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Messages - bitcrab

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106
中文(Chinese) / Re: bitCNY/bitUSD的进化
« on: May 12, 2019, 10:44:05 am »
其实还有个思路。
你创建一系列 GDEX.XXXCNY 智能资产,比如GDEX.BTCCNY GDEX.ETHCNY GDEX.EOSCNY
抵押品用 GDEX.BTC GDEX.ETH GDEX.EOS,作为 bitcny 的补充,曲线救国。
参数方面爱怎么设就怎么设。但最好不要天天调。
宣传一下,估计会有人玩。
有人玩的话,搬砖机器人就会保证一定的流动性。
虽然GDEX是我的,我也保证不了GDEX一定不出事啊,把机制寄托在GDEX发行的资产上,有什么意义呢?
我要是觉得自己的或者GDEX的信用足够强,决定自己去创造信用,那就去发行一个QC或者CNC之类的资产好了,还搞什么抵押啊,累不累呀。

107
我想知道,如果BTC再次下跌到3千美元探底,BTS是不是一定会到0.05元人民币?

0.05哪够啊,再怎么着也得探到2分不是吗?

108
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 10, 2019, 07:58:09 am »
Again, our feeds are not every second. It's a price snap shot taken within some specific period 20-40 minutes (2 in your case) so it's an unreasonable statement based on some snapshot in time. price feeds should average out to a true price among all witnesses. Look at the screen shots later on, my price happen to be 2% above on the other side of that price medium is that a warning also?
And when will GDEX start feeding all prices? Should be unvoted  by proxies until it does.

feed price should reflect the real market price, 20-40 minutes as price taking period is not acceptable.

"the higher, the better" is not my opinion. but now the main problem of feed price is some witnesses always feed too low price. we need to focus on this.

it's not difficult for me to request my coder to add feed price to all the smartcoins, but I am not sure that will make big sense.

taking bitEUR as one example, it has a supply of 57000 EUR and 24hour volume is about 4000 BTS, there are many users and important community members that come from Europe, but anyone care bitEUR?

if we really want to cultivate bitEUR, we need to consider to change something, such as MSSR, MCR, market fee etc., but seems no one want to do that.


109
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 10, 2019, 07:47:51 am »
only got round to accessing my feed script today just now.

My feed was actually the highest just now without changing anything a few hours later...I know we all wish BTS never moved down but guess what...it does....are we gonna have this discussion and people calling hard-working witnesses names EVERY time BTS moves down? Let me know so I can be prepared. It's crypto...it's volatile...it goes up and and it goes down. I don't like it either but it happens.

Still... I disabled the outlier CoinEgg component of the feed as it seems untrustworthy. Feed now 4% above median

I don't think the higher feed price, the better, feed price should reflect the real market price. as feed price will have direct impact some operation, such as margin call, borrowing, force settlement.

it is not easy to judge what is "real market", but at least we can have some principles:

first, it is to get DEX price plus with smartcoin premium/discount as a reference, this is the most important reference.

second, it's not good to get average price of too long period and feed, an average of 5 min should be fine.

110
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 09, 2019, 01:47:50 pm »
While we are at it, I started working on a python project that is supposed to automatically disapprove (unvote) witnesses that provide inaccurate feeds (relative to price feed) here:

https://github.com/xeroc/witness-monitor

Any development resources to improve that would be welcome.

that's great.

I also would like to have one tool to provide convenience to voters to estimate witnesses' work.

say, integrate all the price feed data from each witness to a candle chart, with modified DEX price, that will also help a lot.

111
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 09, 2019, 12:18:23 pm »
Time: UTC 9th May 12:15





Warning:delegate-1.lafona, sahkan-bitshares, witness-hiblockchain, zapata42-witness, xeldal at the time feed a 2%+ lower price than reasonable.

112
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 09, 2019, 11:38:43 am »
Time: UTC 9th May, 19:30

at the time in in huobi BTS price is 0.0507 USDT, USDT OTC price is 6.85 CNY fiat, then 1USDT = 1.004USD, 1BTS = 0.0509USD
this value is consistent to DEX price.






Warning: xeldal feed a price of 0.0496USD, 2.6%+ lower than the reasonable price, please review your price feeding script.

113
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 09, 2019, 10:49:58 am »
Fixed. High volume but huge spread in CoinEgg causing huge different in witnesses' price feed.

Compare trading price/volume at different exchanges:


Orderbook in CoinEgg:


this remind us that it's important to filter out the data which is inconsistent with real market, "the price feed should not conflict with the DEX price plus an bitCNY premium/discount offset" can be a good reference in judging the data from CEXs.

114
BTS need to encourage bitCNY supply when it is in obvious premium and shortage.

a lower MSSR can help to make the yellow order highly placed and create chance for traders to borrow more with low CR and get profit.

