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Messages - JonnyB

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226
Another solution would fit nicely would be that all worker proposals are paid in BitUSD but this would require a hard fork.
That's not true. I proposed on several occasions to create a new multisig account (owned by the committee) that actually creates the workers for people looking to work for BitShares, gets the BTS and borrows bitUSD at ratio 3x or more) to pay them to the "employee" ...
All we need to do is to agree on this process since the shareholder needs to pay 3x - MORE for the worker in BTS terms to fund the collateral.

I'm glad you agree this would be a suitable alternative. We should look to develop this idea further.
When I said it would require a hard fork I meant for it to be done in a decentralised way. 
Yes the committee-account could pay BitUSD to workers that mirrors the pay that they receive for their own worker proposals. (but this isn't very elegant)
The ultimate solution would be if all workers were paid in Bitusd that was created autonomously using the funds in the reserve pool as backing. (this would need a hard fork)



227
I am still yet to hear any convincing reason why this proposal could have a negative effect on bitshares.
Is there a consensus among the committee that demand for BitUSD is not the issue, it is the supply of BitUSD that is the issue?
If not from a worker proposal where does the committee suggest this supply should come from?

Another solution would fit nicely would be that all worker proposals are paid in BitUSD but this would require a hard fork.

@xeroc @bitcrab @Bhuz  @clayop @bitcube @abit @dele-puppy @BunkerChain Labs @ebit @Chris4210 @Harvey-xts

228
General Discussion / Re: poll for bitUSD parameter optimization
« on: August 04, 2016, 06:14:50 am »
My issue with this proposal is that it is actually 2 separate proposals.

1.) change force settlement by 1%
2.)  reduce max hourly settle volume to 0.5%

Do not bundle them together as one proposal please.

229
Ok, so we donĀ“t have enough people who would like to sell their BitUSD?

How will our situation change if:
- 200 BTC flow into BitShares every day, and will be converted into BitUSD
-  50% of the new BitUSD will be sold to on the market because they want to cash out

If the BitUSD cannot be sold against USD, the BitUSD has to be settle and the BTS has to be sold to get the equivalent amount in USD back.

We will have that situation in a few weeks after the launch of BlockPay. Any BitUSD buyers?

This sounds incredible if true.
When you say converted into BitUSD what do you mean ?
If you mean use the BTC to buy BitUSD you won't be able to as nobody will sell you that amount of BitUSD  without huge mark ups.
If you mean selling the 200btc for BTS then creating the BitUSD and then selling it  you will have money tied up in collateral for the BitUSD you just sold.

230
Topic starter suggests to provide liquidity with brute force, by taking all bids above the feed price on regular basis. Of course, MM account will be at loss this way, and traders will game it. Imo, it is ok to use reserve for market making, but strategy must be better than this. There should be a plan for issuing AND liquidating bitAsset. And liquidity should be provided both ways, for buyers and for sellers.

Sellers always have 100% liquidity, they can always sell at the peg, this what forced settlement is. We only need to provide liquidity for buyers.

long time no post by me, real life took off in a good way so I couldn't keep up with crypto world -  but what johnnybitcoin is saying is what I have been saying for 2+ years about bitshares 2.0. There is a bitasset buyer of laser resort (settlement), but there is no bitasset seller of last resort. In bitasset supply and demand terms, the system properly destroys bitassets when there is an oversupply (settlement), but there is no mechanism to have the system create bitassets when there is an undersupply. Supply is created by speculators, which causes a chicken-or-the-egg problem: speculators won't create supply in a market with low liquidity for fear of being trapped with no seller of last resort, so a low liquidity market remains low liquidity.

Using reserves/worker as a buy wall gives BTS the missing feature of creation of bitassets when demand exceeds supply (and the market is too thin to meet supply).

Thank you, couldn't have said it better myself.

"Bitassets have a buyer of last resort. They are missing a seller of last resort."

231
Topic starter suggests to provide liquidity with brute force, by taking all bids above the feed price on regular basis. Of course, MM account will be at loss this way, and traders will game it. Imo, it is ok to use reserve for market making, but strategy must be better than this. There should be a plan for issuing AND liquidating bitAsset. And liquidity should be provided both ways, for buyers and for sellers.

Sellers always have 100% liquidity, they can always sell at the peg, this what forced settlement is. We only need to provide liquidity for buyers.

Forced settlement is the last resort for holders to protect them from illiquid market, and it has limitations such as delay, offset and limited volume. Sellers still need market liquidity.

The offset and limited volume will only be become an issue if it gets voted for, it's not an issue yet. 
Another way that would help a lot with liquidity would the ability to place relative orders that move in line with the settlement price. Then for example i could place a buy order that is 0.1 % over the settlement and not havve to worry about the price shifting.

