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Messages - Empirical1.2

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136
There will be plenty of people willing to short BitLISK at even a 1/4 of what it's trading for on Yobit.

Can/t we create BitLISK and only enable forced settlement once LISK is properly trading?

But what would we use for price feeds in this case?

If there's no forced settlement, I don't think we need price feeds right now because the market will know price feeds & forced settlement are coming and trade accordingly.  Then once it's released we use price feeds from whichever main exchange/s are trading it.

Alternatively you could use the YoBit IOU LISK price as the price feed for now & add other exchanges as real LISK begins being traded though I doubt there will be much LISK demand at YoBit prices.


137
There will be plenty of people willing to short BitLISK at even a 1/4 of what it's trading for on Yobit.

Can/t we create BitLISK and only enable forced settlement once LISK is properly trading?

138
General Discussion / Re: Does anyone has an opinion to Lisk?
« on: April 07, 2016, 06:15:03 pm »
LISK IOU prices on YoBit are hysterical  :)  https://yobit.net/en/trade/LISK/BTC


139
Only 0.47% of STEEM is liquid in individual accounts, this is going to make the pump on CMC legend... wait-for-it... dary!


I hope the price feeds to CMC will be running and STEEM will be exclusive to BitShares DEX  ;)

That's an impressively small amount, possibly too small. CMC has been pretty lenient with vesting balances in the past, (XRP founder shares & BTS merger shares for example) but with such a high amount vesting, it's quite possible CMC/others will only count the liquid, currently tradeable 0.47% towards the valuation.

140
General Discussion / Re: Rimbit dafuq?
« on: April 07, 2016, 02:49:52 pm »
It shouldn't be long now, I'm almost there. Xeroc and hcf27 are also helping.

Cool. Good luck. I think it could be very popular.

141
Is Tether.USD the same as or related to Tether (USDT) http://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tether/ ?

142
I think the goal with a POS minting reward such as Vesting in STEEM's case is mostly to reduce available supply which should be price positive but without negatively effecting demand, as that would defeat the purpose and potentially be price negative overall. 

Which is why the general feedback to BM's orginal thread was that circa 30% dilution applied to speculators would be too high.
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,20886.msg270273.html#msg270273

With STEEM, I think I've seen it mentioned that there is >100% dilution applied to non vesters, or 0.27% a day which is too hard to overcome in most market conditions so it will severely limit trading/speculative/short term investment demand.

So while STEEM has maximized the available supply reduction possible with the concept, it's done at the expense of reducing demand from a sizeable part of the market probably too the point of being price negative overall. (You can see what happens when a coin gets added to a large exchange to see what happens to price & valuation when it increases it's market/pool of potential speculators and investors, by reducing trading/speculative/short term investment demand the converse will be true. )

143
General Discussion / Re: Rimbit dafuq?
« on: April 07, 2016, 11:43:41 am »
This is why for the top 20 SmartCoin index you need to consider volume too imo.

That's why I first consider the MC, because it's the only thing you can't fake. The only way to manipulate the MC is by pouring your money in the coin ;p

A lot of cryptos claim to have X supply on the market but you can't be sure they really distributed them, so their market cap is inflated but this is often obvious by their much lower volume.

144
I personally would be outraged if my called my stockbroker and ordered 1000 shares of Company A, and found out six weeks later that my stock broker had voted my 1000 shares at Company A's annual meeting to elect a Board which starved Company A of development funds. Although my 1000 shares are stored by the stockbroker, rather than sent to my custody, in order to facilitate trading, they have no right to vote those shares as if they were owned by the broker.

AFAIK your broker is allowed too & often will vote as they see fit with your shares unless you've specifically instructed them to do otherwise. (Edit: After further reading I see brokers are only able to vote on 'routine matters' which are pretty limited)

Given that the general Chinese sentiment seems to be in favour of limited development, Yunbi are most likely voting in line with majority customer sentiment. (To do otherwise would be negative for their business.)

