The big question

[oldman]

With stable tech and good marketing BTS will attract billions of investment over the next two or three years.

If the tech is not superseded by something better, which DPOS kinda makes impossible, global adoption could conceivably push BTS to become the first trillion-dollar crypto.

A trillion dollar market cap for BTS is not so far flung as it sounds.

I like how you said stable tech.  The newest whiz bang features aren't as important as solving a problem, proper marketing, stability and making sure it's easy for different segments to intuitively understand their specific client.

Couldn't agree more.

With financial tools folks just need simple and reliable; nothing should inform the design and code more than ease of use and uptime.

[hpenvy]

With stable tech and good marketing BTS will attract billions of investment over the next two or three years.

If the tech is not superseded by something better, which DPOS kinda makes impossible, global adoption could conceivably push BTS to become the first trillion-dollar crypto.

A trillion dollar market cap for BTS is not so far flung as it sounds.

I like how you said stable tech.  The newest whiz bang features aren't as important as solving a problem, proper marketing, stability and making sure it's easy for different segments to intuitively understand their specific client.

[oldman]

With stable tech and good marketing BTS will attract billions of investment over the next two or three years.

If the tech is not superseded by something better, which DPOS kinda makes impossible, global adoption could conceivably push BTS to become the first trillion-dollar crypto.

A trillion dollar market cap for BTS is not so far flung as it sounds.

[nomoreheroes7]

Hm...
I should just put some amount of BTSX publicly and post the transaction done from there on publicly.

I too would like to see this. All this shorting stuff hurts my head. Just tell me what to do. 

[merockstar]

Hm...
I should just put some amount of BTSX publicly and post the transaction done from there on publicly.

you mean like let us see the tonyk investment strategy in action?

I think I would benefit from that.

[zerosum]

Hm...
I should just put some amount of BTSX publicly and post the transaction done from there on publicly.

[arhag]

I will say it for a third (and final) time, the necessary soft collateral is about 10 BTSX if you have your  system fully automated. For a manual system 1K to 3.5K BTSX  should do just fine!

First time I heard this claim. But I get what you are saying now. Thanks. You trade off between the amount of soft collateral you need to hold and the number of transactions you to have to submit (and thus transaction fees you need to pay) to cover all of your shorts. Since the transaction fee is so low compared to the sums we are dealing with here, the soft collateral necessary can be very small. Thus, estimating the soft collateral and transaction fees as negligible does give much better results. Adding in the effect of the small amount of soft collateral still necessary and the transaction fees for this process is a fun exercise for another day. And of course more interesting than either of those would be the effect of interest.

I find both calculations ((1)maximizing min soft collateral/tx fees and (2) what are the  implication of interest paid on the total return of this model) interesting and fun 
I will speculate that you do too.

Yup. I do want to add one more thing though. I still wouldn't consider this investment strategy conservative even when ignoring interest. We have seen plenty of times how frequently cryptoassets can drop more than 50% from peak to trough. If your reshorting point ends up near the peak, you could end up losing a large chunk of your stake because you will be forced to cover at a loss. Even worse, the 30 day period means that you can also lose a little bit during the periods when the cryptoasset is relatively stable but has a slight downward slope for a prolonged period of time (months). You have to include the probability of being caught in these unfortunate situations during your shorting interval as part of your estimates on returns if you want to be accurate.

[zerosum]

I will say it for a third (and final) time, the necessary soft collateral is about 10 BTSX if you have your  system fully automated. For a manual system 1K to 3.5K BTSX  should do just fine!

First time I heard this claim. But I get what you are saying now. Thanks. You trade off between the amount of soft collateral you need to hold and the number of transactions you to have to submit (and thus transaction fees you need to pay) to cover all of your shorts. Since the transaction fee is so low compared to the sums we are dealing with here, the soft collateral necessary can be very small. Thus, estimating the soft collateral and transaction fees as negligible does give much better results. Adding in the effect of the small amount of soft collateral still necessary and the transaction fees for this process is a fun exercise for another day. And of course more interesting than either of those would be the effect of interest.

I find both calculations ((1)maximizing min soft collateral/tx fees and (2) what are the  implication of interest paid on the total return of this model) interesting and fun 
I will speculate that you do too.

[arhag]

I will say it for a third (and final) time, the necessary soft collateral is about 10 BTSX if you have your  system fully automated. For a manual system 1K to 3.5K BTSX  should do just fine!

First time I heard this claim. But I get what you are saying now. Thanks. You trade off between the amount of soft collateral you need to hold and the number of transactions you to have to submit (and thus transaction fees you need to pay) to cover all of your shorts. Since the transaction fee is so low compared to the sums we are dealing with here, the soft collateral necessary can be very small. Thus, estimating the soft collateral and transaction fees as negligible does give much better results. Adding in the effect of the small amount of soft collateral still necessary and the transaction fees for this process is a fun exercise for another day. And of course more interesting than either of those would be the effect of interest.

