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Messages - tonyk

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3301
bytemaster, It is all well and good, as long as the people willing to take the extra risk of going short for the extra profit (*1), as opposed to simply staying long BTS X, will equal the demand for bitUSD by people preferring bitUSD to USD. It might be the case, but if one envision huge interest in bitUSD this might not be true at all.
In other words relying on enough risk tolerant players to essentially ‘print’ all the bitUSD needed/required by everyone seeing the benefit of using bitUSD (instead of USD) is something I am not totally comfortable with…

*1 It is pretty straightforward but someone buying a BTSX at @ $100/BTSX will profit $100 if the price goes up to $200/BTSX and $200 if buys at the same price and shorts bitUSD (assuming 2x margin and USD~~bitUSD). Going short unfortunately proportionally increase the loses in case of unfavorable price movement.

3302
While I have no official proof that my actions/posts have led to/contributed to the outcome, I am more than happy to see  2 features/changes that I argued for, now being on their way to be seriously considered/or being implemented.  Those 2 being - dropping the idea of 10x margin and - setting a cap on price movement (in the 1% range)…
See here: http://107.170.30.182/banking/ under ‘Market Security’ and ‘Trading Halt Conditions’ respectively.

What I argue for in this post is – before the ‘bitshares toolkit’ is finalized, an addition to the basic functionality to be made -namely to be added a possibility (reserved function with no implementation if you want) for claim by market bid – as well as adding such transactions as one of the deterministic transactions.
What will the ‘market bid’/ ‘market buy order’ do:
-It will allow the party placing such bid to buy a bitAsset at the last established market price, from ‘the market’ i.e. with no physical counter-party for the transaction. It will result in a long position in the bitAsset and destruction of the appropriate amount of BTS X/bips. (I foresee certain conditions to have to be met – like the market price to be established with certain minimum market depth, imposing additional transaction fee, in probably the 1% range, for such transactions)

The benefits of the existence of such transaction can be possibly huge! – I would venture to say it makes possible the bitUSD to become the de facto crypto dollar of the world. AS it stands now bitshare x(t) will be ,if successful, great prediction market. But if bitUSD is to be crypto USD replacement in all possible transaction, the demand for bitUSD will simply could not be met by only the parties speculating that the price of bitUSD will go down (i.e. people taking short positions). And while I am not saying this will make the price move/ be distorted, the demand for bitUSDs for ‘everyday use’ will very likely not be met. In other words there will not be enough bitUSD to facilitate its use as crypto USD (USD crypto replacement)

P.S. If the above stated goal is not in the plans for bitUSD, and you are happy as limiting bitUSD to its prediction role only, while truly unhappy to hear that, please disregard this post of mine.

3303
General Discussion / Re: BitShares X Status Update
« on: March 16, 2014, 04:43:23 pm »
What is actually very concerning is the fact that bytemaster said: 
We will likely introduce BitShares ME…  prior to implementing … BTS XT
 (here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=1890.msg45173#msg45173)

And what toast said:
 “I would guess Lotto and DNS would come before ME.”
 (here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=3615.msg45527#msg45527)


???

3304
Meta / BitShares Me - sub forum
« on: March 16, 2014, 02:42:26 pm »
Please, create a sub forum for ‘BitShares Me’ in all likelihood this will be the first lunched DAC and the information (as little as it is) is scattered all over the place.

3305
General Discussion / Re: Let's think about this
« on: March 13, 2014, 11:27:50 pm »
If the system is a success (between other things meaning that BitUSD is actually correlated to USD), I personally think there will be people making the meat space USD directly tradable/exchangeable for BitUSD.

BUT

The BTS X do not target and or make possible this feature in itself!
i.e. Somebody else will have to make this USD BitUSD possible .And probably more than one person/entity will.

Going long (or longing as you call it) is not that hard of a concept – it simply means buying something. For now you can buy BitUSD only with BTXs.

I hope you still sleep well after learning this details 

3306
Suggestion for the problem with liquidating short positions that potentially lead to BitAssets/BitUSD flying in the system with no backing.

There are (possibly) situation where the liquidated short position’s margin is not enough to buy all the required BitUSD (example are rapid price appreciation of BitUSD due to natural factors and  SIDS Attack)
 
The suggestion assumes that the market do have  ‘caps on price movement/per block’ (I in vision such cap at no more than 1%, probably less)

Generally the idea is – instead of covering the low margin short position by placing a buy order on the market on behalf of such short position holder, covering with existing long position (or portion of such position) @ price=last transaction price on the market (alternatively @ average price in the last block) and automatically placing buy order for the same amount at the same price on behalf of the long position holder.(Note: Such order should be modifiable/cancelable buy the long position holder at his earliest convenience)
I have 2 variants how the long position holder is selected for such transaction –
 (a) the counter party in the initial short sale – this of course if the block chain contains the info (I am not sure if it does)
(b) randomly selected long positions – here effort should be made to find best balance between taking as little as possible from such long position (let say try if possible not to sell more than 5% of each of such selected long) and the stress on the system if too many such long are selected to facilitate minuscule transactions. (Note: such longs should probably receive portion of the 5% liquidation fee, so they do not have to pay the transaction fee on this and the subsequent buy order from their own pockets)

P.S. I see the disadvantages of the above proposal, believe me. I just think it just better than uncovered assets flying around in the system and/or having to have 10x margin requirement.

