I don't currently see any indication that there is any demand for prediction markets from within the community.  Until we have a UI that is 100% prediction market based with one step bet against and pretty explanations, that we can market to outside communities I don't think there is any point in creating prediction markets. 

Thanks again for your great documentation Xeroc. 

Quote from: puppies on January 13, 2016, 12:26:11 am

You might have done something wrong in setting this up.  Xerocs docs say this should work in the gui.  If I get a chance I'll try to set up a test prediction market to see.  Anything happening within the next week that we want to predict?  How about price of bitcoin .  Over under of $450 in one weeks time. 

I actually haven't tried .. but thought it should work .. what exactly is the issue? won't take the collateral ratio of 1:1?

It throws an error because there are no feeds.  I think its just an extra check that the GUI does.

Quote from: puppies on January 13, 2016, 03:46:31 am

I think we're missing two pieces before this can take off. 

First of all we need it to work in the gui.  If people can only take one side of the bet without using the cli wallet then adoption won't happen. 

Secondly we need a better decentralized system of determining winnerss.

Stealth would also be a good thing.

I think (but haven't tested yet) .. that the final decision can be *delegated* to a SET of feed producers that publish the outcome ..
But I need to test this first ..

I am sure that a multi sig account could publish the outcome.  Who should do this though.  I don't think it should be the committee.  I am willing to play risk a test, but I wouldn't be willing to run prediction markets as a business. 

Is there anyone out there that lives in a better jurisdiction to manage prediction markets?

If we can get the GUI solved I think we could start marketing our markets.  If we could find a good way of deciding the result we could be unstoppable.

Yeah.  The issues with this are multiple.  If I were to set up a UIA that represents a share in the tickets that I purchase then it would be the same as all other UIA's.  A un collateralized IOU.  This would probably not be much of an issue as long as winnings were low or non existent. 

If you were to win the jackpot though.  The level of scrutiny you would get would be ridiculous.  If you break a minor gambling law, and you are poor no one is really gonna come after you.  If you break a minor gambling law and you are a have $900M then every agency in the country is gonna want a piece. 

You might have done something wrong in setting this up.  Xerocs docs say this should work in the gui.  If I get a chance I'll try to set up a test prediction market to see.  Anything happening within the next week that we want to predict?  How about price of bitcoin .  Over under of $450 in one weeks time. 

bitcrab have you tried

update_asset TCNY null {  "id": "1.3.734",  "symbol": "TCNY",  "precision": 4,  "issuer": "1.2.121",  "options": {    "max_supply": "1000000000000000",    "market_fee_percent": 0,    "max_market_fee": "1000000000000000",    "issuer_permissions": 511,    "flags": 128,    "core_exchange_rate": {      "base": {        "amount": 103,        "asset_id": "1.3.734"      },      "quote": {        "amount": 46825,        "asset_id": "1.3.0"      }    },    "whitelist_authorities": [],    "blacklist_authorities": [],    "whitelist_markets": [],    "blacklist_markets": [],    "description": "smartcoin defined by transwiser",    "extensions": []  } true
 
That should set your permissions and your flags back to where they were. 

I don't think this is the end of the world by any means. 

I don't think I'll use yunbi anymore, but I was not a regular customer so they won't be missing much.

Trying to get three entities to control the majority of voting in the name of decentralisation is rather silly.

This is seeming more and more like an attempted coup.  Please inform me if I've misread this.

How did you get so disenfranchised?  what do you hope to accomplish?

I'm glad that clayop is back in the committee.  It's too bad that we lost two witnesses in the process.

Interestingly I had some thoughts about almost exactly the same idea yeaterday. Lets have a talk someday this week

Edit: everything needed for binary prediction markets is already there

In the CLI only?

http://cryptofresh.com/a/REPGENSIXTEEN

GUI will not allow you to short.  Please fix that.  Can short in CLI

Code: [Select]

borrow_asset account-name 1000 REPGENSIXTEEN 1000 true
collateral has to be 1 for 1.  I am willing to update asset owner to account that is controlled by multi-sig trusted parties.

Hmm.  Can't short cause there are no feeds.  BM said there shouldn't be any feeds though.  Is this just a GUI error?  I'll try to short in the CLI when I get a chance.  Unless we can get the GUI working I don't think this will catch on at all though.