[zerosum]

Short version:[let me know if you think something else not addressed is biggie]
-Current collateral provides security for up to 2.25 price drop - that is enough to not need so smooth growth curve as well as to call the approach rather conservative.
-Interest of 5% annually is small compared to 130x price increase - so yes it is not included in my calculation. But even if I do I do not expect drastic changes. If you think one will need constantly offering 40% interest to place a short order this is a whole nuBit of a game.
-In my calculation I just used voluntarily re-shorting at predetermined increase [I used 33% or 50% - I will check exactly, if you want me to]
-On the soft collateral - we have discussed it once already. You thought it is BS, but in practice you need very insignificant amount for that purpose kept in BTS, if you place correct size-wise orders.

Certainly my calculations could be wrong; I am curious enough about this that I will likely do a more thorough analysis another day. But I am fairly confident that it is almost impossible to get 5x gain through just a shorting strategy over the period of time in which BTS rises from $0.02/BTS to $2.50/BTS.

My formula takes into account the minimum amount of soft collateral necessary to cover the short (unless you want to take your chances and let the DAC do it for you exactly 30 days after you opened the short position, but you are far more likely to end up covering at a bad time in the BTS price with that strategy).
I will say it for a third (and final) time, the necessary soft collateral is about 10 BTSX if you have your  system fully automated. For a manual system 1K to 3.5K BTSX  should do just fine!

The smooth growth curve is more about being able to cover and re-short in a short enough time period. You want to reduce the short interval to increase gains from compounding (that analysis ignores the cost of transaction fees but those are not very significant for reasonable lower bounds on the reshorting interval).
Actually my proposal make no use of this. And this is one of the reasons why I call the approach 'conservative'. (stupid approach is maybe a better term, in this context)

If you have long periods of stagnation along with short bursts in the price, you will end up with less BTS than if the growth curve is smooth. As an example, imagine the growth curve looked like irregular steps where it alternated between being flat for some variable period of time and suddenly jumped up to twice its value. The 130x growth would be reached by ln(130)/ln(2) = 7 doubling jumps. If I had 2.5*X BTS, I could hold 0.5*X BTS as soft collateral and use the remaining 2*X BTS as hard collateral for a short position that held 3*X BTS locked as collateral and owed the network X*p BitUSD (where p was the price in BitUSD/BTS at the time of creating the short). If the price doubled some time later, I could use the 0.5*X BTS to buy X*p BitUSD at the new price of 2*p BitUSD/BTS. Then I could use the X*p BitUSD to cover the short and get back 3*X BTS. I would then have 3/2.5 = 1.2 times the amount of BTS I originally had. If I immediately used my new BTS to redo this process to compound gains, I could get a total multiplicative factor on my original investment of (3/2.5)^(ln(130)/ln(2)) = 1.2^7 = 3.6 (which is less than the 5x I showed was theoretically possible in my previous post). More generally, if I reshort every time the price goes up by a certain fractional amount g (so g = 0.50 for the case of reshorting on 50% gains in price), then the multiplicative factor on the amount of BTS would be f = (3/(2 + 1/(1+g)))^(ln(130)/ln(1 + g)). Notice the theoretical best case is right around 5x, but that is at a point where the reshort interval is so small that the transaction fees can really add up.

I am interested in incorporating interest into my formulas. Not sure how important of a role it will play. It is good but it makes some BIG assumption - invest $1000-$1500, decide right then and now you have lost them, follow the strategy till you reach your goal (or really lose those 1K)

To totally honest - Me too!
But if it is already hard enough to get 5x, it will be even less once the interest is added in. Also, don't be too sure that high interests are unlikely. If this investment strategy really is as good as you are claiming it to be and such a sure thing, everyone will want to get in on it. The market will thus force the interest rate high enough until few people remain who still think that the gains from shorting (with the effect of the high interest factored in) are a great deal.

[arhag]

Short version:[let me know if you think something else not addressed is biggie]
-Current collateral provides security for up to 2.25 price drop - that is enough to not need so smooth growth curve as well as to call the approach rather conservative.
-Interest of 5% annually is small compared to 130x price increase - so yes it is not included in my calculation. But even if I do I do not expect drastic changes. If you think one will need constantly offering 40% interest to place a short order this is a whole nuBit of a game.
-In my calculation I just used voluntarily re-shorting at predetermined increase [I used 33% or 50% - I will check exactly, if you want me to]
-On the soft collateral - we have discussed it once already. You thought it is BS, but in practice you need very insignificant amount for that purpose kept in BTS, if you place correct size-wise orders.

Certainly my calculations could be wrong; I am curious enough about this that I will likely do a more thorough analysis another day. But I am fairly confident that it is almost impossible to get 5x gain through just a shorting strategy over the period of time in which BTS rises from $0.02/BTS to $2.50/BTS.

My formula takes into account the minimum amount of soft collateral necessary to cover the short (unless you want to take your chances and let the DAC do it for you exactly 30 days after you opened the short position, but you are far more likely to end up covering at a bad time in the BTS price with that strategy).

