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Messages - oldman

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496
General Discussion / Re: Arbitrage Opportunity... BitUSD bids are above market..
« on: August 26, 2014, 05:02:42 pm »
Quote from: mf-tzo on August 26, 2014, 03:36:04 pm
Ok we definitely need something that shows on the bitshares client live the prices from the different exchanges so we know if we can buy cheap BITUSD and support the peg...

 +5%

497
General Discussion / Re: How college age (and younger) will make BitShares the next big success story.
« on: August 26, 2014, 05:01:46 pm »
I agree and can confirm many/most Boomers I know are associating crypto with scam.


498
General Discussion / Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« on: August 26, 2014, 04:54:51 pm »
`
Quote from: trader on August 25, 2014, 11:39:29 pm
Quote from: OldMan on August 25, 2014, 11:30:00 pm
Quote from: trader on August 25, 2014, 11:06:29 pm
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.

Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.

What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.

ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).

All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.

Kind of a Hotel California scenario.

499
General Discussion / Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« on: August 26, 2014, 01:08:48 pm »
Quote from: patrickb323 on August 26, 2014, 01:01:13 pm
If value flows from BTC to bitBTC as described above,  won't the price of BTC crash?  and the peg take down bitBTC with it?

Yes, a negative feedback loop is entirely possible. Perhaps likely.

At which point the value will flow to the safety of bitUSD.

This is the extraordinary attribute of BTSX. The value, once arrived, never needs to leave.

500
General Discussion / Re: How college age (and younger) will make BitShares the next big success story.
« on: August 26, 2014, 12:36:09 pm »
Another thought - the younger gens have become accustomed to reading about members of their peer group becoming wealthy through various start ups.

Participation in the wealth created by these start ups has been largely limited to insiders and VC's. I know, from various conversations with GenX/Z/Millennials, that there is a general frustration with wealth creating vehicles of their generations being closed to all except a select few.

May want to look at marketing BTSX as a game-changing start-up that is open to anyone... with enough tech savvy to get in.


501
General Discussion / Re: How college age (and younger) will make BitShares the next big success story.
« on: August 26, 2014, 12:21:07 pm »
Look up the stats on the investment holdings of Gen X, Millenneals and Generation Z. They are holding cash/debt instruments and are under-exposed to income-generating assets.

The Boomers benefited from the 1960-2000 stock market run and are generally comfortable with investing in the stock markets.

The generations that followed have witnessed one horrible crash after another. The SP500 has not moved much since the 2000s and the volatility has been absurd. Just pull the 50 year SP500 chart.

The younger generations do not trust Wall Street with their money. Popular opinion is that Wall Street, Big Bank and Big Gov are all in bed together and conspire to funnel wealth from the general public.

But the younger generations are also highly educated and understand the need to invest in income producing assets. They just don't support the status quo and have voted with their feet.

You want a tidal wave of capital? Market bitShares to the GenX/Z/Millennials as the investment for a new generation. A technologically and morally superior alternative to Wall Street.

BTSX is not subject to the corruption of Wall Street, Big Bank, Big Gov.

You could show some slick market cap graphs and use phrases like "It's your turn."

The mobile interface is critical, but the message should not be "buy BTSX because we have cool doodads". It should be "BTSX is a profitable way to invest without trusting Wall Street/Big Bank/Big Gov with your money. We understand how you prefer to carry out business, so here are some best-of-class mobile apps to make things quick, convenient and easy."

502
General Discussion / Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« on: August 26, 2014, 11:58:19 am »
Quote from: luckybit on August 26, 2014, 12:25:29 am
Quote from: OldMan on August 25, 2014, 10:58:00 pm
Quote
And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

It certainly could, but it probably wont. Marketing would determine that as well as other factors.

The two chokepoints which are our bottlenecks are getting value into the ecosystem and having a way to get value out. We have found one way to get value in through fiat -> Coinbase -> Bter -> BTSX for example but it's not very efficient. Minebitshares is an attempt to solve this problem by bringing value in through mining but we need more on-ramps into the ecosystem.

If any of you can think of ways to create these on-ramps in and then the gateways out ASAP then it is possible we could have a market cap in the billions before the end of the year. If you can't get value in and out (value is distinct from money), then that limits the growth rate of our business.

I may have a lot of ideas but I don't have the resources to start businesses. Someone who does have the resources can use me as an advisor along with other creative thinkers in the community so we can push forward. If you want to see it happen and you have the resources to build a gateway service then crowd fund yourself like how Invictus did and recruit whoever you need from the community to make it happen.

I'm specifically looking at the $6bn of value parked in Bitcoin.

bitUSD works; so will bitBTC.

Once bitBTC is issued I can see no compelling reason to hold Bitcoin directly. Particularly if something like bitBTC5 is issued.

BTC enjoys a temporary advantage in the ability to make online purchases (Stan's checking/savings dichotomy), but this will fade as bitUSD circulates. In the interim it would be faster/easier to use bitBTC for purchases anyway.

bitBTC must necessarily be created from BTSX - so to create a billion to two in bitBTC, BTSX will need to increase in market cap by about twice that much.

