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Main => Technical Support => Topic started by: FuLl on September 27, 2014, 09:52:01 pm

Title: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: FuLl on September 27, 2014, 09:52:01 pm
Since this is the first snapshot I'll be a part of, I'm not sure what to expect, so I'd like to learn from those of you who've been through this before.

While I'm not particularly interested in holding Songshares, I do see a potentially profitable situation on the horizon with the Snapshot coming up. What I don't know are the historical details necessary to realistically formulate a profitable strategy.

I see that PTS rallied when the Snapshot was announced, & I have, along with apparently many others, spent some BTC on PTS since the announcement. I don't know however, if I'd be better off holding my PTS through the Snapshot so I would receive some Songshares, or if I would make more by selling my PTS just before the Snapshot, assuming its price will be at its highest say, on the 9th of October.

A) Where can I look at pricing data of BTSX, PTS, & DAC's being Snapshottted for time periods during previous Snapshots?

B) How exactly are the allotted Songshares redeemed after the Snapshot?

C) Will I have to wait at all between the time of the Snapshot & the time I'm able to have Songshares to sell?

D) When is the price of PTS expected to peak?

E) Is there maybe some counterintuitive dip that happens say, 6 hours before the Snapshot when everyone who's going to buy into it already has?

F) When is the value of the alotted Songshares expected to be high?

G) How much is the value of PTS expected to drop immediately following the Snapshot?

H) Might the value of my new Songshares plus the value of my PTS provide a healthy ROI such that I'll want to sell both sometime after the Snapshot?

I) Do newly Snapshotted/allotted DACs peak right after a Snapshot?

J) How long might I want to hold my Songshares before selling them should I be seeking to recoup what I spent on PTS?

K) Might I be able at some point to sell my Songshares at such a price that I'm able to recoup my PTS investment within a relatively short period of time, while keeping my PTS holdings intact in anticipation of a future Snapshot?

L) What strategies are others employing aside from indefinite buy & hold?

And one last question, I may as well ask because it does cross my mind not knowing...

M) Is the profit potential of this Music DAC Snapshot sure enough that it might be worthwhile for me to allocate my October's rent to it, assuming I'd be able to make enough of a profit that I could sell it, get my money back with enough left over to cover my late fees & then some?


Thanks in advance for your feedback.

-F
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: tonyk on September 27, 2014, 10:43:00 pm
I will not use my rent money for investments... but that is just me.
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: FuLl on September 27, 2014, 11:15:01 pm
I will not use my rent money for investments... but that is just me.

Yeah, I know it's a bad idea. I was hesitant to even ask, but I would if it were a sure bet at a serious profit.
Title: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: carpet ride on September 28, 2014, 12:00:26 am
I will not use my rent money for investments... but that is just me.

Yeah, I know it's a bad idea. I was hesitant to even ask, but I would if it were a sure bet at a serious profit.

PTS may fall after a snap shot(see Stan's blog post: Watch for falling PTS), and your gains on investment may only be realized when BTS music is up and running weeks or months later.. I would not bet the rent money, but if I were you I would maybe pick up a weekend gig to be able to throw down another couple hundos


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: FuLl on September 28, 2014, 12:09:26 am
PTS may fall after a snap shot(see Stan's blog post: Watch for falling PTS), and your gains on investment may only be realized when BTS music is up and running weeks or months later..

Who's Stan, & where's his blog?

I had the same idea that 'music' might take awhile to gain value. So maybe that won't be part of what I do.

Right now the money I have in PTS was what I had in mind to use to incorporate a business I want to start. I might still want to do that, & I'm hoping I can make $100 or so on the PTS spike, if it materializes.

...Always on the lookout for a side job.
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: carpet ride on September 28, 2014, 12:11:10 am

PTS may fall after a snap shot(see Stan's blog post: Watch for falling PTS), and your gains on investment may only be realized when BTS music is up and running weeks or months later..

Who's Stan, & where's his blog?

I had the same idea that 'music' might take awhile to gain value. So maybe that won't be part of what I do.

