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General Discussion / Re: short / medium term price speculation for BTSX
« on: October 19, 2014, 05:58:08 pm »
BTS is coming... I'm buying with both hands.
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In my uneducated opinion, avoiding the the SEC is like avoiding bears. You don't need to be faster than the bear, you just need to be faster than your friends! The I3 team has taken a lot of legal precautions already. If the SEC is to enter the cryptosphere, they're going to go after the easiest targets. They don't have the manpower to go after anything they feel like. And, if history is any indication, they suck at their jobs anyway.
SEC, IRS, FINCEN are the three bears you have to watch.
If the SEC says AGS is a security then we could be fined like SDICE $50K ... if they declare PTS a security then $100K fine... if they go "all out" and and hit the statutory limit on fines it could be $750,000 per violation. If they really go all out they could nit pick many micro violations and charge arbitrary fines.... however, the fig leaf of legitimacy the SEC hides behind is protecting investors and the public and thus almost all fines they collect are done so with the intention of recovering losses incurred to investors. Fines that large against a company would bankrupt it. Against an individual would require trial by jury because they would be punitive in nature and imply criminal rather than civil violations.
If the IRS says AGS are donations then we could be taxed on anything we don't spend this year... likely worse than a $100K fine from the SEC. We have professional accountants carefully reviewing everything on a tax perspective and are going to pay taxes on the unspent donations if necessary in compliance with IRS codes. Enforcement actions from the IRS in the form of an audit (if any) are likely 2 years out and if our accountants do their job right the audit will pass just fine.
We are probably safest FINCEN compared to everyone else because we do not hold funds on behalf of any 3rd party.
We have taken actions to minimize the likelihood of being a security (explicitly stating no strings attached, no legal obligation, etc) while also minimizing our tax liability. We have spent more than we are likely to be fined attempting to minimize tax liabilities and SEC violations. If AGS is declared a security despite our objections and donations are classified as capital received for security sold... then it is not taxable... the money the SEC fines us with can be covered by the IRS refunding a revised tax filing.
Worst possible case the SEC and IRS don't care that their claims are in contradiction and fine us both ways. I wouldn't put it past them.
In any event how much of a risk are these agencies... I think it is fair to say we are clearly not at risk of being accused of committing either security or tax fraud due to the very conservative accountants and lawyers we have working with us. Leaving any and all violations unintentional disagreements over interpretation of US code and regulations as civil fines that can be solved with money rather than jail.
Regardless of what happens to me... even if they decide I did something criminal and throw me in jail... BTSX and our other projects will go on.
Buying into "snapshots" is very tricky because the value of PTS includes so many factors that you don't know what price you are getting. If you are really interested in a particular DAC it is almost always better not to buy PTS but to buy that one DAC because you will get a larger stake per value. See the Peertracks Pre Sale... cheaper to buy in via their AGS system than via PTS.
To correctly make this comparison you have to use the anticipated price drop of PTS as the purchase price you are comparing. There is residual value in PTS after traditional snapshots that doesn't count against what you paid to get those NOTES or whatever.
You are right... in other words you cannot compute the relative cost of PTS vs the presale price... thus it is almost always better to go with the presale if you have a price you are willing to pay... especially because the presale will actually help the DAC you want to succeed (making it more likely to succeed) where as buying PTS does not help the DAC to succeed.
I mean sell remaining btc. Keeping pts and btsx
About 2000 btc left
Can you say when you will do this? 2000 btc would eat the sell wall like the cookie monster.
Now wouldn't be a good time to do it. BTC is too cheap.
Thanks.
Are there any links to these "teasings" ?
I imagine they will have HUGE troubles with regulation if that goes big. Do you guys know why Ethereum incorporated in Switzerland? (I heard because they got gov't clearance... a kind of a break... to do their business, raise money, etc. Any such things for I3?
I started this thread because I think Open Bazaar is not viable in its current form. I think I have a more profitable, self-funding, design for achieving the same thing they are.... only better.
1) Users shouldn't have to keep their computers on to "serve" their ads. That is a non-starter for the masses.
2) Users want auctions as well as fixed price sales / ads.
3) Users want a solid filtering system for items.
So you implement a DAC that allows users to post ads, start auctions, and implement "buy it now" functionality. The DAC would execute the auction and natively support a local BitUSD / other currencies.
Merchants looking to sell to this audience now have a central place to list their products and get paid in BitUSD....
