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Messages - Empirical1

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871
General Discussion / Re: Announcing Angel Shares & BitShares Allocation
« on: January 03, 2014, 07:31:25 pm »
Ah, I've realised why the PTS price might be suppressed by the AGS allocation.

To get AGS you either need to contribute to the PTS or BTC fund.

But most Bitshares believers will already have made their max $ bitshare allocation into PTS.
But when they see that the BTC to AGS address is more lucrative than PTS to AGS they willl want to put BTC into there. However they've already invested their max $ into PTS, so the only way for them to unlock/offset funds for the BTC to AGS address is to sell PTS.

So the BTC to AGS address may inadvertantly create some selling pressure on PTS (by Bitshares believers) that is hard to offset with new demand in the quiet New Year week.

Is BTC to AGS address really more lucrative than PTS to AGS? Take Jan 1st, 2014 for example, there are 61.86 BTC totally to AGS and 2269.99 PTS totally to AGS, the price should be 1/61.86*5000 AGS/BTC=80.82 AGS/BTC, 1/2269.99*5000 AGS/PTS = 2.2 AGS/PTS alternatively. 1 PTS = 0.025 BTC on Jan 1st, 2014, rewrite the AGS/PTS price here, 2.2 AGS/PTS = 2.2/0.025 AGS/BTC = 88 AGS/BTC!!!

What do you really think???

What do I really think? (Well only because you asked the question in such unnecessary big red letters with three question marks.)

I think maybe you're not very smart???

Firstly: Day 1 was closer than you suggest. (PTS was 0.027 not 0.025)

& I think yesterday you will find that BTC to AGS was more favourable than PTS to AGS, which may inspire PTS to BTC selling today.

Secondly: The end of day prices you are using, don't show how the process I am suggesting played out. (Think of the addresses like balancing weight scales, if one gets too full early in the day, people may start putting there funds into the other address to even it out...)

Anyway the point is it's not a bad thing if my idea is partly correct,  because, once the general crypto market gets busier next week, the trend will probably reverse. (Especially when some form of Keyhotee is released, because even though it's not related to Bitshares it inspires confidence in the team behind Bitshares.)

So all it means imo is that this is a GREAT week to buy both PTS &/or AGS  because both are potentially much cheaper than they will be next week.

872
BitShares AGS / Re: [AGS] Angelshares day 1 statistics.
« on: January 03, 2014, 06:45:08 pm »
Could someone update the daily statistics in this or another thread?

I will keep the OP updated.

Cool, thanks  :)

873
BitShares AGS / Re: [AGS] Angelshares day 1 statistics.
« on: January 03, 2014, 06:04:26 pm »
Could someone update the daily statistics in this or another thread?
I know there are links you can click on, but it would be nice if a daily update was available on this website

Day 1:

Angleshares value in PTS: 2.133 AGS/PTS = 9.50 USD. Total donations today: 2,343.996 PTS = 47,770.64 USD.
Angleshares value in BTC: 80.825 AGS/BTC = 9.28 USD. Total donations today: 61.862 BTC = 46,693.44 USD.

Day 2:

etc.

874
Keyhotee / Re: Keyhotee Launch Parties
« on: January 03, 2014, 03:39:44 pm »
I think Keyhotee will be able to get some good press, which will help it take off very quickly.

The hot topic in both the alternative and MSM right now is the over-reach of the NSA, so Keyhotee couldn't be released at a better time IMO.

I hope the marketing director has made a good press pack for Keyhotee, maybe also with a shortened video explaining it.  (The current 10 minute one cut down to a minute or something with the video slides available seperately.)

I can see lots of articles that start out headlined, something like 'Want your online privacy back from the NSA? Don 'Keyhotee' has arrived...'

(Obviously Keyhotee is much more than this, which can be explained in the article but this is probably the marketing angle/hook the press will take and it will give Keyhotee the most exposure.)

