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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: clayop on February 06, 2015, 10:13:22 pm

Title: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: clayop on February 06, 2015, 10:13:22 pm
Hundreds of thousand BitUSD shorts were expired just before and they are remaining expired now.
In this case, what happens next?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 06, 2015, 10:58:02 pm
I think they will just stay on the orderbook as bitUSD buy orders at the feed. It could probably take a while until they are gone.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: vlight on February 06, 2015, 11:04:34 pm
If they're buy orders at the feed, why they do not buy all the short orders that sell at the price feed?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: zerosum on February 06, 2015, 11:04:49 pm
I would suggest for BM to sell/short to them some bitUSD...after all he is the strongest proponent of the idea that it is a good business practice to lend money and pay interest for the privilege to lend them funds... :-*


0.02 BTS



#200% collateral from shorts, as black-bird counter measures...
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: liondani on February 06, 2015, 11:43:38 pm


I would suggest for BM to sell/short to them some bitUSD...after all he is the strongest proponent of the idea that it is a good business practice to lend money and pay interest for the privilege to lend them funds... :-*


0.02 BTS



#200% collateral from shorts, as black-bird counter measures...

your suggestion make sense...
we could make some experiments on DevShares before we made them here... (and I am not talking for your suggestion )

Sent from my ALCATEL ONE TOUCH 997D

Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Markus on February 07, 2015, 12:56:56 am
If they're buy orders at the feed, why they do not buy all the short orders that sell at the price feed?

It looks like this is a BUG!

Expired shorts are not matched against unlimited short orders. Selling BitUSD slightly below peg will get matched though.

Looks like about 3/4 of all BitUSD shorts are expired now. If BTS halves again before they get bought up the Black Swan flies in.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: sudo on February 07, 2015, 08:35:37 am
???
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: graffenwalder on February 07, 2015, 08:40:30 am
This brings up another question. Let's say DACX and a couple of other platforms, need a couple of million in bitassets. Will there be enough people willing to short, to provide them with what they need?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Gentso1 on February 07, 2015, 03:11:05 pm
I thought when shorts expired, they were forced to buy bitUSD?

"Short orders are forced to cover after 30 days by taking the best offers at the time. No fee is charged."http://wiki.bitshares.org/index.php/BitShares/Short (http://wiki.bitshares.org/index.php/BitShares/Short)
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: pc on February 07, 2015, 03:41:45 pm

It looks like this is a BUG!

Expired shorts are not matched against unlimited short orders. Selling BitUSD slightly below peg will get matched though.

There's a known bug that unlimited shorts aren't considered when a short with a higher interest rate and a limit less than 0.9 of the feed price exists. https://github.com/BitShares/bitshares/issues/1315

"Short orders are forced to cover after 30 days by taking the best offers at the time. No fee is charged.

Forced covers happen at the feed price or 10% below it.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: xeroc on February 07, 2015, 04:09:44 pm
an expiring short results in a FORCED cover? I thought exporation is different from margin calls?!?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: svk on February 07, 2015, 04:21:43 pm
an expiring short results in a FORCED cover? I thought exporation is different from margin calls?!?
These are expired successful shorts aka  cover orders. Around 400k bitUSD worth expired yesterday and should've been forced to cover at the feed price or up to +10%, but a bug is preventing that from happening it seems.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: xeroc on February 07, 2015, 04:39:47 pm
Hm .. ok .. my impression was that a expired short is different from a margin call in such that the expired short is auto-covered at exactly the feed and not above (below, depends on perspective)
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: pc on February 07, 2015, 05:23:19 pm
Hm .. ok .. my impression was that a expired short is different from a margin call in such that the expired short is auto-covered at exactly the feed and not above (below, depends on perspective)

That's the plan for the future, I think. Right now, both are treated the same.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: NewMine on February 07, 2015, 05:34:49 pm
Hm .. ok .. my impression was that a expired short is different from a margin call in such that the expired short is auto-covered at exactly the feed and not above (below, depends on perspective)

That's the plan for the future, I think. Right now, both are treated the same.

Well that definitely did not happen, otherwise my sell order would've been taken out 8% above the feed since all the sell orders and short orders below 10% over equaled nowhere near the amounts that expired.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Gentso1 on February 07, 2015, 05:47:16 pm

It looks like this is a BUG!