3307
HI, bytemaster
First, I am happy to see that you are seriously considering going back to 2x margin, no matter if it is because of the attack suggested by my or any of the other attacks.
Second, Thanks You for offering a tip for me suggesting the Unbalanced Forces Attack/BitUSD Monopoly Attack. I would prefer it in BTX (as opposed to PTS) and am ok waiting for the wallet release if you do not mind, as the next DAC is too far in the future for my liking plus all Bank/Exchanges will be based on BTX not PTS, as I understand.
In your post you showed some doubt for how exactly one will profit from BitUSD Monopoly Attack. While my idea was to point how easy it is to distort the market (just for the heck of it, no money gains in mind) and to show that somebody with 10% of BTX (and most likely with far less than that) can choose/control the price of all BitAssets (or at least choose to set their price at arbitrary upward point). In my mind this is dangerous enough. I think that the people will come with more and ‘better’ ways to use it for their advantage but if you insist here are my 3 ways on how one can profit from it:
1. Introducing market/solution that lacks the above deficiencies… (if losing all/most/some money invested in 10% of all BTX is worth it)
2.The inflated BitUSD can be sold/exchanged on an outside market for USD or other ‘meat space’ currency before the price support is withdrawn and the price of BItUSD potentially/likely goes down
3. One can come up with a ‘fund’ that offers an investment in asset/s (BitUSD and other BitAssets) that guaranty (7%, 10%, 14% return/year).
 And what is more troubling, he/she can actually secure such return for year after year, after year; by simply controlling the price (or at least the upward movement of the price) of said asset. And while mass withdrawal of money from such fund may expose the  scheme such fund is, so are pretty much every bank/fund (meaning none of them can sustain mass withdrawal of funds without outside help or going bankrupt)


On totally different note (without too much thought, this is just how I feel in general about it):
1.‘short squeeze’  is nothing to worry about - it is a natural market development and if they/ the shorts feel pressure they better have ‘easy way to add additional margin/cover and sale at the new price ’ if they do not want to be forced to liquidate.
2.Caps on price movement/per block is the way to remove/soften the blow to the system, in my opinion. Also the margin call buy orders (as market orders –i.e. no upper limit on the buy price), should be filled up first before other buy orders.
3. I have a suggestion that I will put in the next post….

3308
The 10x margin is all well and good in preventing attacks discussed but it leads (in my opinion) to exposing system problems already existing in the proposed market – in particular small (and known/pre-determined) money supply. Adding to this small money supply a strongly unbalanced voting/price determination power is dangerous (and that is what the 10x margin does). What I mean is in order for the shorts to cast a vote (to say generally that the BitUSD is overvalued they need 9-10 times the resources/money  the counter party needs to say the BitUSD is undervalued). This misbalance will in itself  stay in the way of the market determining the fair price of the Bitassets but in the context of this discussion here is an example of market manipulation/attack that this misbalance facilitates.

One (the attacker) will need no more than 10% of the all BTXs to have full control over the demand for all BitAssets. That is to say he can match all asks in all assets even if everybody else is 1. Participating/actually placing orders in the market 2. everybody else is of the opinion that the BitUSD is overvalued (i.e. is placing a sell/short sale orders). In practice the attack will be possible with probably 1-3% of all BTXs to attack just one particular BitAsset.


Here is a very rough form of the attack (refining it is not that hard)
Having 10.01% of the all BTXs
1. Buy some arbitrary amount of all offered BitUSD (Let say 5%-10%) at the very beginning of the market at say price p1.
2.Place an ask order for the Bitasset bought in step#1 at let’s say 130.01% the purchase price p1.
3.Place big enough ask bid/s (as of quantity BTX offered up to 10% of all BTXs, but in practice you will need most of the time much smaller amount)  @ price sliding from 101% to  130% the p1 price. Effectively matching/swallowing all asks coming to the market.
The important thing here is that your demand for BitUSD is so big that you can ‘swallow’/match any possible ask coming to the market so you will inevitable drive the price to the desired level.
4. Keep a ‘hard bottom’ (placing a bid order/s @ 130% p1, for amount of BitUSD unsurpassable by any and all potential ask orders) until you have sold sufficient percent of the initial BitUSD (bought @100% p1and sold for 130.01% p1)
5. At your leisure push the price slowly from 130% p1 to let say 160% p1, as in step 3.
And cash in some more BitUSD @160.01% p the same way as in step 4.

If you asked me name the attack  -‘Unbalanced Forces Attack” (‘Unbalanced forces are forces that produce a non-zero net force, which changes an object's motion’)

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