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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: noisy on March 30, 2016, 10:58:19 pm

Title: Bitshares PM on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help us simplify that!
Post by: noisy on March 30, 2016, 10:58:19 pm: We got great coverage about our Prediction Market feature.... and that is bad thing, because our prediction market is terrible.

(http://i.imgur.com/pdLETbU.png) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENxBmyswSuo)
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENxBmyswSuo

Our core developer spent 20 minutes describing how this works... and as people say in youtube coments:

(http://i.imgur.com/ZbScJHT.png)

This is obvious that no one would spent this amount of time to investigate how this works... and if someone will not be sure, simply will be too afraid to use it.

Amanda also didn't decide create her own prediction market smartcion... i guess... mostly because of price. I am sure, that if that would cost her only let say 100 BTS, she would create that asset.

My thoughts:

- short selling is too complicated for average Joe. I would like to just have to buttons - [BET A] or [BET not A]
- prediction smartcoins should be cheaper. Why? Because very often they will be live only... for example one week (because next football match is in next sunday). Right now there is no way to reuse those smartcoins after they are "decided".

Having "feature" like that makes us more harm than profit. Don't believe me? Go to youtube and read people comments.

I am not writing this because I want to complain. I am writing this because I believe that together we can design better look and feel for that feature.
Title: Re: Bitshares prediction market on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help!
Post by: noisy on March 30, 2016, 11:46:27 pm: I thought that this cannot be so easily simplify. The reason why I thought that is the fact that on normal betting site people are betting against
bookmaker. The problem is... that on blockchain people bet against each other. So, there is not way of defining two values which can be used for those two buttons. Right?

Not really..

Of course we always will have a chicken and egg problem, but if order book is not empty, we should have equivalent of "best price" button on coinbase.

(http://i.imgur.com/ZUEjZTJ.png)

This buttons should use taker strategy, and should check what price they can offer for specific amount of money. Actually we already have something similar implemented. Where?

(http://i.imgur.com/3KLNsKt.png)

(http://i.imgur.com/F0pjoTF.png)

(http://i.imgur.com/WEwVzhs.png)

The problem with empty books should be handled by PM smartcoin issuer. Yes, he should be a bookmaker, and some people even understand that:

(http://i.imgur.com/CbPmeOz.png)
Title: Re: Bitshares prediction market on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help!
Post by: puppies on March 30, 2016, 11:58:47 pm: I like your ideas in the second post noisy. We already have a single button to borrow and short.
Title: Re: Bitshares prediction market on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help!
Post by: noisy on March 31, 2016, 12:02:13 am: One more quote from YouTube:

(http://i.imgur.com/EyHQ7DH.png)

OFFTOPIC:

@JonnyBitcoin created a PM market MILLLIONTDD - https://bitshares.openledger.info/#/market/MILLLIONTDD_BTS

You can upvote this thread on TDD subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheDailyDecrypt/comments/4cniv4/millliontdd_bet_whether_tdd_will_have_1_mln_views/

good timing ;)
Title: Re: Bitshares PM on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help us simplify that!
Post by: mike623317 on April 01, 2016, 01:35:26 am: i agree. I dont find it intuitive to use at all. Neither did amanda johnson, Adam B. Levine or my colleagues for that matter.
Either we're all wrong or usability issues will sooner or later need to be addressed imo.
Title: Re: Bitshares PM on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help us simplify that!
Post by: onceuponatime on April 01, 2016, 01:56:15 am: Quote from: mike623317 on April 01, 2016, 01:35:26 am
i agree. I dont find it intuitive to use at all. Neither did amanda johnson, Adam B. Levine or my colleagues for that matter.
Either we're all wrong or usability issues will sooner or later need to be addressed imo.

Owning and running a casino, or programming the slot machines, is a lot less intuitive than pulling the levers on a one armed bandit. Most of the users will be simply placing their bets. Those who want to be the "house" will undertake the learning curve.
Title: Re: Bitshares PM on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help us simplify that!
Post by: puppies on April 01, 2016, 03:08:53 am: Quote from: onceuponatime on April 01, 2016, 01:56:15 am
Quote from: mike623317 on April 01, 2016, 01:35:26 am
i agree. I dont find it intuitive to use at all. Neither did amanda johnson, Adam B. Levine or my colleagues for that matter.
Either we're all wrong or usability issues will sooner or later need to be addressed imo.

Owning and running a casino, or programming the slot machines, is a lot less intuitive than pulling the levers on a one armed bandit. Most of the users will be simply placing their bets. Those who want to be the "house" will undertake the learning curve.

I agree. It's orders of magnitude easier to bet on a pm than to create one.
Title: Re: Bitshares PM on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help us simplify that!
Post by: hcf27 on April 01, 2016, 02:59:29 pm: I think betting is simple but creating the market is impossible for someone with no technical knowledge (linux, python, etc).

It wouldnt be a problem if we had people creating predictions markets but there is hardly any markets out there, this its either because 1)nobody understands how to create one or 2)its too expensive even with a LTM.
Title: Re: Bitshares PM on Daily Decrypt. THIS IS TO COMPLICATED! Help us simplify that!
Post by: yvv on April 01, 2016, 03:22:45 pm: Quote from: hcf27 on April 01, 2016, 02:59:29 pm
It wouldnt be a problem if we had people creating predictions markets but there is hardly any markets out there, this its either because 1)nobody understands how to create one or 2)its too expensive even with a LTM.

More likely, it is because of lack of ideas which are attractive enough to make it worth creating a PM.