Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Empirical1

Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 ... 59
181
General Discussion / Re: We passed Peercoin today on coinmarket cap?
« on: August 14, 2014, 06:10:37 pm »
We could be taking the no.5 spot soon.

DRK looks to be crashing, fell below 0.008 support level on their main exchange MintPal. 
Very little support on any of the exchanges below 0.008.

I'd rather we we're going up obv. but if we get into the top 5 it will be very good.

182
General Discussion / Re: August Newsletter
« on: August 14, 2014, 05:19:43 pm »
 +5% I like the coinmarketcap graphic. It would be good to repost that in forums particularly with a polished paragraph about the feature release, the marketing initiative and the fact that it's probably your last chance to buy BTSX as cheap or cheaper than what people were paying before the snapshot.

I like the idea of posting the snapshot graphic in the newsletter.

What do people think about mentioning & name-dropping in the marketing paragraph,  'On the Western side, we've just recently returned from an incredible St. Martin mastermind trip, that involved in depth discussions and potential future partnerships with marketing heavyweights such as 'Kevin Harrington of Shark Tank fame.'

Perhaps even add a picture?




Edit: I don't know if it's really for the newsletter but I think a hook worth mentioning when marketing BTSX is the high level of Chinese support. As Xeroc pointed out the initial huge Bitcoin spurt was driven by the idea that the Chinese were getting behind Bitcoin and part of one of the first pop's was China related too. BTSX has huge Chinese support as indicated by the BTSX/CNY volume.

184
General Discussion / Re: FDIC for BitUSD
« on: August 14, 2014, 03:49:19 pm »
All of that said lets consider very carefully this flash crash event because the numbers being thrown around about potential dilution are FUD.

I was working from your previous description of an extreme event -


The MAXIMUM ratio is ~33% based upon current rules which means almost all XTS would be locked up as collateral and the remaining XTS held in reserve to buy back USD to cover the collateral.    Under this situation a 65% flash crash would result in a $8.5 million short fall which would mean a 25% dilution event. 


The 'worst case in practice' seems less threatening to be sure. 

So the "worst case" is that all bids cancel at once and the new "high bid" is 25% of the old high bid (75% fall instantly).   All margin positions get called at once and 66% of the USD is purchased back by the collateral.  The remaining 33% of the USD is purchased back by issuing new shares.   So if you started with 30% of the cap represented by USD then you are looking at a 10% dilution in a "worst case" 75% crash.    In practice crashes will be slower, many of the positions will be covered without any dilution and less than 30% of the cap will be represented by USD.   So I think what we are looking at here is a whole lot of fear about a "bad event" that you can "hedge against" and is "unlikely" to happen where the potential losses from "dilution" are less than the average daily volatility of Bitcoin.


I agree with luckybit that it's less of a numbers problem than a marketing problem when you start adding the potential for unexpected dilution to a digital currency or DAC though.

I'll come back with some NXT FUD description of BTSX under '3' in a bit.

Edit:

(Please bear in mind the following is designed for maximum provaction and FUD. I know BTSX is more like a company than a currency. I'm just playing Devil's advocate and putting the worst anti-marketing out there now I can think. So that it can be counter-acted now rather than later.)

BTSX description from detractor, NXT/Bitcoin supporters etc.

Unlike other digital currencies or DAC's that have either no inflation like NXT or defined limited inflation like Bitcoin. BTSX has the ability to print new money when required just like the Federal Reserve & the other central banks we all know and love! But unlike central banks which only create a little bit of inflation, BTSX can create a lot all at once! So in a 50% flash crash for example, where you've already lost 50% of the value of your BTSX, we could devalue you by up to a further 25%! Won't that be a fun few hours to remember! But don't worry about the smart money & professional traders because a minority can hedge themselves and the rest will just sell very early on in a crash leaving the regular guys like you holding the bag when there's a problem. It's just like a real economy! Welcome to BTSX - The future of money!


185
General Discussion / Re: FDIC for BitUSD
« on: August 13, 2014, 09:40:05 pm »
Won't a small BTSX crash 25%+ cause an already extremely negative market to think a dilution event could be triggered soon? Thereby creating the flash crash you'd like to avoid as everybody rushes for the exits before a potential dilution event is triggered.