Expired shorts are not matched against unlimited short orders. Selling BitUSD slightly below peg will get matched though.

There's a known bug that unlimited shorts aren't considered when a short with a higher interest rate and a limit less than 0.9 of the feed price exists. https://github.com/BitShares/bitshares/issues/1315

"Short orders are forced to cover after 30 days by taking the best offers at the time. No fee is charged.

Forced covers happen at the feed price or 10% below it.
So the person or persons with the short in question, can they just let it ride forever? Are they still being charged interest?

How does this end ?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 07, 2015, 06:14:33 pm

It looks like this is a BUG!

Expired shorts are not matched against unlimited short orders. Selling BitUSD slightly below peg will get matched though.

There's a known bug that unlimited shorts aren't considered when a short with a higher interest rate and a limit less than 0.9 of the feed price exists. https://github.com/BitShares/bitshares/issues/1315

"Short orders are forced to cover after 30 days by taking the best offers at the time. No fee is charged.

Forced covers happen at the feed price or 10% below it.
So the person or persons with the short in question, can they just let it ride forever? Are they still being charged interest?

How does this end ?

They should eventually lose 10% of their BTS as people sell bitUSD to them for an instant 10% gain. However it looks like the 10% rule isn't working right now?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: bytemaster on February 07, 2015, 06:28:40 pm
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed. 
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: btswildpig on February 07, 2015, 06:36:00 pm
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed.

so , is the issue in the OP a bug or normal ?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: xeroc on February 07, 2015, 06:40:03 pm
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed.
above in terms of usd/bts or bts/usd?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: pc on February 07, 2015, 06:54:16 pm
above in terms of the GUI, below in terms of the CLI.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 07, 2015, 06:55:20 pm
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed.

So can anyone with BTS short bitUSD right now at 10% above the feed and make an instant 10% gain? Then this "backlog" should disappear very quickly.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: bytemaster on February 07, 2015, 07:21:35 pm
It will be covered by Monday is my prediction. 
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Markus on February 08, 2015, 12:35:08 am
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed. 

So expired short positions buy [the BitAsset] at feed price and normal short orders want to sell at the feed price. And the reason they are not matched is because of what? Because the expired don't pay transaction fees?
This just doesn't feel right, looks more like a mixup between ≥ and >.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: svk on February 08, 2015, 09:02:11 am
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed.

So can anyone with BTS short bitUSD right now at 10% above the feed and make an instant 10% gain? Then this "backlog" should disappear very quickly.

No, I tried and it doesn't work.. There are shorts from the feed price up to +10% right now and no orders are executing.

It will be covered by Monday is my prediction. 

How? They're not buying anything atm..
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: graffenwalder on February 08, 2015, 09:34:15 am
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed.

So can anyone with BTS short bitUSD right now at 10% above the feed and make an instant 10% gain? Then this "backlog" should disappear very quickly.

No, I tried and it doesn't work.. There are shorts from the feed price up to +10% right now and no orders are executing.

It will be covered by Monday is my prediction. 

How? They're not buying anything atm..
Just tested it, but the expired shorts are buying bitusd when you sell a bit over the price feed. (not selling into BTS sell orders of course)
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: svk on February 08, 2015, 09:39:09 am
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed.

So can anyone with BTS short bitUSD right now at 10% above the feed and make an instant 10% gain? Then this "backlog" should disappear very quickly.

No, I tried and it doesn't work.. There are shorts from the feed price up to +10% right now and no orders are executing.

It will be covered by Monday is my prediction. 

How? They're not buying anything atm..
Just tested it, but the expired shorts are buying bitusd when you sell a bit over the price feed. (not selling into BTS sell orders of course)

Did you sell bitUSD you already had or short it? Cause there are shorts right now at the feed price that aren't being executed..
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: graffenwalder on February 08, 2015, 10:43:25 am
Expired shorts do not pay fees.  They will sell to anyone with usd looking to sell at just above the feed.

So can anyone with BTS short bitUSD right now at 10% above the feed and make an instant 10% gain? Then this "backlog" should disappear very quickly.

No, I tried and it doesn't work.. There are shorts from the feed price up to +10% right now and no orders are executing.

It will be covered by Monday is my prediction. 

