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Main => General Discussion => Topic started by: bitmeat on August 27, 2014, 04:27:07 am

Title: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 27, 2014, 04:27:07 am
1. DOWN - CORRECTION

First, everybody and their mom got all too excited and shorted the heck out of BitUSD chasing that $1/BTSX dream all too soon.

Right now BitUSD is at a big discount - incentive to buy.
All of that happened at the same time, so right now around 31BTSX/BitUSD there is a margin call frenzy waiting to happen. Once it happens, it should generate a huge short squeeze, effectively correcting BitUSD to where it needs to be.

2. Then up we go...

If BTSX starts getting embedded even in small time businesses, it can not be too low.

With a limited supply of BTSX, imagine $10M trying to convert USD -> BTC -> BTSX -> BitUSD. Do you know the crazy amount of margin people would have to put to short 10M BitUSD?

Furthermore this will drive the price of BTSX up. Ideally we want a gateway USD <-> BitUSD, otherwise people won't like the fact that by the time it gets through the 4 steps they have run up the price of BitUSD.

I suppose they could do USD -> BTC -> BitUSD on something like BTER. That's a bit better.

Still though, the margin required for that kinds of BitUSD is insane.

At 20 BTSX/USD that means even if EVERY SINGLE holder of BTSX shorted BitUSD, you could only create $100M BitUSD. And not to mention that's just one assest.

Take a look at this http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook

Look at the stats at the bottom. This is just FOREX traders who actually decided to register with this site their real accounts.

Avg. Deposit :   $77,973.88
Avg. Account Profit :   $27,688.4
Avg. Account Loss :   -$5,576.42
Total Funds :   $2,034,338,424.34

That's $2B from just FOREX traders, who don't even know if their MetaTrader brokers are fair to them or not (software is designed to actually screw them over)

Imagine $2B trying to trade within BTSX. The cost of BTSX just to handle the deposits would need to be close to $10/BTSX !!!

And to reiterate that's just FOREX. Stocks/bonds/futures/options.

----

Now, I still think we will see a BTSX sell off and BitUSD run up short squeeze simply because folks clustered their margin call at the same spot around 30-31 BTSX/BitUSD.

Disclaimer: Just my opinion... no idea what will actually happen, but will watch with great interest.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $0.10
Post by: bitmeat on August 27, 2014, 04:31:45 am
By the way 31 BTSX/BitUSD is equivalent to BTSX/BTC of 0.000063. So we are kinda there already. It is interesting to see how BitUSD reacts to the extreme spikes. So far it's been mostly stable.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: luckybit on August 27, 2014, 04:36:39 am
1. DOWN - CORRECTION

First, everybody and their mom got all too excited and shorted the heck out of BitUSD chasing that $1/BTSX dream all too soon.

Right now BitUSD is at a big discount - incentive to buy.
All of that happened at the same time, so right now around 31BTSX/BitUSD there is a margin call frenzy waiting to happen. Once it happens, it should generate a huge short squeeze, effectively correcting BitUSD to where it needs to be.

2. Then up we go...

If BTSX starts getting embedded even in small time businesses, it can not be too low.

With a limited supply of BTSX, imagine $10M trying to convert USD -> BTC -> BTSX -> BitUSD. Do you know the crazy amount of margin people would have to put to short 10M BitUSD?

Furthermore this will drive the price of BTSX up. Ideally we want a gateway USD <-> BitUSD, otherwise people won't like the fact that by the time it gets through the 4 steps they have run up the price of BitUSD.

I suppose they could do USD -> BTC -> BitUSD on something like BTER. That's a bit better.

Still though, the margin required for that kinds of BitUSD is insane.

At 20 BTSX/USD that means even if EVERY SINGLE holder of BTSX shorted BitUSD, you could only create $100M BitUSD. And not to mention that's just one assest.

Take a look at this http://www.myfxbook.com/community/outlook

Look at the stats at the bottom. This is just FOREX traders who actually decided to register with this site their real accounts.

Avg. Deposit :   $77,973.88
Avg. Account Profit :   $27,688.4
Avg. Account Loss :   -$5,576.42
Total Funds :   $2,034,338,424.34

That's $2B from just FOREX traders, who don't even know if their MetaTrader brokers are fair to them or not (software is designed to actually screw them over)

Imagine $2B trying to trade within BTSX. The cost of BTSX just to handle the deposits would need to be close to $10/BTSX !!!

And to reiterate that's just FOREX. Stocks/bonds/futures/options.

----

Now, I still think we will see a BTSX sell off and BitUSD run up short squeeze simply because folks clustered their margin call at the same spot around 30-31 BTSX/BitUSD.

Disclaimer: Just my opinion... no idea what will actually happen, but will watch with great interest.

If people do that I guess buy as much BitUSD as you can.
I'm skeptical it will get that low if BitBTC comes online but who knows.