Right now the money I have in PTS was what I had in mind to use to incorporate a business I want to start. I might still want to do that, & I'm hoping I can make $100 or so on the PTS spike, if it materializes.

...Always on the lookout for a side job.

See the BitShares.org blog. .. Lots of other gems there too


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: FuLl on September 28, 2014, 12:24:46 am
Good post, thanks.

http://bitshares.org/watch-for-falling-pts/

I hadn't gone all the way to page 3 when I first checked it out, actually I forgot about the blog. Glad to have it back on my radar.
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: mf-tzo on September 28, 2014, 12:45:44 am
Before BTSX snapshot back in FEB if I remember correctly PTS were worth $25-$30 dollars and after the snapshot the price decreased very brutally. Many, including me didn't see that coming and kept buying PTS... So based on that yes, PTS price falls after the snapshot.

BUT!!! Since then things have changed remarkably! DNS-Vote snapshot happened and PTS price after the snapshot didn't fell much. Just fell a little bit and recouped very easily back to pre-snapshot levels, even if bitcoin was falling in price.

All in all I don't think that you will ever see PTS to fall below $2 - $3 especially with the anticipation of new snapshots in the near future. But then again I have been burned in the past with the PTS trading so I would definitely not risk my rent on that..
Also another variable to consider is that when DNS will launch and makes a killing and reaches NMCs market cap within 1 month, or BTSX surpasses LTC, everyone will realise what the potential appreciation of all the I3 DACs and expect PTS to increase back to $10- $20 range just for the anticipation of whatever DAC is launched by this awesome team who will revolutionaze the future!

P.S. I had some drinks tonight and I am talking too much...sorry..


Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: bitmeat on September 28, 2014, 02:35:24 am
(http://i.imgur.com/dgO9IP2.jpg)
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: tonyk on September 28, 2014, 02:53:22 am
(http://i.imgur.com/dgO9IP2.jpg)

Yep...positive now...it's contagious...
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: cube on September 29, 2014, 08:55:47 am
Before BTSX snapshot back in FEB if I remember correctly PTS were worth $25-$30 dollars and after the snapshot the price decreased very brutally. Many, including me didn't see that coming and kept buying PTS... So based on that yes, PTS price falls after the snapshot.

BUT!!! Since then things have changed remarkably! DNS-Vote snapshot happened and PTS price after the snapshot didn't fell much. Just fell a little bit and recouped very easily back to pre-snapshot levels, even if bitcoin was falling in price.
...


PTS was around 0.03BTC before the FEB snapshot and plunged to around 0.01BTC after the snapshot.  The drop is significant.  Things changed after the first snapshot. The slight is smaller but much earlier . Take for example, in the latest snapshot in Aug 2014, the price spiked to around 0.009BTC (from around 0.0065BTC) immediately after the announcement which was one to two weeks before the snapshot.  It peaked at 0.009 and started sliding down to 0.007 one week before the snapshot.  It dropped from 0.007 to 0.0055 right after the snapshot.

I am seeing similar trend now.  The price should be reaching its peak soon or is at it now.

Edit: One thing for sure. If I were you, I would not bet my rent on it.  It is not worth the risk.
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: serejandmyself on September 29, 2014, 08:59:54 am
(http://i.imgur.com/dgO9IP2.jpg)

 +5%
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: Thom on September 29, 2014, 03:35:43 pm
Forgive my ignorance. but since I'm very interested in the DNS DAC, so its important I understand this.

What exactly is a snapshot? It obviously implies something in motion and saving the state of whatever is in motion.

In this discussion we're talking about the Music DAC, so how is that in motion? I didn't think that was launched yet. Is the Music DAC "in motion" starting from the transactions in a genesis block ongoing to the present, such transactions representing trades between developers of the Music DAC?

I see the term snapshot used fairly often but I haven't found just what it means in a bitshares / DAC context yet.

Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: robrigo on September 29, 2014, 03:50:55 pm
Forgive my ignorance. but since I'm very interested in the DNS DAC, so its important I understand this.

What exactly is a snapshot? It obviously implies something in motion and saving the state of whatever is in motion.

