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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: sports-owner on January 21, 2016, 03:55:12 pm

Title: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 21, 2016, 03:55:12 pm
You can now take either side of a prediction market in the GUI.

To celebrate I have created two new prediction markets
SPORTS.NFLAFC will track the AFC Championship game.  Short and sell if you believe that Patriots will win.  Buy and hold if you think the Broncos will win.
SPORTS.NFLNFC will track the NFC Championship game.  Short and sell if you believe the Cardinals will win.  Buy and hold if you think Think the Panthers will win.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Empirical1.2 on January 21, 2016, 06:31:26 pm
 +5% Cool.

You might want to explain it in more detail for people that are not familiar with prediction markets and shorting.

Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Akado on January 21, 2016, 06:34:56 pm
For anyone who is interested, there's this tutorial by xeroc
http://docs.bitshares.org/bitshares/user/pm.html
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: puppies on January 21, 2016, 10:04:14 pm
I settled my test prediction market asset in the GUI today.  It worked, but the fee to settle is 200bts. 
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Akado on January 21, 2016, 10:24:12 pm
I settled my test prediction market asset in the GUI today.  It worked, but the fee to settle is 200bts.

Isn't that a little too high? Why 200?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: puppies on January 21, 2016, 10:34:29 pm
I definitely think its too high.  The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset.  Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.

What does everyone else think?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: abit on January 22, 2016, 12:27:08 am
I definitely think its too high.  The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset.  Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.

What does everyone else think?
Aren't you a LTM?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: morpheus on January 22, 2016, 01:06:30 am
I try to borrow and get the message:

No valid feeds for SPORTS.NFLNFC

edit:  works with firefox, not with chrome
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: puppies on January 22, 2016, 01:11:42 am
I definitely think its too high.  The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset.  Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.

What does everyone else think?
Aren't you a LTM?

Yes.  40bts is not too bad.  I am also making PM purchases of 1000 plus bts so its a small fee if the PM ends up true. 

I think this fee is too large to help us get traction with our PM feature.  It is too high to build a business around. 
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Riverhead on January 22, 2016, 01:15:23 am
For anyone who is interested, there's this tutorial by xeroc
http://docs.bitshares.org/bitshares/user/pm.html (http://docs.bitshares.org/bitshares/user/pm.html)

Thanks for that :). Go Piggers!
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Chronos on January 22, 2016, 03:35:31 am
This is revolutionary.

One question. From the docs:

Quote
Since PM-Assets can technically be pegged by any other asset, you may need to pay USD (or anything else) instead of BTS.
However, the asset is still backed by BTS, correct? So, in a rising BTS market, winners stand to gain more than they would in a falling BTS market?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 22, 2016, 06:13:51 am
This is revolutionary.

One question. From the docs:

Quote
Since PM-Assets can technically be pegged by any other asset, you may need to pay USD (or anything else) instead of BTS.
However, the asset is still backed by BTS, correct? So, in a rising BTS market, winners stand to gain more than they would in a falling BTS market?

You are 100% correct in challenging the efficacy of prediction markets with a bts base.  Sadly there are no sub markets that are currently liquid enough to use.  With todays news I am thinking my next market may be openUSD based.  If there is enough traffic this could solve some of our problems.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: tbone on January 22, 2016, 06:18:12 am
I definitely think its too high.  The problem is that its the same operation as force settling any other bitasset.  Some may not want to lower the fee for fear that more people will force settle.

What does everyone else think?
Aren't you a LTM?

Yes.  40bts is not too bad.  I am also making PM purchases of 1000 plus bts so its a small fee if the PM ends up true. 

I think this fee is too large to help us get traction with our PM feature.  It is too high to build a business around.

