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General Discussion / Re: would you support a cheater as the wintess?
« on: January 02, 2019, 10:17:46 am »the finally median price y is about random in a range of x*0.99 ~ x*1.01, or more.
suppose you are a honest witness, which give your feed price z in reasoanble, without any information about other's feed price and median price,
the posibility of z close to y less than 0.01% is about 0.01%/0.02, which is far more less than 1%
This assumption is wrong. The median corresponds exactly to at least one witness-provided feed value. So for 25 witnesses the raw probability that the median is yours is 4%.
This raw probability is in reality increased significantly by at least two more aspects:
* When a witness publishes a new feed value, his feed is the most recent and therefore more likely to be close to x than anyone else's.
* Some witnesses publish a new feed only if that would change the median. (This is a simple optimization which is perfectly valid and acceptable if the feed is checked often.)
IMO if you publish a price only if it changes the median, and your price is likely to be close to the median, the conclusion is that your feed value will be chosen as the median quite often.
Please provide proof if you accuse someone of cheating. The mere fact that someone provides an accurate feed can hardly be taken as such.