I don't think any market can offer participants 100% certainity that individual assets will be be redeemed at full value. Participants will already be evaluating the peg on risk of delegate compromise, technical bug & others things. The black swan trading event is just another risk that doesn't seem worth risking BTSX total issuance for. (Even though Bitcoin has inflation, a large part of it's value is derived from the certainity of Bitcoin issuance imo.)

You said participants can buy dilution event insurance/hedge, so I would let them buy it/offer it to them at purchase myself.

Small crash will NOT create potential for dilution because all positions will have been covered and thus all "risk" consumed.

Thanks well I'm always happy to go with BM choice anyway just trying to see a different POV.

I realise a small crash will not create the potential for dilution. However a >50% flash crash could trigger up to a ~25% dilution was my understanding.

So it would be like watching Bitcoin fall rapidly from $600 to $420 and knowing that if it hits somewhere in the  $300 range a ~25% dilution event could start kicking in that takes it to $240. (& probably more panic selling after that.) 

So while at $600 there's only a 33% flash crash risk. At $400 in a flash crash there's a 33% crash risk + huge dilution event risk (relative to that price). So there's an intelligent rush for the exits after a rapid drop from $600-$420 which actually helps create the 50-65%+ drop which otherwise would be incredibly unlikely to happen.

So it seemed that we'd now included incentives for market participants to turn a small flash crash into a big one was my concern.

We could limit the maximum XTS held in collateral to limit the exposure of the network.    After all it is all about relative market cap... if there is $1 BitUSD with a $100 Million XTS market cap then the potential dilution is very small (less than 1%).   I don't think many people would fear that.  It is only when $BitUSD as a percentage of the market cap approaches something like 33% that you risk such a huge dilution event.  I think you would see a slow steady fall when USD demand is that high.

I might have misunderstood the last sentence, but yeah I don't think BitUSD approaching 33% of CAP will create a crash. I think a BTSX flash crash will be instigated by an unrelated event but at that point, the presence of 25-33% BitUSD & or other assets to CAP will become the factor that could turn an unrelated ~25% flash crash into a bigger one by the manner described above.

Don't know if it's a big issue though. Just putting it out there.

186
General Discussion / Re: FDIC for BitUSD
« on: August 13, 2014, 08:05:05 pm »
Won't a small BTSX crash 25%+ cause an already extremely negative market to think a dilution event could be triggered soon? Thereby creating the flash crash you'd like to avoid as everybody rushes for the exits before a potential dilution event is triggered.

I don't think any market can offer participants 100% certainity that individual assets will be be redeemed at full value. Participants will already be evaluating the peg on risk of delegate compromise, technical bug & others things. The black swan trading event is just another risk that doesn't seem worth risking BTSX total issuance for. (Even though Bitcoin has inflation, a large part of it's value is derived from the certainity of Bitcoin issuance imo.)

You said participants can buy dilution event insurance/hedge, so I would let them buy it/offer it to them at purchase myself.

Small crash will NOT create potential for dilution because all positions will have been covered and thus all "risk" consumed.

Thanks well I'm always happy to go with BM choice anyway just trying to see a different POV.

I realise a small crash will not create the potential for dilution. However a >50% flash crash could trigger up to a ~25% dilution was my understanding.

So it would be like watching Bitcoin fall rapidly from $600 to $420 and knowing that if it hits somewhere in the  $300 range a ~25% dilution event could start kicking in that takes it to $240. (& probably more panic selling after that.) 

So while at $600 there's only a 33% flash crash risk. At $400 in a flash crash there's a 33% crash risk + huge dilution event risk (relative to that price). So there's an intelligent rush for the exits after a rapid drop from $600-$420 which actually helps create the 50-65%+ drop which otherwise would be incredibly unlikely to happen.

So it seemed that we'd now included incentives for market participants to turn a small flash crash into a big one was my concern. 

187
General Discussion / Re: We passed Peercoin today on coinmarket cap?
« on: August 13, 2014, 07:22:57 pm »

This isn't exactly good news. Money is leaving the ecosystem as a whole and adoption rate has slowed. Bitcoin prices are down despite good news and infrastructure development.


Yeah it's crypto-currency negative. I think mainstream advertising will be good for a Western audience, but I think the real kicker will be another trigger event like Cyprus on a bigger scale that will really drive DAC & crypto-currency adoption in the West. 

POS & DPOS does seem to be holding up well against POW though.