In this discussion we're talking about the Music DAC, so how is that in motion? I didn't think that was launched yet. Is the Music DAC "in motion" starting from the transactions in a genesis block ongoing to the present, such transactions representing trades between developers of the Music DAC?

I see the term snapshot used fairly often but I haven't found just what it means in a bitshares / DAC context yet.

A snapshot is an instant in time in which the BitShares PTS blockchain state is "saved". Then using the PTS wallet keys, holders of PTS can claim their stake from the initial allocation of the new DAC that corresponds to the snapshot when the Proto DAC blockchain is released into the wild. The process of claiming is built right into the BitShares toolkit, so you can upload the PTS wallet directly from the GUI of the new DAC and receive your stake. Some exchanges handle this process for you, but it is always safer to hold your own PTS in a local wallet.

P.S. I haven't claimed any stake this way yet, so if someone sees a hole in my explanation please correct me!
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: feedthemcake on September 29, 2014, 05:18:11 pm
Is anyone interested in posting about the Music DAC snapshot in the music forum of reddit? Might be a good place to push it?

Also, is there any plans for contacting actual bands? I have a personal relationship with the singer of a band that has sold over 500,000 records but I don't want to say anything until this is really solid. He also seems like the type of person who may be on board with this and has a huge connection to many many many other bands. If you're aged 18-35 in the USA you probably know this band.
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: donkeypong on September 29, 2014, 05:33:15 pm
Is anyone interested in posting about the Music DAC snapshot in the music forum of reddit? Might be a good place to push it?

Also, is there any plans for contacting actual bands? I have a personal relationship with the singer of a band that has sold over 500,000 records but I don't want to say anything until this is really solid. He also seems like the type of person who may be on board with this and has a huge connection to many many many other bands. If you're aged 18-35 in the USA you probably know this band.

I agree. A number of us want to help sell this one, but are waiting for the product to exist first. I think if you want to interest someone in the 'investment' opportunity, then tell them to load up on their PTS now. But if you are talking about attracting artists, we might want to wait until there's a solid site, etc. Unless you know them really well and think they can be patient through testing phases, etc., maybe only if they're technical or interested in Bitcoin. 
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: Thom on September 29, 2014, 08:33:49 pm
I think if you want to interest someone in the 'investment' opportunity, then tell them to load up on their PTS now.

Ut oh, another newbie alert - My understanding is that PTS is POW blockchain and the first public release took place on Feb 28 this year. I see it can be purchased on exchanges, such as bter.com

Questions:

1) As a shareholder of BTSX, can I trade BTSX shares for PTS shares?
2) Can this be accomplished through the BTSX or PTS wallets, neither of them or both of them?
3) Can PTS shares be held in a wallet like Electrum?
4) I could liquidate BTSX into BTC, then buy PTS with BTC. That doesn't sound very wise, or is it?
5) Right now my entire stake is in BTSX. Should I even consider buying PTS before 1/1/2015 or whenever PTS changes to PoS?
6) If I converted my entire BTSX stake into PTS now, would I get it back in BTSX dividends later?
7) Does my strong interest in the DNS DAC specifically relevant to these questions?
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: mf-tzo on September 29, 2014, 08:43:13 pm
Quote
1) As a shareholder of BTSX, can I trade BTSX shares for PTS shares?
2) Can this be accomplished through the BTSX or PTS wallets, neither of them or both of them?
3) Can PTS shares be held in a wallet like Electrum?
4) I could liquidate BTSX into BTC, then buy PTS with BTC. That doesn't sound very wise, or is it?

a:If you want PTS and you only have BTSX that is the way to do it

5) Right now my entire stake is in BTSX. Should I even consider buying PTS before 1/1/2015 or whenever PTS changes to PoS?

a:If you are interested in DAC music when the snapshot date has been announced the 10th Oct, then you should invest in PTS before then

6) If I converted my entire BTSX stake into PTS now, would I get it back in BTSX dividends later?

a: No.Irrelevant
7) Does my strong interest in the DNS DAC specifically relevant to these questions?

