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Messages - bitcrab

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916
中文 (Chinese) / Re: 喂价反馈紧急修正案
« on: November 29, 2018, 04:38:23 am »
4很难执行,建议取消。
还有,建议把上调的范围限制在市场价*MSSR范围内,以防止爆仓单风险累积。
不好意思,上午在忙回复较慢。
感谢巨蟹的回复,若难执行,赞同取消4。 
   但现在MSSR只有10%,若只比市价高10%,根据以往经验估计对溢价控制的力度太小,若有这个限定,感觉负反馈就基本没效果了。根据以往经验,出现喂价大幅高于现价的情况并没有什么危害,只要CNY允许有波动范围即可,爆仓爆不掉,并不是喂价下调不够,反而是下调过快,没有时间搬砖,导致CNY在允许波动范围内喂价过分下调。

之所以现在有较大的反对声音,就是因为喂价高过现价太高,导致爆仓单价格比现价高不少,结果是爆仓单累积,直接增大了黑天鹅发生的可能性,现在这个时间如果不加上这个限制,感觉很难获得足够支持。

917
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Witness Proposal] gdex-witnness
« on: November 29, 2018, 04:17:17 am »
plan for next update on bitCNY:

Pdex:BTS price in DEX in smartcoin
Pf: current feed price
premium: current premium
GS_price: global settlement price

scale= 0.5;
get Pdex, Pf, premium, GS_price;

black_swan_protection_price = GS_price*MSSR*1.01

while True:
   
   get Pdex, Pf, premium;
   if 0.5%>premium>-1%: ##just adopt the current median if the absolute premium is low enough.
       feed price = Pf;
   else:
       feed price = Pf*(1+premium*scale);
   feed price = min(feed price, Pdex*MSSR)
   feed price = max(feed price, Pdex, black_swan_protection_price)
 
   time.sleep(120); ##update every 2 minutes.

918
毋庸置疑BSIP42增加了黑天鹅发生的可能性,但把这次USD黑天鹅都归因于BSIP42是不公平的,最大的原因还是大熊市市场大跌。

即便是并不支持BSIP42的自称“保守的德国人”的pc,也认为“这样的市场大跌,即便没有BSIP42,黑天鹅也很可能发生。”

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=27451.msg325185#msg325185

不明白“这些实验和改革的失败是注定的”这样的结论如何得出来的,路上不小心踩了一个坑,哪里就能立刻得出此路不通的结论。

919
中文 (Chinese) / Re: 喂价反馈紧急修正案
« on: November 29, 2018, 02:35:41 am »
4很难执行,建议取消。
还有,建议把上调的范围限制在市场价*MSSR范围内,以防止爆仓单风险累积。

920
中文 (Chinese) / Re: 请见证人对bts负责任!
« on: November 28, 2018, 02:42:19 pm »
同意,在当前这样的情况下没有事先定义和公布规则,仅仅因为反对票突然多了就改成按原市场价喂是很不负责任的行为。

921
General Discussion / Re: how to revive bitCNY?
« on: November 28, 2018, 02:35:38 pm »
as currently there is big quantities of margin call orders, gdex-witness feed max(market price*MSSR, black swan protection price) to protect price from being pushed down with the positive feedback effect.

I agree that it's better to feed market price and set MSSR to a value close to 101%, however this need more discussion to reach consensus.

922
BSIP42是有缺陷的,就是当喂价偏离市场真实价格时,爆仓,强清等等都会收到影响。

当初无论是abit还是我都清楚这一点,但因为动态MCR方案暂时无法实施,所以就选择了退而求其次。

然后就遇到了大熊市。。。

智能货币有一个最基本的悖论,足额抵押和足够供应是很难同时满足的。

那是不是不要再追求锚定了呢?我不这么认为。

接下来如果社区可以达成共识,采取动态MCR方案,那么在不遇到极端情况的前提下,是可以做到精确锚定的,而且也消除了负反馈喂价方案的缺陷。

当遇到极端情况,就让系统接管喂价,保证喂价不低于黑天鹅价。让系统慢慢恢复。就象现在的bitCNY这样。

不赞成动态MCR,那样系统又会不断制造爆仓单,系统参与交易过程,应该像央行调存款保证金那样,很长时间内保持一个定值。锚定精度由MSSR适度保证,譬如MSSR=1.05,基本可以保证锚定精度在正负5个点,这就够了。刚性锚定最脆弱,这次负反馈的失败就是太追求锚定精度所致。柔性适度锚定最强大,数字货币动辄涨跌几十倍,bitCNY作为稳定币正负5个点内的波动根本不算什么,足够好了。

