Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Empirical1.2

Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ... 92
61
I think if you want to stick to the "best" 20 crypto's you should use the first 20 with the biggest volume NOT the 20 with the  biggest marketcap.... because we will see many shitcoins on the list very often....
I support this point. Market cap is a bad measure of performance. Issue trillions of shit coins and get #1 market cap. Look at ripple for example. Trade volume is the only good way to evaluate crypto token performance.
trade volume is also easily faked

It depends what exchanges you reference I guess. You can't fake volume very easily/for very long when you're paying 0.2% per trade can you?

(Coinmarketcap for example excludes the BTC exchanges with no fees from their calculations http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets )


You can't fake volume very easily/for very long when you're paying 0.2% per trade can you?

except you are the exchange owner... so the fees come back to you...

That's why I first consider the MC, because it's the only thing you can't fake. The only way to manipulate the MC is by pouring your money in the coin ;p

A lot of cryptos claim to have X supply on the market but you can't be sure they really distributed them, so their market cap is inflated but this is often obvious by their much lower volume.

(As an extreme example, have an ICO for 100 million coins, raise 100 BTC but 99.9 BTC actually came anonymously from you. Now there's only 100 000 coins on the market you don't own. Building their price up to $1 a coin would be fairly cheap and now your DAC/Coin would be valued at $100 million, but it would be clear your market cap is inflated because of the low volume.)

See any atm that shouldn't be included in a credible BIT10 ETF?  :P

62
We are working on the implementation. First, we need to get a clear head about the next steps and upgrades for the BitShares System. I am currently updating the main site and would like to introduce 4 for step branding plan for BitShares.

Let us update the  https://bitshares.org/roadmap.html  and introduce these four levels.

The Foundation Release can be done with the integration of the Stealh features to BitShares. We at BitShares Munich are working on Stealth and will solve the current hosting problems soon. I recommend we will launch Stealth with the start of the BitShares Foundation Release. More features will be developed from there.

1. BitShares Foundation Release
Stealth integration - bug fixes

2. BitShares Enterprise Release
Bond Market - bug fixes

3. BitShares Metropolis Release
Tbd
 
4. BitShares Infinity Release
Tbd


What do you think?

 +5% Looks good.

It would be nice if we could get some SmartCoin liquidity measure approved/added/trialled for one of the SmartCoin markets as one of the next steps too. It seems to be at a fairly advanced stage already... https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21544.225.html

63
1.  When you guarantee liquidity at the expense of shorts and at 1-1, this adds a significant burden to shorts that they will price in via an additional premium. By lowering the forced settlement number as well as the amount that can be forced settled you reduce this burden and therefore not only bring the price close to the peg (which is favourable) but also reduce the risk premium shorts need to charge & thus create a tighter peg overall.

Your wording implies that forced settlement is in some form damaging to shorters. That is wrong. Settlement happens at the fair price and does not change the NAV of either involved party. The shorter can take the remaining collateral and the proceeds from selling the originally shorted smartcoins and immediate extend his short position, should he want to stay short. The only "damage" here is the required fee, which is negligible (less than 1 US-cent I believe).

In addition to lowering forced settlement, I am personally also in favour of other measures that reduce the burden on shorts so that their risk premium is reduced thus creating a tighter peg overall.

The "burden" on shorts is an inherent factor in *every* short position. The reward for that position is the leverage effect, which works for the shorter in a BTS bull market. Actually, in BitShares the shorts are relatively well protected. In real-world shorts you can literally lose everything, not just your collateral.

Increasing the settlement offset to 1% would reduce the risk premium by 1%, right? How far above the feed are smartcoins trading currently? Would 1% really make a significant difference wrt the tightness of the peg?

Forced settlement forces the short to make a trade when they don't want to. (I would hate if my shorts on Poloniex could be closed out at any time by longs forced settling.) 

Lets say the trade was just between you and me.

I short BitBTC because I believe this is a good time to short. Yay, turns out I was right and the general trend is clearly moving in my favour due to news/other!  If you wanted to me to cover you'd have to sell your BitBTC at a discount but instead you force settle me at 1-1. 

- It's statistically more likely you'll force settle when the market is moving in my favour and against you.
- It puts me in a position where I have to actively manage my short position more because I may be force settled unexpectedly.
- I'll  lose any potential gains for the period I'm out of the market
- I have to repay fees again
- I possibly have to pay a higher premium to re-enter my position if the market is clearly trending against the longs. (Which might be why they chose to force settle.) 