How? They're not buying anything atm..
Just tested it, but the expired shorts are buying bitusd when you sell a bit over the price feed. (not selling into BTS sell orders of course)

Did you sell bitUSD you already had or short it? Cause there are shorts right now at the feed price that aren't being executed..
Sold bitusd I had. But you're right. To hit a short, you would have to sell BTS a bit under the pricefeed. To hit the expired shorts you have to sell bitusd a bit above the price feed, like BM said.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: arhag on February 08, 2015, 12:56:17 pm
Sold bitusd I had. But you're right. To hit a short, you would have to sell BTS a bit under the pricefeed. To hit the expired shorts you have to sell bitusd a bit above the price feed, like BM said.

If the BitUSD short sells at the price feed are not being matched with BitUSD buy orders at the price feed (in this case cover orders from expired shorts), then that is a bug that needs to be fixed. That seems to be what is going on here. The question is when will it be fixed. Is this fix already in v0.6.0 and thus will be taken care of by block 1772200 or is another mandatory upgrade release going to be needed?

Until the fix, there is a simple way for shorts at the price feed to get matched with expired short cover orders (and thus reduce the amount of expired shorts in the process). Simply buy your own short with some spare BTS, then take the BitUSD you receive and sell it just the tiniest bit above (in BTS/BitUSD price) the price feed to match the expired shorts.

Edit: By the way, if it was designed this way on purpose so that actual BitUSD sellers exactly at the price feed could have priority over shorts so that they would be guaranteed to exit out of BitUSD within 30 days, then it is the wrong way to do it. I do think that if you have two BitUSD sell order at the same exact price (like the price feed) then the actual BitUSD sell order should have priority over the BitUSD short sell order. However, if there are no actual BitUSD sell orders at the price feed, then the expired short cover order should match with any short sell orders at the price feed.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: sudo on February 08, 2015, 02:19:49 pm
bug? or not?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 08, 2015, 02:59:33 pm
I just did a bitUSD short at a pricelimit of 115 BTS per USD. It didn't get matched even though it's within 10% of the feed, and it's not even showing up on the orderbook. Looks like there is a bug of some sort. It's pretty bad because it removes the automatic incentive there'd otherwise be to get rid of these expired calls, I have a feeling that if they stay on the books for too long it'll be a major sell signal.

Looks like normal orders that are up to 117 BTS per USD are not getting matched either. What can we do? We need to get rid of this ASAP.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: NewMine on February 08, 2015, 03:34:12 pm
I just did a bitUSD short at a pricelimit of 115 BTS per USD. It didn't get matched even though it's within 10% of the feed, and it's not even showing up on the orderbook. Looks like there is a bug of some sort. It's pretty bad because it removes the automatic incentive there'd otherwise be to get rid of these expired calls, I have a feeling that if they stay on the books for too long it'll be a major sell signal.

Looks like normal orders that are up to 117 BTS per USD are not getting matched either. What can we do? We need to get rid of this ASAP.

Yes, the 30 day limit was a terrible idea.

I would like to know if this forced 30 day cover worked in the past?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 08, 2015, 03:50:27 pm
I just did a bitUSD short at a pricelimit of 115 BTS per USD. It didn't get matched even though it's within 10% of the feed, and it's not even showing up on the orderbook. Looks like there is a bug of some sort. It's pretty bad because it removes the automatic incentive there'd otherwise be to get rid of these expired calls, I have a feeling that if they stay on the books for too long it'll be a major sell signal.

Looks like normal orders that are up to 117 BTS per USD are not getting matched either. What can we do? We need to get rid of this ASAP.

Yes, the 30 day limit was a terrible idea.

I would like to know if this forced 30 day cover worked in the past?

It would work perfectly if we were able to sell or short bitUSD into the forced cover at 10% above the feed. People doing this would earn an instant 10% on their trade so you'd see people rushing in to remove this giant forced cover while making a nice profit. But it seems like a bug of some kind is preventing it from happening. They were probably planning to fix this in 0.7, the market update, so it's terribly bad luck that the giant cover happened now.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: arhag on February 08, 2015, 03:51:35 pm
I just did a bitUSD short at a pricelimit of 115 BTS per USD. It didn't get matched even though it's within 10% of the feed,

Why would your short get matched if its price limit is 115 BTS/BitUSD (or 0.008696 BitUSD/BTS)? The current price feed is 99.63 BTS/BitUSD or 0.010037 BitUSD/BTS. This means the expired shorts should buy any BitUSD sell orders at a price of 0.010037 BitUSD/BTS or above, which your order obviously is not.

