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Hmm...so prediction markets are awesome...truthcoin is a great idea...toast "wants it to exist"...and a leading dev is apparently willing to jump ship. Why aren't we in on this then? What's stopping us? I still feel like there's this big history between BitShares and Truthcoin that I'm missing...
this summer
On the contrary there is no benefit to have bitUSD be backed by nothing, but there is significant risk.
As the volume of the bitUSD market increases, the profit from executing a massive speculative attack would also increase tremendously.
With price feeds we permanently prevent such a meltdown from being possible and we ensure that the long term expected value of bitUSD is always 1. If we keep them permanently then bitAssets are and always will be backed by something liquid and valuable at a 1:1 ratio, and they can thus be trusted fully as a store of wealth.
Quote from: Rune on November 08, 2014, 06:29:01 pmSo as I see it, the only advantage of removing price feeds is to appease religious extremists who hate anything they identify as being "centralized". There's no actual profit motive.Agreed. You make some great arguments Rune.
So as I see it, the only advantage of removing price feeds is to appease religious extremists who hate anything they identify as being "centralized". There's no actual profit motive.
Truthcoin is underrated. I tried to jumpstart an independent effort with only basic support and it fizzled. We have a c++ implementation of the critical features but no resources to build it.I want it to exist...Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk
Quote from: monsterer on November 08, 2014, 12:34:17 amQuote from: Rune on November 07, 2014, 11:37:09 pmI really don't understand the hate people have to the price feeds. They seem like an excellent mechanism to me. They currently work great, and in the future there will be massive incentives to improve them in ways that make them more transparent, faster and smarter. I don't see why we should ever remove them unless some major problem arises from them.It's because they are an outside source; a potential point of failure outside the control of the blockchain. Ideally, the information which is currently injected into the blockchain would just arrive there, indirectly, through arbitrage opportunity via the efficient market hypothesis.Sorry, but I have to rant some more about this . Neither of those arguments make any sense to me from a business point of view. The efficient market will not necessarily create arbitrage opportunities because without price feeds the only relation bitUSD has with USD is the name. A severe, but temporary, loss of confidence or perhaps a large-scale speculative attack against the bitasset could make it rapidly go to zero, permanently destroying it. Additionally, without external markets interfacing with the blockchain it becomes completely worthless in general, so theoretically there will always be external poins of failure and price feeds do not really add or subtract from that risk. In practice this risk is solved by diversification, and thus isn't a long term issue. The general dismissal of price feeds seems to me like another religious fallacy that only exists due to the extremist beliefs of bitcoiners (everything must be non-profit and everything must have maximized decentralization or its a scam and evil!!11), it doesn't actually have a real basis in economics or business practice. /endrant
Quote from: Rune on November 07, 2014, 11:37:09 pmI really don't understand the hate people have to the price feeds. They seem like an excellent mechanism to me. They currently work great, and in the future there will be massive incentives to improve them in ways that make them more transparent, faster and smarter. I don't see why we should ever remove them unless some major problem arises from them.It's because they are an outside source; a potential point of failure outside the control of the blockchain. Ideally, the information which is currently injected into the blockchain would just arrive there, indirectly, through arbitrage opportunity via the efficient market hypothesis.
I really don't understand the hate people have to the price feeds. They seem like an excellent mechanism to me. They currently work great, and in the future there will be massive incentives to improve them in ways that make them more transparent, faster and smarter. I don't see why we should ever remove them unless some major problem arises from them.
Quote from: jsidhu on November 08, 2014, 07:28:56 amIt makes since to pay attention to him since hes a decision maker...? The way some of you guys are referring to this guy makes him sound like some legendary mastermind. I truly feel like I'm missing something here...And I have yet to see anything that TruthCoin offers that supposedly makes it so much more awesome than BTS. Just prediction markets? (Which I admittedly don't fully understand). If they're that amazing surely BTS would implement them sooner or later?This feels like a TruthCoin pump thread or something, lol.