By reducing forced settlement or even charging a reasonable forced settlement fee, traders who are long can't used forced settlement as a trading tool/advantage and will have to find a willing buyer as opposed to a forced buyer. This levelling of the playing field removes/reduces the negative factors the short would have to price in thereby hopefully lowering the spread by far more than the 1% offset.

Being guaranteed 98/99% is still very attractive for genuine longs. especially if the premium/spread to enter the position has lowered as a result. 

Also how I 'think' potential manipulation could work...

I go long X BitBTC/SmartCoin. I request force settlement for 3 am the following morning.  The spread on BTS on exchanges is usually 0.4-1.5%. In 24 hours at the thinly traded force settlement time I make tiny BTS sells just so that the traded price referenced is in my favour by 0.5-1.5% at the shorts expense. (Annualized that's a significant edge that would have to be priced in) Depending on depth and size of settlement it may be in my interest to push the BTS price at settlement time in my favour more. (Reducing forced settlement or charging a hefty fee reduces the potential for for forced settlement trading/manipulation too.)

64
I suggest we all take a step back and take 15 minutes to (re-)read https://bitshares.org/technology/price-stable-cryptocurrencies/ .

What I take from that
  • The settlement price guarantees price stability to holders of BitAssets. This guarantee defines the peg.
  • Shorters are supposed to sell their shorted BitAssets at a premium to cover their risk.
  • BitAssets are expected to trade at a premium, due to the inherent risk of shorters. The premium is expected to be higher in a BTS bear market.
  • The premium is supposed to encourage merchants to accept BitAssets.
  • The premium does not play a significant role to traders or other users of BitAssets.

My conclusions
  • BitAssets are working right now exactly in the way they are supposed to be working.
  • The premium we are seeing in BitAsset markets is due to the BTS bear market. The settlement price is not the cause of this. (Coincidentally, BitCrab's attacks on forced settlement always seem to happen in a bear market.)
  • When (if) the BTS price is rising again, the premium will automatically reduce to something close to zero. (IIRC, two months ago there was actually a negative premium on the markets, where some people bought below the feed and used forced settlement to make a profit.)
  • The premium is good to have, for shorters, merchants and customers. It is the natural market mechanism to keep everyone's interests balanced.
  • We want bitCNY to be pegged to CNY. By changing the settlement offset to 1% we are moving the "guarantee", which in turn means that bitCNY will be pegged to .99 CNY. This is an undesired side effect.

Furthermore, every piece of documentation I have seen tells BitAsset buyers that they can always exchange their BitAssets for an equivalent amount of BTS. The word "guarantee" is used in several places in that context. Do we really want to unilaterally declare that guarantee void, thereby destroying all credibility of the very concept of BitAssets?

From all of this follows that
  • the proposed change is not necessary - it is the function of the premium to encourage shorters, not the function of the settlement offset
  • the proposed change does not have the desired effect - the reason for the premium and the risks of the shorters is the BTS bear market, not the settlement offset
  • the proposed change is extremely harmful to our ecosystem, due to its side effects - it redefines 1 bitCNY to be worth 0.99 CNY and destroys our credibility, because we will be breaking our own guarantees.

@pc you make some good points and are clearly passionate about your position.

Your first argument is that adjusting BitCNY parameters would represent the breaking of an implied guarantee. I & I think most would disagree, SmartCoins are still in the nascent stages of design/adoption/parameter tweaking and are subject to change if agreed by shareholders. (They have already undergone major and controversial changes such as the removal of yield and the introduction of forced settlement itself.)

Your second argument is that SmartCoins are functioning well and the change is not desirable anyway.

While I believe you are correct that part of the premium at any time is related to the BTS market, bear/bull the 100% forced settlement feature also plays a role.

1.  When you guarantee liquidity at the expense of shorts and at 1-1, this adds a significant burden to shorts that they will price in via an additional premium. By lowering the forced settlement number as well as the amount that can be forced settled you reduce this burden and therefore not only bring the price close to the peg (which is favourable) but also reduce the risk premium shorts need to charge & thus create a tighter peg overall.

