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General Discussion / Re: Feature request: Automatic Crypto-coin <=> BitAsset gateway
« on: September 30, 2014, 09:36:25 pm »
Please discuss this proposal. Ask questions if anything is unclear.
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Looks like you updated VOTES HISTORY (x TOTAL VOTES) box and now it shows negative votes too. Thanks. I wonder if there is a way to distinguish between un-votes due to transfer to somebody else’s account from intentional down-votes... This would be very useful.
I would like to see chart showing number of total votes (x TOTAL VOTES) over time, not just vote tally. Number of votes shows how many people are voting for a delegate.
There simply are NO downvotes on the blockchain .. the "negative" votes you see are "netto" votes .. and usually have the size of the tx fee.
Suggestions:
Create another chart for each delegate's page where:
1. number of times a delegate is voted for and against (VOTES HISTORY (x VOTES)
2. Somehow I don't see negative votes shown anywhere. Vote tally goes up and down, but only up votes are visible in votes history box below.
3. Not only block number should be visible, but also date.
As you can see 618524 is the end of round 6124 where delegate bits' slot was last. On the next round however (6125 starting with block 618525) his time-slot is first.You have about 1/101 chance for this to happen every 1010 seconds.
I was under impression that all 101 delegates take turns to produce blocks in each round, so every delegate goes only once per round. Wrong assumption?
You have about 1/101 chance for this to happen every 1010 seconds.
I promised myself not to post in this thread!
You cannot know what percent of shares are "apathetic" or "available for voting" because shares held as bids/asks/collateral/cold storage may not be voting.
I was thinking some more about my above post. I realized that, instead of pulling a table of numbers out of thin air, we can derive the curve from geometric-random-walk theoretical model of how prices change over time. Basically you assume the current price incorporates all available information, and moves based on the cumulative effect (sum) of a bunch of small random events. Which means the price at time t will be drawn from a Gaussian distribution with mean equal to the current price and standard deviation proportional to sqrt(t). But this happens in log-space since investments compound, so it's actually log(price) that's Gaussian with standard deviation proportional to sqrt(t). (This is a widely used mathematical model of prices.)
The reason we require 1x collateral is we're trying to confine the probability of a black swan [1] at the expiration time T to some bound p_swan. I'm pretty sure if you believe the geometric-random-walk model, the log of the margin requirement should actually be proportional to sqrt(T). Setting the 360-day requirement to be equal to the original table gives us these numbers:Code: [Select]duration | min_rat
-----------|----------
14 days | 0.31x
30 days | 0.49x
60 days | 0.76x
90 days | 1.00x
120 days | 1.23x
180 days | 1.67x
270 days | 2.32x
360 days | 3.00x
[2**math.sqrt(t / 90.0)-1 for t in [14,30,60,90,120,180,270,360]] # python code to generate above numbers
A 3.0x collateral requirement for a 1-year short implies a 90-day time horizon for 1.0x collateral. But mathematical models are not reality, and allowing shorts with less than 1x collateral may be controversial in terms of adding black swan risk to the system. So I suggest using this formula / table, but forcing the minimum collateral to be at least 1x. The new table is:Code: [Select]duration | min_collateral | order_priority
-----------|-------------------|-----------------------
14 days | 1.00x | collateral_rat / 0.31
30 days | 1.00x | collateral_rat / 0.49
60 days | 1.00x | collateral_rat / 0.76
90 days | 1.00x | collateral_rat / 1.00
120 days | 1.23x | collateral_rat / 1.23
180 days | 1.67x | collateral_rat / 1.67
270 days | 2.32x | collateral_rat / 2.32
360 days | 3.00x | collateral_rat / 3.00
where of course collateral_rat is shorter_collateral / (price * quantity) and min_collateral is the minimum value of collateral_rat required for the short to execute.
[1] An adverse price movement that wipes out the collateral and puts the short "underwater," i.e. the BitUSD that must be destroyed to cover the short is more valuable than the collateral that would be unlocked.
you can issue a bugreport for the qt_wallet part over here: https://github.com/BitShares/qt_wallet/issues