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Messages - Empirical1.1

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871
General Discussion / Re: We are in the lead and NXT knows this.
« on: September 02, 2014, 03:16:07 am »
Quote from: onceuponatime on September 02, 2014, 02:37:22 am
Quote from: eagleeye on September 01, 2014, 07:41:17 pm
The title has already been changed.  I may have strong opinions but I am pragmatic.

dealing with things sensibly and realistically in a way that is based on practical rather than theoretical considerations.
"a pragmatic approach to politics"
synonyms:   practical, matter-of-fact, sensible, down-to-earth, commonsensical, businesslike, having both/one's feet on the ground, hardheaded, no-nonsense; informalhard-nosed
"she remains pragmatic in the most emotional circumstances"
antonyms:   impractical
relating to philosophical or political pragmatism.
LINGUISTICS
of or relating to pragmatics.

Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness. Thereby you can be the director of the opponent's fate.

Sun Tzu

Too late...  :(

BTSX is @ no.4 so there will be many visitors

'Whether the object be to crush an army, to storm a city, or to assassinate an individual, it is always necessary to begin by finding out the names of the attendants, the aides-de-camp and door-keepers and sentries of the general in command. Our spies must be commissioned to ascertain these.'

Sun Tzu


872
General Discussion / Re: Cannot cancel BitUSD order
« on: September 02, 2014, 02:55:31 am »
Quote from: eagleeye on September 02, 2014, 02:51:13 am
Quote from: oasis on September 02, 2014, 02:23:23 am
Quote from: eagleeye on September 02, 2014, 02:16:57 am
Quote from: erick on September 02, 2014, 01:49:56 am
Quote from: yellowecho on September 01, 2014, 05:22:46 am
I'm also getting this error and have enough funds to cover any fees.  Shortly after it occurs it says "Not connected" and occasionally tries to sync to catch up... so I'm guessing that it's not canceling due to connection issues?

more than likely that is the problem , make sure you have the most recent version and good luck.

How do you update the software and can the software in the future update itself when your going to login?

Also bitshares.org should have an "Updates" page at the top.

BitShares doesn't release BTSX it's another company DACsunlimited

http://www.dacsunlimited.com/ you can also go to bitshares-x.info

At the moment you update it by downloading the latest version from there but it is very new software so there may be bugs etc. & frequent updates https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7962.0

Is bitshares.org on this forum and is bitshares.org = DACsunlimited?  If so they are immense allies

No they are separate. As far as I understand it, BitShares just develop most of the foundations for DAC's like BTSX but it's up to third parties or other companies if they want to release it.

Edit: So like BitShares.org is the website for the guys behind BitShares and this is the forum but DACsun is separate guys and company based in Hong Kong is my understanding


873
General Discussion / Re: Get Ready for another Ride!
« on: September 02, 2014, 02:42:49 am »
Quote from: MeTHoDx on September 02, 2014, 01:40:44 am


Buy side looks good on Bter.

Short term price is pretty irrelevant except for trading. BTSX today is somewhere between $45-75 million but the awareness is there and we've already seen $4 million 24hr volumes can arrive at the drop of a hat.

As soon as the market thinks the incentives for BitAssets are right, there's  a robust wallet and a decentralised developer system/process behind it, then the $ billion dollar plus valuation will be there so quick it will blow your mind imo.


874
General Discussion / Re: Cannot cancel BitUSD order
« on: September 02, 2014, 02:23:23 am »
Quote from: eagleeye on September 02, 2014, 02:16:57 am
Quote from: erick on September 02, 2014, 01:49:56 am
Quote from: yellowecho on September 01, 2014, 05:22:46 am
I'm also getting this error and have enough funds to cover any fees.  Shortly after it occurs it says "Not connected" and occasionally tries to sync to catch up... so I'm guessing that it's not canceling due to connection issues?

more than likely that is the problem , make sure you have the most recent version and good luck.

How do you update the software and can the software in the future update itself when your going to login?

Also bitshares.org should have an "Updates" page at the top.

BitShares doesn't release BTSX it's another company DACsunlimited

http://www.dacsunlimited.com/ you can also go to bitshares-x.info

At the moment you update it by downloading the latest version from there but it is very new software so there may be bugs etc. & frequent updates https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7962.0

875
General Discussion / Re: Nodes in Google Maps
« on: September 02, 2014, 12:16:38 am »
Quote from: trader on September 01, 2014, 12:05:56 pm
Looks very decentralized :) This would compare favorably with a map showing where the handful of mining pools are that control 99% of the hashing.

 +5% I really do like it  :)

I will be a buzz-kill and ask what the map with the locations of the developers looks like  :(
Or the size of the BTSX balances on exchanges like BTC38  :(

Unfortunately decentralisation is only as effective as the weakest link and BTSX is still 3 months+ away from not being incredibly centralised.

876
General Discussion / Re: AGS Funds to be used to buy BTSX
« on: September 02, 2014, 12:00:21 am »
I know AGS funds have been used to purchase BTSX but will you also be moving a portion of your BTC donations as well as your fiat hedge into their BitAsset equivalent?


877
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD Market Maker - Proposal for Discussion
« on: September 01, 2014, 09:42:40 pm »
Quote from: maqifrnswa on September 01, 2014, 09:33:38 pm
Quote from: oasis on September 01, 2014, 09:24:44 pm
The problem for me is that even though BTSX is a great investment on a risk/reward basis for BTSX holders it is probably the riskiest place in the world to store any derivative value in the form of BitAssets for the next 3 months.

