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Messages - binggo

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1606
既然见证人的提供的喂价分歧这么大,各种汇率转换不同,差价如此之大,建议修正喂价结果的方式,

既然有偏差就应该加入偏差指数:

偏差率=P

喂价=内盘深度加权中间价*权重+外盘指数价格×(1+P)*权重

设一个上下价格保护: 外盘指数价格×(1+P)<喂价< (1.05+P)×外盘指数价格


存在的一个问题就是: 如何去明确参数P?  由谁来调整?  喂价提供者也可以自己调整, 像一些只有BTC交易对的, 可能P就大一些, 像一些有QC交易对的P就可能小一些.  也可以由喂价提供者单独喂这么一个偏差参数.

没有将溢价率加到里面是因为: 溢价率虽然也反应BTS的部分情况下的实际法币价格, 但是溢价率受部分内盘价格影响, 又反过来部分影响内盘价格, 这种相关系数很容易就套进BSIP42的圈子里.

像这种偏差系数虽然也受外部交易所交易手续费及换算汇率影响, 但是大部分情况下大致也就在固定的范围内做波动, 像BITUSD,bitjpy, bit欧元这样没有直接法币网关的, 溢价率很难去取.

而且喂价的刷新时间必须有明确的规定, 原则上不应该低于5分钟一刷新.

这样就可以大部分的避免因不同国别,不同取样,不同汇率带来的喂价与实际法币价格的失真.

比如, bitcny. 当外盘实际法币价格上升到0.41的时候, CHINA的见证人的价格多数都能跟上实际法币价格的变化, 而国外的见证人一般因为汇率问题,BTC,USD,USDT及取样问题等等,导致其喂价与实际法币价格失真严重, 加入偏差指数后, 喂价基本可以与实际法币价格接近;

实际法币价格下跌, 也可以避免被大量国外见证人迅速拉低喂价,导致爆仓惨案.

----------------------------

1607
中文 (Chinese) / Re: BTS生态发展的几个关键点
« on: March 29, 2019, 11:09:07 pm »
警惕这些完全脱离实际CNY价格的喂价!MSSR调整成102%,在这些低喂价的压制下实际上是104%的结果。

外盘涨的时候,他们在磨磨唧唧的脱后腿,外盘跌的时候,他们降的比兔子还快,要这样的喂价有什么意义?![doge][doge][doge][doge][doge] ​​​

建议最终喂价=中值喂价+(最高喂价-最低喂价),这样总不至于太离谱吧?!

连一个公平价格的喂价都做不到!!!!!

1608
中文 (Chinese) / Re: BTS下一个版本修改点征集
« on: March 29, 2019, 01:03:11 pm »
巨蟹提出的提案已经将MSSR降低了, 也算是前面没有白白费口舌,实现了提议之一。下面仍旧是老生常谈的提议:


一、强清补偿与抵押率挂钩来实现线性补偿,强清实现目标抵押率:

影响强清的因素:喂价,强清补偿,强清延迟时间,强清补偿参数,强清总量。

第一:对低于MCR的抵押实行强清补偿从零到负2%,抵押率越低得到的强清补偿越低,此区间的强清延迟的时间改为1小时或者更短一些(不建议实行即时强清),

这样对市场是否有足够的吸引力来进行强清?
是否能够及时缓解价格下跌带来的抵押爆仓风险?
留给市场的竞争性是否足够?
在本身喂价就偏低的情况下,是否会对市场卖单形成压制?
系统是否过多的干预市场?
严重滞后的喂价是否会在外盘价格大幅上升时因为严重落后于实际价格而导致大量强清压制内盘?
或者外盘价格大幅下跌时,因为喂价下跌慢而导致无人强清?!

第二:对高于MCR的抵押实行强清补偿从零到5%,抵押率越高得到的强清补偿越高,此区间的强清延迟时间为24小时。

第三:对于强清总量是否需要再放大一些还是维持原状?

第四:一个问题就是负2%的强清补偿的界点抵押率是130%?5%强清补偿的界点抵押率是200%?