a: DNS and Vote snapshots were taken already. So buying PTS now will not grant you shares in DNS DAC but rather in Music DAC (PTS should be held in your wallet at the snapshot time or else the exchange will claim your shares and may or may not allocate them to you)
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: sschechter on September 29, 2014, 09:49:35 pm
How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot:

1.  Go back in time one week.

2. Buy PTS

3. Profit!
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: Thom on September 30, 2014, 12:25:34 am
Quote
1) As a shareholder of BTSX, can I trade BTSX shares for PTS shares?
2) Can this be accomplished through the BTSX or PTS wallets, neither of them or both of them?
3) Can PTS shares be held in a wallet like Electrum?
4) I could liquidate BTSX into BTC, then buy PTS with BTC. That doesn't sound very wise, or is it?

a:If you want PTS and you only have BTSX that is the way to do it

I don't know what you mean. Are you answering #4 saying that's the right way or the only way to do it, and direct trade isn't possible?

I thought BitsharesX also had exchange features built in, so why would I need to involve bter.com or BTC to obtain PTS?

Also, I do not understand what PTS "coins" or shares in PTS have to do with DACs, unless it's just baked into the code of the DACs to allocate some portion of the DAC shares to owners of PTS when the DAC goes public. Is that it? If so I guess the existing DACs would then need to be forked to pay the dividends to the new PTS-DAC when it is created after this year?

As much as I've read and studied there seem to be some fundamentals of the I3 ecosystem I don't quite grasp, like the current and planned relationships between DACs, PTS & BTSX.

What I'm thinking is PTS/Protoshares was the initial PoW "coin" setup to fund and experiment with PoS & DACs.

Also, since the DNS DAC is already snapshoted, why isn't there more activity here on the forum related to the DNS DAC?
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: cube on September 30, 2014, 04:07:44 am
...
Also, since the DNS DAC is already snapshoted, why isn't there more activity here on the forum related to the DNS DAC?

Because the developer is still developing and testing the DNS DAC application.  Got to wait for it to be ready.

As for the MUSIC Dac, the latest news is that there will be a pre-sales event (ie funding event) AFTER the snapshot. This means the shares derived from this snapshot would be worth less somewhat.   I do not expect PTS price to hold.
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: donkeypong on September 30, 2014, 04:28:40 am
...
Also, since the DNS DAC is already snapshoted, why isn't there more activity here on the forum related to the DNS DAC?

Because the developer is still developing and testing the DNS DAC application.  Got to wait for it to be ready.

As for the MUSIC Dac, the latest news is that there will be a pre-sales event (ie funding event) AFTER the snapshot. This means the shares derived from this snapshot would be worth less somewhat.   I do not expect PTS price to hold.

Worth less? What are you smoking, my friend? BitShares Music has significantly INCREASED the proposed allocation for both PTS and AGS. With AGS' expiration, PTS is the only way in there aside from the limited pre-sale that probably will occur. Do you understand the massive potential of this DAC? PTS should be worth about $30 right now. I just bought some more yesterday and that won't be my last. If it turns out there is a pre-sale, that should create more of a buzz, so some small dilution is a minimal price to pay. For anyone who has followed these proposed allocations, one PTS has FAR more value than it did 48 hours ago.
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: starspirit on September 30, 2014, 09:42:37 am
On the OP's original question:

First, the price fall of PTS after the snapshot is not necessarily a loss of value. It happens because there has effectively been a capital distribution of shares in the new DAC. So the fall represents the market's evaluation of those shares, plus there is general market movement around that depending on the shift in supply and demand for PTS at that point. If you believe the value of the NOTES to be distributed on the snapshot date is not fully factored in the current PTS price, you should hold PTS unless it becomes overpriced beforehand.

Second, there is really no point asking for a consensus on what the most profitable strategy is. Any consensus will ultimately be defied by the market because the weight of capital acting in unison will create a different and unexpected outcome (think how impossible it is to get set when everybody acts in unison). That is why the market peak and behaviour has shifted with each new DAC, as everyone keeps adjusting behaviour based on the last experience, ignoring the obvious game that everyone is doing likewise. It is more profitable to fade the herd, or if that cannot be gauged easily, invest with a longer term view on whether you think the investment is worthwhile or not.

