Darn I meant to quote the part below but ended up modifying the original statement above
My new prediction
Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.
Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.
If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.
(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)
So much for that prediction...
Perhaps too optimistic...
I see now wallet issues (to be expected at this stage and with such rapid development & innovation), complexity, uncertainty and centralisation of active voting stake are the likely drags.
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8416.msg111523#msg111523So even an optimal incentive system will take a while to attract longs.
I also see they are considering a collateral system now which I think is negative as it will decrease BitYield and while I lack much understanding about shorting and trading, I have to believe the basic logic of incentives will be what ultimately maximises demand around the peg.
Potential issues
In the short term I feel many are disengaging from the development process until there is a stable client, with a simple system and greater certainty.
I also think the developer & co voting stake is or could become more of an issue unless there is a roadmap to get more voting stake into play. (BTC38's BTSX could also be an issue.) as it currently makes DPOS largely irrelevant/superfluous. I also think it's possible the developers with their market skill and knowledge of development issues which currently drive BTSX price will allow them to increase their positions, and while incentivising them, will exacerbate that issue further.