The best gateways at this time are the regulated exchanges. Contact the exchanges and get them to accept BitUSD as the main USD for transactions on their network.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 27, 2014, 04:44:41 am
Well think of it this way - there are easy BTSX to be made if it gets to 31 BitUSD/BTSX. It's like stop hunting, except for people know where the stops are clustered.

Of course nobody can predict the market with 100% certainty, but this one seems like a no brainer to me...

The second scenario I expect will take a lot longer to materialize, and it may not even be BTSX when it happens, so upside potential is not withou risk, but at the moment BTSX is well positioned to deliver on it.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 27, 2014, 07:16:14 am
Woo-hoo! It appears market is $35K BitUSD away from all hell breaking loose (well not really, but at least some short squeeze action should occur there).

Looks like those who want to have fun with the market can buy BitUSD until 32 then shorting it at a better price...

Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $0.10
Post by: bitwiz on August 27, 2014, 07:23:58 am
By the way 31 BTSX/BitUSD is equivalent to BTSX/BTC of 0.000063. So we are kinda there already. It is interesting to see how BitUSD reacts to the extreme spikes. So far it's been mostly stable.

How do you get that equivalent number?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 27, 2014, 07:27:45 am
BTC/USD   521
BTSX/BTC   0.000062
BTSX/USD   0.032302
BitUSD/BTSX   30.95783543
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 27, 2014, 07:35:51 am
BTSX/BTSX is selling at 0.000065 on BTER, which means

BTC/USD   522
BTSX/BTC   0.000065
BTSX/USD   0.03393
BitUSD/BTSX   29.47244327

The real value for BitUSD should be 29.47. However it is currently sold at 27 BTSX. That's about 10% spread. Not terrible, but should improve once people start doing arbitration.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: profitofthegods on August 27, 2014, 04:16:26 pm
There is no incentive to buy BitUSD. If you think the price of BTSX is going to go down you are better off selling into BTC or real USD.

Here is what I think will happen:

People are using shorts to bet big that BTSX will go up in price. They are idiots, because by doing so they are breaking the market peg (or at least making it very innacurate). As a result of this the price of BTSX will innevitably go down, because it appears to outside observers that it isn't working very well, and BitAssets are pretty much the whole story in terms of getting new people interested at in Bitshares at the moment. The shorts will eventually get that the price of BTSX is in decline, or the system will force their hand with margin calls. BitUSD will reach parity with USD, and stupid bulls will take this as a reason to bet big again and break it again.

This will keep happening over and over, and the price of BTSX will keep going down, until all the stupid people have lost all their money. That could take a very long time.

Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Ggozzo on August 27, 2014, 04:37:08 pm
I somewhat agree. I bought a bunch of bitUSD and could not get out of it at current outside exchange prices.

If it continues as it is, there is no incentive to use bitUSD, because 1. you can't get a true dollars worth of BTSX for the bitUSD and 2. The number of transfers and fees with converting to fiat.

The only reason I am disappointed is because I bought bitUSD at a slight premium 2 nights ago and tried to sell them for a profit and could not because the market was discounting. I should've had a 30% profit but only realized about 20% of it because of the market skew. Had I sent the BTSX to BTer 2 nights ago and sold at the same time, I would gave realized all 30%.

I do think if there were more hedging and arbitrage opportunities, the stubbornness of these bitUSD shorters will go away. At that point they would be giving away cheap bitUSD that could be leveraged elsewhere on the exchange.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 28, 2014, 12:24:45 pm
Yes, it's early days. Not sure if it tracks USD well at the moment, but looks like liquidity has improved.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: CLains on August 28, 2014, 02:07:20 pm
Super confused:I am more interested in price stability than USD per se. I want "risk-free" funds, and the higher the interest the better. What is the interest rate of bitUSD perfectly tracking the dollar in BitShares X? We don't know!

But if we let the market decide interest rate of bitUSD it will likely change continually.. If it changes continually, what happens to the holders of bitUSD? Could they get the interest rate established by the market? If not, what do we do with the endless variety of bitUSDs that have different interest rates?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bodenliu on August 28, 2014, 02:19:15 pm
There is no incentive to buy BitUSD. If you think the price of BTSX is going to go down you are better off selling into BTC or real USD.

Here is what I think will happen:

People are using shorts to bet big that BTSX will go up in price. They are idiots, because by doing so they are breaking the market peg (or at least making it very innacurate). As a result of this the price of BTSX will innevitably go down, because it appears to outside observers that it isn't working very well, and BitAssets are pretty much the whole story in terms of getting new people interested at in Bitshares at the moment. The shorts will eventually get that the price of BTSX is in decline, or the system will force their hand with margin calls. BitUSD will reach parity with USD, and stupid bulls will take this as a reason to bet big again and break it again.