The smooth growth curve is more about being able to cover and re-short in a short enough time period. You want to reduce the short interval to increase gains from compounding (that analysis ignores the cost of transaction fees but those are not very significant for reasonable lower bounds on the reshorting interval). If you have long periods of stagnation along with short bursts in the price, you will end up with less BTS than if the growth curve is smooth. As an example, imagine the growth curve looked like irregular steps where it alternated between being flat for some variable period of time and suddenly jumped up to twice its value. The 130x growth would be reached by ln(130)/ln(2) = 7 doubling jumps. If I had 2.5*X BTS, I could hold 0.5*X BTS as soft collateral and use the remaining 2*X BTS as hard collateral for a short position that held 3*X BTS locked as collateral and owed the network X*p BitUSD (where p was the price in BitUSD/BTS at the time of creating the short). If the price doubled some time later, I could use the 0.5*X BTS to buy X*p BitUSD at the new price of 2*p BitUSD/BTS. Then I could use the X*p BitUSD to cover the short and get back 3*X BTS. I would then have 3/2.5 = 1.2 times the amount of BTS I originally had. If I immediately used my new BTS to redo this process to compound gains, I could get a total multiplicative factor on my original investment of (3/2.5)^(ln(130)/ln(2)) = 1.2^7 = 3.6 (which is less than the 5x I showed was theoretically possible in my previous post). More generally, if I reshort every time the price goes up by a certain fractional amount g (so g = 0.50 for the case of reshorting on 50% gains in price), then the multiplicative factor on the amount of BTS would be f = (3/(2 + 1/(1+g)))^(ln(130)/ln(1 + g)). Notice the theoretical best case is right around 5x, but that is at a point where the reshort interval is so small that the transaction fees can really add up.

I am interested in incorporating interest into my formulas. Not sure how important of a role it will play. But if it is already hard enough to get 5x, it will be even less once the interest is added in. Also, don't be too sure that high interests are unlikely. If this investment strategy really is as good as you are claiming it to be and such a sure thing, everyone will want to get in on it. The market will thus force the interest rate high enough until few people remain who still think that the gains from shorting (with the effect of the high interest factored in) are a great deal.

[zerosum]

Simple facts:
-You need about $1,000 to buy 55,000 BTS as of this writing.
-Let be somewhat conservative and you assume that BTS will only reach the current market cap of BTC (about 5 billion).

-Now assume you have frown those 1K bucks away and you no longer have them.

Following a very conservative investment strategy [that me knowing what you know can formulate for yourself] and pretty much the only assumption being that BTS will appreciate to 5 billion ($2.50/share), when/if it really does you will be a millionaire.

The remaining questions off course are - Does havening 1Mil makes you rich? I do not know. In my view it does not, but most people will also have a very hard time accepting that you are poor.

To make it work in practice it might  take slightly more than $1000, and you might end up with $750K. But $1250-$1500  should do it for sure... and if the general premise did not materialize, you will have a loss of 1.5K USD...

Not following, 55,000 bts at 2.50/bts is $137,500 isn't it?

That would certainly buy me a second chance at life, but thats no million. Am I missing something tony?

I think you missed the now bold part.

You seem to be claiming that you didn't make a math error. Does that mean you are implying that you have a conservative investment strategy that can grow 55,000 BTS by more than 7x into 400,000 BTS?!

While if you assume you are really lucky with BitUSD shorts to always cover and reshort the short position at a profit within the 30 day period (thus compounding the gains), AND you assume the value of BTS in terms of USD grows in a relatively smooth (averaged over a time period of days) exponential growth curve, AND you somehow are able to get away with not paying any interest on any of the shorts despite all the other people who will be desperate to short BitUSD, then you could in theory just barely grow the 80,000 BTS (what $1500 can buy you today) by the 5x necessary to get it to a value of 1 million dollars as the price goes up from its current day price to $2.50/BTS, but that is also assuming you have a reshorting interval that is no more than 1/200 of the total duration it takes for the price to rise to $2.50/BTS (so if it took 2 years, that would be a reshorting interval of roughly half a week) AND that you somehow perfectly keep just enough BTS outside the collateral to buy the BitUSD you need to cover the short but not any more. Obviously, there are so many questionable assumptions here that it is unlikely for someone to get anywhere close to 400,000 BTS with this strategy, and even if someone was lucky enough to be able to, it could not by any means be called a conservative investment strategy.

Maybe my whole shorting guess isn't what you are talking about. So please enlighten us, how exactly do you plan on growing 55,000 BTS into 400,000 BTS?

I tried posting a long response...due to an issue described here: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11252.0
I lost it. I am not typing it again....

Short version:[let me know if you think something else not addressed is biggie]
-Current collateral provides security for up to 2.25 price drop - that is enough to not need so smooth growth curve as well as to call the approach rather conservative.
-Interest of 5% annually is small compared to 130x price increase - so yes it is not included in my calculation. But even if I do I do not expect drastic changes. If you think one will need constantly offering 40% interest to place a short order this is a whole nuBit of a game.
-In my calculation I just used voluntarily re-shorting at predetermined increase [I used 33%]
-On the soft collateral - we have discussed it once already. You thought it is BS, but in practice you need very insignificant amount for that purpose kept in BTS, if you place correct size-wise orders.

Let me know what you want me to address anything further.

@merockstar - arhag wins this mind reading contest. 

[merockstar]

Simple facts:
-You need about $1,000 to buy 55,000 BTS as of this writing.
-Let be somewhat conservative and you assume that BTS will only reach the current market cap of BTC (about 5 billion).

-Now assume you have frown those 1K bucks away and you no longer have them.

Following a very conservative investment strategy [that me knowing what you know can formulate for yourself] and pretty much the only assumption being that BTS will appreciate to 5 billion ($2.50/share), when/if it really does you will be a millionaire.