Personally I don't mind exchanges voting as it should give people another reason to move their BTS to the DEX. I mean the concentration of BTS on exchanges and the ability of those exchanges to vote makes BTS look as bad as BTC mining pools in terms of centralization & our exposure to them makes the USP of the DEX itself much weaker. This is why I'm also in favour of SmartCoin yield because even if people engage in yield harvesting they will be removing their BTS from centralized exchanges to do so.

145

SBD is an entirely different beast than BitAssets.  There is no shorting, no margin calls, and users cannot create it.

3. Interest on SBD is paid by creating new SBD from thin air and might never result in creation of STEEM

There are other reasons why Steem could not be built on BitShares:

1. It would need to be a separate asset due to its inflation scheme
2. bitshares is unable or unwilling to fund the development of something so speculative
3. bitshares is better served being an exchange and integrating with STEEM via a side chain

....

Thanks, I know you mentioned it wasn't really possible on BTS previously and I appreciate the detailed explanation.

While SBD is vastly different, it is still potentially a BitUSD competitor. There are no/low TX fees on BTS so I think we would derive little benefit from being a sidechain but the USD that bootstraps first or becomes really popular will make the backing asset very valuable.


Interesting...

Some additional (long) thoughts on the project:

The SBD (which seems to be a USD pegged asset with a possible interest rate bonus on top) is interesting...

Now the question is will bytemaster's strategy work, or will it cause the Bitcoin community to treat this DAC like a pariah and stubbornly refuse to use it while yelling out words like "instamine." I can't wait to find out.

Is this already mostly coded?

Everything I described in my post about STEEM was from my review of the existing code in GitHub. So, yes.

If so can it be forked onto BTS or a separate DAC with an allocation strategy that greatly favours BTS holders?

The BTS SuperDAC was created with the intention of forking competitors where possible/valuable and this seems like such a scenario given it's based on BTS compatible code?

I was going to say yes, but apparently as bytemaster mentioned previously in the thread, STEEM is released under a non-free license. Regardless of licensing issues, let me procede with why it may not make sense to bring SBD with interest into BitShares, which I believe is what you are mostly concerned about.

The problem with the SBD asset is that it forces all STEEM holders to back it, which means a risk of significant STEEM inflation to cover the price stability of SBD. We would not want to force all BTS holders to back an SBD equivalent on BitShares. Furthermore, users cannot create as much SBD as they wish on STEEM (which I think is good because that limits the liability of STEEM holders). That works fine for its intended purpose as rewards for content creator and curators, but I would say for something like BitUSD, our existing mechanism of borrowing with collateral makes more sense.

Thanks for the reply.

Ignoring the licensing issue for the time being. Could we potentially create something resembling a STEEM2 asset on BTS that is sharedropped 80% onto BTS shareholders (&/or pay royalties to BTS) with a corresponding SBD? It would have all the properties of STEEM & would be backing SBD2 on BTS but it would have been mostly sharedropped onto BTS shareholders.

My only thinking is shareholders will be unhappy about a competing USD created by CNX even though BM has justified his position and I also think STEEM's launch and initial distribution will be unpopular so combined with BTS's size, network effect, community & existing infrastructure  we may be able to outcompete it & existing BTS sharheholders will gain that value.

146
Has a sharedrop (on bts) been discussed before?

Not yet to my knowledge.

I think it may be advisable to share-drop on BTS though because it seems to be a method for bootstrapping a competiting BitUSD which is what shareholders feared about VOTE DAC and why many agreed to the BTS merger.

Quote
There are many problems we need to resolve as a community:

1) We don't want to compete with ourselves and divide our network effect.
2) We don't want to confuse users with a million brands.
3) We want to have 1 BitUSD for everything rather than many different BitUSDs
5) I don't want to have divided loyalties... I cannot serve two masters.

My Proposal:

1) Drop all other BitShares brands.... rename BitShares X to just BitShares

There will still be other DACs based upon our toolkit  (Music, Gaming, DNS, etc) but those clones will not be dividing my loyalty because they have their own teams and are already known and operating independently of us.  Those who have joined those DACs can attempt to grow them how they see fit and BitShares will be competing with them where we can.

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,10148.0.html

I'm not sure yet, but it also seems like STEEM may be using dilution to fund an interest rate bonus...