Also, expired shorts do not buy 10% below the feed (you are confusing that with margin called shorts). In this case 10% below the feed is 0.9 * 0.010037 BitUSD/BTS = 0.009033 BitUSD/BTS. Your short order has a price limit that is even below that! But even if your price limit was 0.0099 BitUSD/BTS it would still not be matched because it is below the price feed.

Edit: Nevermind. These numbers are all wrong. I wasn't actually looking at the client but rather bitsharesblocks.com and apparently there was some bug on the website (https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11272.msg183742#msg183742) that made it show the state of the market two days ago.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 08, 2015, 04:11:32 pm
I just did a bitUSD short at a pricelimit of 115 BTS per USD. It didn't get matched even though it's within 10% of the feed,

Why would your short get matched if its price limit is 115 BTS/BitUSD (or 0.008696 BitUSD/BTS)? The current price feed is 99.63 BTS/BitUSD or 0.010037 BitUSD/BTS. This means the expired shorts should buy any BitUSD sell orders at a price of 0.010037 BitUSD/BTS or above, which your order obviously is not.

Also, expired shorts do not buy 10% below the feed (you are confusing that with margin called shorts). In this case 10% below the feed is 0.9 * 0.010037 BitUSD/BTS = 0.009033 BitUSD/BTS. Your short order has a price limit that is even below that! But even if your price limit was 0.0099 BitUSD/BTS it would still not be matched because it is below the price feed.

It's a bit problematic that shorts aren't punished for expiring by getting forced to cover at a higher price, I'd assumed that would be the case to avoid situations like what we're currently seeing. But what I really don't understand is why my short at 115 BTS per bitUSD doesn't even show up on the orderbook. I'm really hoping this is a bug and not intentional.

 If we're not able to short bitassets at above the pricefeed (bitassets priced in BTS, so above the pricefeed == bitasset overvalued) then increased demand for bitassets will not result in increased demand for bitshares, because you will not be able to short into buy orders above the feed and thus can't profit from increasing bitasset supply by locking up BTS.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: toast on February 08, 2015, 04:21:00 pm
Shorts will be forced to cover 10% above the feed starting 2 hard forks from now. There was a discussion about this a few weeks ago when lots of CNY orders expired
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 08, 2015, 04:32:47 pm
Shorts will be forced to cover 10% above the feed starting 2 hard forks from now. There was a discussion about this a few weeks ago when lots of CNY orders expired

Is it a bug that current short orders at the feed price are not getting matched with the forced covers? I can't figure out how to help get rid of this thing, it seems to me like I'd have to sell slightly below the feed in order to get matched with it, so it would cost me money to do.

Also is it intentional that shorts above the price feed do not show on the orderbook (in BTS per bitasset, so above the price feed means bitasset is overvalued)?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: arhag on February 08, 2015, 04:36:35 pm
It's a bit problematic that shorts aren't punished for expiring by getting forced to cover at a higher price,

Why? The point of expiration is to provide BitAsset holders with a guarantee that they can exit into BTS within 30 days at or above the price feed (in BitAsset/BTS). That is still true. They will eventually be able to put a relative BitUSD sell order at 0% offset from the price feed and then just wait. We can guarantee that their order will be matched within 30 days. There is no need to force expired orders to buy 10% below the price feed, unless of course their collateral ratio drops below 200% in which case they should then be margin called and buy any BitUSD sells at a price that is above the price 10% below the price feed (BTW, this is probably a good time to bring this comment (https://github.com/BitShares/bitshares/issues/1317#issuecomment-73400846) to the attention of the developers).

I'd assumed that would be the case to avoid situations like what we're currently seeing.

As far as I can tell, the bug has to do with the expired short cover orders (at the price feed) not matching with the short sell orders (at the price feed). If that is the case, then that would indeed be a bug. But I have already offered the shorts frustrated by this bug a solution (https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=14075.msg183645#msg183645) until a proper fix is ready.


But what I really don't understand is why my short at 115 BTS per bitUSD doesn't even show up on the orderbook. I'm really hoping this is a bug and not intentional.

Hmm.. That sounds like a bug to me.

If we're not able to short bitassets at above the pricefeed (bitassets priced in BTS, so above the pricefeed == bitasset overvalued) then increased demand for bitassets will not result in increased demand for bitshares, because you will not be able to short into buy orders above the feed and thus can't profit from increasing bitasset supply by locking up BTS.