5个点都不算什么,那就干脆别做稳定币了。

与由见证人通过喂的方法调节MCR的方式相比,我也更希望用类似比特币网络调难度那样的方法执行,比如让见证人喂溢价,系统每小时一次根据溢价来调节MCR,溢价在+-1%内保持MCR不变,如果偏离则相应调节一个百分点。

这样的好处是交易者可以预见到MCR会如何调节,提前应对。

923
BSIP42是有缺陷的,就是当喂价偏离市场真实价格时,爆仓,强清等等都会收到影响。

当初无论是abit还是我都清楚这一点,但因为动态MCR方案暂时无法实施,所以就选择了退而求其次。

然后就遇到了大熊市。。。

智能货币有一个最基本的悖论,足额抵押和足够供应是很难同时满足的。

那是不是不要再追求锚定了呢?我不这么认为。

接下来如果社区可以达成共识,采取动态MCR方案,那么在不遇到极端情况的前提下,是可以做到精确锚定的,而且也消除了负反馈喂价方案的缺陷。

当遇到极端情况,就让系统接管喂价,保证喂价不低于黑天鹅价。让系统慢慢恢复。就象现在的bitCNY这样。


924
General Discussion / Re: how to revive bitCNY?
« on: November 28, 2018, 05:26:10 am »
positive feedback appear again.

margin called order eaten -> global settlement price come down-> feed price come down->more debt position margin called.

in several hours the margin called orders quantity changed from 70M+ to 90M+. and bitCNY become in premium again.

will it be better to set feed price = max(market price*MSSR, black swan protection price)?
it's just another UI bug when you saw the quantity changed from 70M to 90M
And we don't need to change feed price to market price * MSSR, instead it should be the commiittee's authority to tune the MSSR from 10% to 1% or something else to reduce the premium,
but still need to give some premium offter others help eatern the margin call orders.

just urgent solution, possible to tune MSSR when things are stable and enough time to discuss/coordinate.

925
General Discussion / Re: how to revive bitCNY?
« on: November 28, 2018, 04:31:11 am »
positive feedback appear again.

margin called order eaten -> global settlement price come down-> feed price come down->more debt position margin called.

in several hours the margin called orders quantity changed from 70M+ to 90M+. and bitCNY become in premium again.

will it be better to set feed price = max(market price*MSSR, black swan protection price)?

926
General Discussion / Re: price feeding review
« on: November 28, 2018, 03:43:23 am »
I agree with @clockwork.
It seems to be an art to find a balance. Certainly we've learned alot from
BSIP42 even though some people in the community declare it a failure
already.

Maybe we can learn the lessons in such a way that it tells us how to use
a dynamic MCR once we have the backend fixed.

Sure...

My suggestion for dynamic adjustment once the backend is fixed is the following:


Set a range and centerpoint for MSSR..

Obviously, MSSR can't go below 100% so if we keep 110 as the "centerpoint", we allow witnesses to manipulate MSSR up to 120%.

This is our first, go to weapon when fighting a premium or discount.

If premium, we reduce MSSR down to 100 to reduce sell pressure and allow DEX price to climb and close premium

If discount, we increase up to 120 to increase bitUSD supply and close discount.

If we reach either of the limits and STILL in premium or discount, then and ONLY then do we start adjusting the MCR.

Again, let's keep something like 175 as a centerpoint and a range within which we can increase or decrease (say 150-200).

This means that if you keep your collateral above the max end of the range , you know you're safe making the adjustments predictable.

If we go beyond those ranges again, just leave it at those maxiumums or minimums. Behaviour will be the same as we used to have when it comes to premium or discount (sans adjustment) but will happen much less often and within a smaller range.