The SBD (which seems to be a USD pegged asset with a possible interest rate bonus on top) is interesting.

Though unlikely, it's possibly similar to a concept I've been pushing to benefit BitUSD, https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21597.0.html which BM hasn't ackowledged in the forum and only a few months ago believed wouldn't work.

That's $365 000 a year of dilution.  That could be  +5% on $7 500 000 worth of BitUSD.
Even with a lot of yield harvesting that would rapidly make BTS the undisputed Crypto USD market leader.
Providing yield on USD doesn't work because of yield harvesting, people would create USD and sit on it until the rate of return approached 0.

I don't know what the SBD liquidity subsidies are but they could also be the best combo from ideas formulated from the BitUSD liquidity thread, https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21544.195.html

So SBD is potentially a competing BitUSD using concepts that could have helped bootstrap BitUSD or a USD on BTS.

So I don't think STEEM will necessarily be popular with BTS shareholders & given that they've intentionally violated a lot of the crypto communities cultural expectations they're unlikely to be popular with them either.

http://bytemaster.github.io/article/2016/03/27/How-to-Launch-a-Crypto-Currency-Legally-while-Raising-Funds/

Quote
Perhaps the Bitcoin Communities cultural regulations are a blessing in disguise. By intentionally violating every one of their expectations you can minimize your token’s value while still legally mining a token for minimal cost.

We have secured ~80% of the initial STEEM via mining.  Our plan is to keep 20%, sell 20% to raise money, and give away 40% to attract users / referrers.

We''ll have to wait to learn more but I think STEEM/SBD could be a BitUSD competitor and we should potentially be looking at options, forking/other to compete with it.

So your saying that Steem is a direct competitor with BTS?

This is very confusing... Is this CNX's new project/chain that we paid to prevent during the merger?  Little did we know that we were actually funding the competition of BTS.

Now do we dump BTS for Steem or does Steem work with BTS?  It doesn't sound like it will be sharedrop.

IMO, it seems SBD is a direct competitor with BitUSD and STEEM is a competitor with BTS in much the same way VOTE was. (In the case of VOTE there was an additional voting element provided by Adam/FMV in this case there's potentially an additional social media platform element provided by Ned.)

Edit: In terms of investing. You may be forced to hedge though my opinion is the way they've chosen to launch STEEM may severely limit its potential so we should definitely look at forking/incorporating the good elements into BTS as the market may attribute much more value to them on BTS.

Edit 2: Looks like this has been moved to random discussion...

147
Has a sharedrop (on bts) been discussed before?

Not yet to my knowledge.

I think it may be advisable to share-drop on BTS though because it seems to be a method for bootstrapping a competiting BitUSD which is what shareholders feared about VOTE DAC and why many agreed to the BTS merger.

Quote
There are many problems we need to resolve as a community:

1) We don't want to compete with ourselves and divide our network effect.
2) We don't want to confuse users with a million brands.
3) We want to have 1 BitUSD for everything rather than many different BitUSDs
5) I don't want to have divided loyalties... I cannot serve two masters.

My Proposal:

1) Drop all other BitShares brands.... rename BitShares X to just BitShares

There will still be other DACs based upon our toolkit  (Music, Gaming, DNS, etc) but those clones will not be dividing my loyalty because they have their own teams and are already known and operating independently of us.  Those who have joined those DACs can attempt to grow them how they see fit and BitShares will be competing with them where we can.

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,10148.0.html

I'm not sure yet, but it also seems like STEEM may be using dilution to fund an interest rate bonus...

The SBD (which seems to be a USD pegged asset with a possible interest rate bonus on top) is interesting.

Though unlikely, it's possibly similar to a concept I've been pushing to benefit BitUSD, https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21597.0.html which BM hasn't ackowledged in the forum and only a few months ago believed wouldn't work.

That's $365 000 a year of dilution.  That could be  +5% on $7 500 000 worth of BitUSD.
Even with a lot of yield harvesting that would rapidly make BTS the undisputed Crypto USD market leader.
Providing yield on USD doesn't work because of yield harvesting, people would create USD and sit on it until the rate of return approached 0.