第五:如果能够实现以上,还需要两个前提条件:

1.强清抵押率也需要与目标抵押率挂钩;至于如何实现与判定需要讨论;这样可以防止利用强清大量收集筹码;
2.MSSR必须为零或者足够小;

一些情况曾经在另一个帖子列举过, 懒的去翻了。

贴线抵押必然需要冒比高抵押率更大的风险,平仓是其一,被强清是其二。

内盘被压制的因素:爆仓单,高MSSR,抛盘,强清补偿,喂价,各锚定资产市场的不平衡,市场情绪,供应问题。

爆仓单延伸出来的就是高MSSR的问题;

强清补偿延伸出来的就是固定参数的弊端,高了没人清,低了“恶性”清,变更速度远跟不上市场变化;

喂价延伸出来的是外盘刷喂价的问题;

各锚定资产市场的不平衡表现的就是现在这种情况,被bitusd市场死死压住。

供应问题对手续费影响的时间很短暂。


全局清算机制的重新设计,设立黑天鹅保护基金,最终的整体反向减仓:

在有黑天鹅保护机制的情况下,实现以下功能:

黑天鹅需要消除,仅仅靠黑天鹅保护机制还不行,毕竟逻辑上存在有缺陷,只要保证债仓是足额抵押就好了,这里说的足额抵押不是175%,175%仅仅是抵押中维持的最低抵押率而已,而不是是否足额抵押的判断。

在有黑天鹅保护机制的前提下:

步骤1:设立黑天鹅基金来处理110%的债仓,使其抵押率始终维系在110% . 至于黑天鹅基金的来源,比如1:可以设置一个平仓手续费机制,类似于永续合约里的保险基金,比如MSSR为102%,其平仓价为喂价/102%,任何大于平仓价的市场成交其多出来的成交额收归黑天鹅基金;比如2:锚定资产区的手续费拨付一部分到黑天鹅基金。

步骤2:当黑天鹅基金失去效应的时候,由整个锚定资产全部反向减仓进行维系110%抵押率;

当然这个建议可以有些极端化,但是对于大量处于死亡沉淀状态的比如大量的bitusd,不进行预防处理,将来必定是一颗大雷,;

或者整体债仓达到30%资不抵债的时候,进行整个锚定资产全部反向减仓;整体债仓达到30%资不抵债,锚定资产大幅贬值,必然需要部分进行回收进行锚定价值维护,利用目标抵押率进行整体锚定资产反向减仓好过资不抵债,用黄金bts来换取手中大幅贬值的纸币也是必要操作。

1609
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Poll] BSIP59:Reduce MCR of bitCNY to 1.6
« on: March 28, 2019, 02:36:04 pm »
Quote
BSIP42 (which left MCR/MSSR unchanged and relied on a "fake" price) was a different story altogether.

I agree that changing MCR/MSSR often makes it hard to evaluate risk but at the same time , it's the ONLY way to fight discount/premium.

They were a same story, and you will find it out finally. We have talk about these in Chinese forum, they are same, BSIP42  not changed the feed price only, it also changed the MCR/MSSR from another point of view.

So changing MCR/MSSR often is another BSIP42, no different, and only MSSR affects premium a bit.

Let the Force Settlement offset change as the CR, it a way.

I know the end effect was almost the same. That's why we adopted that solution in the first place since we couldn't mess with MCR/MSSR directly.

My point about BSIP42 being a different story had to do with the way it was applied and the extremely slow response to trend changes

I don't think the wittness have the ability to do this, they are not the economist, they have poor showing in the BSIP42.

Just like said" Stable coins no longer become stable if witnesses change MCR/MSSR every minute or every hour."

If the futures market change the MCR/MSSR often, what will happen?