This will keep happening over and over, and the price of BTSX will keep going down, until all the stupid people have lost all their money. That could take a very long time.

damn right
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 29, 2014, 04:37:20 am
And there it is! :) Boom goes the dynamite. :)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Maximus0352 on August 29, 2014, 05:09:55 am
And there it is! :) Boom goes the dynamite. :)

You sir, are Nostradamus. +5% When do you think the market will pick up after this margin call?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: cygnify on August 29, 2014, 05:15:35 am
We haven't dropped low enough yet, because bitUSD still aint moving down, no danger of margin calls yet.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 01:34:28 am
You sir, are Nostradamus. +5% When do you think the market will pick up after this margin call?

I would not go that far, however it is worth noting that I bought some at the lowest it ever traded on BTER and called it out before hand as well.

I believe the price was 0.00001252, it was however a small amount.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jae208 on August 30, 2014, 04:23:31 am
The price has already been below what you predicted. Last night it was as low as $0.023
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 04:25:21 am
The price has already been below what you predicted. Last night it was as low as $0.023

But it did get to it, did it not?

As a side note... I wasn't paying attention, was there finally a bit of a short squeeze?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: toast on August 30, 2014, 04:38:28 am
The price has already been below what you predicted. Last night it was as low as $0.023

But it did get to it, did it not?

As a side note... I wasn't paying attention, was there finally a bit of a short squeeze?

Can confirm some margins were munched

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jae208 on August 30, 2014, 04:43:18 am
It did get to that price but I didn't see BitUSD near 30 BTSX though.

Mind explaining your thought process and what you predict will happen next?
Also, what is your personal opinion about the markets pegs, will they hold and why?

Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 04:53:34 am
It did get to that price but I didn't see BitUSD near 30 BTSX though.

Mind explaining your thought process and what you predict will happen next?
Also, what is your personal opinion about the markets pegs, will they hold and why?

Once shorts are disabled for price below median from delegate's feed data, it should work beautifully.

Was originally opposed to, but I am now really liking Agent86's proposal, it is elegant and should be easy to implement.

Delegates will need to publish feed data more often. But that's fine, because we will now have one more way to measure a delegate's quality.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Riverhead on August 30, 2014, 07:08:06 am
Alt wrote a python tool set which includes feed automation. I have it running and it poles bter, Yahoo, and btc38 every 30 seconds. If the value has changed by more than 5% it'll update that feed. It's pretty slick. There's no reason why any delegate should be manually maintaining feeds.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: changematey on August 30, 2014, 07:28:38 am
Given the fact that people were shorting BITUSD to their heart content (mostly due to bullish on BTSX) without a corresponding stop loss order, their effective "stops" were near the margin call range. So for a big BTSX holder, wanting to buy cheap, it is much easier to trigger a short squeeze or a "stop hunt" by triggering a big sell on some exchanges (arb working out the rest). Something similar happens even in the forex markets. You target a lower end where the stops are to actually buy on a bounce rather than chase the market towards the top.
That is quite some strategy bitmeat, I guess you were into forex trading before all this? And the market liquidity provides much more opportunity here, than what it did in forex, eh?

That said, I have to disagree with the assertion you made in the op. Forex is a rather liquid market and has been running for years (and many gullible traders being pulled in for the 5% a day return promises). While BTSX has some great achievements like the BITUSD, I think retail or small level businesses picking it up is very far off. It will take some real great marketing campaign to actually achieve it. For now I think we will remain in a bit of a range before the actual breakoff comes around.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 07:40:59 am
Given the fact that people were shorting BITUSD to their heart content (mostly due to bullish on BTSX) without a corresponding stop loss order, their effective "stops" were near the margin call range. So for a big BTSX holder, wanting to buy cheap, it is much easier to trigger a short squeeze or a "stop hunt" by triggering a big sell on some exchanges (arb working out the rest). Something similar happens even in the forex markets. You target a lower end where the stops are to actually buy on a bounce rather than chase the market towards the top.
That is quite some strategy bitmeat, I guess you were into forex trading before all this? And the market liquidity provides much more opportunity here, than what it did in forex, eh?

That said, I have to disagree with the assertion you made in the op. Forex is a rather liquid market and has been running for years (and many gullible traders being pulled in for the 5% a day return promises). While BTSX has some great achievements like the BITUSD, I think retail or small level businesses picking it up is very far off. It will take some real great marketing campaign to actually achieve it. For now I think we will remain in a bit of a range before the actual breakoff comes around.

I didn't say it will go there in a day. I'm pointing out that there is a $2B target market, which is not unreasonable at all.

Yes, I worked with a hedge fund and did automated trading systems for them for about 2.5 years.

EDIT: Given that FOREX brokers are not regulated and hard to trust, BitShares might be a good, more transparent solution.

Also even big and stable brokerages can fail - look up the RefCo fiasco.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: changematey on August 30, 2014, 08:00:52 am

I didn't say it will go there in a day. I'm pointing out that there is a $2B target market, which is not unreasonable at all.

Yes, I worked with a hedge fund and did automated trading systems for them for about 2.5 years.

EDIT: Given that FOREX brokers are not regulated and hard to trust, BitShares might be a good, more transparent solution.