If we don't recognise that there is a very big risk premium associated with owning BitAssets at this stage and let shorts compensate longs for that risk in some form then there will be very little demand for BitAssets imo.

honest academic question: why are bitassets more risky than BTSX? at first glance they should have identical risk, if one fails they both fail. If they have identical risks, then there is value in bitUSD only if 1 bitUSD today is reasonably worth 1 bitUSD tomorrow.

Simple example to demonstrate the risk profile -

Lets say there is a 50% chance BTSX succeeds and goes up 400% in 3 months and a 50% chance it fails sometime within 3 months.

If I own 1 BitUSD now, in 3 months I will either have circa $1 worth of value or no value. Ergo $1 worth of BitUSD is only worth $0.50 now using the above extreme example. 

If I own $1 BTSX now, in 3 months I will either have $4 of value or nothing. Ergo $1 worth of BTSX is worth $2 in the above example.

(However you equate the risk profile of BTSX in your own mind, BitAssets take a a lot of risk and none of the reward.)

Edit this is assuming a sudden failure.

878
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD Market Maker - Proposal for Discussion
« on: September 01, 2014, 09:24:44 pm »
Quote from: starspirit on September 01, 2014, 09:18:43 pm
The problem with an options market at this stage is that it is no more likely to correlate to the pegged value than BitUSD for the same reasons - lopsided supply/demand and it requires a developed social consensus. Secondly, an options market will not be divorced from the BitUSD market, as they are linked through arbitrage. A lot of option sellers for example will want to hedge their position by taking the offsetting delta position in the BitUSD market. So the price pressures between the two are inextricably linked. Thirdly the available liquidity will be spread between options and BitUSD, leading to less liquidity in BitUSD. All in all, I don't see how adding options at this stage adds anything but complexity.

The problem for me is that even though BTSX is a great investment on a risk/reward basis for BTSX holders it is probably the riskiest place in the world to store any derivative value in the form of BitAssets for the next 3 months.

If we don't recognise that there is a very big risk premium associated with owning BitAssets at this stage and let shorts compensate longs for that risk in some form then there will be very little demand for BitAssets imo.


879
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD Market Maker - Proposal for Discussion
« on: September 01, 2014, 05:01:01 pm »
Quote from: bytemaster on August 29, 2014, 03:12:02 pm
So what where does this leave us?
New BitUSD should only be created when there is demand for it at prices at or above parity.
All USD should be guaranteed a buyer at 90% parity.  This limits the risk to the downside.

Potential Problem: There will be little demand for BitUSD at prices at or above parity in the short term < 3 months.

1. I feel there is at least a 1/2% utility difference that comes from the cost and effort of converting BitUSD.
2. The wallet just being released has bugs etc. this introduces a risk premium that must be accounted for.
3. The problem BM already identified 'BitUSD vs USD will not track well in an immature market because BitUSD-deniers will not buy BitUSD and neither will believers.'

A market determined mechanism that incentivises BitAsset creation is needed in my opinion.

Potential solution: Bring the options contracts into the BitUSD creation mechanism by having shorts compete at parity (or slightly above*) by the fee they are willing to pay to longs.

Of course the problem is if shorts competed via fees that were paid immediately obviously BitUSD would track at parity less fees.

The Twist- Fees are payable in BTSX and are only redeemable after you have held the BitAsset you bought for at least 3 months
(If you sell your BitUSD before 3 months the fee gets paid to the network or the insurance fund.)

-Because the fee is paid in BTSX, the better BTSX does, the more their fee is worth so now people are incentivised to hold their BitAsset even if they think BTSX will do well. (This is important because even with traders tightening the range the peg will fluctuate considerably based on the short term fortunes of BTSX, this dampens that considerably so adds more stability.) 

-People selling before 3 months will be adding to the security of the network and appeal of BitAssets because their fees will add to the insurance fund.

This system will find a level that encourages BitAsset creation whereas at the moment there will be very little BitAsset demand.
This delayed gratification also discourages selling and so limits supply of BitUSD with no incentive attached.  (Shorts looking to cover will find very little BitUSD for sale driving the price of BitUSD (with no BTSX fee attached) up very close to the peg.)

(* I would actually like shorts to compete at the $1.01 level for BitUSD creation vs. the $1 level so that BitUSD with no incentives is worth $0.99-$1 vs. $0.98-99)

As BitAsset demand increases the fee will eventually become negligible.

880
General Discussion / Re: Main obstacle BTSX faces at current stage
« on: September 01, 2014, 02:40:01 pm »
Quote from: GaltReport on September 01, 2014, 02:19:36 pm
Quote from: ripplexiaoshan on September 01, 2014, 05:52:58 am
IMHO, the first priority thing is that we need a stable wallet without crashing and order disappear bugs. If GUI can be more user friendly, it will definitely attract more users to choose on chain market, instead of exchanges.

When most of BTSX holders stay at on chain market and trade btsx with bit Asset, the price of bitUSD/bitCNY/bitBTC on exchange will peg that of on chain market. However, a lot of users still can't even keep their wallet up without crashing, not to mention the market open order bugs.

As a matter of fact, last week the trend was very nice. Many of my friends who have millions of BTSX transferred their fund from exchanges to wallet, and was ready to play the market. However, hard fork and the following crash and market freezing make them lose temper and choose not to open their wallet before there is a very stable wallet.

So please focus on the bugs fixing, and forget about bitUSD pegging at this moment. Attracting more users to play in on chain market is the main motivation.

I might be wrong, but these are from my bottom heart.

 +5%

 +5%

881
General Discussion / Re: 0.4.9 will lost private key??(It's the account's owner key)
« on: September 01, 2014, 02:53:25 am »
I think you must save every time you make a new account.

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