Currently 200 BTS is only 60 cents ($0.60).  The problem is what happens when the price of BTS goes much higher?    In general, we need to stop setting fees in BTS and instead set them in something stable, probably either BitUSD or BitCNY.  This is why I think the initiative to move towards percentage-based transfer fees is so important.  You can't have fees that vary based on the changing value of BTS.  Businesses can't build around that.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Chronos on January 22, 2016, 05:38:52 pm
BTS fees can easily be adjusted by the committee, to keep up with changes in underlying value.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: BunkerChainLabs-DataSecurityNode on January 22, 2016, 07:01:48 pm
BTS fees can easily be adjusted by the committee, to keep up with changes in underlying value.

Trust me.. there is nothing 'easy' about adjusting fees in the Committee. We just currently make it look that way! :)
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 24, 2016, 11:48:54 pm
First game is over.  Those that were long on SPORTS.NFLAFC win.  I will close the market in a couple of hours.  I want to give anyone that borrowed and didn't sell a chance to close their borrow position. 

Also its now time for the second game.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 12:33:18 am
No feed for NFC game?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 25, 2016, 01:03:28 am
No feed for NFC game?

What do you mean?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 25, 2016, 01:40:47 am
alright.  I am about to close the market.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sudo on January 25, 2016, 03:56:15 pm
GUI not easy enough

can we just  big -middle- little  for luckyball
     win- draw-lose  for game
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 05:24:09 pm
No feed for NFC game?

What do you mean?


The OP said short and sell for one condition and buy and hold for another. There was nothing for sale and I couldn't short.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: morpheus on January 25, 2016, 05:58:41 pm
 +5% +5% +5%

Are you going to do a PM for the Super Bowl?

Can open bids, asks, and collateral positions be cancelled at the beginning of the game?

Can these PMs be created through the gui at this point in time?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: morpheus on January 25, 2016, 06:04:45 pm
No feed for NFC game?

What do you mean?


The OP said short and sell for one condition and buy and hold for another. There was nothing for sale and I couldn't short.

So participants have to trust the person or people who created the PM instead of a decentralized oracle of some sort?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 06:05:32 pm
+5% +5% +5%

Are you going to do a PM for the Super Bowl?

Can open bids, asks, and collateral positions be cancelled at the beginning of the game?

Can these PMs be created through the gui at this point in time?

Already there :) . Look for SPORTS.SBLAFC:BTS/USD/CNY/BTC asset markets.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 07:53:06 pm
Care to explain how it works?


I have no idea - I just saw it while looking at their other assets. I'm guessing eventually a feed will be provided so we can short?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: xeroc on January 25, 2016, 08:01:58 pm
A feed resolves the prediction market:
Read more about the idea:
http://docs.bitshares.eu/bitshares/user/pm.html
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 08:09:35 pm
A feed resolves the prediction market:
Read more about the idea:
http://docs.bitshares.eu/bitshares/user/pm.html (http://docs.bitshares.eu/bitshares/user/pm.html)

So we need to borrow via the cli?
Code: [Select]
borrow_asset <account> <amount> <PMsymbol> <1:1-amount> true

Example: borrow_asset riverhead 100 SPORTS.SBLAFC BTS true
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: xeroc on January 25, 2016, 08:13:15 pm
A feed resolves the prediction market:
Read more about the idea:
http://docs.bitshares.eu/bitshares/user/pm.html (http://docs.bitshares.eu/bitshares/user/pm.html)

So we need to borrow via the cli?
Code: [Select]
borrow_asset <account> <amount> <PMsymbol> <1:1-amount> true

Example: borrow_asset riverhead 100 SPORTS.SBLAFC BTS true
I think in the newest version you can just borrow as usual with a fixed  collateral ratio of 1x ..
you still need to sell those shares though
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 08:17:15 pm
I think in the newest version you can just borrow as usual with a fixed  collateral ratio of 1x ..
you still need to sell those shares though


that was it. My wallet server wasn't on the update from the 21st.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Riverhead on January 25, 2016, 10:11:09 pm

Eh. I've got DEN for the win. Anyone thinks the Jags can take em I have open orders ;)
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 26, 2016, 04:43:18 am
I currently have 4 PMs open.