1. What about lowering the request settlement to 99%?
It should lower the premium and it's fair that there should be a cost associated with accessing liquidity at the expense of shorters.
Hopefully market makers will step in the majority of the time but the ability to get $0.99 on the dollar in 24 hours regardless of market conditions would still be very appealing to longs and merchants imo.


2. The closer forced settlement is to 1-1 the higher the potential for forced settlement manipulation which has already been an issue in the past and creates an additional risk premium too.

Does the BitShares price feed reference last traded prices at weighted exchanges or does it average last traded prices over a certain amount of time?

What I mean is there is that there is usually a 1-2% spread between buy and sell prices for BTS on BTC38 and Polo.

If you are force settling and you know it will reference last traded prices at a specific time then it would be in your interest to make tiny sell trades so that the last traded price is in your favour by 1-2%. It your force settle is going through at a thinly traded time it may also be in your interest & very cheap to move the price by another 1-2%.
That would assume that you know when witnesses publish a price and how many witnesses publish it ..
This could be fixed by tracking trades over time or running a weighted average over time but that involves alot of work to upgrade the feed script into a time-sensitive feed script.
Fortunately, this time-sensivity is also achieved by different witnesses running their scripts at different time instants.

We may consider replacing the last price with the "(highest bid + lowest ask)/ 2" that would make it a little more "fair"

Cool, yeah I'm just wondering if the forced settlement at 100% can currently be exploited.

I think your other suggestion of introducing a 1-2% forced settlement fee could also help address that if it was a potential issue...

- Settlement can be discouraged by asking for a percentage fee (1-2%) (this will move the peg AROUND parity. Flat fee for settlement can also be increase which has some negative effects on pred. markets

3. Merchants - I believe merchants are most interested in the size of the potential market of users as well as the speed, simplicity and cost of fiat conversion via something similar to BitPay.

Without a tightly pegged, liquid SmartCoin there will be no users and no attraction for merchants to serve that market. (So it's not chicken and egg, users come first)  Second is middlemen who can convert from SmartCoins to fiat. Transwiser provides this service for BitCNY and they believe they can do it better with a lower forced settlement so it should actually improve merchant adoption from that perspective too.

3. SmartCoins are not working well imo. They have gained low/no traction with the current parameters since being introduced 7 months ago. They have a tiny 2-4% of existing market share (never mind potential market share.)  and no/low merchant adoption and clearly need some improvements.

In addition to lowering forced settlement, I am personally also in favour of other measures that reduce the burden on shorts so that their risk premium is reduced thus creating a tighter peg overall.

I am also in favour of subsidizing liquidity & I am also in favour of subsidizing SmartCoin yield. https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21597.msg286581.html#msg286581

While clearly not optimally designed yet, SmartCoins have the potential to be absolutely huge and when you get the formula right & I believe they will really take off.

65
General Discussion / Re: The DAO price discussion thread.
« on: May 14, 2016, 01:40:24 am »
Fairly similar concept to how BTS works in some way it seems.

Proposals are based in part on what resources are available to work on them.
Resources are hired based on the availability of stable funding.
A constant battle over who controls the funding light switch means no one dares hire against any line item.
So the resources remain allocated elsewhere.

Voting is overrated.  I wouldn't want to ride on an aircraft controlled by voting passengers.
Give me a benevolent whale any day.
:)

'The DAO' seems to be doing very well in its fund-raising so far, so it seems the market has faith in something similar to the BTS voting model. I guess the real test will be to see how they do in practice.

http://coinjournal.net/dao-decentralized-fund-management-crowdsale/

Quote

The DAO Raises Over US$13 Million During First Three Days of Crowdsale

Similarly, in The DAO, there is no director and no board. Voting power is granted to holders of The DOA tokens who can vote to approve or decline proposals submitted. Voting rights are proportional to the amount of tokens held. The proposals submitted to The DAO by contractors, define how much or how little control over its operational responsibilities The DAO “outsources” to the contractors.

The DAO said it is looking for projects that provide a return on investment or benefit to the organization and its members, and which benefit the decentralized ecosystem as a whole.

The organization earns revenue generated by the products and services it helps fund. Profits are then distributed to participants based on transparent rules that are decided by the participants beforehand.

66
 +5% Very positive change that should improve BitCNY

1. What about lowering the request settlement to 99%?
It should lower the premium and it's fair that there should be a cost associated with accessing liquidity at the expense of shorters.