I don't know what the SBD liquidity subsidies are but they could also be the best combo from ideas formulated from the BitUSD liquidity thread, https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21544.195.html

So SBD is potentially a competing BitUSD using concepts that could have helped bootstrap BitUSD or a USD on BTS.

So I don't think STEEM will necessarily be popular with BTS shareholders & given that they've intentionally violated a lot of the crypto communities cultural expectations they're unlikely to be popular with them either.

http://bytemaster.github.io/article/2016/03/27/How-to-Launch-a-Crypto-Currency-Legally-while-Raising-Funds/

Quote
Perhaps the Bitcoin Communities cultural regulations are a blessing in disguise. By intentionally violating every one of their expectations you can minimize your token’s value while still legally mining a token for minimal cost.

We have secured ~80% of the initial STEEM via mining.  Our plan is to keep 20%, sell 20% to raise money, and give away 40% to attract users / referrers.

We''ll have to wait to learn more but I think STEEM/SBD could be a BitUSD competitor and we should potentially be looking at options, forking/other to compete with it.




148
Interesting...

Some additional (long) thoughts on the project:

The SBD (which seems to be a USD pegged asset with a possible interest rate bonus on top) is interesting...

Now the question is will bytemaster's strategy work, or will it cause the Bitcoin community to treat this DAC like a pariah and stubbornly refuse to use it while yelling out words like "instamine." I can't wait to find out.

Is this already mostly coded?

If so can it be forked onto BTS or a separate DAC with an allocation strategy that greatly favours BTS holders?

The BTS SuperDAC was created with the intention of forking competitors where possible/valuable and this seems like such a scenario given it's based on BTS compatible code?

BTS is already a valuable Top 10 DAC with a large networked community  & an understanding of Graphene, while STEEM has been launched in a way that intentionally violated most crypto cultural regulations so it's value and ability to gain traction will be minimized.



149
If people can't tell I find this whole thing pretty obnoxious.

I think the Chinese have a point.  Looks at the scape's video.  How many BTS did they get for that?  1600 views?  I thought it was a waste to begin with, but a real video that would be effective would have been work and not fun. Those guys milked that for a looong time. The non-technical scape was part of the reason I left. The other one was ended up being extremely valuable to the BTS ecosystem.

In the current form, I would never wish to work for the blockchain.  At one point I thought it was a cool idea.  Very sci-fi.  Neat stuff.  Now, I realize that the more you put your own well being in the hands of others, the more likely you are to just get screwed.  This is even more true, the more talented you are. I would not touch working for the BTS blockchain unless I absolutely had to do it. Far too many unknowns and whims of people controlling things.

The reason I was pulled into this thread is because someone suggested that a developer should just buy their stake, implement a feature and Allah willing they'd end up selling their stake for more. I'd love to see someone actually come up with numbers on how that is to work. It means the developer has enough money to gamble on BTS and then have enough to live off until they can cash back out. This only works assuming the gamble has a good chance of paying off.  What happens if BTS drops 40% during that time but then goes up 30% after the developers work is released?  How much money vs % of increase is required for this to be reasonable given what an average person would be willing to invest. To suggest this is an alternative model for development is stupid.  It assumes future developers must already be wealthy. Unlikely. 

I have never been against people judging the proposals on their individual merits.  I have never been against people being against dilution in general. I have been against this blind marching forward with nothing more than hope, while other projects are actually implementing new features.  I personally learned it was a big mistake putting much faith in Bytemaster's decision making. That doesn't impact my views on this.  To the contrary - I WANT to see BTS grow up and not be dependent on him. Shutting down all dilution/payment is not the way to do this.  It is just a recipe to not be competitive.

there is actually strong emotion of anti-dilution in China community, yunbi voted as requested by China community, however, it is not right to say that China stakeholders want to stop development.

anyway, we built the worker proposal mechanism means stakeholders are not supposed to support any development, they will vote based on their judgment. so developers need to explain the necessity and fair price of their work.

yes, as you had said, talented developers do not like to explain, anyway, maybe other people can explain instead of them? under the worker proposal system voters definitely need to understand they are paying for useful and effective job.

for example, AFAIK, most of China stakeholders do not think they need the BSIP10 feature, how they feel when they are aware they need to pay 50k/day for this?