875
General Discussion / Re: Announcing Angel Shares & BitShares Allocation
« on: January 03, 2014, 01:50:47 am »
Ah, I've realised why the PTS price might be suppressed by the AGS allocation.

To get AGS you either need to contribute to the PTS or BTC fund.

But most Bitshares believers will already have made their max $ bitshare allocation into PTS.
But when they see that the BTC to AGS address is more lucrative than PTS to AGS they willl want to put BTC into there. However they've already invested their max $ into PTS, so the only way for them to unlock/offset funds for the BTC to AGS address is to sell PTS.

So the BTC to AGS address may inadvertantly create some selling pressure on PTS (by Bitshares believers) that is hard to offset with new demand in the quiet New Year week.


876
General Discussion / Re: Announcing Angel Shares & BitShares Allocation
« on: January 02, 2014, 08:21:18 pm »
We also announced that BTS would be 2x as profitable as mining fees would no longer be split with miners.

Brilliant.

I also agree with MrJeans that the Keyhotee launch will actually be very good for PTS, AGS & Bitshares because people will see that you guys are actually able to deliver the ground-breaking products you're talking about.


877
General Discussion / Re: Announcing Angel Shares & BitShares Allocation
« on: January 02, 2014, 07:29:26 pm »


On Christmas Day I was asking, "Where's the Kaboom?  There's supposed to be an earth-shattering kaboom!"




I honestly think the information just got lost the way it was announced. I thought this thread 'Announcing Angel Shares & BitShares Allocation ' was just about how AGS relates to Bitshares.  I didn't notice till yesterday that you'd decreased Bitshares from 20 million to 4 million.

I guess people will see these posts now, but I also think you should consider starting another announcement thread, because I know I would be upset if I'd missed this. Something like -
 
Attention Protoshares holders:  PTS now worth 5x more Bitshares.

Instead of the initially proposed 20 million Bitshares, there will now only be 4 million Bitshares.
This means that Protoshares holders will now be issued with 50% of all Bitshares. (Up from 10% previously)

See full announcement here -
website -



878
General Discussion / Re: Announcing Angel Shares & BitShares Allocation
« on: January 02, 2014, 05:05:35 pm »

We are establishing the share allocation of BitShares 1.0 which will have 4 million total shares.  2 million will be allocated proportional to PTS holders and 2 million proportional to AngelShare (AGS) holders.


Hi guys, I just wanted to confirm this was right.

Will there still be 20 000 000 Bitshares in total and AGS & PTS will make up 4 million of that total?
Or will there only be 4 million BTS in total now?

Thanks

Edit: Ok pretty sure it looks like 4 million total from the posts above but just wanted to confirm as makes a big difference.

Total of 4 million. Period.

This is EPIC. (I would have replied yesterday but I bought up loads of PTS after you clarified that!)

According to my calculations -

From the launch of PTS up until 1 week ago, PTS only made up 10% of Bitshares issuance. (2 million PTS would be given the first 2 million Bitshares out of a total of 20 million Bitshares.)

Nearly everybody was buying PTS to get Bitshares.

So when PTS was +-$20 each, it was really valuing those future Bitshares at up to $20 each.
Given that there would be 20 million Bitshares, PTS was implying a speculative market cap for Bitshares of up to $400 million. (20 million x $20 = $400 million)

The announcement that there will now only be 4 million Bitshares is EPIC. PTS now gives you 5x more of the total Bitshares issuance (50% vs. 10%) than it did a week ago! (I.e. The speculative market cap of Bitshares is now divided by 4 million not 20 million. Potentially revaluing PTS from $20 to $100 each!) It will be interesting to see how much of that adjustment the market price will reflect in the next week or two! (Edit: Personally I think PTS could easily be trading at $50 in two weeks, let's see if I'm right...)