The remaining questions off course are - Does havening 1Mil makes you rich? I do not know. In my view it does not, but most people will also have a very hard time accepting that you are poor.

To make it work in practice it might  take slightly more than $1000, and you might end up with $750K. But $1250-$1500  should do it for sure... and if the general premise did not materialize, you will have a loss of 1.5K USD...

Not following, 55,000 bts at 2.50/bts is $137,500 isn't it?

That would certainly buy me a second chance at life, but thats no million. Am I missing something tony?

I think you missed the now bold part.

You seem to be claiming that you didn't make a math error. Does that mean you are implying that you have a conservative investment strategy that can grow 55,000 BTS by more than 7x into 400,000 BTS?!

While if you assume you are really lucky with BitUSD shorts to always cover and reshort the short position at a profit within the 30 day period (thus compounding the gains), AND you assume the value of BTS in terms of USD grows in a relatively smooth (averaged over a time period of days) exponential growth curve, AND you somehow are able to get away with not paying any interest on any of the shorts despite all the other people who will be desperate to short BitUSD, then you could in theory just barely grow the 80,000 BTS (what $1500 can buy you today) by the 5x necessary to get it to a value of 1 million dollars as the price goes up from its current day price to $2.50/BTS, but that is also assuming you have a reshorting interval that is no more than 1/200 of the total duration it takes for the price to rise to $2.50/BTS (so if it took 2 years, that would be a reshorting interval of roughly half a week) AND that you somehow perfectly keep just enough BTS outside the collateral to buy the BitUSD you need to cover the short but not any more. Obviously, there are so many questionable assumptions here that it is unlikely for someone to get anywhere close to 400,000 BTS with this strategy, and even if someone was lucky enough to be able to, it could not by any means be called a conservative investment strategy.

Maybe my whole shorting guess isn't what you are talking about. So please enlighten us, how exactly do you plan on growing 55,000 BTS into 400,000 BTS?

I interpreted very conservative investment strategy to be not about shorting, but fiat to btsx.

I took it to mean he was saying to continue to save a small portion portion of my income into it each time.

If it takes long enough to catch on, I'll have a lot more in the end. Keep buying on dips, holding through bubbles, lowering my average buy in by cost averaging.

But unfortunately you might give me too much credit Tony. What did you mean, am I even close?

[arhag]

Simple facts:
-You need about $1,000 to buy 55,000 BTS as of this writing.
-Let be somewhat conservative and you assume that BTS will only reach the current market cap of BTC (about 5 billion).

-Now assume you have frown those 1K bucks away and you no longer have them.

Following a very conservative investment strategy [that me knowing what you know can formulate for yourself] and pretty much the only assumption being that BTS will appreciate to 5 billion ($2.50/share), when/if it really does you will be a millionaire.

The remaining questions off course are - Does havening 1Mil makes you rich? I do not know. In my view it does not, but most people will also have a very hard time accepting that you are poor.

To make it work in practice it might  take slightly more than $1000, and you might end up with $750K. But $1250-$1500  should do it for sure... and if the general premise did not materialize, you will have a loss of 1.5K USD...

Not following, 55,000 bts at 2.50/bts is $137,500 isn't it?

That would certainly buy me a second chance at life, but thats no million. Am I missing something tony?

I think you missed the now bold part.

You seem to be claiming that you didn't make a math error. Does that mean you are implying that you have a conservative investment strategy that can grow 55,000 BTS by more than 7x into 400,000 BTS?!

While if you assume you are really lucky with BitUSD shorts to always cover and reshort the short position at a profit within the 30 day period (thus compounding the gains), AND you assume the value of BTS in terms of USD grows in a relatively smooth (averaged over a time period of days) exponential growth curve, AND you somehow are able to get away with not paying any interest on any of the shorts despite all the other people who will be desperate to short BitUSD, then you could in theory just barely grow the 80,000 BTS (what $1500 can buy you today) by the 5x necessary to get it to a value of 1 million dollars as the price goes up from its current day price to $2.50/BTS, but that is also assuming you have a reshorting interval that is no more than 1/200 of the total duration it takes for the price to rise to $2.50/BTS (so if it took 2 years, that would be a reshorting interval of roughly half a week) AND that you somehow perfectly keep just enough BTS outside the collateral to buy the BitUSD you need to cover the short but not any more. Obviously, there are so many questionable assumptions here that it is unlikely for someone to get anywhere close to 400,000 BTS with this strategy, and even if someone was lucky enough to be able to, it could not by any means be called a conservative investment strategy.

Maybe my whole shorting guess isn't what you are talking about. So please enlighten us, how exactly do you plan on growing 55,000 BTS into 400,000 BTS?

[merockstar]

Simple facts:
-You need about $1,000 to buy 55,000 BTS as of this writing.
-Let be somewhat conservative and you assume that BTS will only reach the current market cap of BTC (about 5 billion).

-Now assume you have frown those 1K bucks away and you no longer have them.

Following a very conservative investment strategy [that me knowing what you know can formulate for yourself] and pretty much the only assumption being that BTS will appreciate to 5 billion ($2.50/share), when/if it really does you will be a millionaire.