Also even big and stable brokerages can fail - look up the RefCo fiasco.
Well there is always an upside to things, I would also like for it to reach the $1 mark but at given situation there is no reason why it should. Maybe a good marketing strategy will turn it around later, so I am not saying it wont, just that the reasons about "small businesses" coming in wont be happening any time soon. Even if Forex brokers are scam companies, what kind of marketing BTSX has to actually replace them. A better solution is not always the most prominent solution, is it?

Given we are yet to get media exposure/ a bitpay type business platform signing up businesses to use BTSX, we are really far off. Unless of course Brian pull a magical rabbit out of the hat.

As for the HF, are you sure you want to discuss that background on the forum, in crypto people normally tend to hate such profiles :P
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 08:05:21 am

I didn't say it will go there in a day. I'm pointing out that there is a $2B target market, which is not unreasonable at all.

Yes, I worked with a hedge fund and did automated trading systems for them for about 2.5 years.

EDIT: Given that FOREX brokers are not regulated and hard to trust, BitShares might be a good, more transparent solution.

Also even big and stable brokerages can fail - look up the RefCo fiasco.
Well there is always an upside to things, I would also like for it to reach the $1 mark but at given situation there is no reason why it should. Maybe a good marketing strategy will turn it around later, so I am not saying it wont, just that the reasons about "small businesses" coming in wont be happening any time soon. Even if Forex brokers are scam companies, what kind of marketing BTSX has to actually replace them. A better solution is not always the most prominent solution, is it?

Given we are yet to get media exposure/ a bitpay type business platform signing up businesses to use BTSX, we are really far off. Unless of course Brian pull a magical rabbit out of the hat.

As for the HF, are you sure you want to discuss that background on the forum, in crypto people normally tend to hate such profiles :P

I would love to build a high-grade trading interface, such that people familiar with MetaTrader will have no problem understanding.

This is better than marketing, as it would market itself.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: changematey on August 30, 2014, 08:25:00 am

I would love to build a high-grade trading interface, such that people familiar with MetaTrader will have no problem understanding.

This is better than marketing, as it would market itself.
Familiar or loaded like MT ;) ?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: liondani on August 30, 2014, 10:00:14 am

I didn't say it will go there in a day. I'm pointing out that there is a $2B target market, which is not unreasonable at all.

Yes, I worked with a hedge fund and did automated trading systems for them for about 2.5 years.

EDIT: Given that FOREX brokers are not regulated and hard to trust, BitShares might be a good, more transparent solution.

Also even big and stable brokerages can fail - look up the RefCo fiasco.
Well there is always an upside to things, I would also like for it to reach the $1 mark but at given situation there is no reason why it should. Maybe a good marketing strategy will turn it around later, so I am not saying it wont, just that the reasons about "small businesses" coming in wont be happening any time soon. Even if Forex brokers are scam companies, what kind of marketing BTSX has to actually replace them. A better solution is not always the most prominent solution, is it?

Given we are yet to get media exposure/ a bitpay type business platform signing up businesses to use BTSX, we are really far off. Unless of course Brian pull a magical rabbit out of the hat.

As for the HF, are you sure you want to discuss that background on the forum, in crypto people normally tend to hate such profiles :P

I would love to build a high-grade trading interface, such that people familiar with MetaTrader will have no problem understanding.

This is better than marketing, as it would market itself.
+5
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: graffenwalder on August 30, 2014, 10:04:51 am
We're on the move again. BTC38 on 0.2 cny. BTER over 0.00006 BTC
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: mf-tzo on August 30, 2014, 10:13:30 am
We are not on the move yet...I do not have access to my bitusd or my BTSX hopefully saved on the BitsharesX vault. I don't even know what is the status of my short order, my collateral, if bitusd have been transfered to the client from Bter...nothing...All I can do is just watch and see opportunities slip through my hands... :(...
Do we expect any new version coming out within the weekend or not? Should I just go get drunk for the whole weekend and stop thinking about it? :)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jae208 on August 30, 2014, 10:18:30 am
Luckily for me I am keeping a significant number of my BTSX on one of the exchanges. So I can make trades in a speedy manner. :) sellin at the top

Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Riverhead on August 30, 2014, 10:23:41 am
We are not on the move yet...I do not have access to my bitusd or my BTSX hopefully saved on the BitsharesX vault. I don't even know what is the status of my short order, my collateral, if bitusd have been transfered to the client from Bter...nothing...All I can do is just watch and see opportunities slip through my hands... :( ...
Do we expect any new version coming out within the weekend or not? Should I just go get drunk for the whole weekend and stop thinking about it? :)


The market is currently paused so nothing is moving right now :). Go get drunk and by the time your hang over passes on Monday hopefully we'll be in better shape.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: mf-tzo on August 30, 2014, 10:25:43 am
Quote
Luckily for me I am keeping a significant number of my BTSX on one of the exchanges. So I can make trades in a speedy manner. :) sellin at the top

Good for you! And I imagine most people do the same and that's why BTSX price keep falling...So unless we fix the bugs and have a stable client BitsharesX will continue to fall, which is fine for me since I can buy them cheaply but in order to do that I need to have at least a basic access to my wallet. I never keep any funds to any centralized exchange since if I wake up a nice morning and realize that the Chinese Government decided to close Bter or BTC38 I will be very sad...
So just and advice...Be careful with the trust you give to the exchanges because some things might be out of their control..
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: mf-tzo on August 30, 2014, 10:26:38 am
Quote
The market is currently paused so nothing is moving right now :). Go get drunk and by the time your hang over passes on Monday hopefully we'll be in better shape.