SPORTS.SBLAFC will be worth 1 BTS if the Broncos beat the Panthers in the SuperBowl.

REPNOMTRUMP will be worth 1 BTS is Donald Trump is selected as the Republican nominee for President of the United States.,

DEMNOMCLINTON will be worth 1 BTS if Hillary Clinto is selected as the Democrat nominee for President of the United States.

REPGENSIXTEEN will be worth 1 BTS if the Republican nominee is elected as the next President of the United States.


At this point you are reliant on me to close the markets out accurately.  I would make these committee fed assets, but I have heard nothing from the committee leading me to believe they are interested in doing this.  If there is anyone else that would like to step up to be part of a multi sig account to close these out I am willing to consider it.

If there are any other uncertain outcomes you would like to see a PM for please let me know.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: morpheus on January 26, 2016, 06:19:25 pm
[member=41441]sports-owner[/member]

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: xeroc on January 26, 2016, 07:10:25 pm
Great idea .. use a privatized prediction market, find trustworthy resolvers, bring liquidity and become rich :)
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: hrossik on January 26, 2016, 08:55:39 pm
From the moment I read about PMs on Bitshares I have been thinking about how we could make them more useful ( I don't care about outcomes of US elections too much, nor sports ). And I just found following idea, what do you think about it?
Quote
Hanson has been a vocal proponent of using prediction markets (or what he also calls “idea futures”) to reform how we deal with controversies in science, academia, and politics. In "Could Gambling Save Science (http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/gamble.html)", he writes:
Quote
If the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?
Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.
This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.

There are more ideas for usage of PMs. Here is the source (https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/3sjtar/a_robin_hanson_primer/).
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sudo on January 27, 2016, 01:54:04 am
make it esay enough for users
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: svk on January 27, 2016, 07:11:18 am
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: twitter on January 27, 2016, 07:17:38 am
 +5% +5%
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: TravelsAsia on January 27, 2016, 01:44:00 pm
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Empirical1.2 on January 27, 2016, 03:31:37 pm
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

I don't know if there's anything useful here, but this is a political market that gained traction pretty fast and seems fairly simple to use.
https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Featured

I think the fact that you need to short and sell is the thing that complicates BTS prediction markets the most for the end user.

Also many users might be familiar with or want to make comparisons with traditional betting odds.
So it would be really good if the current PM price was also shown in traditional odds so people would know if it was a better/worse bet than they could get elsewhere. http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-convert-odds

Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: iHashFury on January 27, 2016, 03:41:06 pm
Should we have a prefix for a prediction market to stop asset names getting untidy?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 27, 2016, 04:03:52 pm
[member=41441]sports-owner[/member]

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Here you are.

http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDE
http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVE

enjoy
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: oldmine on January 27, 2016, 04:14:24 pm
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2016/2000
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 27, 2016, 04:24:33 pm
I'm not qualified to write these markets nor to close them out.  You could create a UIA and call it SCIENCE then open prediction markets that are backed by SCIENCE.  You could issue SCIENCE only to qualified Scientist. These Scientists could then bet, and be rewarded with more SCIENCE if they win.  I don't know how you could give them a monetary benefit outside of sharedropping on top of the SCIENCE asset, since we wouldn't want non scientist to be able to purchase SCIENCE and bet with it 

From the moment I read about PMs on Bitshares I have been thinking about how we could make them more useful ( I don't care about outcomes of US elections too much, nor sports ). And I just found following idea, what do you think about it?
Quote
Hanson has been a vocal proponent of using prediction markets (or what he also calls “idea futures”) to reform how we deal with controversies in science, academia, and politics. In "Could Gambling Save Science (http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/gamble.html)", he writes:
Quote
If the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?
Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.
This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.