The remaining questions off course are - Does havening 1Mil makes you rich? I do not know. In my view it does not, but most people will also have a very hard time accepting that you are poor.

To make it work in practice it might  take slightly more than $1000, and you might end up with $750K. But $1250-$1500  should do it for sure... and if the general premise did not materialize, you will have a loss of 1.5K USD...

Not following, 55,000 bts at 2.50/bts is $137,500 isn't it?

That would certainly buy me a second chance at life, but thats no million. Am I missing something tony?

I think you missed the now bold part.

I did.

I understand now.

Thanks for the encouragement tony, I will indeed keep at it!

[zerosum]

Still to come, after a message from our sponsors: tonyk's exclusive insider look at how to turn $137K into $1 Million. You won't want to miss this!

BitShares:

Be Your Own Bank

Beyond the Bank

Better Than a Bank

Reimagine Your Bank

You Just Robbed the Bank!

Join the Bank Robbers!

Like a Bank, Only Better

Bank on Yourself (somebody must have TM'ed this one already?)

Screw Offshore; Hide Your Money on the Blockchain!

Banks Are So Yesterday

Just turn your $137K into $1 Million

[donkeypong]

Still to come, after a message from our sponsors: tonyk's exclusive insider look at how to turn $137K into $1 Million. You won't want to miss this!

[zerosum]

Simple facts:
-You need about $1,000 to buy 55,000 BTS as of this writing.
-Let be somewhat conservative and you assume that BTS will only reach the current market cap of BTC (about 5 billion).

-Now assume you have frown those 1K bucks away and you no longer have them.

Following a very conservative investment strategy [that me knowing what you know can formulate for yourself] and pretty much the only assumption being that BTS will appreciate to 5 billion ($2.50/share), when/if it really does you will be a millionaire.

The remaining questions off course are - Does havening 1Mil makes you rich? I do not know. In my view it does not, but most people will also have a very hard time accepting that you are poor.

To make it work in practice it might  take slightly more than $1000, and you might end up with $750K. But $1250-$1500  should do it for sure... and if the general premise did not materialize, you will have a loss of 1.5K USD...

Not following, 55,000 bts at 2.50/bts is $137,500 isn't it?

That would certainly buy me a second chance at life, but thats no million. Am I missing something tony?

I think you missed the now bold part.

[CLains]

BitShares will grow faster the higher it goes. 101 employees are on standby. 

[TurkeyLeg]

Secondly, it will take a very long time. It took Bitcoin four years to get where it is today. Unless you're the dude with 20million BTS (and are thus already rich) it's going to take a price of 50-100 dollars a BTS to get most of us rich. That would be a market cap in the trillions. To achieve that we need major worldwide adoption.

I'm still not sure I follow your math.  If BTS reaches 50 dollars per share that would mean someone with 1 million BTS would be worth 50 million dollars.  Surely that is not the lower limit by which you define being rich?   At 1 dollar per share, that same person would be a millionaire.  At 2 dollars per share, the person with 500,000 BTS is a millionaire.  At 4 dollars a share, someone with 250,000 would be a millionaire.  At 10 dollars per share, someone with 100,000 would be a millionaire.  I have no idea what the value will end up being, although I think dollar parity is not unreasonable at all.  All I'm saying is that there's a huge middle area of wealth creation that you seem to be glossing over should the price get up to dollar parity and beyond.  I would imagine most people on this board (due to being early adopters) have 100,000 BTS or more.  If at 10 dollars everyone on this board would be a millionaire, where do you get the number that it would have to be 50-100 dollars in order to reach that state?

It will only take $4 USD/BTS for me to hit 7 digits :-) That qualifies as rich in my neck of the woods :-).

[merockstar]

Simple facts:
-You need about $1,000 to buy 55,000 BTS as of this writing.
-Let be somewhat conservative and you assume that BTS will only reach the current market cap of BTC (about 5 billion).

-Now assume you have frown those 1K bucks away and you no longer have them.

Following a very conservative investment strategy [that me knowing what you know can formulate for yourself] and pretty much the only assumption being that BTS will appreciate to 5 billion ($2.50/share), when/if it really does you will be a millionaire.

The remaining questions off course are - Does havening 1Mil makes you rich? I do not know. In my view it does not, but most people will also have a very hard time accepting that you are poor.

To make it work in practice it might  take slightly more than $1000, and you might end up with $750K. But $1250-$1500  should do it for sure... and if the general premise did not materialize, you will have a loss of 1.5K USD...

Not following, 55,000 bts at 2.50/bts is $137,500 isn't it?

That would certainly buy me a second chance at life, but thats no million. Am I missing something tony?

[eagleeye]

if we want to get above bitcoins 5 billion market cap we need to bring in new people.

-John Underwood will help with the remittance industry in Philippines.
-Getting new users through funneling online Internet users is the key.  Offline people will be the last adopters.  This means anything offline in the first world like a credit card is not at the moment.
-Bringing in new markets what bitmarket is doing ie porn industry is good...also casinos will be good too.
-The web wallet.  This is the key to everything, with the web wallet mass adoption happens as it becomes like email.

[Frodo]

Secondly, it will take a very long time. It took Bitcoin four years to get where it is today. Unless you're the dude with 20million BTS (and are thus already rich) it's going to take a price of 50-100 dollars a BTS to get most of us rich. That would be a market cap in the trillions. To achieve that we need major worldwide adoption.

