Quote from: Neuromancer on October 01, 2015, 06:53:34 pm

For the scenario of a downward swing before the eventual rise, what do you chaps think the likeliest lowest point will be in that swing?

wrong place to ask... you must ask shorters.... what about cagara? 

I'm not a shorter, but long and I'm still trying to construct that possible scenario, just because it can be helpful to consider the possible future price paths, even if considering what you surmise is a lower likelihood path : )
I agree with what many of you are saying, in a down scenario 2500's will see a lot of resistance.

A pleasure to read all of your 2 cents and analyses and nice to see a few of you from Polo.

I agree that as volatility smooths like the surface of a lake bts is preparing for it's next major move. As others have said it may be a major upside swing, or a temporary downward one. My money's on another rise, but I have enough collateral to cover a temporary downward swing. If there is a downward swing, buying will likely be ferocious. As near as I can tell next upward swing should go between 3950 to a bit over 4k. Next base being around 3.5k to 3600.
Even though this looks like it will be resolved in the coming days, I suppose the last possibility is bts starts to favor upside swing with Cagera continuing to sell into it, casuing price to slip sideways in a narrow range longer than expected. Cagera likely won't sell below this price range, unless an attempt is made to try and force a downward slide, which may or may not rebound quickly. If market sentiment is positive and it's mostly one bearwhale trying to put downward pressure on price, then that'd seem to favor a quick bounce. At that point Cagera might cut their losses and close. The longer we go sideways in this narrow range with a single bearwhale trying to suppress price, move will increasingly favor upside swing : )
Best of luck to you all.