zone of resistance starting right around 2370... also the up and down trends come together around the 2.0 launch date. I'm concerned we'll see another drop at launch as traders take profits. ("buy the rumor, sell the news")

The horizontal red line on the image below predicts a level of resistance around 2367 satoshis. After that it's clear sailing all the way to 2500 sat. That's the upper border of the downtrend. When bts can get safely above 2500 then you can bring out the rocket memes.

So did we break it yet?

yup.



one note of caution is that buy orders on poloniex have declined to around 300 btc this morning.  That suggests that in the past 12 hours around 100 btc have been withdrawn from the bids and used to buy up the asks. We need more buy pressure to keep this rally going, otherwise some whale is going to take profits and the downtrend might resume.

thrilling but no cigar...

Looks to me that 1921 was the low and we are heading up now.

I'm not so sure. Here's how I see it right now:



I anticipate at least one more dump to the bottom of the channel before we will see a serious possibility of breaking through the downtrend from the speculative highs.

There are usually around ~400 btc of buy orders on poloniex, and bts is now the number one traded coin most days of the week. A couple times this week I saw the bids drop to ~200 btc. Huge swings in the bid pile suggest just a few whale traders are in play at poloniex. So that leads me to believe that the pro crypto traders at polo bid up the price of bts at the time Dan announced the Oct 13 date for the bts 2.0 beta launch.  (Edit: Ander points out that polo traders probably jumped in somewhere over 2300 satoshis. I think he's on to something but based on the chart I would call the entry point more like 1800 sat.)

The second wave of buys (starting at ~1800 satoshis) caused the price to bubble on anticipation of the graphene release.

When prices rise and then start to fall again, it's human nature to want to preserve your wealth. The bts community is composed of risk-takers, so it makes sense that these investors would take a risk to preserve or increase their investment.

It's worth noting polo traders read this forum and listen to recordings of our Friday meetings. They also read Stan's announcements, and maybe in spite of themselves they also get a little tingly that BitShares might actually be The One.

But a pro trader is a pro trader. The object of their game is trading-for-profit.

xeroc and fav have helped me with technical issues, among others.

The downtrend is still in effect, but might possibly break to the upside near term...