I'm still not sure I follow your math.  If BTS reaches 50 dollars per share that would mean someone with 1 million BTS would be worth 50 million dollars.  Surely that is not the lower limit by which you define being rich?   At 1 dollar per share, that same person would be a millionaire.  At 2 dollars per share, the person with 500,000 BTS is a millionaire.  At 4 dollars a share, someone with 250,000 would be a millionaire.  At 10 dollars per share, someone with 100,000 would be a millionaire.  I have no idea what the value will end up being, although I think dollar parity is not unreasonable at all.  All I'm saying is that there's a huge middle area of wealth creation that you seem to be glossing over should the price get up to dollar parity and beyond.  I would imagine most people on this board (due to being early adopters) have 100,000 BTS or more.  If at 10 dollars everyone on this board would be a millionaire, where do you get the number that it would have to be 50-100 dollars in order to reach that state?

I'm imagining the average holdings of everybody on this board to be lower than 100,000.

Look, it makes me feel better, alright?

Simple facts:
-You need about $1,000 to buy 55,000 BTS as of this writing.
-Let be somewhat conservative and you assume that BTS will only reach the current market cap of BTC (about 5 billion).

-Now assume you have frown those 1K bucks away and you no longer have them.

Following a very conservative investment strategy [that me knowing what you know can formulate for yourself] and pretty much the only assumption being that BTS will appreciate to 5 billion ($2.50/share), when/if it really does you will be a millionaire.

The remaining questions off course are - Does havening 1Mil makes you rich? I do not know. In my view it does not, but most people will also have a very hard time accepting that you are poor.

To make it work in practice it might  take slightly more than $1000, and you might end up with $750K. But $1250-$1500  should do it for sure... and if the general premise did not materialize, you will have a loss of 1.5K USD...

I don't get it. Wouldn't your 55,000BTS be worth like 100k USD at bitcoin cap?

So you would need something like 10k USD investment right now to get to that magic million at bitcoin cap.

[zerosum]

Secondly, it will take a very long time. It took Bitcoin four years to get where it is today. Unless you're the dude with 20million BTS (and are thus already rich) it's going to take a price of 50-100 dollars a BTS to get most of us rich. That would be a market cap in the trillions. To achieve that we need major worldwide adoption.

I'm still not sure I follow your math.  If BTS reaches 50 dollars per share that would mean someone with 1 million BTS would be worth 50 million dollars.  Surely that is not the lower limit by which you define being rich?   At 1 dollar per share, that same person would be a millionaire.  At 2 dollars per share, the person with 500,000 BTS is a millionaire.  At 4 dollars a share, someone with 250,000 would be a millionaire.  At 10 dollars per share, someone with 100,000 would be a millionaire.  I have no idea what the value will end up being, although I think dollar parity is not unreasonable at all.  All I'm saying is that there's a huge middle area of wealth creation that you seem to be glossing over should the price get up to dollar parity and beyond.  I would imagine most people on this board (due to being early adopters) have 100,000 BTS or more.  If at 10 dollars everyone on this board would be a millionaire, where do you get the number that it would have to be 50-100 dollars in order to reach that state?

I'm imagining the average holdings of everybody on this board to be lower than 100,000.

Look, it makes me feel better, alright?

Simple facts:
-You need about $1,000 to buy 55,000 BTS as of this writing.
-Let be somewhat conservative and you assume that BTS will only reach the current market cap of BTC (about 5 billion).

-Now assume you have frown those 1K bucks away and you no longer have them.

Following a very conservative investment strategy [that me knowing what you know can formulate for yourself] and pretty much the only assumption being that BTS will appreciate to 5 billion ($2.50/share), when/if it really does you will be a millionaire.

The remaining questions off course are - Does havening 1Mil makes you rich? I do not know. In my view it does not, but most people will also have a very hard time accepting that you are poor.

To make it work in practice it might  take slightly more than $1000, and you might end up with $750K. But $1250-$1500  should do it for sure... and if the general premise did not materialize, you will have a loss of 1.5K USD...

[Ander]

Stronger hands = quicker appreciation.

During the post-merger dump of BTSX, a LOT of weak hands sold to strong hands. 

We are in a very good place right now, imo.  The bitshares community is TINY compared to where we will be if marketing starts to bring in lots of new people.

Right now having a million bitshares is totally normal for us forum-goers, but if the size of our community is to grow that cannot continue.


If the marketing plan works, then soon all of us early adopters will seem like whales in comparison to the incoming hordes who are happy to have their 10k bitshares.

[islandking]

It's sad expectation management is not taught at school  . I have been crypto obsessed for 2 months now, and already invested more than I should have... but I see it as a "50% probability I'll lose everything I invested, 50% I'll get rich". Every new info I get, every mumble session or hint by BM or Brian grow my confidence in it. I don't trade, I just stockpile.

1$ per BTS in the next two years would be +5000% at current price... that's a hell of an investment, and it's completely plausible. I'll consider myself rich at 1$ .

That is exactly my mindset. I am fine investing a little bit into it with the potential to lose it all or get rich. In my opinion 2 things will happen with BTS.