232
personally I do not like this idea, business should be done by businessmen.
+1
+5%

I dislike this as well and have cast that vote multiple times already.
For me, this is not the time to use our reserves to improve the liquidity .. not yet..

Can you give reasons why?

233
Topic starter suggests to provide liquidity with brute force, by taking all bids above the feed price on regular basis. Of course, MM account will be at loss this way, and traders will game it. Imo, it is ok to use reserve for market making, but strategy must be better than this. There should be a plan for issuing AND liquidating bitAsset. And liquidity should be provided both ways, for buyers and for sellers.

Sellers always have 100% liquidity, they can always sell at the peg, this what forced settlement is. We only need to provide liquidity for buyers.

234
personally I do not like this idea, business should be done by businessmen.
+1
This is not helpful. You need to explain how the committee creating a supply of BitUSD and selling it to those who want it could be negative.
Why would a businessman create and sell a bit asset if he cannot buy it back in the future to close his position?

235
Totally support the idea of actively managing the reserve funds to increase bitAsset liquidity. Here is financial model which could work:

1. Create a worker which receives 100K BTS per day (or whatever voters decide).
2. The worker uses available funds to issue bitUSD and build a sell wall at call price up to 1K bitUSD. If the wall drops below 1K, issue more bitUSD to raise it back.
3. Use available funds to build a buy wall at feed price up to 1K bitUSD. If the wall drops below 1K, settle debt and raise it back.
4. Adjust bid/ask orders to match the current feed/call price hourly.
5. Adjust collateral ratio to safe level hourly.
6. Send unspent funds (if any) back to reserve every week.

If this works:
I Raise the walls to 10K bitUSD.
II Apply this scheme to other bitAssets.

Comments? Can this be automated?


That is a good roadmap to add liquidity. I create a google spreadsheet model for that, including the worker script and current price feeds.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Zj7b0OCBBx_WYeDJWGdot3454UOTb5zJfZp2ulROfxQ/edit?usp=sharing

When we want to use: committee-trade
then we need to talk to:
Active
- bhuz   
- bitcube
- abit
- dele-puppy
- xeroc

@Bhuz @bitcube @abit @dele-puppy @xeroc

They are in charge of the account and should be able to set up a script as described by yvv.  I would suggest we start with USD and CNY first and test 90-150 days how the program works. It takes around 55 days to set up the 10k wall. It will take probably longer since more and more people will buy BitUSD.

The account can reuse the BTS he receives to create more BitAssets and sells them off.

What are the challenges?
- What if the BTS drops rapidly?
- At what price offset should be the sell wall?
- What happens if somebody buys up the complete wall? What comes next?
- How do we manage the debts of committee-trade once the worker is over?

Thanks for making this spreadsheet.

COLLATERAL RATIO
I have been thinking about the collateral backing for this committee created BitUSD. 
My initial thought was we don't want it to get force settled so we should have a high collateral ratio.
But then I realised the lowest collateralised BitUSD gets settled first meaning all the private bitUSD creators might be force settled in front of the committee's BitUSD.
So it might be better for the committee's created BitUSD to be the least collateralised so as not to dishearten private creators.

When the Committee's BitUSD is inevitably force settled it can just be recreated again until the debts of the committee-trade account are exactly the amount that has been agreed.

My conclusion is 2.5 collateral ratio isn't too low as it doesn't matter if it gets force settled.

DISTANCE FROM PEG TO SELL AT
Obviously we should never sell below the settlement price because anyone could buy it below settlement then force settle it in 24hrs for a profit as I have done in the past.
Also the bitshares price can move more than 5% in a day so if the committee place the sell order 5% over the settlement price and bts drops 6% in a day we will be in a position where the sell order is 1% below the settlement price.
The ultimate solution to this problem would be if bitshares had the ability to place relative orders where you could place orders that move up and down with the settlement price so that it is always priced at exactly +5% over. However this is not possible unless within bitshares now with out using an external bot system.
The current proposal of 100k per day would produce $5447 BitUSD per month using the spreadsheet numbers which is roughly $1361 a week.
This is not a lot of money to be adding each week and I think it should be sold to the highest bids that are over the settlement price at the same time each week.
The goal of this proposal is to get more BitUSD into circulation so even if a whale buys it all up in one go each week this is still good for liquidity.
Unfortunately we need to be creating much more than $5447 but if we tripled it that would be almost the entire dilution budget.
I don't think we will have sell walls for quite sometime. We need to greatly increase the amount of debt free BitUSD in existence and hopefully the traders will create sell walls themselves due to them not be scared of lack of new supply.

My conclusion is that the selling of these creating BitUSD doesn't need to be managed on an hourly/daily basis just a weekly sale to the highest bids at exactly the same time each week. As long as the bids are higher than the settlement price all is good.