 +5% +5% The best advice for the day! I'll get started right away...
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jae208 on August 30, 2014, 10:40:31 am
Quote
Luckily for me I am keeping a significant number of my BTSX on one of the exchanges. So I can make trades in a speedy manner. :) sellin at the top

Good for you! And I imagine most people do the same and that's why BTSX price keep falling...So unless we fix the bugs and have a stable client BitsharesX will continue to fall, which is fine for me since I can buy them cheaply but in order to do that I need to have at least a basic access to my wallet. I never keep any funds to any centralized exchange since if I wake up a nice morning and realize that the Chinese Government decided to close Bter or BTC38 I will be very sad...
So just and advice...Be careful with the trust you give to the exchanges because some things might be out of their control..

Yeah probably, but it's not the speculator's fault that it kept going down. Yes, you're right and I'm aware of that risk but at the current time I think BTSX is not in the Chinese government's radar. I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: 38PTSWarrior on August 30, 2014, 10:42:11 am
*stretch*
Cabernet Sauvignon 2012
Gruyère
..
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Riverhead on August 30, 2014, 10:44:10 am
Quote
The market is currently paused so nothing is moving right now :) . Go get drunk and by the time your hang over passes on Monday hopefully we'll be in better shape.

 +5% +5% The best advice for the day! I'll get started right away...


So what's the story with your wallet? Mine is up and running fine on Windows 7/8 and Linux. Also remember the wallet doesn't need to be in sync to send/receive funds. It can still send messages to the network. Anything you receive won't show up until the blockchain is up to date and scanned but existing funds can be moved.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: liondani on August 30, 2014, 12:40:36 pm
 +5% bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.

I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts  ;)
Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?

Thanks in advance  ;)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: mf-tzo on August 30, 2014, 03:17:23 pm
Quote
So what's the story with your wallet? Mine is up and running fine on Windows 7/8 and Linux. Also remember the wallet doesn't need to be in sync to send/receive funds. It can still send messages to the network. Anything you receive won't show up until the blockchain is up to date and scanned but existing funds can be moved.

Until 2 days ago I was on 0.4.8 and never synchronized. On the contrary it the time to synchronize was increasing until at some point and then was crashing...At least I could see my balances..

Then I am on 0.4.9 a or b I think. This wallet I get an error not connected and all my balances are zero...I have deleted and re installed from scratch but nothing...

By the way I am using a 6 years old laptop...
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: yellowecho on August 30, 2014, 03:38:35 pm
The market is currently paused so nothing is moving right now :). Go get drunk and by the time your hang over passes on Monday hopefully we'll be in better shape.

Followed this advice.  Went to the beach and drank myself retarded on rum.  Hangover and market is up.   +5%
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Shentist on August 30, 2014, 03:55:21 pm
The market is currently paused so nothing is moving right now :). Go get drunk and by the time your hang over passes on Monday hopefully we'll be in better shape.

Followed this advice.  Went to the beach and drank myself retarded on rum.  Hangover and market is up.   +5%

did you buy your drinks with bitUSD? maybe a good reason for rising prices.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: muse-umum on August 30, 2014, 04:39:37 pm
Quote
Luckily for me I am keeping a significant number of my BTSX on one of the exchanges. So I can make trades in a speedy manner. :) sellin at the top

Good for you! And I imagine most people do the same and that's why BTSX price keep falling...So unless we fix the bugs and have a stable client BitsharesX will continue to fall, which is fine for me since I can buy them cheaply but in order to do that I need to have at least a basic access to my wallet. I never keep any funds to any centralized exchange since if I wake up a nice morning and realize that the Chinese Government decided to close Bter or BTC38 I will be very sad...
So just and advice...Be careful with the trust you give to the exchanges because some things might be out of their control..

Yeah probably, but it's not the speculator's fault that it kept going down. Yes, you're right and I'm aware of that risk but at the current time I think BTSX is not in the Chinese government's radar. I could be wrong.

BTC=LTC=BTS=DOGE.....in the current law .....
If the government wants to kill BTC,all crypto would go down as well.
It's the same treatment.

The choice of name does not change what a thing is, and animal control agents are unlikely to shrug and walk away satisfied if one points to a pack of pit bulls frolicking on one's front lawn and declares, "Oh those?  No, they're just canines. These aren't the pit bulls you're looking for."
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 06:51:34 pm
+5% bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.