Implemented properly this DAC would grow far faster than Open Bazaar.. especially with the marketing it could fund to bootstrap.
Not that I want to "compete with everyone out there"... but you have to do it right and Open Bazaar is missing some critical design points.
Last I heard we were short of developers, and OpenBazaar was working hard on their project with no idea how to make it profitable.
Rather than launching a competing project we don't have the time to support, I suggest showing them how to make their project profitable, why they should support bitUSD, and why they should honour PTS and AGS if they use the toolkit to support the profitability model.
This - why not offer to help them build a DAC if they agree to honour the social contract for AGS/PTS holders?
Utilize the OB dev team that is in place, supply high-level oversight from the I3 team.
Minimal resource input for I3 but maximum returns for the development kitty.
Win win for the whole world.
Working on something bigger.... and better for everyone.
I started this thread because I think Open Bazaar is not viable in its current form. I think I have a more profitable, self-funding, design for achieving the same thing they are.... only better.
1) Users shouldn't have to keep their computers on to "serve" their ads. That is a non-starter for the masses.
2) Users want auctions as well as fixed price sales / ads.
3) Users want a solid filtering system for items.
So you implement a DAC that allows users to post ads, start auctions, and implement "buy it now" functionality. The DAC would execute the auction and natively support a local BitUSD / other currencies.
Merchants looking to sell to this audience now have a central place to list their products and get paid in BitUSD....
Implemented properly this DAC would grow far faster than Open Bazaar.. especially with the marketing it could fund to bootstrap.
Not that I want to "compete with everyone out there"... but you have to do it right and Open Bazaar is missing some critical design points.
Last I heard we were short of developers, and OpenBazaar was working hard on their project with no idea how to make it profitable.
Rather than launching a competing project we don't have the time to support, I suggest showing them how to make their project profitable, why they should support bitUSD, and why they should honour PTS and AGS if they use the toolkit to support the profitability model.
Bitcoin went from 2.60 to 1165 in 2 years (44,707% gain). This was when hardly anyone had even heard of crypto currencies too. And still 2bln is not that hard to achieve even if there is just a slight change in the majority's public perception of crypto currencies. Time will tell, but things move fast when momentum takes hold.
It's crazy how so many people here have no patience at all. If you believe in the superiority of bitshares technology, why the hell are you losing your mind over nubits or overstock ? They won't reach billions overnight.
The marketing plan sketched in the dev hangout seems brilliant. We've been told countless times that we need to wait for 1.0 + direct buy from USD.
No one knows if critical mass will go to the best technology, or simply the first okay technology that doesn't fuck up. Network effect, baby. One of the sad things we will see is probably that nubits will be implemented and gain widespread use on OB before bitUSD. OB airdrop and marketing is something that has to be done within a certain time to ensure bitUSD becomes widely used there, IMO, since decentralized trustless trade is really where a decentralized peg is the most useful, and OB looks as if it will be "it" regarding decentralized trade.
Those of you who ignore MethodX are in for a rude awakening, because he is the sanest guy in this thread. If the initial marketing effort will be an all-in attempt at capturing the "neo&bee market" instantly, then we're in trouble, because that will not work. Old people are not going to buy bitUSD, Argentinians are not going to buy bitUSD. Like I've seen MethodX talking about before, the obvious starting point for us should be open bazaar. A referral program for them would be the perfect way to kickstart bitUSD usage, and should commence the second we have a presentable wallet.
Once bitUSD gains anything close to bitcoins current traction, we've won, because at that point the mass market can begin pouring in. But it's not gonna come in as early adopters.
That being said, credit card on-ramp + prepaid debit card off ramp will be extremely strong and make any sort of marketing immensely easy, so I think it's the right thing to focus on. Honestly, the kind of marketing effort we need right now is the effort of the community, no amount of "talented marketing people" can give us the early userbase we need.
Btw is there a list of the marketing team somewhere?
Finally I wish there was more coherence between the Chinese and English communities. We should be working as one, but are currently in a pretty awkward one-country-two-systems situation. I guess as a mandarin speaker I should be working on this.
As for community marketing, there's a few ideas being exchanged on reddit posts, task forces and other similar actions. I expect to see the community flesh that out fairly quickly. I've said this before, but I'll repeat it again:
- Open Bazaar
- Payment Processors like GoCoin
- Larger Exchanges
Those would add a lot of traction within the low hanging fruit realm. Credit Card and Prepaid card will be another useful segment, I don't see why both can't be worked on at the same time by different segments of the community.