188
Follow My Vote / Market use cases other than election voting?
« on: August 13, 2014, 07:10:47 pm »
Hi Adam!  :) Just had a chance to look briefly at followmyvote. It seems from the site, that followmyvote is being pushed as mainly an alternative election voting system. Do you think you may face the problem Thomas Edison did with his first invention?   

Quote
Thomas Edison’s first invention patent (#90,646) was an electric voting machine. He spent a lot of time and effort on it. The machine was a marvelous vote tabulating machine, but Edison discovered that the last thing politicians wanted was a machine that could count votes accurately.
See more at: http://marketingconfessions.com/2011/07/thomas-edisons-7-billion-dollar-marketing-and-promotions/#sthash.pcRHpTXp.dpuf


Having said that it seems like there are a lot of other applications for the Vote DAC as well, like internet polls, perhaps distribution of crypto-currencies, shares, or samples to truly unique individuals and not bots, market research would be the big one.

Do you envisage building up support for it's efficacy by using some of these smaller use cases as a proving ground?

Why are their polls on the current site that ask me about US elections, surely the site doesn't know if I'm unique/bot & I'm actually from another country so my opinion would not be wanted by people interested in those poll results? 

189
General Discussion / Re: FDIC for BitUSD
« on: August 13, 2014, 06:38:34 pm »
Won't a small BTSX crash 25%+ cause an already extremely negative market to think a dilution event could be triggered soon? Thereby creating the flash crash you'd like to avoid as everybody rushes for the exits before a potential dilution event is triggered.

I don't think any market can offer participants 100% certainity that individual assets will be be redeemed at full value. Participants will already be evaluating the peg on risk of delegate compromise, technical bug & others things. The black swan trading event is just another risk that doesn't seem worth risking BTSX total issuance for. (Even though Bitcoin has inflation, a large part of it's value is derived from the certainity of Bitcoin issuance imo.)

You said participants can buy dilution event insurance/hedge, so I would let them buy it/offer it to them at purchase myself. 


190
General Discussion / Re: We passed Peercoin today on coinmarket cap?
« on: August 13, 2014, 05:53:24 pm »
 +5% Nice, position matters  8)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdcTmpvDO0I

191
Global Points:

1.  I don't remember anyone saying our marketing plans involved making an infomercial.

I saw you post an 'informercial style' selling script + asking for feedback in a thread titled 'informercial mogul Kevin Harrington gets behind bitcoin' hence the confusion my bad.

192
Quote
If BTSX is such a good speculative investment, why are we sharing it with you and not keeping it to ourselves?
To me the question doesnt make any sense because if everyone assumes that those who advertise it have already invested and have an interest that other people buy in (and no one is that naive to not assume that; and my marketing would not try to hide that) there would be no reason at all to hide it. It has to be made public so the initial investors can profit. The selling point is to buy in now so that you profit as well (a little less than the initial investors but still). And it's not a ponzi scheme because everyone will profit until the asset reaches it's fair value at which it will stay if it is adopted / has real world (mainstream) usage.

 +5% That's a good point

Edit: I've changed it a bit to reflect that, but it's probably about as much as I'll do on it, obviously they can approach it however they like, but you point is a good one.

193
Keeping a little something in BTSX could be a good idea. If Fiat and or banks collapse, your BTSX will be untouchable and will probably benefit as a safe haven much like gold.

Very accessible indeed - with no internet and no power grid.
Like a gold in undiscovered gold mine...

Lol. Prepping by definition involves 'preparation for many scenarios' . Power grid failure/attack/EMP are just some of many.
Many prudent preppers have some digital currency and many more can be sold on the concept because of the advantages listed above.


194
Quote
If BTSX is such a good speculative investment, why are we sharing it with you and not keeping it to ourselves?
Because the one's advertising it have already made their investments in it to a degree that they would not invest more?

That is the impression I would personally get, which is why I question an informercial, but my little paragraph is trying to counteract that impression, not easy though.

IF YOU ARE A PREPPER LOOKING FOR A FLEXIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO OUT OF CONTROL FIAT PAPER.

It is a one man's opinion, but considering preppers as a target demographic to 'sell' BTSX to is...what is the word I am looking for... anyway, amusing.

Absolutely If I was going to try that demographic I would say something like, 

IF YOU ARE A PREPPER LOOKING FOR A FLEXIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO OUT OF CONTROL FIAT PAPER.