What I'm saying is the initial run into the billions could be swift and without much resistance as value flows directly from BTC to BTSX. The pipeline is wide and unencumbered.

Thereafter, the usual fiat->crypto throttle will apply.

I'm a frequent Reddit and BTT reader and bitShares is not yet on the map; the BTC community does not see this coming.

If Brian markets well, bitShares will sweep through the Bitcoin community like a wildfire. The rush into BTSX/bitBTC/bitUSD/bitCNY could be an unprecedented market event that is not subject to the usual bubble and burst cycle. BTSX may well just bubble right into the billions without much of a pause.

503
General Discussion / Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« on: August 25, 2014, 11:30:00 pm »
Quote from: trader on August 25, 2014, 11:06:29 pm
Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see... ;)

504
General Discussion / Re: "its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"
« on: August 25, 2014, 10:58:00 pm »
Quote
And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

505
General Discussion / Re: BTSX > (NXT + XRP) on Coin Market Cap... Lets Publish our Feeds!
« on: August 25, 2014, 05:49:30 pm »
Quote from: JakeThePanda on August 25, 2014, 05:44:59 pm
Ok, so what's next?  :D

JK

This is actually a good point - is there a rollout plan for bitAssets? ie. bitUSD -> bitGLD -> bitCNY -> bitBTC etc?

Should at least let the delegates know via a launch schedule or similar so they can prepare.

506
General Discussion / Re: Why are linux users being ignored???
« on: August 24, 2014, 01:46:35 pm »
I too am a Linux user, but I do understand rollout will follow user base:

Ie. Win -> Mac -> Linux

All things come to he who waits.


507
General Discussion / Re: Stop Dumping please
« on: August 24, 2014, 01:41:27 pm »
$1 or bust. Hodling...

508
General Discussion / The Rise and Rise of BTSX
« on: August 22, 2014, 10:59:42 pm »
The market cap of BTSX is rapidly increasing and some folks are concerned that things are moving too far too fast.

What we are seeing is the value of the AGS/PTS funding model combined with a truly revolutionary technology.

Most large BTSX stakeholders are AGS/PTS investors rather than speculators, ie. not interested in short term profit taking.

A wider audience is waking up to the potential of this tech and they want in.

But few are selling... because why would we?

Bitshares is a tech with enomorous potential - it is everything Bitcoin tries to be and much, much more.

So take all those market cap calcs that were done for Bitcoin and round up.

A rapidly increasing market cap in completely justified.

In the near term, a market cap in the billions is inevitable. Longer term BTSX may well be the first trillion dollar crypto.

Do not sell yourselves short!

And yes, pun intended.

509
General Discussion / Re: BTSX Lending - Revenue w/o Counterparty Risk
« on: August 21, 2014, 04:31:43 pm »
Quote from: bytemaster on August 21, 2014, 03:07:31 pm
I don't see how this world work... if the borrower posts 1 XTS of collateral for ever 1 XTS loaned... what is being loaned?  Why do they need a loan if they already have XTS.

No such thing as a "risk free loan".... BitAssets are as close as you can get.

This lending service should be viewed more like a home equity loan (collateral > loan) than a margin or consumer credit loan (collateral < loan).

Fully collateralized lending enables borrowers to participate in asset appreciation (dividend/capital appreciation) while putting the value of the asset to work, presumably to earn a greater ROI than just hodling.

It's like taking a home equity loan at 4% and investing in a stock market returning 8%. You keep your house and still participate in capital appreciation but also increase your ROI on the value vested in the house.

When the loan term expires you pay back the capital plus interest and keep the spread.

XTS = house.

The really interesting aspect of loaning XTS is the burn; theoretically XTS is always appreciating in value. Lenders do not loose opportunity cost because they are repaid the same number of XTS lent... plus interest, also payable in XTS. So over the term of the loan the lender participates in XTS capital appreciation, dividend burn... and earns loan interest to boot.

Unless I'm missing something very obvious, everyone planning to just hodl XTS should be lining up to lend. Even 1% increase in ROI would be worthwhile vs. not lending/hodling.

Interest rates would trend to low end of the range as there is little risk and effort required. A large pool of low-rate XTS loan funds would become available for trading, hedging, revolving credit and other schemes.

This would also create a highly capitalized ecosystem that encourages responsible borrowing.

With regard to risk, if the loans are fully secured and the market making fully automated the only risk factor is the BitShares X DAC going rogue. This not happening is the whole point of a DAC, so if you subscribe to the concept of DAC you should not expect a risk premium.


510
General Discussion / Re: General Name for BitSharesX
« on: August 21, 2014, 02:06:00 pm »
The BITEX (bitEX, BitEX, BitEx) is a decentralized global electronic marketplace for buying and selling cryptographic derivative assets, known as CDAs or cryptives.


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