cap of btsx is 18000 btc.
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: Riverhead on October 07, 2014, 06:34:43 am
They haven't even started marketing yet. The current bids are just from "insiders". I suspect it'll be much bigger.
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: kisa on October 07, 2014, 07:07:46 am
It's crazy, the cap of btsx is 18000 btc.

You mean PTS market cap is about 18,000 BTC? Because BTSX is some 180,000...
Since PTS give you a 10% stake in a new DAC, 10,000 BTC cap implies PTS would fall by ~0.15$ or $300k post Bitshares Music snapshot... Imho the drop will likely be ~0.5$ or $1m. A market cap of 5-10m$ at launch sounds reasonably safe, with much upside potential before some people would dump, leaving enough time for marketing. . I think that if launch was at 20-30m$, this would be rather tempting for pumpers and dumpers...  dumping after a pump with a price going below IPO usually leaves negative perception of a project and could demotivate holders and devs somewhat, so ideally should be reduced magnitude...
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: CLains on October 07, 2014, 01:44:05 pm
It's around 4 million. 4 million dollar at IPO means people see it having some decent chance at 40 million, at least that is how I am thinking when I invest crypto. I think crypto investors in general think like that, always looking for the exponential 10x potential for the long term.
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: bitcoinerS on October 07, 2014, 01:58:40 pm
Average sale rate of 1.6 Bitcoin/hour for first 38 hours gives us current market cap estimate of: 1.6×24×60x5 ~> 11500 Bitcoins.
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: donkeypong on October 07, 2014, 05:06:25 pm
I'm not sure that's enough of a sample size yet. The beginning of the IPO period may not be a fair indicator of overall demand. I think average demand could settle a little lower than this, since some people were eager to get in on it. But there's also a strong possibility that "we ain't seen nothin' yet." If BitShares marketing and BTSX really take off in the coming weeks (before early December, when the Music fundraiser ends), those coattails could really lift Music's IPO donations as well. And if there are even a couple of well-placed articles on BitShares Music/PeerTracks, then people would understand just how exponential this DAC could become.

I can't wait to see this DAC in the Top 10, because it is such an awesome concept and model. I think it's going to attract a LOT more demand, either soon or over time.
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: donkeypong on October 07, 2014, 05:13:23 pm
It's around 4 million. 4 million dollar at IPO means people see it having some decent chance at 40 million, at least that is how I am thinking when I invest crypto. I think crypto investors in general think like that, always looking for the exponential 10x potential for the long term.

x10? Naw. I'm looking for 500x from this one. I might start selling a few at 300x!  ;)
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: bitcoinerS on October 07, 2014, 05:14:59 pm
I'm not sure that's enough of a sample size yet. The beginning of the IPO period may not be a fair indicator of overall demand. I think average demand could settle a little lower than this, since some people were eager to get in on it. But there's also a strong possibility that "we ain't seen nothin' yet." If BitShares marketing and BTSX really take off in the coming weeks (before early December, when the Music fundraiser ends), those coattails could really lift Music's IPO donations as well. And if there are even a couple of well-placed articles on BitShares Music/PeerTracks, then people would understand just how exponential this DAC could become.

I can't wait to see this DAC in the Top 10, because it is such an awesome concept and model. I think it's going to attract a LOT more demand, either soon or over time.

I am on the "we ain't seen nothin' yet." side of this prediction. :)
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: xeroc on October 07, 2014, 05:39:45 pm
(http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png)
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: bitcoinerS on October 07, 2014, 05:43:32 pm
(http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png)

lol. me too
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: G1ng3rBr34dM4n on October 07, 2014, 06:35:54 pm
This may be covered in another thread, but super excited to see agsexplorer hosting the data for the Notes 60 day auction.

http://www1.agsexplorer.com/ (http://www1.agsexplorer.com/)

Great work Boombastic!
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: feedthemcake on October 07, 2014, 07:09:06 pm
This may be covered in another thread, but super excited to see agsexplorer hosting the data for the Notes 60 day auction.

http://www1.agsexplorer.com/ (http://www1.agsexplorer.com/)

Great work Boombastic!

 +5% I felt a little sad when I didn't get to look at the AGS countdown after it ended. This is a strangely satisfying treat to me.
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: liondani on October 07, 2014, 08:46:51 pm
This may be covered in another thread, but super excited to see agsexplorer hosting the data for the Notes 60 day auction.

http://www1.agsexplorer.com/ (http://www1.agsexplorer.com/)

Great work Boombastic!

 +5% +5% +5% +5%
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
Post by: clayop on October 07, 2014, 11:13:43 pm
Based on PTS price difference (between price before snapshot announcement and peak price), my prediction is 30,000BTC market cap. This means one of two: PTS owners will lose money or presale participants will earn money. I hope that the latter is right :)
Title: Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction (Poll)
Post by: edilliam on October 08, 2014, 01:17:43 am
Oh wow, this is off to a really good start!