It makes since to pay attention to him since hes a decision maker
Quote from: Rune on November 08, 2014, 01:26:12 amSorry, but I have to rant some more about this . Neither of those arguments make any sense to me from a business point of view. The efficient market will not necessarily create arbitrage opportunities because without price feeds the only relation bitUSD has with USD is the name. A severe, but temporary, loss of confidence or perhaps a large-scale speculative attack against the bitasset could make it rapidly go to zero, permanently destroying it.Well, this is obviously not possible at the moment because of the very poor liquidity and lack of decent on/off ramps to actual USD. But once these are in place, and liquidity is decent enough, the likelihood of this kind of attack succeeding diminishes because the advantage to be gained through arbitrage will be huge.QuoteThe general dismissal of price feeds seems to me like another religious fallacy that only exists due to the extremist beliefs of bitcoiners (everything must be non-profit and everything must have maximized decentralization or its a scam and evil!!11), it doesn't actually have a real basis in economics or business practice. /endrantThe price feed and the way shorts work is an artificial mechanism designed to make up for the lack of liquidity and resilience in the market. I'm not sure what economics or business practices you are referring to?
Sorry, but I have to rant some more about this . Neither of those arguments make any sense to me from a business point of view. The efficient market will not necessarily create arbitrage opportunities because without price feeds the only relation bitUSD has with USD is the name. A severe, but temporary, loss of confidence or perhaps a large-scale speculative attack against the bitasset could make it rapidly go to zero, permanently destroying it.
The general dismissal of price feeds seems to me like another religious fallacy that only exists due to the extremist beliefs of bitcoiners (everything must be non-profit and everything must have maximized decentralization or its a scam and evil!!11), it doesn't actually have a real basis in economics or business practice. /endrant
Truthcoin is underrated. I tried to jumpstart an independent effort with only basic support and it fizzled. We have a c++ implementation of the critical features but no resources to build it.
the tried-and-true security model
Quote from: jsidhu on November 07, 2014, 09:37:40 pmits a pretty cool idea and I did email stan about trying to integrate prediction markets via bts toolkit but he didnt get the email and didn't respond back when asking what his email was...My team @ syscoin is in talks with truth coin dev and he wants to collaborate.. and its actually a very cool idea... the idea is we would dev and use him as a theoretical resource since he did alot of research on prediction markets that you can read up about on his github.I think he hung out on our dev mumble session for about 3 hours and basically answered a thousand questions about truthcoin. Unfortunately he did not get to learn very much about bitshares at least during that session.
its a pretty cool idea and I did email stan about trying to integrate prediction markets via bts toolkit but he didnt get the email and didn't respond back when asking what his email was...My team @ syscoin is in talks with truth coin dev and he wants to collaborate.. and its actually a very cool idea... the idea is we would dev and use him as a theoretical resource since he did alot of research on prediction markets that you can read up about on his github.
Lol at POW being "tried-and-true"...by that logic so are dial-up modems.And the rest of the claims sound like crap too.....I call shenanigans.
QuoteBitsharesX (in at least most of its quickly-mutating versions), is unlikely to gain widespread acceptance for several reasons, the chief of which is DPoS, which makes highly flawed assumptions about human nature, is explicitly plutocratic (and not capitalist), has market-design-features which sap needed liquidity, employs Soviet-style price fixing (which retards the flourishing of the crucial BitUSD), doesn’t scale (technically it may scale…recall this is a micro-econ blog), and is simply/cheaply attacked (or, at least, completely re-centralized) by finding/threatening/murdering 76% of the “delegates”.I think our market design is likely not optimal and some liquidity will be lost to this (and we could probably do without feeds with a better design -- not that they're really an issue for anyone other than delegates), but the rest of the points just sound like they're from someone who hasn't thought very deeply about these things.It's really quite trivial and obvious that DPOS just organizes the centralization that would be present in any system rather than allowing it to form in an ad hoc and likely less secure fashion.
BitsharesX (in at least most of its quickly-mutating versions), is unlikely to gain widespread acceptance for several reasons, the chief of which is DPoS, which makes highly flawed assumptions about human nature, is explicitly plutocratic (and not capitalist), has market-design-features which sap needed liquidity, employs Soviet-style price fixing (which retards the flourishing of the crucial BitUSD), doesn’t scale (technically it may scale…recall this is a micro-econ blog), and is simply/cheaply attacked (or, at least, completely re-centralized) by finding/threatening/murdering 76% of the “delegates”.
Lol at POW being "tried-and-true"...by that logic so are dial-up modems.And the rest of the claims sound like crap too. Fiat 'name only' assets? They trying to claim they can offer actual USD in a decentralized manner or something?And I'm pretty sure price feeding has been proven necessary...the market just doesn't work otherwise (at least for now).I call shenanigans.
...the BitAssets of BitsharesX, but done right (no soviet-style price fixing, or fiat 'name only' assets, and no swapping out the tried-and-true security model with what someone had for breakfast today)...