Don't focus on the MCR, let's check the Force Settlement offset, let it change as the CR, will a better way.

a) Dont even try and blame BSIP42 on the witnesses. It was forced upon them via BSIP, same way this MCR BSIP is about to be
b) Actually, a continuously variable MCR/MSSR is EXACTLY what would keep them extremely stable (let's ignore the maths behind it for a moment and whether witnesses are up to the task or not)...fact of the matter is that you can't keep it stable with FIXED params...it needs to follow the market)
c) Futures market is a different story altogether... Even those however actually evaluate variation margin daily (and this is in a much more controlled and less volatile environment than crypto) and move funds between the 2 sides

The wittnesses have a great deal of freedom in the BSIP 42, they can perform more professional.
i and some people have point out the problem asap, and can revise via BSIP 42,but no one want to discuss,espacally have so many chinese wittness,so what happen?

A continuously variable MCR/MSSR is the worest idea i think, and never keep the stablecoin extremely stable, just will let the market more worse and will less people will come in as the rule will not be a rule.

No coin can stable, eg. dollor, gold, oil, BTC...   stablecoin just extremely stable to itself, everyone want to control the exchange will be fail,so if we want the amateur wittness to control the exchange and to act as the Fed?en... :(

I don't want the wittness to disupt the market too much and too deep, they will be not only the players but also the referee, it will be very worse, it is centralization, not decentralization.

Futures market and the collateral, there isn't really much of a difference between them.

1610
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Poll] BSIP59:Reduce MCR of bitCNY to 1.6
« on: March 28, 2019, 01:19:22 pm »
Quote
BSIP42 (which left MCR/MSSR unchanged and relied on a "fake" price) was a different story altogether.

I agree that changing MCR/MSSR often makes it hard to evaluate risk but at the same time , it's the ONLY way to fight discount/premium.

They were a same story, and you will find it out finally. We have talk about these in Chinese forum, they are same, BSIP42  not changed the feed price only, it also changed the MCR/MSSR from another point of view.

So changing MCR/MSSR often is another BSIP42, no different, and only MSSR affects premium a bit.

Let the Force Settlement offset change as the CR, it a way.

I know the end effect was almost the same. That's why we adopted that solution in the first place since we couldn't mess with MCR/MSSR directly.

My point about BSIP42 being a different story had to do with the way it was applied and the extremely slow response to trend changes

I don't think the wittness have the ability to do this, they are not the economist, they have poor showing in the BSIP42.

Just like said" Stable coins no longer become stable if witnesses change MCR/MSSR every minute or every hour."

If the futures market change the MCR/MSSR often, what will happen?

Don't focus on the MCR, let's check the Force Settlement offset, let it change as the CR, will a better way.

Leave the wittness alone, let they do what they should do,to feed a fair feed price is a very hard work already for them.

1611
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Poll] BSIP59:Reduce MCR of bitCNY to 1.6
« on: March 28, 2019, 11:56:29 am »
Quote
BSIP42 (which left MCR/MSSR unchanged and relied on a "fake" price) was a different story altogether.

I agree that changing MCR/MSSR often makes it hard to evaluate risk but at the same time , it's the ONLY way to fight discount/premium.

They were a same story, and you will find it out finally. We have talk about these in Chinese forum, they are same, BSIP42  not changed the feed price only, it also changed the MCR/MSSR from another point of view.

So changing MCR/MSSR often is another BSIP42, no different, and only MSSR affects premium a bit.

Let the Force Settlement offset change as the CR, it a way.



1612
MCR的调节现在有两种观点

1. 巨蟹提出将MCR改为1.6, 固定化,个人观点可以尝试, 但是有风险双边放大的情况;

2. 理事xeroc提出由见证人来动态调节MCR, 这种方法我看来是错误的, 我们从BSIP42中得到的教训就是不能赋予见证人太多的自由度, 这往往会大大偏离实际的设想, 学费不能白交, BSIP42中依然有我们许多可以借鉴之处.

而如果想要这两种观点融合到一块, 我建议看下将强清补偿这个参数与抵押率进行挂钩的想法, 既可以实现1,又可以实现2中的动态.