Other: (Because of the illiquidity of Angelshares, my maths says I need about 1.8 AGS per PTS to make it worthwhile exchanging my PTS for AGS at this stage. My ratio will decrease as we get closer to the Bitshares launch provided good progress is visible. However I'd be interested to hear how other people value AGS ATM.) 




879
General Discussion / Re: Announcing Angel Shares & BitShares Allocation
« on: January 02, 2014, 03:22:47 am »

We are establishing the share allocation of BitShares 1.0 which will have 4 million total shares.  2 million will be allocated proportional to PTS holders and 2 million proportional to AngelShare (AGS) holders.


Hi guys, I just wanted to confirm this was right.

Will there still be 20 000 000 Bitshares in total and AGS & PTS will make up 4 million of that total?
Or will there only be 4 million BTS in total now?

Thanks

Edit: Ok pretty sure it looks like 4 million total from the posts above but just wanted to confirm as makes a big difference.

880
We now need centralised Angelshares? Have you decided on a later date for 'Godshares' yet...   :)

Mastercoin really got a terrible reputation after their centralised issuance. Now you're going to do it too & worse, you're doing it after you already went the route of PTS funding first! Now I've seen it all!  :)

To be constructive though, despite the hiccup at the start, people probably feel that Protoshares have been issued in a fairly decentralised way. You would probably be able to decrease the stated Bitshare issuance thereby increasing the value of Protoshares as long as you only made such a huge market moving move ONCE.

(Obviously you could just purchase PTS before the announcement and get more than enough funding that way and as sickening as this move might be in terms of insider trading. It will probably be infinitely better for your reputation than trying to issue Angelshares after having initiated Protoshares. (Whether or not PTS is unaffected or benefits.)

In terms of trying to launch. Another group could just steal your Bitshares platform and start it in a fairer, more transparent and decentralised way and potentially receive massive support from the crypto community that may shun you for going about funding in the way you are suggesting right now.

(Also part of the point of mining is that the shares are issued in a fair, decentralized way, based on maths not human/centralized estimation of value - ie. as in the form of development bounties. Also the miners then bring those shares to the market in a fair decentralised way so that investors feel they are more likely to be paying fair market value not an inflated Quark price because of hoarding/other price manipulation schemes.)


881
I was quite skeptical of bitshares initially, but having looked at Mastercoin, I prefer Bitshares, the team behind it and the way you've gone about including the community more.

I have to echo what Gekko has said though, the marketing is super important in terms of inspiring confidence at these early stages. Look at Megacoin, they are an example of being a clone but with a good website and wallet and yet I'm confident they can take the no.3 market cap spot for the interim meanwhile PTS which is the most groundbreaking and profit+, may struggle to stay in the top 10 till bitshares is released.

All you need is a bitshares website that animates that graphic you have of the bitshares icon with the currencies in a circle around it. If you make it 3D and have the currencies turning in a circle, and have them grow bigger when your mouse hovers over them is an idea.
Also succinctly  explaining the bitshares concept on the front page in 1 inspiring sentence.

I appreciate that you guys are some if the best technical guys out there and the marketing is rightly 'fluff' compared to developing bitshares. But in terms of maximising the PTS development budget and inspiring confidence that there is a team that's on the ball and behind this, a sexy website will quintuple the short term valuation which will keep you in the top 10 market caps till launch which is advertising enough for the thousands of people that are looking to invest in the next development phase of this technology. Just my 2cents. (Think of your fav products - they can't wrap them in no name white packaging - as superficial as it is, the branding is key.)

(PS. Please announce if you're going to release a new website so I can buy more PTS b4 it comes online :) )

882
Thanks for the reply Bytemaster!

Remember, BitBTC is a promise to pay 1 BTC worth of value in BTS.  It can never manipulate the value of BTC itself.

Similarly, a Comex contract is a promise to pay 1 Ounce Au worth of value in $ & yet it easily manipulates the value of Au itself?

(In theory Comex can settle in Au but they make in difficult to do for most participants.)