Either:
1) It will die and fail
2) It will change the world of banking, finance, business, and contracts.

If we all work hard together as a community we can help it grow a lot faster with marketing and word of mouth.

[inarizushi]

It's sad expectation management is not taught at school  . I have been crypto obsessed for 2 months now, and already invested more than I should have... but I see it as a "50% probability I'll lose everything I invested, 50% I'll get rich". Every new info I get, every mumble session or hint by BM or Brian grow my confidence in it. I don't trade, I just stockpile.

1$ per BTS in the next two years would be +5000% at current price... that's a hell of an investment, and it's completely plausible. I'll consider myself rich at 1$ .

[merockstar]

I'm imagining the average holdings of everybody on this board to be lower than 100,000.

Look, it makes me feel better, alright?

Results of my unscientific poll:
http://www.polljunkie.com/poll/ebsiyo/bts-stake-survey/view

Your link led me to a screen with "Loading," that never goes away (maybe some issue with my browser? I hit temporarily allow all in noscript). I tried removing the "view" part of the URL and got an invalid link.

[fluxer555]

I'm imagining the average holdings of everybody on this board to be lower than 100,000.

Look, it makes me feel better, alright?

Results of my unscientific poll:
http://www.polljunkie.com/poll/ebsiyo/bts-stake-survey/view

[merockstar]

Secondly, it will take a very long time. It took Bitcoin four years to get where it is today. Unless you're the dude with 20million BTS (and are thus already rich) it's going to take a price of 50-100 dollars a BTS to get most of us rich. That would be a market cap in the trillions. To achieve that we need major worldwide adoption.

Actually, assuming BTS supply maxes out around say 3 billion total, a price of 100 dollars would require a $300 billion market cap, not trillions. But you're right, you will need to be a strong hand, and it will take time and a lot of explosive price action along the way. I'm ready for it, and can't wait. Hodl to the death.

Valid point, I suppose it depends on how much of the supply is available (how many strong hands there are).

Stronger hands = quicker appreciation.

[nomoreheroes7]

Secondly, it will take a very long time. It took Bitcoin four years to get where it is today. Unless you're the dude with 20million BTS (and are thus already rich) it's going to take a price of 50-100 dollars a BTS to get most of us rich. That would be a market cap in the trillions. To achieve that we need major worldwide adoption.

Actually, assuming BTS supply maxes out around say 3 billion total, a price of 100 dollars would require a $300 billion market cap, not trillions. But you're right, you will need to be a strong hand, and it will take time and a lot of explosive price action along the way. I'm ready for it, and can't wait. Hodl to the death.

[merockstar]

Secondly, it will take a very long time. It took Bitcoin four years to get where it is today. Unless you're the dude with 20million BTS (and are thus already rich) it's going to take a price of 50-100 dollars a BTS to get most of us rich. That would be a market cap in the trillions. To achieve that we need major worldwide adoption.

I'm still not sure I follow your math.  If BTS reaches 50 dollars per share that would mean someone with 1 million BTS would be worth 50 million dollars.  Surely that is not the lower limit by which you define being rich?   At 1 dollar per share, that same person would be a millionaire.  At 2 dollars per share, the person with 500,000 BTS is a millionaire.  At 4 dollars a share, someone with 250,000 would be a millionaire.  At 10 dollars per share, someone with 100,000 would be a millionaire.  I have no idea what the value will end up being, although I think dollar parity is not unreasonable at all.  All I'm saying is that there's a huge middle area of wealth creation that you seem to be glossing over should the price get up to dollar parity and beyond.  I would imagine most people on this board (due to being early adopters) have 100,000 BTS or more.  If at 10 dollars everyone on this board would be a millionaire, where do you get the number that it would have to be 50-100 dollars in order to reach that state?

I'm imagining the average holdings of everybody on this board to be lower than 100,000.

Look, it makes me feel better, alright?

[evolvo]

Secondly, it will take a very long time. It took Bitcoin four years to get where it is today. Unless you're the dude with 20million BTS (and are thus already rich) it's going to take a price of 50-100 dollars a BTS to get most of us rich. That would be a market cap in the trillions. To achieve that we need major worldwide adoption.

I'm still not sure I follow your math.  If BTS reaches 50 dollars per share that would mean someone with 1 million BTS would be worth 50 million dollars.  Surely that is not the lower limit by which you define being rich?   At 1 dollar per share, that same person would be a millionaire.  At 2 dollars per share, the person with 500,000 BTS is a millionaire.  At 4 dollars a share, someone with 250,000 would be a millionaire.  At 10 dollars per share, someone with 100,000 would be a millionaire.  I have no idea what the value will end up being, although I think dollar parity is not unreasonable at all.  All I'm saying is that there's a huge middle area of wealth creation that you seem to be glossing over should the price get up to dollar parity and beyond.  I would imagine most people on this board (due to being early adopters) have 100,000 BTS or more.  If at 10 dollars everyone on this board would be a millionaire, where do you get the number that it would have to be 50-100 dollars in order to reach that state?

[merockstar]

Stress free recipe :
1) buy a shitload of BTS.
2) coldstore
3) sleep well
4) When you're able to pay cam whores with some bitUSD, you're rich !