I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts  ;)
Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?

Thanks in advance  ;)

You never know what's going to happen, but looking at Fib levels I see this from the sell off to the last bottom:

Code: [Select]
Start 0.000126
End 0.000039
Diff -0.000087
38.2% Retr 0.000072
50% Retr  0.000083
61.8% Retr 0.000093
127.2% Ext 0.000151
161.8% Ext 0.000180

So, my expectation, even if we are about to continue downtrend, to resume to 38.2% at least.

In fact all of these are good targets on the way up.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Riverhead on August 30, 2014, 08:39:57 pm
The thing is if everyone is using these tools and starts to buy at the bottom indicated it will self manifest as the bottom.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 30, 2014, 08:44:09 pm
There is a fight at 0.000060... fun to watch. :)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 31, 2014, 01:33:21 am
+5% bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.

I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts  ;)
Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?

Thanks in advance  ;)

You never know what's going to happen, but looking at Fib levels I see this from the sell off to the last bottom:

Start         0.000126
End         0.000039
Diff         -0.000087
38.2% Retr   0.000072 - TARGET REACHED
50% Retr     0.000083
61.8% Retr   0.000093
127.2% Ext   0.000151
161.8% Ext   0.000180


So, my expectation, even if we are about to continue downtrend, to resume to 38.2% at least.

In fact all of these are good targets on the way up.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: cygnify on August 31, 2014, 01:42:54 am
As I'm someone who isn't a massive trader; do you expect resistance or reversals on the way back up at the fib levels? Or impossible to tell?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: amencon on August 31, 2014, 02:09:16 am
Wow I stopped watching for a few weeks, come back and not only are we trading but the BTC value of my BTSX is higher than my original investment to acquire PTS/AGS.  I could sell all now, make BTC profit AND still have stake in future DACs!  Not that I plan to sell anytime soon.

Going higher, especially to $1/BTCX, is gravy at this point from a personal investment standpoint.

I'm more interested in DAC technology in general but was hoping that I would make some money long term investing here.  Looking at considerable unrealized gains already is certainly a welcome surprise.

I hope your predictions prove true bitmeat, but even if they don't I think BTSX has been impressive short term anyway.

I'm surprised the price on PTS continue to drop, it would seem like the first I3 DAC already hitting 3 or 4 on total market cap this early in the game would increase confidence that a stake in future I3 DACs is valuable.

I'm a bit torn between buying more PTS or BTSX currently they both seem likely to be good buys long term.

Hmm, sorry for the mostly off topic ramble.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jae208 on August 31, 2014, 03:55:09 am
+5% bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.

I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts  ;)
Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?

Thanks in advance  ;)

You never know what's going to happen, but looking at Fib levels I see this from the sell off to the last bottom:

Start         0.000126
End         0.000039
Diff         -0.000087
38.2% Retr   0.000072 - TARGET REACHED
50% Retr     0.000083
61.8% Retr   0.000093
127.2% Ext   0.000151
161.8% Ext   0.000180


So, my expectation, even if we are about to continue downtrend, to resume to 38.2% at least.

In fact all of these are good targets on the way up.

What does retr and ext mean?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jsidhu on August 31, 2014, 04:09:10 am
retrace or extension.. retrace is below 100% and extension is above 100%.

I have the 161.8 fib target in my mind.. it matches my fuzzy math target and funny you get that as a fib extension.

Incidentily... based on experience anything that reaches 61.8% retrace means that the current low is in and a new cycle has been created... where any retrace is a buy... If the 61.8% retrace was a bull. Since 31.8% was hit and it went through easily... next up to test is 50%..
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 31, 2014, 05:55:12 am
retrace or extension.. retrace is below 100% and extension is above 100%.

I have the 161.8 fib target in my mind.. it matches my fuzzy math target and funny you get that as a fib extension.

Incidentily... based on experience anything that reaches 61.8% retrace means that the current low is in and a new cycle has been created... where any retrace is a buy... If the 61.8% retrace was a bull. Since 31.8% was hit and it went through easily... next up to test is 50%..

Actually... It wasn't that easy, it spiked through that level and retreated very quickly, which shows that the level was in play. My point is since there was a strong reaction and volume around that level, the run was "somewhat exhausted".

So we may have a bit of a retreat before going to that next level. Just have to watch the price action and the DOM (depth of market).
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: cygnify on August 31, 2014, 05:57:29 am
Seems to be a bit of resistance at the 38.2% fib level. What level will be support if we drop down again? The last bottom?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 31, 2014, 06:03:17 am
Seems to be a bit of resistance at the 38.2% fib level. What level will be support if we drop down again? The last bottom?

Do you not see the DOM chart? DOM is your friend.

https://bter.com/trade/BTSX_btc

Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: cygnify on August 31, 2014, 06:09:36 am
Yea I've been following it. Bter just seems to follow whatever btc38 does however, so that DOM indicator isn't all that important I feel; Unless I'm missing something?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 31, 2014, 07:38:14 am
Yea I've been following it. Bter just seems to follow whatever btc38 does however, so that DOM indicator isn't all that important I feel; Unless I'm missing something?