So atm I still think my above concerns are valid. Though I do see that unlike US$, which the Comex manipulators have unlimited access to, and which are printed by a central source. BTS have a cap and have to be acquired on the open market so it's possible that my concerns are moot even if BTC buyers and sellers start pricing off BTS because they think it gives a more accurate indication of BTC value than centralised exchanges.

Also I should add I do actually own PTS for BTS even though i have these newb concerns, thanks for taking time to explain some of it, Im sure I'll understand it better eventually :)



883
To add on to what phoenix is said, don't forget that we are on the verge of decentralized exchanges. Mastercoin, Colored coins, Bitshares itself. Why would we follow bitbtc when we can just look at the value of the real thing.

Thanks for the replies guys.

As the Bitshares video and you seem to say smiley35, it is hard to derive the true value of BTC from centralized exchanges so we would be checking decentralized exchanges to 'look at the value of the real thing?'

But when you say 'why would we follow the bitbtc ratio to derive the value of BTC', do you mean bitshares will be such an insignificant decentralized exchange when compared to Mastercoin/colored coins that most people will be discerning the real (non centralized exchange) BTC value from them instead?


 

884
General Discussion / Is Bitshares worse for crypto than Comex is for gold?
« on: November 26, 2013, 05:02:10 pm »
Hi, I woke up in a cold sweat last night, as I said in a previous post I'm a newbie to bitshares, can you please explain how my following train of thought is wrong...

People take the price for gold from the Comex which we all know is a scam because Comex owns and trades very little of the underlying asset, gold. It allows nefarious actors to manipulate and suppress the gold price by taking massive Comex short positions even though in the real world they would have no hope of getting enough of the underlying to cover that position.

So how did the 'Majority' become dumb enough to trust the Comex price? Is it the same way they may become dumb enough to trust the Bitshares price?

Right now as a Bitshares video points out, BTC's value is different on all exchanges, depending on many factors. So it would be very useful if there a way to derive a true decentralized value for BTC? Wallah! Bitshares!

At first Bitshares will give an accurate price for BTC that reflects available information, so in a short time people will start to trust that the best idea of BTC price is derived from bitshares and not from a particular centralized exchange.

However people are taking long/short positions on BTC via bitshares without owning the underlying BTC?  So pretty soon nefarious actors, (Gov and traditional banks) will be able to influence and suppress the BTC price by taking massive positions. And by then even if the core BTC community knows the bitshare price is a sham (like Comex) there will be enough mainstream BTC adopters that still believe bitshares is a fair reflection of available BTC information.

Should we be praying for the future of cryptos and humanity that bitshares fails spectacularly?
  :-\

885
General Discussion / Might Bitusd trade at a discount to real USD?
« on: November 26, 2013, 04:55:34 am »
Hi newbie here, I didn't grasp all the information regarding bitshares so apologies if the following doesn't make sense...

As you mentioned in one of your videos, all BTC are not equal, the value of the BTC on different exchanges can vary based on things like the perceived riskiness of the exchange & expected time delay for receiving fiat.

Is it possible that Bitusd will trade at a slight discount to a real USD? Because in order to make a bitusd into a real USD you will still have to go through an exchange. So even though that is not the purpose of your exchange,  I think the market will price in the avg. fees, risks and time delay associated with changing a bitusd to real USD?

As also won't the biggest market for bitusd be real world merchants (or companies that service those merchants)?
Right now most merchants don't want to sell for BTC because they don't want to be exposed to the volatility but they may happily sell for Bitusd because then they can capture the BTC market without BTC volatility risk but only if the bitusd price reflects the costs to them of changing Bitusd into real USD. (Unless service companies can deposit real $ into merchants accounts in exchange for Bitusd for less than a 2.5% service charge, then I guess they BitUsd could = Real Usd if merchants are the ones willing to take the fee in exchange for access to the crypto-market the way they currently do with credit cards.)

Edit: I guess bitpay already offers the above service/market to merchants.

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