There are good reasons why the price feed was first introduced. We don't want the short market to drive the growth of BTS priced in the underlying asset of the BitAsset, that should be done by the market between actual BitUSD holders and BTS (or actual USD holders and BTS on outside exchanges). Removing the limitation could instead break the peg and drive the value of the BitAsset to zero. Now that particular problem doesn't necessary limit us from changing the short limit to slightly above (in BitAsset/BTS) the price feed, say even 10% above (since if it does not reflect outside reality the price feed won't follow the shorts). But the worry I have with that is that it prevents existing BitAsset holders from having the guarantee to exit into BTS within 30 days by simply offering to sell at the price feed. If the shorts are very eager to short sell the BitAsset, the actual BitAsset holders may be forced to sell their BitAsset at a 10% discount from the peg.


Shorts will be forced to cover 10% above the feed starting 2 hard forks from now. There was a discussion about this a few weeks ago when lots of CNY orders expired

Just to be clear, this is for margin called shorts only right? Expired shorts only buy up BitAsset sell orders down to (in BitAsset/BTS terms) the price feed, but not any lower than that, correct? I am saying this is based on this comment (https://github.com/BitShares/bitshares/issues/1317#issuecomment-71847747) by bytemaster, and also just what I find to be the reasonable and sensible thing to do to not unfairly punish expired shorts.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 08, 2015, 04:55:43 pm
Quote
Why? The point of expiration is to provide BitAsset holders with a guarantee that they can exit into BTS within 30 days at or above the price feed (in BitAsset/BTS). That is still true. They will eventually be able to put a relative BitUSD sell order at 0% offset from the price feed and then just wait. We can guarantee that their order will be matched within 30 days. There is no need to force expired orders to buy 10% below the price feed, unless of course their collateral ratio drops below 200% in which case they should then be margin called and buy any BitUSD sells at a price that is above the price 10% below the price feed (BTW, this is probably a good time to bring this comment to the attention of the developers).

Right this makes sense. As long as they'll get margin called if the collateral goes too low then there's nothing wrong with letting their order sit at the price feed. At first I thought it was unfair they wouldn't have to pay interest, but at high bitasset demand interest rate goes to 0 anyway.
Quote
There are good reasons why the price feed was first introduced. We don't want the short market to drive the growth of BTS priced in the underlying asset of the BitAsset, that should be done by the market between actual BitUSD holders and BTS (or actual USD holders and BTS on outside exchanges). Removing the limitation could instead break the peg and drive the value of the BitAsset to zero. Now that particular problem doesn't necessary limit us from changing the short limit to slightly above (in BitAsset/BTS) the price feed, say even 10% above (since if it does not reflect outside reality the price feed won't follow the shorts). But the worry I have with that is that it prevents existing BitAsset holders from having the guarantee to exit into BTS within 30 days by simply offering to sell at the price feed. If the shorts are very eager to short sell the BitAsset, the actual BitAsset holders may be forced to sell their BitAsset at a 10% discount from the peg.

When I say above the price feed i mean that the bitasset is overvalued (so feed is in BTS per bitasset). I get super confused when the feed is described the other way so this is how I have to think of it :P. If the feed is 100 BTS per bitUSD, then if there's a buy order at 115 BTS per bitUSD it should be possible to match that buy order and all other buy orders by shorting all the way down to the feed price for an instant expected profit (since you can expect bitasset price to tend towards the feed price). Then every time bitasset demand increases enough to make buy orders go above the feed, there will be an incentive to short the bitasset since you can be certain you will profit from the amount that the buy orders exceed the feed price. It should never be possible to short below the feed price (so short orders at 90 BTS per bitUSD should not be possible if the feed is at 100 BTS per bitUSD).
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 08, 2015, 06:01:19 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

BitUSD supply is now at 500k, and 24 H volume is at 200k making it number 5 on CMC :D
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: donkeypong on February 08, 2015, 06:03:24 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

BitUSD supply is now at 500k, and 24 H volume is at 200k making it number 5 on CMC :D

Still only worth a dollar, though. What's up with that?  ;)
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: bytemaster on February 08, 2015, 06:05:01 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

BitUSD supply is now at 500k, and 24 H volume is at 200k making it number 5 on CMC :D

And people claim you cannot sell 200K of BitUSD at anywhere near $1 in one day.   Looks like someone managed to exit their position at the FEED price.   In other words they bought up $200K worth of BTS without moving the price.   
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: arhag on February 08, 2015, 06:06:59 pm
When I say above the price feed i mean that the bitasset is overvalued (so feed is in BTS per bitasset). I get super confused when the feed is described the other way so this is how I have to think of it :P.