That DOM represents the exact liquidity that is on BTER itself. You can see the buy/sell walls. You kidding me? You don't get such transparency in any of the regular exchanges, even in FOREX.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 31, 2014, 04:28:10 pm
You're assuming all the number and charts are real.
But think about MTGOX. They have charts too ,after they lost tons of BTC and USD,still trading like normal until ...Boom...

They ARE real. Yes, there are risks with centralized exchanges. But once BTSX starts trading again you have DOM there as well.

Feel free to start a separate thread discussing risks of BTER.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 31, 2014, 06:33:41 pm
You're assuming all the number and charts are real.
But think about MTGOX. They have charts too ,after they lost tons of BTC and USD,still trading like normal until ...Boom...

They ARE real. Yes, there are risks with centralized exchanges. But once BTSX starts trading again you have DOM there as well.

Feel free to start a separate thread discussing risks of BTER.

 :P can we go to 1 USD this year ?

No. In fact, going to $1 is a target only if the following assumptions hold true:

- There is no competetive product that takes over market share.
- There is no regulatory pressure blocking regular businesses from using the technology.
- There is good growth in developers in the ecosystem.
- There is a solid adoption
- There is scripting allowing for creation of complex derivative assets. In fact I think BitUSD should have been implemented this way.
- There is a solid build within few months that NEVER crashes.
- There is a scalable blockchain that can handle NASDAQ like order flow.

So yeah, you will not find a 100% secure investment that gives you 10,000% return in less than a year. Come on, be real.

I have doubts I3 can solve all of these problems on their own, however as the ecosystem grows, the demand may bring talent to help solve them.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: xeroc on August 31, 2014, 07:22:42 pm
just to be clear  .. I3 will not solve any (except scalability and stability) of these problems .. they build the technologie and the toolkit ..

DACSunlimited will have to sol e the above issues ..
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on August 31, 2014, 07:46:19 pm
just to be clear  .. I3 will not solve any (except scalability and stability) of these problems .. they build the technologie and the toolkit ..

DACSunlimited will have to sol e the above issues ..

And you think of the things I listed only scalability and stability is technology? What about the scripting of derivative assets?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on September 01, 2014, 06:41:44 pm
(http://i.imgur.com/M2umAf4.png)

I might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: kisa on September 02, 2014, 12:14:15 pm
guys any thoughts why BTSX had stable $1.5m+ daily volume over the last week, falling now so rapidly to below 0.5m?
- was there any attempt to keep the volume artificially high last week? or is it rather temporary drop now?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on September 02, 2014, 12:15:55 pm
guys any thoughts why BTSX had stable $1.5m+ daily volume over the last week, falling now so rapidly to below 0.5m?
- was there any attempt to keep the volume artificially high last week? or is it rather temporary drop now?

We don't want just a weather forecast! We want to know HOW it works and WHY it rained yesterday but not today! :)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: kisa on September 02, 2014, 12:19:10 pm
guys any thoughts why BTSX had stable $1.5m+ daily volume over the last week, falling now so rapidly to below 0.5m?
- was there any attempt to keep the volume artificially high last week? or is it rather temporary drop now?

We don't want just a weather forecast! We want to know HOW it works and WHY it rained yesterday but not today! :)

ok then let me correct myself in asking - any clues on specific causes for the volume dropping so rapidly today?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on September 02, 2014, 12:23:41 pm
Well, crazy hype is over, is that not normal in your mind?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: xeroc on September 02, 2014, 12:26:55 pm
(http://i.imgur.com/41QuyDO.png)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: kisa on September 02, 2014, 12:29:44 pm
Well, crazy hype is over, is that not normal in your mind?

normal yes, but i thought crazy buying hype was some 10 days ago, and crazy profit taking was some 5 days ago... so i expected the daily volume to stabilize around 200K since the price was hovering at current levels for a few days now.... But the volume kept high, so I was wondering about the timing for this reduction. whatever. one can probably artificially increase the volume shown just by churning BTSX holdings on some exchanges via a bot, no?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: xeroc on September 02, 2014, 12:35:21 pm
normal yes, but i thought crazy buying hype was some 10 days ago, and crazy profit taking was some 5 days ago... so i expected the daily volume to stabilize around 200K since the price was hovering at current levels for a few days now.... But the volume kept high, so I was wondering about the timing for this reduction. whatever. one can probably artificially increase the volume shown just by churning BTSX holdings on some exchanges via a bot, no?
Trading usually costs fee .. unless you have too much money trade back and forth like crazy doesn't make too much sense
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on September 02, 2014, 12:36:22 pm
normal yes, but i thought crazy buying hype was some 10 days ago, and crazy profit taking was some 5 days ago... so i expected the daily volume to stabilize around 200K since the price was hovering at current levels for a few days now.... But the volume kept high, so I was wondering about the timing for this reduction. whatever. one can probably artificially increase the volume shown just by churning BTSX holdings on some exchanges via a bot, no?