I have explained this idea at  https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28367.0

there is a price called "switch price", at which BTS/bitCNY pair switch from "margin call orders is eaten instantly" to "yellow orders highly placed" status, this price is relevant to market depth, market emotion and MSSR, currently the switch price for bitCNY is about lower than 0.4CNY.

if the price is below switch price, traders get incentive to borrow more and buy BTS, however there is accumulated risk; if the price is above switch price, yellow orders will be eaten instantly and no risk accumulated, but traders are not so incentivized to borrow more.

for bitCNY it will be good to make the switch price  a little higher by lowering MSSR, it will encourage bitCNY supply and also lower the premium.

set MSSR=1.01 for bitCNY is a good choice, let's do that!

115
中文(Chinese) / Re: bitCNY/bitUSD的进化
« on: May 09, 2019, 07:29:52 am »
存在一个“转换价格”,就是从“随爆随吃”状态转到“黄单高悬”状态的价格,这个价格并不是一个固定的价格,受市场深度和情绪影响,也高度依赖于MSSR,但这个价格对于评价安全还是很有用处的。

目前MSSR=1.02的情况下,bitCNY的转换价格是大约0.4CNY不到一点,对应最高0.25的全局清算价,应该说还是很安全的。

如果把MSSR降为1.01,根据经验,bitCNY的转换价格大约会变为0.5CNY或者不到一点,对应最高0.313的全局清算价。

换种说法呢,如果MSSR降为1.01,在大约0.5CNY以下的价格区间内,都会有比较强的贴线抵押加仓的动力,为系统提供良好的流动性,但有一定的爆仓单累积的风险,最坏结果是在0.313处进入黑天鹅防护状态。在0.5CNY之上呢,不会产生爆仓单累积带来的风险,但贴现抵押加仓的动力也会变小。

bitCNY生态发展意味着这个转换价格需要慢慢变高,用MSSR越来越接近于1来实现。

116
开了个新帖:https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28383.0

以后喂价问题去那里提供证据,投诉喂价不合理的见证人

117
General Discussion / Re: Price Feed Review
« on: May 09, 2019, 05:11:40 am »
CNY price feed review:
time: UTC 9th May 5:01

BTS price calculated from DEX price and bitCNY premium/discount:0.35061*[1+(2.65%+1.91%)/2) = 0.3586





Warn: bangzi, clockwork, roelandp feed a price which is 5.4%+ lower than the reasonable price at the time, please review your feeding scripts.

118
General Discussion / Price Feed Review
« on: May 09, 2019, 04:59:06 am »
This thread is to replace https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28265.0

Feed Price is so important that we need some mechanism to review/audit it.

If anyone in BTS community find that some witnesses do bad in price feeding, please provide proof here to show to all, voters should also get information from thread and decide to support or not support which witnesses.

In bitCNY price feed, I'd like to emphasize one principle,which get strong consensus from China community: the price feed should not conflict with the DEX price plus an bitCNY premium/discount offset.

 

119
As the poll worker proposal 1.14.187 has been voted active and got more support than the "do not change" worker proposal 1.14.188, MCR of bitUSD will change from 1.75 to 1.6.

The change will happen after  UTC 00:00 13th, May, 2019.

Every witness is requested to update the feeding script to publish 1.6 as MCR of bitUSD, please do the job after UTC 00:00 13th, May, 2019 and finish before UTC 00:00 15th, May, 2019.

For more information about the poll for this change, please check https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=28352.0

120

四毛随爆随吃,当然和MSSR有关,如果降到1.01,也许就不是四毛随爆随吃了。

黄单高挂可以增大做空获利难度,也可以保持bitCNY供应量不紧缩,还对价格形不成打压,够了,爱怎么滚怎么滚呗。还能怎么样?

110%?就算50%又怎样?该防护还是要防护啊。

你只是猜测“ 也许”, 以四毛当时的市场情绪, 就是MSSR=1.10,也是随爆随吃。

“黄单高挂可以增大做空获利难度,也可以保持bitCNY供应量不紧缩,还对价格形不成打压,够了,爱怎么滚怎么滚呗。还能怎么样?”

既然这样,直接取消强平就行了,还要强平有什么用处?就为了前期下跌时消化的那一点点爆仓量?意义很大吗?

“110%?就算50%又怎样?该防护还是要防护啊。”

这个没法跟你讨论,因为都不在一条路子上,这也不是做抵押锚定资产所应有的解决办法,全局抵押率都不够100%,而且没有处理措施,说明这个抵押机制是失败的。
要的就是在一个合适的价格从随爆随吃状态转入黄单高挂状态,现在bitCNY这个价格大约是四毛左右,对应的是0.23的全局清算价,有点低。

当然意义很大,假设现在这种状态从1块跌到4毛,消化的爆仓量是“一点点”?

黑天鹅防护本身就是处理措施,保持账面无坏账,同时让市场来选择,是不断来吃爆仓单提高全局抵押率还是让bitCNY贬值。

从黑天鹅防护状态恢复并不难,比黑天鹅复活要容易地多。


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