可以来讨论一下强清补偿与抵押率挂钩来实现线性补偿这个功能对平仓有什么样的影响。

影响强清的因素:喂价,强清补偿,强清延迟时间,强清补偿参数,强清总量。

第一:对低于MCR的抵押实行强清补偿从零到负2%,抵押率越低得到的强清补偿越低,此区间的强清延迟的时间改为1小时或者更短一些(不建议实行即时强清),

这样对市场是否有足够的吸引力来进行强清?
是否能够及时缓解价格下跌带来的抵押爆仓风险?
留给市场的竞争性是否足够?
在本身喂价就偏低的情况下,是否会对市场卖单形成压制?
系统是否过多的干预市场?
严重滞后的喂价是否会在外盘价格大幅上升时因为严重落后于实际价格而导致大量强清压制内盘?
或者外盘价格大幅下跌时,因为喂价下跌慢而导致无人强清?!

第二:对高于MCR的抵押实行强清补偿从零到5%,抵押率越高得到的强清补偿越高,此区间的强清延迟时间为24小时。

第三:对于强清总量是否需要再放大一些还是维持原状?

第四:一个问题就是负2%的强清补偿的界点抵押率是130%?5%强清补偿的界点抵押率是200%?

第五:如果能够实现以上,还需要两个前提条件:

1.强清抵押率也需要与目标抵押率挂钩;至于如何实现与判定需要讨论;
2.MSSR必须为零或者足够小;

一些情况曾经在另一个帖子列举过, 懒的去翻了,。


贴线抵押必然需要冒比高抵押率更大的风险,平仓是其一,被强清是其二。

内盘被压制的因素:爆仓单,高MSSR,抛盘,强清补偿,喂价,各锚定资产市场的不平衡,市场情绪,供应问题。

爆仓单延伸出来的就是高MSSR的问题;

强清补偿延伸出来的就是固定参数的弊端,高了没人清,低了“恶性”清,变更速度远跟不上市场变化;

喂价延伸出来的是外盘刷喂价的问题;

各锚定资产市场的不平衡表现的就是现在这种情况,被bitusd市场死死压住。

供应问题对手续费影响的时间很短暂。

1613
中文 (Chinese) / Re: GDEX做市计划
« on: March 28, 2019, 11:13:21 am »
    喂价严重滞后,反应太慢,内盘做市不如外盘,所以内盘交易量很低,手续费杯水车薪,没多大意义。前两天,内盘喂价0.36,外盘中币都0.45了。这样的喂价机制不适应市场做市。
这不是问题,喂价本来就应该对突发的价格变化有一定的平滑作用。

我对此有点异议, 有时候这种喂价并不能起到平滑作用, 因为上涨的时候它涨的最慢,而跌的时候却是最快.


1614
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: [Poll] BSIP59:Reduce MCR of bitCNY to 1.6
« on: March 28, 2019, 10:24:06 am »
Stable coins no longer become stable if witnesses change MCR/MSSR every minute or every hour. Investors will feel very unsecure because the coin become very uncertain.

Thus I prefer the community propose BSIP to change MCR/MSSR, committee members announce it once it voted it and then witnesses implement it.
Agree with that.
Agree with that.

witnesses change MCR/MSSR every minute or every hour which like BSIP42, we have learned a lesson from BSIP 42.

1615
You have been submitting very low feed prices.Is it not for shorting the market?

hardly low... within 1% of median.

Yes, CNC and QC pairs are slightly higher but not by much. And other sources are lower. I feed what I feel is fair.

That's the thing about medians, some will be lower/some will be higher.

And no , I don't short the market... I don't really trade at all.

You can call me a cancer if my feed was 5-10% lower.