When "returning" from those maximums or minimums, we do it reversely... bring MCR back to centerpoint and then adjust MSSR afterwards (if still needed)

in most of the cases, in bitCNY market, there is little difference between MSSR=120% and MSSR=102%, as most of the margin call orders are filled at the price which is very close to market price, I don't think that adjusting MSSR will give impact to premium/discount.

927
General Discussion / Re: Another suggestion to improve bitAsset performance
« on: November 28, 2018, 03:36:39 am »
margin call orders price is higher than market price -  this is the consequence of BSIP42.

we need to consider the next step when bitCNY revive or even bitUSD revive.

in my view, one choice is to replace BSIP42 with the dynamic MCR solution, and feed price will be the real market price.

if feed price be the market price, I believe the margin call orders will always be eaten, only in very seldom scenario the margin call orders will stay there without being eaten.

is it really necessary to introduce more methods to solve the issues that will disappear and increase more complexity?


929
这个方案还是可以的。

抵押不中断,黑天鹅价可继续下调都有利于尽快恢复。至于“晚爆不如早爆”那也没有办法,也并非不可接受。

不过接下去的路线应该是让动态MCR方案来替代BSIP42了吧?那么BSIP42面临的强清问题就不存在了。

不过动态MCR也会有增大系统风险的问题,比如如果bitCNY需求增加导致MCR一路下调到1.2,那其实离黑天鹅也一步之遥啊。

把强清补偿和抵押率挂钩,比如把强清补偿设为(CR-base CR)*0.1, 令base CR = 1.25,这样当债仓抵押率为1.25时,补偿为0,抵押率为1.75时,补偿为5%,与MCR无关。

这样用经济手段来“打击”低抵押率,降低系统风险,如何?

从提高抵押率、降低风险的角度,有个思路是,有爆仓时,强清立即按爆仓价执行,不等24小时。相当于挂买单,不同的是,如果有低于爆仓的卖单,强清是越过卖单直接和爆仓成交的(和现在的强清一样)。这样,给那些有情怀想为系统降风险的人一个机会。

另外还有英文区clockworkgr提的建议:直接加抵押即可接管爆仓单,不用先抵押出来再买或者强清,这样要求的抵押会相对少一点,实际上相当于简化反复贴线抵押买的操作,有利于前期缓解风险,但也可能集聚更多风险到后期(顺便说下目标抵押率也是类似情况,前期爆的少容易接,到后期爆的多就接不过来了)。

有时我在想这些想法是不是都是一种反应过度? 因为要解决的问题其实都是BSIP42导致的喂价高于市场价很多带来的,如果后边采取动态MCR方案,喂价回归市场价,以bitCNY和bitUSD的市场深度和活跃度,爆仓单不被吃的情况应该是极少见的。

采取动态MCR方案,要不要给MCR设下限?1.25?1.35?那样的话应该依然会出现需求大时高溢价的情况,但似乎也没有办法。

极端情况下可能黑天鹅依然会出现,但是很显然如何处理黑天鹅至关重要,自杀式的全局清算是不行的,如果如本帖建议,系统在黑天鹅时接管喂价,保证喂价不低于黑天鹅价,那么系统尽快平稳恢复的几率更大。不失为可取之策。

没有完美,只有更好。


930
这个方案还是可以的。

抵押不中断,黑天鹅价可继续下调都有利于尽快恢复。至于“晚爆不如早爆”那也没有办法,也并非不可接受。

不过接下去的路线应该是让动态MCR方案来替代BSIP42了吧?那么BSIP42面临的强清问题就不存在了。

不过动态MCR也会有增大系统风险的问题,比如如果bitCNY需求增加导致MCR一路下调到1.2,那其实离黑天鹅也一步之遥啊。

把强清补偿和抵押率挂钩,比如把强清补偿设为(CR-base CR)*0.1, 令base CR = 1.25,这样当债仓抵押率为1.25时,补偿为0,抵押率为1.75时,补偿为5%,与MCR无关。

这样用经济手段来“打击”低抵押率,降低系统风险,如何?


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