It will take either a lot of Bitshares or a very high market cap to be rich. Maybe the guy with 20 million Bitshares will be rich.

Thank you for approaching this with a level head. It bothers me to see so many people here who think this is going to make them rich.

Is there a chance it can? Sure.

Judging by how useful DACs can be, I'd even go so far as to say that it's a pretty damn good chance.

But first you have to be patient and sit through up after and down after down without cashing out.

When it goes past ten, you know you're going to get sick to your stomach if you the price starts dropping temporarily. You'd need to be a super strong hand.

Secondly, it will take a very long time. It took Bitcoin four years to get where it is today. Unless you're the dude with 20million BTS (and are thus already rich) it's going to take a price of 50-100 dollars a BTS to get most of us rich. That would be a market cap in the trillions. To achieve that we need major worldwide adoption.

Major worldwide adoption could be hindered by a competitor with a better marketing strategy, or by governments unanimously lowering the clamps, or by some unforeseen failure in DPOS, or a war in which EMPs get deployed, and god knows what else.

I'm not saying it can't make you wealthy. If you hold, and all goes as planned, it just might.

But what I'm saying is that it's important that we manage our expectations.

[Chuckone]

lol @ anyone thinking that achieving at a minimum Bitcoin's market cap is all that unreasonable...

I swear some of you don't understand the mind boggling potential of all this.

Also, I consider 1 million USD to be rich. At that much money I could retire before I'm 30 and live largely off the BitUSD yield. Would probably need at least a few million to retire comfortably though...

I know that if it gets adopted by the masses the Bitcoin market cap will only be a milestone in the steep price increase of BTS. I don't believe 5billions is so unreasonable. But Bitshares is still a long long way from that market cap (it would need to increase approximately x125), and I prefer to be realistic and not inflate too much my expectations.

Anyway, I'm not selling anything for the next few years, so we'll see then!

 But I'm pragmatic and reasonable, and probably cash in part of my investment before it hits 10$/BTS.

[donkeypong]

There's no reason that BTS shouldn't reach Bitcoin.

[nomoreheroes7]

lol @ anyone thinking that achieving at a minimum Bitcoin's market cap is all that unreasonable...

I swear some of you don't understand the mind boggling potential of all this.

Also, I consider 1 million USD to be rich. At that much money I could retire before I'm 30 and live largely off the BitUSD yield. Would probably need at least a few million to retire comfortably though...

[Chuckone]

If it reaches the current 5 Billion market cap that Bitcoin has, which I think is quite reasonable, each Bitshare will be between 1-2 dollars.  I don't think you would need 20 million BTS to be rich off that.  I suppose it depends on what you define as rich but I would imagine being a millionaire would qualify, no?

You're right, it all depends on how much is required to be declared "rich".

Personally I would do well with a few million dollars

I don't believe Bitshares will do that for me though! But nontheless, it would be my best investment EVER if the market cap ever reaches Bitcoin's current market cap.

[evolvo]

If it reaches the current 5 Billion market cap that Bitcoin has, which I think is quite reasonable, each Bitshare will be between 1-2 dollars.  I don't think you would need 20 million BTS to be rich off that.  I suppose it depends on what you define as rich but I would imagine being a millionaire would qualify, no?

[Ander]

Bitshares is currently up 38% in the past 10 days.  Yes, its down today while bitcoin is up, but so far in november it has been going up.

[Chuckone]

Stress free recipe :
1) buy a shitload of BTS.
2) coldstore
3) sleep well
4) When you're able to pay cam whores with some bitUSD, you're rich !

It will take either a lot of Bitshares or a very high market cap to be rich. Maybe the guy with 20 million Bitshares will be rich.

Yep, only a handful will get rich with Bitshares, even if it does go to the moon. And the guy with 20 million Bitshares is already rich IMO. Not because of the 20M shares, but because he's able to invest so much liquidity in such a high risk endeavor. Being ready to lose that much money in one investment shows he has means most of us don't have.

[wuyanren]

yi de yi shou hao yin a！lou shang de

[wuyanren]

Intended to have a good hand with

[luckybit]

Stress free recipe :
1) buy a shitload of BTS.
2) coldstore
3) sleep well
4) When you're able to pay cam whores with some bitUSD, you're rich !

It will take either a lot of Bitshares or a very high market cap to be rich. Maybe the guy with 20 million Bitshares will be rich.

[inarizushi]

Stress free recipe :
1) buy a shitload of BTS.
2) coldstore
3) sleep well
4) When you're able to pay cam whores with some bitUSD, you're rich !

[Chuckone]

See so long quotes, suddenly found that bitcoins up, bitshares will fall. If bitcoin fell, more bit dropping. Then came the question, under what circumstances, bitshares will rise?

Bitshares will rise when a fully featured client is up and running, the big marketing push begins and starts to give results and when the on/off-ramps are setup. This will increase Bitshares adoption and will drive up the price.

Right now Bitshares has value, and it's valued according to the number of people using it as well as speculation. The product is pretty much unknown to the world. But it will change, soon, and when people start to realize how game-changing it is... Well, we'll see!

[wuyanren]

See so long quotes, suddenly found that bitcoins up, bitshares will fall. If bitcoin fell, more bit dropping. Then came the question, under what circumstances, bitshares will rise?