I was also told by one Chinese programmer, "in my view ***'s work make sense, however the quality need to be improved."

please do not be scared by what yunbi did, 4 worker are still there and I think it's not easy to vote them out. and new workers still have chance to be voted in if enough voters are convinced.

I think Graphene is already pretty solid and right now the focus should be, getting a tight peg on key SmartCoins (subsidized liquidity) and make them attractive to hold (BitUSD Yield)

BitCrab what do you think the general sentiment among the Chinese community is on subsidizing liquidity and yield?

a) BitAsset Liquidity https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21544.0.html

b) BitAsset Yield   https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21597.0.html


STEEM is potentially a BitUSD competitor that may have both subsidized liquidity and yield/interest.

The SBD (which seems to be a USD pegged asset with a possible interest rate bonus on top) is interesting. There is a DEX on the network with just a single market STEEM/SBD (plus there are subsidies to liquidity providers which is great addition)

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,22125.0.html

I believe diluting for interest/yield in particular is self-funding and will create demand for BitUSD (BTS) and raise the price of BTS from the outset. If we don't do it, competitors will bootstrap their USD product first. Are some at least in favour of diluting for liquidity &/or yield?

150


Perhaps something like a decentralized alternative to threaded discussion forums, e.g. Reddit self posts (though limited to STEEMIT_MAX_COMMENT_DEPTH == 6 nested comments, which I guess is a reasonable number),
except with the distinguishing feature of economic rewards for good comments ("What do you mean internet karma points don't have to be worthless?" ;)).
Though perhaps that could backfire as well: redditors take karma too seriously as it is even though it currently provide no economic value whatsoever. But it would be fun to see how economic incentives modify social behavior online.


From Ned Scott's Linked in

Quote
Steemit is a social media platform where everyone gets paid for creating and curating content.

Synereo is a similar concept  http://www.synereo.com/

Quote
Synereo is a fully decentralized and distributed social platform owned by the people who use it.
Your attention is scarce, precious and powerful.It’s time for it to work for you.

Synereo is vastly different and was evaluated along with other competitors prior to building Steem.

The SBD (which seems to be a USD pegged asset with a possible interest rate bonus on top) is interesting. There is a DEX on the network with just a single market STEEM/SBD (plus there are subsidies to liquidity providers which is great addition), but yet it seems pretty clear that SBD is not BitUSD/Smartcoins. Specifically, there is no SBD borrow with collateral mechanism available. It is possible to convert SBD to STEEM but the blockchain just destroys the SBD and prints enough new STEEM to satisfy the conversion at an exchange rate (after a 7 day delay) at the given median price feed provided by the witnesses. Thus, I think it is safe to say that all STEEM holders are effectively forced to take the "short position" against the SBD. By holding STEEM they are betting that its price should outperform the USD plus blockchain-declared interest rate.

Well you may have a BitUSD with an interest rate bonus and a mechanism for simple conversions which is exactly what I've been pushing for with my BitUSD Yield & Simple SmartCoin threads.  I can also see the value of using a social media platform for creating network effect & bootstrapping said USD.  So I think it has some potential.

Tipping with BitUSD will be huge in terms of the network effect it could help generate.

We have a product that BTC doesn't have, Currency Stable Smartcoins. (Still need more liquidity) We just need to find a way to showcase them to the hundreds of thousands of people that could benefit them. Cue tipping and cue social media.

The main potential issue at this stage is the method of launch & how it will be received which I've already given my opinion on earlier. (You may be thinking again that given it's a USD product and a separate platform you may be able to leapfrog the crypto community somewhat so their opinion is moot, but I'm fairly confident that's not the case.) I'm also not sure this couldn't be replicated on BTS in some way.

Having said that I can obviously see it has value, when will it be on an exchange? Have you considered creating an IOU for some of it on BTS for the time being?



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