Keeping a little something in BTSX could be a good idea. If Fiat and or banks collapse, your BTSX will be untouchable and will probably benefit from safe-haven demand much like gold. Your BTSX can also be accessed anywhere in the world at any time which is especially useful if you end up needing to cross borders in an emergency where hard assets may well be confiscated.


195
Here are a few off-the-cuff "infomercial style" selling points for why someone might want to buy lots of BTSX.

What other selling points should we push and what other types of buyers should we target?


IF YOU ARE A SPECULATOR SEEKING RAPID APPRECIATION

1.  BTSX is a better choice than Bitcoin if you are interested in rapid appreciation - it has better technology and much more room to grow.

2.  BTSX is a better choice for the growth investor than any other crypto-asset for the following reasons:

   It’s transactions are the fastest in the industry - exhilerating 10 second confirmations, not minutes or hours.
   It’s easier to use - named accounts not long crypto-keys.
   It’s transactions are completely private and untraceable.
   It spends its fees via elected delegates who compete to grow the industry rather than wasting them on environmentally unsound miners to burn precious energy resources.
   It gives some of its fees back to its holders by reducing the currency supply to increase their percentage share.
   It provides unique new services that will have very high demand - full-scale trading and low-volatility market pegged assets.
   It is part of the BitShares family of profitable unmanned companies - each reinforcing the brand recognition of all the others.  Own them all!
   It has this marketing campaign driving its growth.  No other coin does.  :)
   
All of these things make BTSX the best growth asset to own this fall.

IF YOU ARE A TRADER SEEKING NEW INVESTMENT FLEXIBILITY AND FREEDOM
   In a new domain where there is less experienced competition and no unfair high-frequency-trading.
   Where you can be a big fish in a new pond.
   Trade inside your "coin" without certain tax penalties associated with moving in and out of fiat until you are ready to "cash out".

IF YOU ARE A SAVER SEEKING A STABLE ALTERNATIVE TO BITCOIN VOLATILITY.
   Buy a digital asset that is market pegged to a more stable commodity or national currency.

IF YOU ARE A PREPPER LOOKING FOR A FLEXIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO OUT OF CONTROL FIAT PAPER.
   Keep your wealth outside the system but where you can easily access and use it without interference.

IF YOU ARE AN ENTREPRENEUR LOOKING TO RAISE FUNDS
   Issue your own assets and trade them against everything else.

USE BITCOIN FOR "CHECKING" AND BITSHARES FOR "SAVINGS"!
   Bitcoin has the most mature network of merchants and fiat on-ramps,
   BitShares lets you safely put to work what you don’t plan to spend right away where you control the mix of stability and leverage.
   Use the right tool for the right job.  They work together in powerful synergy.

Good Stuff, Thank you.  +5%

 +5% Not that I'm sure of the merits of an informericial but if there was one happening I think to have any chance of selling BTSX as speculative opportunity, you would also have to explain why a good 'speculative investment opportunity' is being presented on an 'informercial', this is the best I've come up with so far... (Excuse the hyperbole stuff, just trying to be more 'informercial')

-------------------------------

IF YOU ARE A SPECULATOR SEEKING RAPID APPRECIATION

If BTSX is such a good speculative opportunity why share it?

While it's no secret that we've invested in BTSX ourselves, unlike normal products where you just get to enjoy the benefits and we get to enjoy the profits, because BTSX is a limited decentralised currency, anybody that uses BTSX also becomes a shareholder in it just like us. So if you get BTSX at this stage, you will not only enjoy the use and advantages of BTSX but as more people adopt it, you will also experience the same potential investment returns that initial investors like us do!

The reason that it's actually in our interest as other early investors to share this opportunity with you, is because BTSX benefits from the value of 'the network effect'. The more people that use BTSX, the more businesses will rush to offer their products and services in exchange for it and the more convenient, popular and well known BTSX becomes, the more the average consumer will adopt it too, which in turn will drive its growth even more!
 
Ultimately BTSX will find a more stable level in the market with a more conservative level of average growth but this is unique opportunity to jump on the train when it has just left station. With Bitcoin, the growth spurt of turning a $10 000 speculative investment into $750 000+ took less than a year from a similar stage to where BTSX is now. However we believe that because the groundwork has already been laid by Bitcoin, that a superior game-changing decentralised currency like BTSX which is far more quick, convenient, secure, reliable and private could experience greater growth at an even faster rate!



Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 [13] 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 ... 59