Normally I think of it in BTS/BitAsset as well. In this case, I switch to BitAsset/BTS because otherwise I don't think I would be able to accurately say "10% above the price feed". If the way the system is programmed is to buy BitAsset sell orders down to 10% below the price feed (in BitAsset/BTS), that means it will buy down to a price limit of p BitAsset/BTS where p = 0.9*f and f is the price feed in BitAsset/BTS. If I were to invert the price units, I would have a price limit of 1/p BTS/BitAsset and 1/p = (1/0.9)*(1/f) where the price feed is (1/f) BTS/BItAsset. That means the margin calls would buy BitAsset sell orders up to 11.1111% (1/0.9 - 1 = 1/9) above the price feed (in BTS/BitAsset). As much as I hate thinking in this backwards way, I prefer a nice number like 10% much more than a number with repeating decimals.

Right this makes sense. As long as they'll get margin called if the collateral goes too low then there's nothing wrong with letting their order sit at the price feed. At first I thought it was unfair they wouldn't have to pay interest, but at high bitasset demand interest rate goes to 0 anyway.

Actually, according to bytemaster's post (https://github.com/BitShares/bitshares/issues/1317#issuecomment-71847747), the expired post still pays interest. So if they have a non-zero interest rate, it provides them with an incentive to either cover before expiration or if they fail to do that before expiration they can just buy the BitUSD they were going to buy anyway to cover and use it to buy their expired shorts cover order. Considering the fact that you could not guarantee that you would match your short's cover rather than another short's cover (not to mention any legitimate BTS sell orders at or below, again in BitAsset/BTS, the price feed), I would feel a lot more comfortable with covering my short before it expires even if it had zero interest rate (after all you need to consider the opportunity cost of your BTS collateral).

If the feed is 100 BTS per bitUSD, then if there's a buy order at 115 BTS per bitUSD it should be possible to match that buy order and all other buy orders by shorting all the way down to the feed price for an instant expected profit (since you can expect bitasset price to tend towards the feed price). Then every time bitasset demand increases enough to make buy orders go above the feed, there will be an incentive to short the bitasset since you can be certain you will profit from the amount that the buy orders exceed the feed price.

One would certainly hope so (regarding the bolded part), or else the peg wouldn't be working well. But there is no reason why the lowest BitUSD sell/short order couldn't remain above 115 BTS/BitUSD over the following 30 days. Then if after those 30 days the price feed has moved up above 115 BTS/BitUSD, you could end up being forced to cover at a loss (even without a margin call).
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: arhag on February 08, 2015, 06:09:26 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

Well let's still make sure the bug (meaning expired short covers at the price feed should match with short sells at the price feed) is fixed.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: graffenwalder on February 08, 2015, 06:26:04 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

Well let's still make sure the bug (meaning expired short covers at the price feed should match with short sells at the price feed) is fixed.
Uhm, how did you come to the conclusion that everything got covered?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: svk on February 08, 2015, 06:49:55 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

Well let's still make sure the bug (meaning expired short covers at the price feed should match with short sells at the price feed) is fixed.
Uhm, how did you come to the conclusion that everything got covered?

A lot did get covered but not all, there are still six orders left worth around $200k, but like Rune said we're now down to 485k supply.

All in all quite impressive like BM pointed out :)
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: arhag on February 08, 2015, 06:53:17 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

Well let's still make sure the bug (meaning expired short covers at the price feed should match with short sells at the price feed) is fixed.
Uhm, how did you come to the conclusion that everything got covered?

I was just basing it off of what Rune said. But looking at the client, I can see that indeed there are still expired shorts remaining and they are not matching with the short sell orders at the price feed. Actually there is currently only one short sell order at the price feed for a quantity of 10.055 BitUSD. And there are 6 expired short positions which together will need to purchase approximately 205,280 BitUSD.

