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Messages - Empirical1.1

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781
General Discussion / Re: Ripple Deal
« on: September 24, 2014, 03:21:00 pm »
It seems the Fidor-Ripple announcent on May 05 mentioned in article was good for a short term 20%+ gain. This announcement sounds better but I'm too lazy to look into it more/trade.

782
General Discussion / Re: Do we need a BitPay?
« on: September 24, 2014, 12:37:41 pm »
conclusion: THEY don't get it! .. too bad .. maybe our fault .. it seems we need to do ALOT more education of "bitshares"

They probably get it :)

BitPay mainly exists to remove volatility for merchants accepting BitCoin and to speed up transactions for customers.

BitUSD with 10 second confirmations probably makes them obsolete.

783
General Discussion / Re: how do i vote?
« on: September 24, 2014, 12:05:38 pm »
I also wasn't sure if 'vote all' meant voting for all my personal selections  :)

Isn't there a delegate website coming soon?

Just like we have a BitShares.org team page there should be a delegate team page,  where each delegate chooses an icon or a picture of themselves if they are comfortable disclosing that & when you click each delegate it goes to their personal profile page. (Mission statement, what they do to help BitShares etc.)

Personally I think the delegate system would feel a lot more personal, accessible and understandable if you could put a face to say 10 of the delegates. Then you can say 'meet some of the current delegates' when promoting DPOS. 
 

784
General Discussion / Re: CoinMarketCap Adda BitShares assets
« on: September 24, 2014, 08:22:40 am »
 +5% I guess BitAssets are quite different to user issued assets, the best part being BitAssets directly add to BTSX CAP.

Looking forward to BitGold & BitSilver  :)


785
General Discussion / Re: BTSX over taken by Monero in market cap
« on: September 24, 2014, 08:14:22 am »
That's funny  :)  I saw that briefly too.

I find Ripple & Litecoin being briefly ahead of BTSX equally amusing :)

Once the BTSX kinks get sorted out, I'll find Bitcoin being temporarily ahead funny too.

786
+5% great photo! I've used it myself to describe Bitcoin's mining problem :)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=412846.msg4549051#msg4549051


You guys are all acting like Bitcoin is impregnable.
 
If you sort out the pool mining issues, then you guys can act as cocky as you like, but if you don't take the power out of the pools,





                             


I was pulling my hair out back then...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=411099.msg4512768#msg4512768





Why is 'centralization of mining' not the no.1 topic that the community is trying to address everyday?





Luckily it pushed me into understanding alternatives like BitShares  :)


787
General Discussion / Re: Downloading Blockchain with 0.4.16. So slow..
« on: September 22, 2014, 10:50:46 am »
i mean seriously. youre bitching about alpha-release software. this is getting annoying guy

yeah?  think of what all the other ordinary people might think.  this could turn them off.  which my main concern.

I wouldn't worry, I don't think there are many ordinary people interacting with BitAssets atm. Our daily forum visitors have been declining back to pre-Bit Asset launch levels. They came, they saw, they left.  That's not a dig, it's just early stage software plus rapid development that doesn't have time to hold our hands.

I think they want to find the best BitAsset base system and hopefully during that time sort out bugs too then they'll simplify, fine tune and market.

Despite lost launch momentum, I'm hoping  it's on people's radar & that they are waiting for a more stable system & tight peg.  I'm personally itching to get some BitSilver.

Of course time is of the essence. Ethereum may have their own competing product soon enough and personally I have a crazy theory that suggests the world financial markets could be capitulating circa Oct 20th. Whenever it happens the flight to safety capital that BTSX and BitAsset commodities in particular could absorb if they were ready,  is super massive.

 

788
General Discussion / Re: Bitsapphire first team to accept bitUSD as payment
« on: September 20, 2014, 04:42:08 pm »
 +5% Cool  :)

789
General Discussion / Re: How to measure and market success of the peg
« on: September 20, 2014, 04:37:06 pm »
It would be useful to set up a place where everybody can follow a number of metrics regarding the evolving history of the peg, especially for usd. This could also be used for marketing.

Things I think would be useful to track in charts are:

 - history of transactions, represented as discount of premium to feed price
 - volatility of bUSD
 - correlation of bUSD to fiat USD vs other currencies or gold
 - supply of bUSD
 - volume traded in bUSD
 - bid/ask spread
 - volumes transferred in bUSD

thoughts?

 +5% This is a good idea, it will be very useful and definitely from a marketing pov, some easy to evaluate & compare metrics of a BitAsset system that is hopefully functioning well and progressing in the right direction will be a great advertise-able, confidence building, track record that will really help market it.


790
General Discussion / Re: Proposal - Significant Enhancement to Market Engine
« on: September 20, 2014, 04:28:08 pm »
Think of the shorts as usd issuers who cannot run off with your money and are competing to put the most on the line. 

