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General Discussion / Re: A BitCurrency Bank and a BitTradingAsset derivatives exchange
« on: March 29, 2015, 08:40:14 am »
My head hurts trying to follow this. ![Tongue :P](http://bitsharestalk.org/Smileys/aaron/tongue.gif)
I probably will take time to sit down and think about both the current and proposed mechanisms, but I assume for now there is just not enough market making bots. At this point I don't know exactly how the current system works other than at a high level it's like a Total Return Swap and contract-for-difference (CFD). I haven't traded bitUSD and was going to comment after experimenting a little. Even then all I would probably want to know is:
-What price I would get for bitUSD and what interest rate.
-As a short all I want to know is what is the interest rate cost
-Lastly I just want liquidity and simplicity.
How do both systems compare with Bitfinex? I've used Bitfinex a little bit with a general understanding of how it works and it also works like a Total Return Swap/ CFD, but I don't even know my interest rate when trading. I assume it's the lowest available interest rate and I just really track the daily swap costs to make sure it's not too bad.
I'm not sure how good price feeds are from the current exchanges. Furthermore, price feeds in general are just rough proxies of value for shares that trade at some point in time among a few investors/speculators. All value is subjective and constantly changing. Prices don't give a good gauge of value among the broad spectrum of shareholders, because most shareholders don't actively trade. Less than 0.5% of outstanding shares trade in a day. If a few big whales wanted out, the price would take the price down a lot.. let's say 25%... if a few big whales wanted in.. it would take it up 25%...without liquidity you have a few retail speculators dictating the marketcap of the entire ecosystem. That's also why too many people on the forum focus on marketcap when in a illiquid market pricing doesn't really tell you that much. You probably have a bunch of big whales looking at binary scenarios who don't really trade much. On the demand side, there isn't much going on either. Even if the prices become cheap, doesn't mean big shareholders have to accumulate more. They could be satisfied and saturated with their positions, but value their shares much more than the current price. Let's say for example 99% of all shareholders that did not trade valued their shares at a $100 million market cap and would not sell until then. Even if prices of 1% float trading among a few speculators back and forth with each other went on to reflect a $20 million market cap, doesn't mean the 99% of shareholders will value their shares any less and also doesn't mean they'd want to accumulate more either. Anyways I'm digressing a bit. You probably need a lot more liquidity to get a decent price-feed, but if your system creates more liquidity and action it may be something to consider.
Also usability can be an issue. All this seems really complicated and if there's a way to simplify the process that could definitely help. I really don't want to know all the moving parts. I don't really want to think too much. I'd like to just click a few buttons and be done.
![Tongue :P](http://bitsharestalk.org/Smileys/aaron/tongue.gif)
I probably will take time to sit down and think about both the current and proposed mechanisms, but I assume for now there is just not enough market making bots. At this point I don't know exactly how the current system works other than at a high level it's like a Total Return Swap and contract-for-difference (CFD). I haven't traded bitUSD and was going to comment after experimenting a little. Even then all I would probably want to know is:
-What price I would get for bitUSD and what interest rate.
-As a short all I want to know is what is the interest rate cost
-Lastly I just want liquidity and simplicity.
How do both systems compare with Bitfinex? I've used Bitfinex a little bit with a general understanding of how it works and it also works like a Total Return Swap/ CFD, but I don't even know my interest rate when trading. I assume it's the lowest available interest rate and I just really track the daily swap costs to make sure it's not too bad.
I'm not sure how good price feeds are from the current exchanges. Furthermore, price feeds in general are just rough proxies of value for shares that trade at some point in time among a few investors/speculators. All value is subjective and constantly changing. Prices don't give a good gauge of value among the broad spectrum of shareholders, because most shareholders don't actively trade. Less than 0.5% of outstanding shares trade in a day. If a few big whales wanted out, the price would take the price down a lot.. let's say 25%... if a few big whales wanted in.. it would take it up 25%...without liquidity you have a few retail speculators dictating the marketcap of the entire ecosystem. That's also why too many people on the forum focus on marketcap when in a illiquid market pricing doesn't really tell you that much. You probably have a bunch of big whales looking at binary scenarios who don't really trade much. On the demand side, there isn't much going on either. Even if the prices become cheap, doesn't mean big shareholders have to accumulate more. They could be satisfied and saturated with their positions, but value their shares much more than the current price. Let's say for example 99% of all shareholders that did not trade valued their shares at a $100 million market cap and would not sell until then. Even if prices of 1% float trading among a few speculators back and forth with each other went on to reflect a $20 million market cap, doesn't mean the 99% of shareholders will value their shares any less and also doesn't mean they'd want to accumulate more either. Anyways I'm digressing a bit. You probably need a lot more liquidity to get a decent price-feed, but if your system creates more liquidity and action it may be something to consider.
Also usability can be an issue. All this seems really complicated and if there's a way to simplify the process that could definitely help. I really don't want to know all the moving parts. I don't really want to think too much. I'd like to just click a few buttons and be done.