Nevertheless all of us have fun asking ourselves the exact same question, but always know what you don't know! Best of luck.
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: chryspano on September 30, 2014, 10:11:07 am
Quote
1) As a shareholder of BTSX, can I trade BTSX shares for PTS shares?
2) Can this be accomplished through the BTSX or PTS wallets, neither of them or both of them?
3) Can PTS shares be held in a wallet like Electrum?
4) I could liquidate BTSX into BTC, then buy PTS with BTC. That doesn't sound very wise, or is it?

a:If you want PTS and you only have BTSX that is the way to do it

I don't know what you mean. Are you answering #4 saying that's the right way or the only way to do it, and direct trade isn't possible?
Thats the only way to do it if you want some PTS

I thought BitsharesX also had exchange features built in, so why would I need to involve bter.com or BTC to obtain PTS?
The exchange is for bitAssets that track the value of "real" assets (e.g bitUSD is tracking the value of USD). There is a bitPTS bitAsset that can track the value of PTS(not trading yet) but so far you need the real PTS in order to get your DAC share from snapshots   

Also, I do not understand what PTS "coins" or shares in PTS have to do with DACs, unless it's just baked into the code of the DACs to allocate some portion of the DAC shares to owners of PTS when the DAC goes public. Is that it? If so I guess the existing DACs would then need to be forked to pay the dividends to the new PTS-DAC when it is created after this year?
AFAIK there is nothing like shares in PTS, only PTS "coins" (Bitshares PTS). Bitshares PTS for the time being is a POW coin, every new DAC announces a snapshot date, If you hold Bitshares PTS in your wallet (or in some exchanges that will honor the snapshot) you earn "shares" or whatever it is called in this new DAC. I can' t understand what you are trying to say in your last sentence but DACs that already exist like BitsharesX have nothing to do with Bitshares PTS in the future. 

As much as I've read and studied there seem to be some fundamentals of the I3 ecosystem I don't quite grasp, like the current and planned relationships between DACs, PTS & BTSX.
BTSX (BitsharesX) is a DAC
Every new DAC anounces a snapshot date and gives "Shares" to PTS(Bitshares PTS) and AGS(Bitshares AGS) holders.

If in the future we will have some new DACs that rely on existing DACs, chances are that this new DAC will honor the holders of the DAC that it relies on and NOT PTS and AGS holders, e.g a new DAC that relies on BitsharesX(BTSX) will honor BitsharesX holders only.

What I'm thinking is PTS/Protoshares was the initial PoW "coin" setup to fund and experiment with PoS & DACs.
PTS/Protoshares(Bitshares PTS) is the initial PoW coin that gives "shares" to you every time a new DAC snapshot date is announced if you hold PTS in your wallet at the snapshot date.

Also, since the DNS DAC is already snapshoted, why isn't there more activity here on the forum related to the DNS DAC?
I think it's too early, snapshot date of  BTSX DAC was back in February and the first BTSX wallet released 1-2 months ago I think.

If anything I said is incorrect/wrong, someone please correct me.


Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: cube on September 30, 2014, 10:14:00 am
...
Any consensus will ultimately be defied by the market because the weight of capital acting in unison will create a different and unexpected outcome (think how impossible it is to get set when everybody acts in unison). That is why the market peak and behaviour has shifted with each new DAC, as everyone keeps adjusting behaviour based on the last experience, ignoring the obvious game that everyone is doing likewise. It is more profitable to fade the herd, or if that cannot be gauged easily, invest with a longer term view on whether you think the investment is worthwhile or not.
...

I think that says it.  +5%
Title: Re: How to profit from Music DAC Snapshot
Post by: BitTitan on October 09, 2014, 02:01:22 am
Dang..didn't realize how elegant this ecosystem is.  So you have so many places for price discovery...

I haven't seen anything like this.  Heard about bit shares a long time ago and have some pts.  I guess we'll see what goodies I'll get for holding them for the next five years.