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Messages - Pixar

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1
Keyhotte is a desperately needed now.  But as I was thinking it over, couldn't someone if they were sinister enough (or wanted free adveristing) just do a scan of all the ID's  (or public key) created on the blockchain and send them mass emails? 

Do I have this wrong, or are there any safeguards in the works to prevent this?

2
KeyID / Re: TLD discussion
« on: March 22, 2014, 03:07:33 am »
p2p since it would encompass the entire decentralized mindset

3
General Discussion / Re: Our new website is now LIVE!
« on: March 22, 2014, 03:03:22 am »
How much did it post to obtain this domain bitshares.org?  I remember way back bytemaster said the previous owners were requesting the tune of 2,000 pts for this site.  Or was that bitshares.com? 

4
General Discussion / Re: Bitshare roughly estimated at $100
« on: March 20, 2014, 12:58:39 am »


Apparently less than 1.


Transaction Date   Transaction Hash   BTC/USD Rate   Bitshares Amount   Value in USD   BitShares Left
2014-03-09 11    519bbbf6767359b762350079f2a3e5dc3e47297a65c679b175766b379e03ade4    620.31    .6203100000    62.0310000000    1199.3796900000

Nobody is buying this.  Probably a dummy transaction

5
See what your saying, but that is what 5% is for.  5% of 100 BTS is only 5BTS.  While 5% of 100,000 BTS is  5,000

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General Discussion / Re: My visit to I3: Status update and thoughts
« on: March 16, 2014, 04:14:00 am »
Toast, are you going to work full time for invictus on bitshares domain?

7
General Discussion / Re: BitShares X Status Update
« on: March 16, 2014, 01:29:47 am »
Toast, what is Bitshares ME?

8
sorry, I tried signature validation, but it failed, why?

Quote
To validate the signature, open BitShares-PTS wallet, go to the File Menu, then to Verify Message.
Then enter the PaNGELmZgzRQCKeEKM6ifgTqNkC4ceiAWw, the sha256 hash, and the Signature above.

I'm having this issue too.  Can someone explain?  Where do you run the command shasum -a 256 get_bts_bal.tar.gz

9
Why are we introducing feeds to a prediction market?  I thought Invictus purpose was to decentralize their solutions as much as possible.  This seems like a shaky precedence to set. 

No feeds are going to be in the prediction market to my knowledge.  He said (emphasis mine):
Quote
What I would do if I were to build a more general purpose prediction market chain

It was a hypothetical scenario discussing the topic at hand, not an explanation of the innerworkings of BTS.

Yes, Bytemaster did not say he would use a feed for Bitshares (hes only once said it would incorporate it as backup effort if the experiment does not work as expected), but he is casually alluding that he would use it for a Claim Prediction market - with questions like will the "Raiders win the Superbowl in 2015?" 
"Will Democrats take over the House again in 2015"
"Will the DOW hit all time highs in 2014."  etc etc. 

For the winner to claim all the winning pools, and there to be a threat to direct trade movement--- there seems to be a centralized feed component in Bytemasters proposal. 

10
I see another downside to AGS because what if your AGS wallet gets hacked.  They get all shares of your future DACS!  I'm investing in PTS because of this.  For a measure of safety. 

11
Bytemaster replied back to asymmetry information on bitcointalk.  Check it out


"This is a good discussion and I do not want to derail the work presented in the OP as it is good work.   Here are some general concepts to consider:

1) A prediction market does not need to have a 0 to 1 range, though this is one form for a binary event. 
2) All trades are voluntary with the exception of a margin call on the short position when collateral runs low.
3) Once the market reaches a consensus that BitUSD should track USD players on both sides are placing a bet on the future consensus relative to the current consensus.   When the future comes, they will continue to place the same bet.  This process requires a bootstrap phase where an order book can be published without executing trades as well as a min market depth before trading can begin.  This establishes the initial consensus.
4) Given the fact that the BitAssets are created only by pairing short/longs both sides must agree to the price. 

So if there existed a trusted data feed, then it is possible to operate in thiner markets.   I do not believe BitShares functions well in thin markets.

What I would do if I were to build a more general purpose prediction market chain is the following:

1) Select a hand full of trusted data feeds
2) Create a BitAsset on the trustworthiness of the producer of the feeds... keep number of producers small so market depth is meaningful.
3) The BitAsset would be market pegged to below 1 for untrustworthy and above 100 for trustworthy. 
4) All prediction market bets based upon the data feeds would be settled only if the BitAsset of the producer of the feed retained a high degree of trust.

Now someone can simultaneously make a bet and hedge on the trustworthiness of the feed.  This would eliminate voting from the mix."


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=475054.20

Why are we introducing feeds to a prediction market?  I thought Invictus purpose was to decentralize their solutions as much as possible.  This seems like a shaky precedence to set. 

I'm still trying to figure out how Dan's Prediction Market works.  It seems by the quote above it may have trouble if the market volume is thin.  Does that mean we can't have niche Prediction Markets like "Another man will be cured AIDS by 2016 via bone marrow transplant?"  Hence the prediction market will not be diverse with ideas.  Leaves me wanting for more.  I'm going to read assymetrics whitepaper tonight and come back and give my opinions soon. 

12
 If no one will sell then a new short will take over and get a premium for waiting for one of the longs to sell at the fair price.    Eventually all of the longs will choose to sell because they know the whole market will keep the peg near 100 or near 200.   

Can u mathematically express this, using bitshares long shorts and collateral?  I don't understand what u are trying to say

13
Their system depends upon voting with the consensus or it punishes you.  Because it uses voting to reach consensus it is fundamentally flawed in my opinion.

I haven't yet read this whitepaper yet.  I'll take a look at it sometime soon. 
But I think I should offer my two cents...

In contrast, it seems off putting in my opinion that people would trade on bitshares, just in the belief that someone else would will buy it at a higher price.  This sounds like the greater fool theory.  I buy an asset because I believe that other people are buying it too, and that nothing underlying the asset is what is fundamental driving the price.  Why should anyone trade bithillary2016.  Prediction markets because its strictly a betting market.  The winner of the bet is guaranteed to get all of the winning pool.  Its clear to me how prediction markets reflect fundamental event/ idea probabilities. 

How do you suppose Bitshares Prediction Markets will reach consensus?  What would happen the date after Bithillary2016?  Why would anyone buy it at the higher price that I demand?   If I am the last person to buy bithillary2016 at 90cents and we say she is guarenteed to win, who would buy for $1 after the election is over?  They would lose 10cents per share because nobody else wants to buy it.  Bitshares Prediction Market sounds like it can predict to a degree... just dont be the last person holding the bag. 

Given that one is a continuously traded asset ( Bitshares) and the another (Bitshares PM) is traded until the end of a time horizon: I argue that you cannot develop them the same way.  We already have proof in the Hollywood Exchange (which evidently Invictus had previously used as an example for why competitive trading markets work).  Hollywood Exchange doesn't correlate to the stock price to budget earnings-- just by the bid and ask volume alone.  The only reason Hollywood exchange seems to reflect the box office results is because the employees have to manually have to go in and multiply the price by the exzact weekend box office results on TV.  Bytemaster, do you plan on doing that?  Will you use centralized techniques to go in and make sure BitHillary2016 reflects 1 dollar as it should?  Because if you don't (as already seen by HollyEX), it seems the bitshares prediction market experiment will trade on just "random expectations." And therefore fail to develop a strong correlation to the event. 

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