It was also extended weekend - holiday in the US.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Riverhead on September 02, 2014, 12:38:55 pm
Ya, you can sell coins to yourself but you'd get killed by transaction fees doing it for very long.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: kisa on September 02, 2014, 12:39:17 pm
normal yes, but i thought crazy buying hype was some 10 days ago, and crazy profit taking was some 5 days ago... so i expected the daily volume to stabilize around 200K since the price was hovering at current levels for a few days now.... But the volume kept high, so I was wondering about the timing for this reduction. whatever. one can probably artificially increase the volume shown just by churning BTSX holdings on some exchanges via a bot, no?

It was also extended weekend - holiday in the US.

 +5%

Ya, you can sell coins to yourself but you'd get killed by transaction fees doing it for very long.

Trading usually costs fee .. unless you have too much money trade back and forth like crazy doesn't make too much sense

agreed
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: mf-tzo on September 02, 2014, 12:52:57 pm
I feel that we will stabilize here for a while...I don't expect further downtrend and the next wave will surpass litecoin..
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: changematey on September 03, 2014, 07:07:57 pm

I might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.
Awesome charts. Which site?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Method-X on September 03, 2014, 07:49:03 pm

I might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.
Awesome charts. Which site?

http://www.sosobtc.com/kline/btsx/btc38.html

Anyone know if this code is open source? I'll host an english version if it is.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: pioneer on September 03, 2014, 11:57:22 pm

I might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.
Awesome charts. Which site?

http://www.sosobtc.com/kline/btsx/btc38.html

Anyone know if this code is open source? I'll host an english version if it is.

I prefer cryptrader any day: https://cryptrader.com/charts/bter/btsx/btc
They use Tradingview's API, and thus have many different indicators for technical analysis.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jsidhu on September 04, 2014, 04:06:17 am

I might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.
Awesome charts. Which site?

http://www.sosobtc.com/kline/btsx/btc38.html

Anyone know if this code is open source? I'll host an english version if it is.

I prefer cryptrader any day: https://cryptrader.com/charts/bter/btsx/btc
They use Tradingview's API, and thus have many different indicators for technical analysis.

soso is only better because of the volume... someone should port soso over to english.. i do the javascript trick to get prices in bitcoin but would be better if it were english.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: cygnify on September 04, 2014, 04:10:00 am

I might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.
Awesome charts. Which site?

http://www.sosobtc.com/kline/btsx/btc38.html

Anyone know if this code is open source? I'll host an english version if it is.

Please do, with prices in btc by default! :)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Method-X on September 04, 2014, 09:45:14 am

I might re-enter at these levels, I expect it to go down.
Awesome charts. Which site?

http://www.sosobtc.com/kline/btsx/btc38.html

Anyone know if this code is open source? I'll host an english version if it is.

I prefer cryptrader any day: https://cryptrader.com/charts/bter/btsx/btc
They use Tradingview's API, and thus have many different indicators for technical analysis.

soso is only better because of the volume... someone should port soso over to english.. i do the javascript trick to get prices in bitcoin but would be better if it were english.

Is the code open source?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Akado on September 08, 2014, 06:19:22 pm
its going up again, hopefully  :)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: bitmeat on September 28, 2014, 03:19:43 am
+5% bitmeat for your analysis/prediction.

I want more often to read your predictions and thoughts  ;)
Could you post in regular basis your thought for the market behavior?

Thanks in advance  ;)

You never know what's going to happen, but looking at Fib levels I see this from the sell off to the last bottom:

Start      0.000126
End      0.000039
Diff      -0.000087
38.2% Retr   0.000072
50% Retr     0.000083

61.8% Retr   0.000093
127.2% Ext   0.000151
161.8% Ext   0.000180

So, my expectation, even if we are about to continue downtrend, to resume to 38.2% at least.

In fact all of these are good targets on the way up.

83 target got reached next is 93, then 151 :)
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jckj on September 29, 2014, 05:24:06 am
Chances for bitshares, btc will go down below $400 ~$100 then up. So bitshareers should cath these chances for changing the world.
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: jae208 on October 24, 2014, 07:51:36 am
will the SuperDAC increase its valuation faster than BTSX?
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: lzr1900 on January 14, 2015, 01:26:00 pm
will the SuperDAC increase its valuation faster than BTSX?
seems no ..
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: santaclause102 on January 14, 2015, 01:50:36 pm
will the SuperDAC increase its valuation faster than BTSX?
if investors would not be rational yes :) long term markets are rational...
Title: Re: Here is why I think BTSX will go down to $0.025 and then up above $1.00
Post by: Akado on January 14, 2015, 06:54:45 pm
I think this is a good opportunity for BitShares to detach itself from Bitcoin price-wise. I just hope this new bottom can finally end the bear market and everyone goes on a buying spree.