I don't appreciate the insults due to a 1% variance

Code: [Select]
witness.yao 0.4113 0.4936 1.75 1.02 46秒钟前
roelandp 0.4092 0.4910 1.75 1.02 1分钟前
delegate-zhaomu 0.4108 0.4930 1.75 1.02 1分钟前
crazybit 0.4061 0.5076 1.75 1.02 1分钟前
gdex-witness 0.4130 0.5450 1.75 1.02 2分钟前
witness.hiblockchain 0.4093 0.4912 1.75 1.02 4分钟前
magicwallet.witness 0.4044 0.4853 1.75 1.02 4分钟前
clockwork 0.4054 0.4865 1.75 1.02 5分钟前
verbaltech2 0.4072 0.5090 1.75 1.02 5分钟前
fox 0.4039 0.4847 1.75 1.02 6分钟前
witness.still 0.4083 0.5103 1.75 1.02 6分钟前
zapata42-witness 0.4117 0.4941 1.75 1.02 6分钟前
xn-delegate 0.4059 0.4871 1.75 1.02 6分钟前
bhuz 0.4110 0.4326 1.75 1.02 6分钟前
delegate-1.lafona 0.4092 0.4910 1.75 1.02 6分钟前
elmato 0.4053 0.4256 1.75 1.1 6分钟前
btspp-witness 0.4104 0.4925 1.75 1.02 10分钟前
openledger-dc 0.4093 0.4916 1.75 1.02 15分钟前
sahkan-bitshares 0.4051 0.4861 1.75 1.02 26分钟前
in.abit 0.4096 0.5251 1.75 1.02 29分钟前
blckchnd 0.4019 0.4822 1.75 1.05 36分钟前
xeldal 0.4078 0.4893 1.75 1.02 59分钟前
bangzi 0.4084 0.4901 1.75 1.02 1小时前

I don't think low outside 1% of median is a fair price, especially low,0.4084 i can understand how it come, but i don't understand 0.4039.

up slow, down quickly.

and what's up with these two guys?

blckchnd   1.75  1.05  
elmato      1.75  1.1 

1616
中文 (Chinese) / Re: 新版重钱包 3.0.0
« on: March 27, 2019, 10:38:55 am »
收到!

1617
magicwallet.witness   0.3850    1.75   1.02   
clockwork                   0.3888    1.75   1.02   
crazybit                           0.3882    1.75   1.02   
blckchnd                           0.3884    1.75   1.05   
elmato                           0.3867    1.75   1.1   
sahkan-bitshares           0.3887    1.75   1.02   

以上见证人喂价低也就罢了,喂0.3888我可以理解是BTC价格转换过来的误差额度,但是喂0.3850是怎么出来的?!!!!

一个价格都不能喂好的见证人怎么来当见证人?

另外红色标出的这几位大爷级别的见证人连最基本的社区投票共识都不遵守,还在维持最低抵押率1.05与1.1,这样还不被投下去?

如果部分理事与见证人如此不作为与漠视社区,这才是寒心。!!!

1618
如何把bitusd的黑天鹅状态解除出来也是现在需要考虑的事情。

很明显的一个事实是,大量bitusd的持有者并不关心bitusd是否黑天鹅,也无意也没有动力去处理bitusd,相当尴尬的情况,宁可手持贬值的bitusd也不愿意去持有bts,现在好了,bitusd升值成这个模样?!。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。变相脱锚。。。

而不采取措施的话就只能等着bts价格上升自动复活。

我的意见是: 只要bitusd的债仓抵押率大于120%就应该将其脱离黑天鹅状态,同时实行黑天鹅保护机制,谁的债仓归谁,不要把整个债仓都拉来垫背。

黑天鹅强清价格:0.0511 bitUSD/BTS

自动复活价格:0.0888 bitUSD/BTS

这要涨多少才能复活?!!!75%。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。!!!!!!!当初怎么想的?!!!!


全局清算脱离实际的几个方面:

1.是否有足够活跃的bitusd来清除掉所有债仓?
如果有大量的死账户bitusd怎么处理?这些债仓是不是永远都平不掉,最后只能有系统来背负这些债仓?长此以往,最后系统是不是成为了最大的冤大头?

2.固定死的全局清算价格是否符合市场竞争?对复活有什么积极作用?

在有1情况存在的情况下,市场有何动力来强清这些债仓?例如bitusd难道不会严重的偏锚?