There are more ideas for usage of PMs. Here is the source (https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/3sjtar/a_robin_hanson_primer/).
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Akado on January 27, 2016, 06:48:02 pm
Should we have a prefix for a prediction market to stop asset names getting untidy?

 +5%
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: TravelsAsia on January 28, 2016, 10:58:04 pm
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png

Anyone else like this look? It would make life so much easier for anyone wanting to participate that doesn't have a crypto background?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Akado on January 28, 2016, 11:01:24 pm
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png

Anyone else like this look? It would make life so much easier for anyone wanting to participate that doesn't have a crypto background?

Never used something like that but seems simple, up or down, potential payout, etc. It immediately gives you the info you need. Complement that with a "help" feature/button and documentation to explain how to do it with more detail and examples and people should get it.

Seems pretty straightforward.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: morpheus on January 29, 2016, 12:45:19 am
[member=41441]sports-owner[/member]

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Here you are.

http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDE
http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVE

enjoy

Thanks

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1344639.new#new (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1344639.new#new)
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21225.0.html (https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21225.0.html)
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: morpheus on January 29, 2016, 12:48:39 am
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/ (http://www.augur.net/)
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: TravelsAsia on January 29, 2016, 01:03:21 am
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/ (http://www.augur.net/)

if we did anything close to either Augur or the link I posted above, it would be a good direction. Friendly is key!
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: svk on January 29, 2016, 06:26:13 am
Great feedback guys, thanks!
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: fav on January 29, 2016, 06:28:34 am
I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/ (http://www.augur.net/)

and you can test the early alpha too
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 30, 2016, 01:29:57 am
[member=40976]morpheus[/member] Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

[member=602]fuzzy[/member] I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: puppies on January 30, 2016, 02:40:38 am
If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on January 30, 2016, 02:47:50 am
If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.

I may take you up on that.  the committee trade account is something I hadn't thought of.  That could be the perfect solution.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: fuzzy on January 30, 2016, 05:19:02 pm
[member=40976]morpheus[/member] Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

[member=602]fuzzy[/member] I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

can we get a little group to do so? 

also, remember anytime you sharedrop on beyond bitcoin volunteers and attendees, i will do my best to plug your token...unless i find it ridiculous, though hilarious, like (SPERM)...
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: Akado on January 30, 2016, 08:47:22 pm
If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.

[member=9301]puppies[/member]
Could you create one for "Bitcoin price inferior to $300 American Dollars before the halving?" Idk maybe with a bit more detail like "according to bitstamp" or something like that.



I think that's really the safer method and would set a good precedent. Either do that or allow people to vote for a "Prediction Markets Committee" where people voted in would share the multi signature account and serve as oracles. Don't know if that's over complicating things. I like the idea of using your shared committee account to do that

It will also be awesome to start these markets and tweet about them! People will start to come. Maybe make a thread where people can request what markets they would like to be done and your account would create them, what do you think? Maybe having a prediction markets section for that where we would then have on thread per market where people could discuss about them. The faster we do this the more market share we can grab.

People are impatiently waiting for augur and we can start immediately!
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: tonyk on January 30, 2016, 09:13:58 pm
[member=120]xeroc[/member] should shed some light on how exactly are PM assets reusable? (i.e. what needs to happen/be done before they are reused.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: svk on January 30, 2016, 10:27:16 pm
Fyi i will be revamping the use of the descriptions field for prediction markets to be a serialized json object.

This is similar to how we defined delegate info in BTS 1, only this time the GUI will construct the json for you.