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE COMMITTEE MAKES A LOSS
If bitshare go up the committee-trade account will make a profit.
If bitshares goes down the committee-trade account will make a loss.
It doesn't matter. However my guess would be it makes a profit.
Making a profit and avoiding a loss would be a bonus but the purpose is to get more BitUSD out in the wild not to make money.

 
WHAT HAPPENS AT THE END OF THIS WORKER PROPOSAL
I think it needs to be 100 % crystal clear that these funds will be used for exactly what is prescribed and there is no temptation in the future for the committee-trade account to change the debt amounts agreed on or be tempted to spend on something else. These debts should remain on the committee-trade account permanently unless the community votes to change this in the future.


OTHER POINTS
- The committee account already contains 1.5 million BTS which could be used to give this liquidity proposal a head start. 
- I think either BitUSD or BitCNY should be chosen for this liquidity proposal but not both. We have very little money and need to focus on a single one to prove it works.
- I can't see any negatives to trying this proposal apart from a rogue committee. Please let me know if you can see any other big negatives.
- When you hear people say 97% of money in existence is debt it is true. But remember it was the 3% of debt free money that kick started the creation of the other 97%. So we do need a good supply of debt free bitUSD to get the money creation process started.


236
my bad. got a decimal place wrong. So it would have to be 1 million BTS a week which is almost half the dilution budget!

The committee account would have to keep recreating the BitUSD whenever it got force settled so I'm not sure it can be done as a one off thing.


237

Steem backed dollars at 0.85 usd on external exchanges but not internally on the steem blockchain.
Might be because when you sell you SBD for Steem you have to wait a week to get them. Steem prices are very volatile and could crash a lot in one week.

nope. you can sell instantly. there's a median feature that takes 7 days until you get the median exchange steem, but that's another story

I guess people are taking a 15% hit to get their money out sooner then. But you can settle your SBD for $1 worth of steem with 7 days notice.

238
I would like to see a financial model for this idea so that we can crunch some numbers and see how such worker should be structured. Steem sure made some differnet exp with SBD, but right now one SBD is traded for .85 USD? What is that about?


What kind of financial model do you mean?
The comittee-account or comittee-trade worker just asks for 100k per week to create a bitusd supply from the BTS and sells it to anyone that wants it.

Steem backed dollars at 0.85 usd on external exchanges but not internally on the steem blockchain.
Might be because when you sell you SBD for Steem you have to wait a week to get them. Steem prices are very volatile and could crash a lot in one week.

239
  • I don't understand how would be 2000 bitUSD created using 100k BTS... looking into market right now, you can create 170 bitUSD with 100k BTS (collateral ratio 3)
  • What collateral ratio would you choose?
  • You want to sell it to highest bidder... at this moment it would mean that some of these 2000 bitUSD would be sold for as low as 170 BTS (feed price 195.73)
  • Who is going to buy these created bitUSD? There are bids for about 580 bitUSD around/above feed price
100,000 bts x 0.5 cent = $5000 with a collateral ratio of 2.5  would create $2000 bitUSD ( plus when sold by the committee for BTS it would create an additional 40,000 bts which could be either added to the collateral or used to create even more bitUSD)

Obviously it makes no sense to sell bitusd below the feed price as anyone could buy them up and then force settle them for a profit as I have done in the past.

Theres plenty of willing buyers for bitUSD but nobody wants to buy with huge mark ups.

240
After almost a year it's clear to me that the current system where speculators are expected to short BitUSD into existence will not create the large supply of BitUSD  needed to make bitshares successful.

All bitassets have this same issue but we should on concentrate BitUSD or maybe BitCNY first.

We can learn from Steem backed dollars (SBD) which are backed by even more collateral than BitUSD but are created in an autonomous way by the system and not by traders.

I believe Bitshares needs an autonomous solution for creating a supply of BitUSD so that it is always available to buy and without a huge markup against USD.
This would require a hard fork and community consensus.

The easier option is to get the committee to create a worker proposal where all the received funds are used to create BitUSD and sell it to anyone who wants it.

I propose the committee make a worker proposal called (BitUSD liquidity) for 100k BTS per week which is used solely to create $2000 bitUSD every week.
This will all be sold to the highest bidder each week.

It is important to note that even though the committee will receiving 100k BTS each week for creating BitUSD there will not be an increase in the overall supply of BTS available to the public. Also the increase in supply of BITUSD will be 100% offset with the BTS used to buy it. This means dilution is not an issue at all unless the committee goes rogue and attempts to spend these funds on anything other than the creation of bitUSD.

This isn't the first time this idea has been suggested but I think now is the time to try it and if the community doesn't like it they don't have to support this worker proposal but I would like to see the committee propose it so it can be voted on.

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