3.为什么要到175%才能复活?难道债仓的抵押率大于120%或者110%的时候不是足额抵押?
在情况1及2的影响下,从固定死的全局清算价格到复活价格,75%的价格涨幅?!!!。。。。

4.全局清算不能再进行抵押就不会产生出足够的bitusd来进行清算,加上情况1,怎么能够以清算及负债来复活?

难道还是寄希望与bts负债,覆盖整个bitusd的债仓需要多少量的bts,基本是天量,负债了之后,价格下跌再被全局清算?哪个交易者会傻到冒这样的系统风险来做这样的期货爆仓交易?

5.清算池被大户大量背负债仓,导致整个投票权重失衡,当然我不是对猴子哥有意见,机制规则设置的这样,无可厚非。



黑天鹅需要消除,仅仅靠黑天鹅保护机制还不行,毕竟逻辑上存在有缺陷,只要保证债仓是足额抵押就好了,这里说的足额抵押不是175%,175%仅仅是抵押中维持的最低抵押率而已,而不是是否足额抵押的判断。

在有黑天鹅保护机制的前提下:

步骤1:设立黑天鹅基金来处理110%的债仓,使其抵押率始终维系在110% . 至于黑天鹅基金的来源,再讨论;

步骤2:当黑天鹅基金失去效应的时候,由整个锚定资产来反向减仓进行维系101%抵押率维系;当然这个建议可以有些极端化,但是对于大量处于死亡沉淀状态的比如大量的bitusd,不进行预防处理,将来必定是一颗大雷, 当整体的债仓49%资不抵债的时候,手中的锚定资产必然会大幅贬值,必然需要部分进行回收进行锚定价值维护,利用目标抵押率进行整体锚定资产减仓好过资不抵债。


1619
适当的负数还是可以的,毕竟也要留给市场去博弈套利的空间,风险共存。

-2%的补偿对入金手续费的幅度3%来说还尚在能够接受的范围。

虽然到最后市场也会处于持平状态。

1620
我感觉是有必要把这个强清补偿这个固定参数拿出来再说道说道了。

可以来讨论一下强清补偿与抵押率挂钩来实现阶梯补偿这个功能对平仓有什么样的影响。

影响强清的因素:喂价,强清补偿,强清延迟时间,强清补偿参数,强清总量。

第一:如果对低于MCR的抵押实行强清补偿从零到负2%,抵押率越低得到的强清补偿越低,此区间的强清延迟的时间改为1小时或者更短一些,

这样对市场是否有足够的吸引力来进行强清?
留给市场的竞争性是否足够?
在本身喂价就偏低的情况下,是否会对市场卖单形成压制?
是否能够及时缓解潜在的抵押风险?
系统是否过多的干预市场?
严重滞后的喂价是否会在外盘价格大幅上升时因为严重落后于实际价格而导致大量强清压制内盘?!

第二:如果对高于MCR的抵押实行强清补偿从零到5%,抵押率越高得到的强清补偿越高,此区间的强清延迟时间为24小时。

第三:对于强清总量是否需要再放大一些?

第四:一个问题就是负2%的强清补偿的界点抵押率是130%?5%强清补偿的界点抵押率是200%?

第五:如果能够实现以上,还需要两个前提条件:

1. 强清抵押率也需要与目标抵押率挂钩;至于如何实现与判定需要讨论;
2.MSSR必须为零;

另外:平仓单是否需要由系统接管按冰山委托成交???。。。?


分割线
还有一个就是,虽然有黑天鹅保护,但是将来还是需要一个能够相对根除黑天鹅的办法,我的想法是需要设立一个针对理事会发行的对应锚定资产的黑天鹅基金,对处于101%的债仓使用黑天鹅基金进行部分系统负债,利用目标抵押率的机制,让其脱离资不抵债的状态。

此黑天鹅基金可以来自于系统收取的手续费的拨付,以及锚定资产区收取的锚定资产交易手续费及平仓收取的部分费用??

当然可能还有更更好的办法。

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