I think expiry, short_name, primary_markets and condition should be included as descriptive fields, what else do you think would be good to have?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: puppies on January 31, 2016, 07:30:05 pm
[member=40976]morpheus[/member] Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

[member=602]fuzzy[/member] I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

can we get a little group to do so? 

also, remember anytime you sharedrop on beyond bitcoin volunteers and attendees, i will do my best to plug your token...unless i find it ridiculous, though hilarious, like (SPERM)...
I sent some REPGENSIXTEEN to my twitter sharebits account to help out, but I don't think its shown up yet.  Is the bot deposit function working properly?  Maybe I am just doing something wrong.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on February 01, 2016, 07:19:37 am
I have set SPORTS.SBLAFC to be resolved by commitee-trade.  I have created a new asset BTSPREDICT in response to https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/43iyiq/will_bitshares_hit_12000000_in_market_cap_in/.  BTSPREDICT is to be resolved by the committee-account.  I have also modified WTICRUDE and SPFIVE to be resolved by the committee-account.  We will see which way of resolving works best. 
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: noisy on February 01, 2016, 07:23:40 am
In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on February 01, 2016, 07:29:32 am
In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.

I agree.  Also being able to use numbers would be very useful.  While you are at it allow me to reuse markets.  EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled.  So names can be reused.
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: svk on February 01, 2016, 08:12:41 am
In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.

I agree.  Also being able to use numbers would be very useful.  While you are at it allow me to reuse markets.  EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled.  So names can be reused.

Did you see my post about adding description fields for assets?

Some fields I'm thinking would be useful are:

Any more you'd like to see? I could add an alternative symbol field that could include numbers..

What would you like to see included
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: sports-owner on February 01, 2016, 08:38:04 am
Having as secondary description that would show up in the gui that we could use numbers in would be very userful.  It would be nice if WTICRUDE could show as WTICRUDE-16-12-30-20:00:00-$40.00 for example.  Preferred market would be great once we get enough bitasset liquidity to collateralize PMs with USD CNY or BTC.  Expiry and short and long descriptions would also be great.  If you could find a way to have borrow and sell be a single click in the GUI I think that would be a great simplifying feature as well.  Would have to explain somewhere why it takes more upfront to short an asset.  Thanks for all your hard work SVK.


In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.

I agree.  Also being able to use numbers would be very useful.  While you are at it allow me to reuse markets.  EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled.  So names can be reused.

Did you see my post about adding description fields for assets?

Some fields I'm thinking would be useful are:
  • A long description
  • Preferred market, if you want the GUI to link to a non-BTS pair for example
  • Expiry
  • Short description of the condition

Any more you'd like to see? I could add an alternative symbol field that could include numbers..

What would you like to see included
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: xeroc on February 01, 2016, 09:59:18 am
From what I realized by tests, we can reset the global_settle flag, but due to the fact that we cannot remove the settlement price, we cannot yet reuse prediction market assets.
I would propose to have the settlement price expire similar to price feeds by a definable parameter .. after that time, the asset should be re-useable to other prediction marktes if the global settle flag is reset.
before the expiration of the settlement price, the issue could withdraw customers unsettled assets, settle them for them and return the earnings (if any) minus fees or so.

But we certainly need to update the graphene base for this. Not sure if it requires a hardfork though, I assume we do!
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: noisy on February 01, 2016, 08:59:26 pm
BTW.. the title of this topic is a lie.

we - bitshares community - should name things properly. We should stop overpromise things. Right now this is at most a Proof of Concept.



Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: puppies on February 01, 2016, 09:55:53 pm
BTW.. the title of this topic is a lie.

we - bitshares community - should name things properly. We should stop overpromise things. Right now this is at most a Proof of Concept.

How so?
Title: Re: Prediction Markets now available in GUI
Post by: morpheus on February 02, 2016, 06:37:22 am
I have set SPORTS.SBLAFC to be resolved by commitee-trade.  I have created a new asset BTSPREDICT in response to https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/43iyiq/will_bitshares_hit_12000000_in_market_cap_in/.  BTSPREDICT is to be resolved by the committee-account.  I have also modified WTICRUDE and SPFIVE to be resolved by the committee-account.  We will see which way of resolving works best.

Would it be possible to resolve by price feed?