So is there anyone with some spare BitUSD around who wants to buy some cheap (of course knowing our luck the BTS price will drop even further) BTS?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: svk on February 08, 2015, 08:01:53 pm
Aaaand they're gone :)

That was impressive watching all that action in the last few minutes, at one point there were 6 shorts for about 60k bitUSD with collateral of 13 million BTS that got bought up on the next block :)
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: mf-tzo on February 08, 2015, 08:02:07 pm
I am confused..."Someone bought up $200k of bitusd without moving the price" How is BTS @ $23.3 mil market cap and this is not moving the price? BTS market cap is near all time low and we seem to be happy about it?

Can someone please explain what is normal in terms of market caps?
Do we want $100k bitusd and $100 mil BTS market cap?
Do we want $500k bitusd and $20 mil BTS market cap?

Is $1 mil bitusd and $10 mil BTS market cap acceptable?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: liondani on February 08, 2015, 09:16:24 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

BitUSD supply is now at 500k, and 24 H volume is at 200k making it number 5 on CMC :D

And people claim you cannot sell 200K of BitUSD at anywhere near $1 in one day.   Looks like someone managed to exit their position at the FEED price.   In other words they bought up $200K worth of BTS without moving the price.
and is that good?

just trying to understand...

Sent from my ALCATEL ONE TOUCH 997D
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: .yoshi on February 08, 2015, 09:36:28 pm
Looks like everything already got covered, crisis over folks :P

BitUSD supply is now at 500k, and 24 H volume is at 200k making it number 5 on CMC :D

And people claim you cannot sell 200K of BitUSD at anywhere near $1 in one day.   Looks like someone managed to exit their position at the FEED price.   In other words they bought up $200K worth of BTS without moving the price.
and is that good?

just trying to understand...

Sent from my ALCATEL ONE TOUCH 997D

yes, it is good. it suggests that BitUSD is functioning as intended

someone 'sold' $200k worth of BitUSD and the price remained very close to $1.00
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: svk on February 08, 2015, 09:43:39 pm
Daily volume now up to $385k, and looks like Coinmarketcap just started adding the internal exchange volume to the total volume for Bitshares even though it's not yet showing up in the Markets tab.
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: mf-tzo on February 08, 2015, 10:16:04 pm
The fact that the usd peg is working is great and we know for some time now that it is working.

The fact that someone bought those bitusd without moving the peg is also great.

The fact that despite this need to buy the bitusds to cover the position resulted in BTS to fall even slightly is not so great.

Now we have lower market cap in BTS and fewer bitusd in circulation..How is that good?

Shouldn't the increase demand for bitusd increase BTS price?

So I will ask again...Is $1 mil bitusd and $10 mil BTS market cap acceptable?

It seems to me that BTS price is not affected by the demand of the bitassets and as long as the BTS market cap is x3 of all the bitassets we are all happy? What am I missing here?
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: Rune on February 08, 2015, 10:17:00 pm
creating and covering bitUSD for BTS doesn't actually affect the market cap of BTS, it just moves the risk around among the economic actors.

I'm betting on good news from light wallet coming out tomorrow :)
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: arhag on February 08, 2015, 11:17:20 pm
Shouldn't the increase demand for bitusd increase BTS price?

In general, if the demand for BitAssets is coming from the outside and there are people willing to short at the price feed, then I think that is a safe way of looking at it. If it is within BitShares, I don't think it should have an effect. On the other hand if the person holding the short is "demanding" BitUSD so he can cover his short to unlock his BTS collateral to then dump for fiat, then it would actually cause a decrease in BTS price (and you would also notice the correlating decrease in BitUSD supply).

Basically, it is never as simple as "people demanding BitUSD" = "BTS price must go up".
Title: Re: A huge amount of shorts were expired. What will happen?
Post by: cass on February 08, 2015, 11:23:12 pm
Shouldn't the increase demand for bitusd increase BTS price?

In general, if the demand for BitAssets is coming from the outside and there are people willing to short at the price feed, then I think that is a safe way of looking at it. If it is within BitShares, I don't think it should have an effect. On the other hand if the person holding the short is "demanding" BitUSD so he can cover his short to unlock his BTS collateral to then dump for fiat, then it would actually cause a decrease in BTS price (and you would also notice the correlating decrease in BitUSD supply).

Basically, it is never as simple as "people demanding BitUSD" = "BTS price must go up".

thx for your explanation