Has anyone ever considered that "traditional" analysis does not work with BitShares for the simple reason that there was a SHAREDROP not only on investors and traders, but also on "uninformed" people that just had some bucks left and want to exit?
BitShares is one of the easier crypto to trade based on traditional investing analysis.
The 90% loss of value & slow decline of BTS once dilution became a reality was very predictable. (BTSX would have been circa $300-400 million today without it imo.)
We know that a lot of bitcoiners and altcoiners think btsx is a "crapcoin" and a ponzi scheme. So why do we really care what they say about us diluting btsx?
Kind of reminds me of the famous five monkeys experiment.
Nobody in those communities is willing to go for the bananas any more
but no one remembers why.
Kind of reminds me of the famous goose that laid the golden eggs.
(The date I said we were killing the golden goose was the date of BTSX's BTC high 0.00009234)
The developers then hinted and announced that they'd been writing code and working on BTS 2.0 which includes a lot of great additions.
The market responded correctly and BTS increased in value by 150% from the lows. ($8 million to over $20 million)
Since then the market has had to price in that it could actually still be a while till 2.0 release and that with so many additions there may be quite a few kinks to work out before it's a stable customer friendly version. The market has to price in CNX. The market has to price in Ethereum may start trading soon. While other BTS announcements have been well received by the community, they don't result in any short term increase in the number of BTS users or BitAssets. All the while BTS is releasing millions of BTS per week via the merger and as it is very thinly traded at the moment it's hard to support the price especially with Greece news which drew a lot of speculators into non CNY based crypto-currencies.
Personally I think it's unlikely BTS will go under $10 million prior to the BTS 2.0 release but will spike leading up to and in the first weeks of actual release, where it goes from there depends on how good everything is. But basically limited downside and good upside so a good time to buy BTS now. (Unless Greece/China really implodes in the next few weeks and then you might want to be more in the crypto-currencies that make big moves in response.)
It's also not like competitors are grossly over-valued by comparison. NuShares has just released their Nudroid Mobile wallet and are advertising heavily on CMC and also supposedly have more dollar stable product in circulation in the form of NuBits and are valued at 14% of BTS which seems fair. (I've never owned or looked into NuShares very much personally other than to see that NuBits are obviously very ponzi-ish.)
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