I think lowering forced settlement to 98/99% would be beneficial.

67
General Discussion / Re: Move Bitsharestalk to Steemit?
« on: May 10, 2016, 03:16:46 pm »
Steemit rewards contribution....of course bitsharestalk should move.

Unfortunately the time value of good contributors forum posts is far in excess of what it would ever make sense to financially reward. So it's not much of a USP.

You could have already observed this via Brownies for participation. While it initially attracts some interest it rapidly plateaus and doesn't add value or network effect to the underlying unit/platform/forum or incentivize good contributors. This is because there are plethora of factors that attract users to engage/identify/contribute content.

Imo due to launch/distribution and other factors such as the 'social + media' being really a core/fundamental weakness of the founders it's a poor, to put it mildly, foundation for this. What it does have going for it, is that talented developers like BM and others are probably going to be based there in the near term so your ideas have a greater chance of manifesting/contributing to developments which could positively affect your investment. (As I think it's a poor investment, I don't see the value in that personally, but others might.) 

So it's a really beautiful, self-reinforcing Darwinian selection process. No need to formally make such a decision.  It will sort itself out.

 +5%

With great respect, I really don't know how you can be so definitive about the prospects of value continuing to be available to contributors on the Steemit network. Surely the relationship between contribution and reward (let's not forget, rewards do not only come in the form of Steem) will be the result of complex growth/innovation dynamics. Nobody is guaranteeing anything. But we can work hard and hope can't we? No-one has cracked mass adoption.....social media is a great start. The naysayers evaluation is as valid as the next person's but the future is unknown to everyone. I find solace in the technology, the effort and those many that share a solidarity of effort and optimism.

 +5% you make a lot of good points including the fact that social media is potentially a great route to mass adoption.

Regards my personal evaluation, yeah it's pretty definitive, but it's a very fast moving industry so things can change. While the future is largely unknown, we do know >92% of tech start-ups fail within a couple of years, so as positive as anyone may be about any new venture, it's unnecessary to tie the fate of BTS via moving/merging to it at this nascent stage imo. I agree with Stan that it if it's superior, it doesn't need a formal decision/move and that it will occur naturally. 

68
General Discussion / Re: Move Bitsharestalk to Steemit?
« on: May 10, 2016, 02:21:07 pm »
Steemit rewards contribution....of course bitsharestalk should move.

Unfortunately the time value of good contributors forum posts is far in excess of what it would ever make sense to financially reward. So it's not much of a USP.

You could have already observed this via Brownies for participation. While it initially attracts some interest it rapidly plateaus and doesn't add value or network effect to the underlying unit/platform/forum or incentivize good contributors. This is because there are plethora of factors that attract users to engage/identify/contribute content.

Imo due to launch/distribution and other factors such as the 'social + media' being really a core/fundamental weakness of the founders it's a poor, to put it mildly, foundation for this. What it does have going for it, is that talented developers like BM and others are probably going to be based there in the near term so your ideas have a greater chance of manifesting/contributing to developments which could positively affect your investment. (As I think it's a poor investment, I don't see the value in that personally, but others might.) 

So it's a really beautiful, self-reinforcing Darwinian selection process. No need to formally make such a decision.  It will sort itself out.

 +5%

69
Poker on the blockchain won't work with Graphene's three second transaction times. Maybe for simple casino games it would be fine, but there are literally several dozen moments of decision making for every 10 person poker hand and if every decision has to be broadcast then it is going to take an excessive amount of time to play poker for players that are accustomed to fast play. I am going to guess that the developed poker game offered by Peerplays is also not going to compare in looks, feel and game play as say a well developed platform like Pokerstars - and this will be a big turn off similar to the many other online poker sites that have launched and failed over the years. Furthermore, poker sites spend considerable resources for customer service, Peerplays won't have this will it?

Speed would probably be the biggest issue of the ones you listed there but it may be acceptable for 2/3 player variants, which are some of the most popular these days anyway. Regulars may also just play more tables than usual so that they're making actions as frequently as they're used too/comfortable with. 

A US player accepting site with 1% rake should find a market regardless of other issues imo.

70
More over, as worlwide professional poker players would be highly interested in having a low rake and anonimity, I think that it would be easy to gather them and have help to spread the word.

I know, I wouldn't stop speaking about it on my poker social channels if it would be available.

Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

I imagine poker will be one of the hardest to do but yes I think the word will spread quickly.

PokerStars completely dominate market share but their high rake (up to 8% in some Spin & Go's I think ) + huge 2016 VIP cuts have made them super unpopular imo and regs would jump ship for 1% rake plus the fact that Peerplays would accept US players.

71
General Discussion / Re: Move Bitsharestalk to Steemit?
« on: May 09, 2016, 07:10:20 pm »
Wow, those stats are indeed rather dismal and the trend is clear as day.
The stats look far worse than the truth in this case, because May stats are for a partial month. Re-evaluating with that correction, data doesn't look nearly as bad.
Multiple all May stats by 4 to estimate the whole month...still not good.

There should be a large drop off over the last 3-5 months given recent events. I think it needs to find it's feet again and I would wait till after the end of the merger before writing BTS off or declare it dying/dead. It may be a sleeping elephant. (Once it's unburdened of nearly 50 BTC a week in costs, that are adding low/no benefit.)

Moving/merging BTS with possible competitor type discussions will bring down BTS value but not in a way that transfers value elsewhere. We may also find some key players finding their way back to it once it's unburdened and more development funding can be supported. So at this stage there's no need to tie the fate of BTS's success to that of a new kid on the block which may run into issues of its own and currently has wafer thin buy support.

 

72
General Discussion / Re: Move Bitsharestalk to Steemit?
« on: May 08, 2016, 10:06:19 pm »
BitShares is a great platform with a great community that is only 5 months away from ending a hugely expensive merger.

Trying to be polite and not criticize it too much, but at this nascent stage I would say Steem probably shouldn't even have a third party project place on this forum.

Good luck to those taking part but please give it a few months as you risk dragging down a great project like BTS unnecessarily if that project ends up failing. (9/10 new businesses do)

I hope this gets moved to random discussion as we don't need a Steem/BTS discussion at this stage and/or give a non share-dropped platform unnecessary exposure.

Haven't you repeatedly said that you sold off all of your non-vesting stake in BitShares long ago? I have come to suspect the motivation behind your comments.

Yes correct, nearly all of my BTS is vesting. ( Though I'm actually in favour of ending the merger early and losing that BTS because I believe it would be in the best interests of BTS.) I've also said once we get to the end of this awful merger I believe BTS could go from strength and to strength & will probably be accumulating a much larger position closer to that stage.

However I wish you guys with interest in other projects luck, but I'm personally not a fan of having them promoted in the general BTS discussion area. BTS and this forum has been built up over a few years, it's a great asset as is the platform. Perhaps if Steem gains some traction over the next 6-12 months some synergistic relationships may be warranted.

However atm it's the equivalent of suggesting moving Bitcointalk.org over to Banx/XRP/ (Some other fairly centralized/new/small possibly competing blockchain forum.)


73
General Discussion / Re: Move Bitsharestalk to Steemit?
« on: May 08, 2016, 09:15:11 pm »
BitShares is a great platform with a great community that is only 5 months away from ending a hugely expensive merger.

Trying to be polite and not criticize it too much, but at this nascent stage I would say Steem probably shouldn't even have a third party project place on this forum.

Good luck to those taking part but please give it a few months as you risk dragging down a great project like BTS unnecessarily if that project ends up failing. (9/10 new businesses do)

I hope this gets moved to random discussion as we don't need a Steem/BTS discussion at this stage and/or give a non share-dropped platform unnecessary exposure.

74
It's way more profitable to play 1 more table than lose your time trying to collude with someone.

 +5%, randomized seating helps a lot though too.

As a big chunk (very big chunk) of the money a professional poker player win is lost in the rake (around 5% on each pot), the first effective decentralised poker room with a low rake (1%)
could potentially be a huuuuge success and bring lots of money on the plateform.
I know I wouldn't hesitate to play decentralised poker if it allows me to double my annual winnings thanks to a low rake !

 +5% 1% rake will be huge.

75
However, our randomized player matching algorithm is one of the solutions we are working on to greatly eliminate the possibility of collusion in multiplayer buy-in tables for games like Texas hold'em. We will be discussing this more publicly in the months ahead.

 +5% effective randomized seating greatly reduces the possibility & impact of collusion.

What rake do you envisage being able to charge and when do you hope to the games will be available?


Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ... 92