BitShares Forum
Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: jaran on August 26, 2015, 04:14:47 am
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Augur is raising a lot. thoughts?
https://sale.augur.net/
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Augur is raising a lot. thoughts?
https://sale.augur.net/
They are, but the Reputation tokens are over priced right now. I wouldn't buy them at these prices.
Wait until they get dumped and buy in later. If you have BTS then you probably could just wait until BTS builds a decentralized prediction market service or just own a stake in the inevitable competitors to Augur which have a more clear and better crowd sale mechanism.
Augur from what I see has no advantage over any other group of developers who decide to take their algorithms and do the same thing. We'll probably see prediction markets everyhwere, on Bitcoin, Truthcoin, Bitshares, NXT, SAFE Network, Tauchain/Agoras, Omni, because the algorithms to set it up are already available and any group of developers can reverse engineer the code easily.
If you're trading stocks it's often a bad idea to buy into the hype. Augur has hype, but it doesn't actually have a final product. They also aren't offering the Gini coefficient so you don't even know the distribution of the tokens, so it's possible some super whale has over a million tokens and can dump them right after the sale. Due to the nature of the sale it's also hard to predict the percentage share you'll have in Rep.
In my opinion one of the most fair crowd sales we've ever had was AGS. While there was some problem with the last minute incentive to trade PTS for AGS, the actual design of the incentives was perfect. Everyone had an opportunity to get Bitshares for a reasonable price, and while some people had better days than others, it was fair in that you could see the daily trends.
The Augur crowd sale is weird. I've never seen any crowd sale like it, and it's so far from the norm that it's not easy to know what you'll get in the end. They might raise more money this way but you don't know enough information in my opinion for it to be considered good or bad.
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Bitshares AGS raised:
Total Donated 5,625.02597337 BTC
But that was during a time when Bitcoins were much higher priced, much more valuable. Raising 10,000 Bitcoins when Bitcoins are this cheap and during the XT/Core uncertainty is not much of an accomplishment in my opinion.
On the other hand if Bitcoin price goes up to $1000 a Bitcoin and they raise 5000+ Bitcoins, that is over $5 million dollars.
An important number to look at is the number of accounts. Augur has something like 3544 accounts? How many people could that be?
One thing I like a lot about the AGS model is that it lasted for 199 days. For those of us who don't have a lot of money, it gave us all an opportunity to donate. The crowd sale models which only last a month and which ask for millions of dollars, these favor people who are rich, or who have a lot of Bitcoins saved up to dump into a crowd sale.
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Augur is raising a lot. thoughts?
https://sale.augur.net/
They are, but the Reputation tokens are over priced right now. I wouldn't buy them at these prices.
I missed the crowedsale with Ethereum because i had the same thought.
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Just another casino of the blockchain... Super disruptive potential here, but they clearly launched the IPO with very good timing, as the first Ethereum DApp, while early ETH investors are cashing out 10x profits.
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Augur is raising a lot. thoughts?
https://sale.augur.net/
They are, but the Reputation tokens are over priced right now. I wouldn't buy them at these prices.
I missed the crowedsale with Ethereum because i had the same thought.
Me too, I didn't miss this one. The experience of actually creating an Augur account and an Ethereum account on the Augur crowdsale page was incredibly smooth.
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And 1 point you can also consider if you want to invest into Augur.
They are launching soonish and we are just talking about prediction markets. The falling market cap, let me realize that i need to diversify a little bit more, because i have BTS from foot to head and not much more in crypto space.
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I bought some REP, and plan to use Augur. I wonder how much you can earn for a little "community" work there.
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Augur is raising a lot. thoughts?
https://sale.augur.net/
They are, but the Reputation tokens are over priced right now. I wouldn't buy them at these prices.
I missed the crowedsale with Ethereum because i had the same thought.
Augur is to easily replicated. It's a prediction market but Bitshares could do the same and od it better. Bitshares can't currently do what Ethereum is trying to do so Ethereum has a niche in that it's a smart contract platform.
I would not invest in an app on Ethereum. in the middle of the Ethereum bubble and hype.
I do think long term Ethereum could worth as much as $50 each, because it's better than Litecoin and it's neck and neck with Litecoin, but I don't see Augur being near release in the current form and even if they did release it, I am not convinced the amount of reputations would provide for enough jobs to pay back I would pay in.
Good idea but it depends on a monopoly early on for the people buying Rep tokens to get more money out than they got in. I've already seen several decentralized prediction markets, one of them is also on Ethereum, you have Truthcoin, and Bitshares itself will have one too.
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I bought some REP, and plan to use Augur. I wonder how much you can earn for a little "community" work there.
Either prices to use August are higher than necessary or it won't be profitable for someone with relatively little rep to "work"...Economies of scale centralize things.
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Just another casino of the blockchain... Super disruptive potential here, but they clearly launched the IPO with very good timing, as the first Ethereum DApp, while early ETH investors are cashing out 10x profits.
This is closest to the truth. It's a good way for earlth ETH investors to diversify out but at the current crowdsale format and prices I don't know. I do think REP will be worth something, but I don't think it will be worth this much in the long term because anyone can dump REP.
How do you know it wont be dumped in favor of some other app?
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Augur is raising a lot. thoughts?
https://sale.augur.net/
They are, but the Reputation tokens are over priced right now. I wouldn't buy them at these prices.
I missed the crowedsale with Ethereum because i had the same thought.
Me too, I didn't miss this one. The experience of actually creating an Augur account and an Ethereum account on the Augur crowdsale page was incredibly smooth.
If Augur turns out to be a good move for you guys then great. The more money you guys have, the more BTS you can buy, so we all win together or we lose together as an industry, this includes Augur, Ethereum, NXT, Bitcoin, it's all interconnected.
But I'm not sure that Augur will be able to bring in enough revenue to be worth it. I think it will be copied, and I don't think in the current form it is anything special. I think in the long term maybe it can be something special but not right now so I'm risk adverse when it comes to Ethereum DApps.
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Augur from what I see has no advantage over any other group of developers who decide to take their algorithms and do the same thing. We'll probably see prediction markets everyhwere, on Bitcoin, Truthcoin, Bitshares, NXT, SAFE Network, Tauchain/Agoras, Omni, because the algorithms to set it up are already available and any group of developers can reverse engineer the code easily.
marketing, hype... "first" mover advantage?
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I am fascinated with every sale I see that is successful. Particularly now when we are so close to launching the BunkerShares pre-sale.
@luckybit.. you really think the 200 day sale makes that much difference to how people participated and contributed?
BunkerShares we planned to be 50 days. Every single pre-sale crowdfund analytic suggests this is the most optimal period. Actually slightly shorter.. but 50 days works better for us.
I agree that putting so much into something that can easily duplicated is a strange thing. The timing of it though like others noted.. is well done. It's another way for those cashing out of Eth to 'roll with it' on their gains if there were any. Fitting for an online gambling.. err.. umm.. futures platform perhaps.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3ht8rx/who_will_build_a_better_prediction_market_augur/
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Hahaha. I'd invest if it wasn't for the obvious psychology of ETHEREUM IPO DO-OVER!! :P
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If Ethereum is such a great development platform for developing smart contracts, why does Auger need $3million to build a prediction market into it?
And I assume that if Auger is crowdfunding they will create a UIA in Ethereum as a reward. Therefore if Auger becomes popular it wont be that beneficial for Ethereum because Ether wont be used as collateral - BitUSD wins again.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/3ht8rx/who_will_build_a_better_prediction_market_augur/
Hahaha
That thread is kinda like:
George Bush.. great President.. or greatest President?
:P