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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: puppies on January 18, 2016, 04:48:06 pm

Title: Adjusted prediction market
Post by: puppies on January 18, 2016, 04:48:06 pm

I created a prediction market to test creation, and settling.  It is asset BTCPREDICT.  I originally set it as an over under on the price of bitcoin at $450.  Bitcoin then decided to drop $90 and rebound $30.  As no bets have been matched, I have changed the over under price to $380.  I will almost certainly just end up selling some to myself before I settle the asset, but I wanted to be clear about the changes to the asset in case anyone does decide to buy in.

Title: Re: Adjusted prediction market
Post by: Empirical1.2 on January 18, 2016, 05:08:57 pm

Quote from: puppies on January 18, 2016, 04:48:06 pm

I created a prediction market to test creation, and settling.  It is asset BTCPREDICT.  I originally set it as an over under on the price of bitcoin at $450.  Bitcoin then decided to drop $90 and rebound $30.  As no bets have been matched, I have changed the over under price to $380.  I will almost certainly just end up selling some to myself before I settle the asset, but I wanted to be clear about the changes to the asset in case anyone does decide to buy in.

Interesting test. Obviously betting on the outcome of BTC is one of the easiest things to do if you hold BTC/altcoins.

If your goal was to attract more involvement you may have more success with an external event or an altcoin related event that it is not currently possible/easy to take a position on via altcoins.

Title: Re: Adjusted prediction market
Post by: clayop on January 18, 2016, 05:11:57 pm

We need to wait for next GUI release. The current version doesn't allow me to borrow the asset.

Title: Re: Adjusted prediction market
Post by: puppies on January 18, 2016, 05:52:27 pm

I don't really care if others join in.  I am just running a test, but since I'm changing the price I'm gonna settle on I wanted to be open about it so no one would feel cheated if they did end up joining in.

Title: Re: Adjusted prediction market
Post by: mf-tzo on January 18, 2016, 06:25:44 pm

when is the next gui expected so we can take these bets?

Title: Re: Adjusted prediction market
Post by: lil_jay890 on January 18, 2016, 07:08:30 pm

Quote from: mf-tzo on January 18, 2016, 06:25:44 pm

when is the next gui expected so we can take these bets?

When bill butler gets done moving into his apartment... which apparently has taken about a month.

Don't worry though, bitshares paid him the entire time.

Title: Re: Adjusted prediction market
Post by: svk on January 18, 2016, 10:36:27 pm

Quote from: mf-tzo on January 18, 2016, 06:25:44 pm

when is the next gui expected so we can take these bets?

Wednesday most likely.

Title: Re: Adjusted prediction market
Post by: morpheus on January 18, 2016, 11:09:58 pm

Quote from: svk on January 18, 2016, 10:36:27 pm

Quote from: mf-tzo on January 18, 2016, 06:25:44 pm

when is the next gui expected so we can take these bets?

Wednesday most likely.

Nice  +5%