I think we simply make it a market for data feeds. Have someone produce a data feed that the network uses. Every time a transaction references that data-feed, the owner of the feed gets a cut of the transaction fees. Now market participants can place bets according to the feed.
Isn't this centralized with a singe point of failure? One idea is to use a PoS Consensus transaction, where the data from the feed becomes valid only after it is signed by majority stake.
No it is free market competition. There can be many data feeds and anyone can start a business producing the feed. The bet odds will factor in the probability that the feed is corrupt. Market incentives are for honest feeds.
And there will of course be multiple feeds for the same event. John_SuperBowl_Feed, Jim_SuperBowl_Feed, Sam_SuperBowl_Feed. The bettors could set it up to require X% of feeds in agreement, or else the bet is cancelled.
Of course then you have potential conflict-of-interest where somebody with a large losing bet goes to John and Jim and offers to pay them off if they provide the wrong info in their feeds. So the betting system needs some kind of built-in payment to the feed providers (which can be specified when setting up the bet) to keep them honest. They would rather get a cut of 10% of the total bets made, than a big payoff from some losing bettor.
i don't know the context here, but at some point, the after the fact data "results" needs to be unanimous or else there is a fork. especially if its binary (bool) data.
or is each provider his own "broker" to both sides of the trade?
I really think that the problems/solutions regarding feeds is specific to the DAS (system), and cannot be generalized. If there is a solution in BitShares then its a feature of bts, and cannot be abstracted for implementation in NXT
or Ether for example.
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