Right now few shorts want to cover because their losses are big and they don't think btsx can go much lower. 

I hope they are right. 

A market maker in my case is someone who doesn't mind a little short exposure because they are btsx bullish.   BitUSD will never surge to more than $1 while there are so many bulls like myself looking for leverage. 

The key is to allow shorts to cover with no fee as soon as possible to provide liquidity for usd holders. 

If people have high confidence that they can sell their usd near a dollar then they will buy.  The problem is that there is not any confidence in that and thus little demand. 

Monday will change all of that.  We will create a trading bot that will buy all the usd it can short at 99.5% of market price.

There will be huge buy and sell walls right near the peg.   

Once those walls are proven then usd holders will consider the yield and utility and demand will come.

Sounds good, this should work and have an incentivising effect for genuine longs too. I'm personally looking forward to a BitGold & BitSilver with more collateral as I was worried about a sudden upside revaluation due to Comex default or something.

However at some point increasing collateral won't create an additional incentive for genuine longs but converting competition from long term shorts who don't mind competing on fees, would. So it seems like there's money and BitAsset demand being left on the table here, though probably best not to over-complicate it.

Either way I won't judge this change by it's immediate effect as I think genuine long demand will build slowly, unless there's a real world financial event, as things like a very stable client, decentralisation of voting stake, as well as just a track record of a functioning BitAsset system may be required to create significant BitAsset demand.

 

791
General Discussion / Re: Proposal - Significant Enhancement to Market Engine
« on: September 19, 2014, 09:31:09 am »
While not understanding this stuff, it seems the last solution price fixed collateral (Sub-optimal)  but this one price fixes fee/interest. (Sub-optimal)

This solution makes it better for market makers but decreases genuine BitAsset demand as it offers interest rates that are 300%+ lower probably??

Isn't the best system one that encourages market makers and genuine BitAsset holders, Optimal interest + optimal collateral?

I don't know how to implement this & haven't shorted before, but thoughts..

1. Simplicity

Regardless of shorting system,  perhaps the main BitUSD market page should maybe just show & allow buying and selling to keep it very simple for users.

Then have a separate tab - 'Short BitUSD (Advanced)'

2. For the long term shorts it should be made simple. They just choose short and compete on fee/interest. (The system automatically places/keeps their order at 1-1 whatever that rate happens to be.)

For the market makers they enter shorts as per this proposal.

50% of new BitUSD is awarded to highest collateral and 50% to highest fee/interest when demand is at or above feed.

Then we have a system with more collateral and attractive interest that encourages market makers and genuine BitAsset demand (who will also appreciate more collateral & tighter range)

792
General Discussion / Re: When will there be interest on BitAssets?
« on: September 18, 2014, 12:35:09 pm »
Darn I meant to quote the part below but ended up modifying the original statement above :(


My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

So much for that prediction...   :(

Perhaps too optimistic...  :P I see now wallet issues (to be expected at this stage and with such rapid development & innovation), complexity, uncertainty and centralisation of active voting stake are the likely drags. https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8416.msg111523#msg111523
So even an optimal incentive system will take a while to attract longs.

I also see they are considering a collateral system now which I think is negative as it will decrease BitYield and while I lack much understanding about shorting and trading, I have to believe the basic logic of incentives will be what ultimately maximises demand around the peg.

Potential issues

In the short term I feel many are disengaging from the development process until there is a stable client, with a simple system and greater certainty.

I also think the developer & co voting stake is or could become more of an issue unless there is a roadmap to get more voting stake into play. (BTC38's BTSX could also be an issue.) as it currently makes DPOS largely irrelevant/superfluous. I also think it's possible the developers with their market skill and knowledge of development issues which currently drive BTSX price will allow them to increase their positions, and while incentivising them, will exacerbate that issue further.

793
General Discussion / Re: Proposal - Significant Enhancement to Market Engine
« on: September 18, 2014, 11:20:47 am »
I will try to understand this proposal more when I have time but personally I really liked BitYield. Converting shorting demand into incentives for longs in some optimal manner seems like the right approach.

Without that you have a market that will be made obsolete quickly by someone that maximises incentives for longs.

794
General Discussion / Re: Fee Flow / Yield Info Graphic
« on: September 12, 2014, 06:06:53 pm »

I think having the arrows point up and down is misleading. It makes is like something is being lost. The arrows should just be left/right which denotes more of an in/out vs up/down process.

Yes, this.

Yeah graphic is quality but message conveyed is unclear maybe no arrows but have description under title...

BTSX

Directly profit from fees less delegate pay, paid via burning.

(Then list fees)

BITUSD

Directly profit from fees, paid as yield.

(Then list fees)



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