Bitshares price discussion

[tonyk]

Bytemaster, I do think it might be worth having you experiment with polo with smaller amounts of bts, because you could then get experience with the polo margin system, which works really well, and implement a bitshares margin system that does the same thing. 

I just dont want to see out lead dev gambling all his bts away on margin.  Remember, a bunch of people here thought they could do this and make money, and they lost all or most of their bts instead.

I was talking about small amounts as well...like 30-40Mil not more. 

well
 https://blockchain.info/address/1FeexV6bAHb8ybZjqQMjJrcCrHGW9sb6uF

[brads]

I think this is not a one man task. Don't ask BM to transfer his BTS to polo, every BTS supporter should margin buy a small amount of its BTS safely. As I said, I think an estimated liquidation price around 100 sat is almost risk free, and loan fees are negligible. You even can put a buy lower than current price 600 sat), just to increase buy orders sum.

My 2 BTS

[Ander]

Bytemaster, I do think it might be worth having you experiment with polo with smaller amounts of bts, because you could then get experience with the polo margin system, which works really well, and implement a bitshares margin system that does the same thing. 

I just dont want to see out lead dev gambling all his bts away on margin.  Remember, a bunch of people here thought they could do this and make money, and they lost all or most of their bts instead.

[kuro112]

I do not want Bytemaster risking all his BTS as collateral in an attempt to drive up the price, probably resulting in peopel dumping on him and then him getting margin called, and all his BTS being liquidated.


If bytemaster had 250 btc and was going to buy and hold BTS with it not on margin that would be amazing.  But him gambling all his BTS and losing it just like various forum members did that you can see in this thread, would be the absolute death of the project.


Also you must understand the panic that would be caused by bytemaster transferring 75M bts to poloniex, visible on open ledger.  A bunch of traders would think the lead dev had given up on the project and was cashing out, and the price would go to nothing.

BM alone does not control the fate of BTS, your right that him moving funds around might cause panic but in the end, they are his to liquidate as he sees fit, if a margin call were to happen or he were to actually bail, a number of other core community devs (including freebie) would no doubt be willing to step in and help out wherever needed, not saying this wouldn't hurt bts but look at its price right now, it doesn't really matter what happens to it as long as the core backers understand this product is going somewhere and do not panic.

[tonyk]

I do not want Bytemaster risking all his BTS as collateral in an attempt to drive up the price, probably resulting in peopel dumping on him and then him getting margin called, and all his BTS being liquidated.


If bytemaster had 250 btc and was going to buy and hold BTS with it not on margin that would be amazing.  But him gambling all his BTS and losing it just like various forum members did that you can see in this thread, would be the absolute death of the project.


Also you must understand the panic that would be caused by bytemaster transferring 75M bts to poloniex, visible on open ledger.  A bunch of traders would think the lead dev had given up on the project and was cashing out, and the price would go to nothing.

He has several times more BTS on polo than what FMV transferred there....also shorting whatever on the dex itself is not exactly riskless, I see your point though..

[Ander]

I do not want Bytemaster risking all his BTS as collateral in an attempt to drive up the price, probably resulting in peopel dumping on him and then him getting margin called, and all his BTS being liquidated.


If bytemaster had 250 btc and was going to buy and hold BTS with it not on margin that would be amazing.  But him gambling all his BTS and losing it just like various forum members did that you can see in this thread, would be the absolute death of the project.


Also you must understand the panic that would be caused by bytemaster transferring 75M bts to poloniex, visible on open ledger.  A bunch of traders would think the lead dev had given up on the project and was cashing out, and the price would go to nothing.

[tonyk]

Well a 250 BTC buy would push the price up to 1700 sat...I imagine that would do something heh.

Do it BM! We'll be rooting for ya.  .

Yeah... if I only had 250 BTC     I would have to margin my BTS and with my trading luck it would absolutely backfire.

You realize that on polo you can use BTS as collateral to by BTS on margin, right?

Whatever Ander says about margin trading is only partially correct. If you borrow up to[but not more than] 50% of your collateral one is pretty safe. I have never been called doing it.

Bytemaster, do not margin your BTS on polo.
This is literally exactly what caused a bunch of people here to get margin called and lose all their BTS. 

You will lose it if you try, and then we will have a lead developer who lost all his BTS, and when you get margin called it will take BTS down to zero.

The main reason that BTS price dropped so low is that a bunch of community members lost all their BTS and all of that supply is now floating around out there in the hands of traders who dont really want it, who instead want BTC back.


If you margin your BTS on polo it will LITERALLY end this project.

What you are saying is you do not want whales supporting the price, only whales dumping on BTS?
and as brads said above it can be done with much lower % like 10%.

[brads]

You can margin call with your own BTS, this is what I did just now.

For example, make a 100 000 BTS deposit and you can margin call (long in my case). Just be very careful to have a large marge (Est. Liquidation Price 175 in my case).

This is the way I found to buy BTS with no money. If you do it cleverly (say buy 10 000 BTS for a deposit of 100 000 BTS), it should be ok. If every BTS holder do it margin dumpers are dead.

[Ander]

Well a 250 BTC buy would push the price up to 1700 sat...I imagine that would do something heh.

Do it BM! We'll be rooting for ya.  .

Yeah... if I only had 250 BTC     I would have to margin my BTS and with my trading luck it would absolutely backfire.

You realize that on polo you can use BTS as collateral to by BTS on margin, right?

Whatever Ander says about margin trading is only partially correct. If you borrow up to[but not more than] 50% of your collateral one is pretty safe. I have never been called doing it.

Bytemaster, do not margin your BTS on polo.
This is literally exactly what caused a bunch of people here to get margin called and lose all their BTS. 

You will lose it if you try, and then we will have a lead developer who lost all his BTS, and when you get margin called it will take BTS down to zero.

The main reason that BTS price dropped so low is that a bunch of community members lost all their BTS and all of that supply is now floating around out there in the hands of traders who dont really want it, who instead want BTC back.


If you margin your BTS on polo it will LITERALLY end this project.

[tonyk]

Well a 250 BTC buy would push the price up to 1700 sat...I imagine that would do something heh.

Do it BM! We'll be rooting for ya.  .

Yeah... if I only had 250 BTC     I would have to margin my BTS and with my trading luck it would absolutely backfire.

You realize that on polo you can use BTS as collateral to by BTS on margin, right?

Whatever Ander says about margin trading is only partially correct. If you borrow up to[but not more than] 50% of your collateral one is pretty safe. I have never been called doing it.

[Ander]

As a note, if you are going to put in 250 btc to support the price, dont just spike it.  There arent any shorts right now to force to cover.

Just put in 10-20 btc a day for a couple weeks and support the price.  That will stabilize us and help the price to begin a new uptrend hopefully.

[bytemaster]

Well a 250 BTC buy would push the price up to 1700 sat...I imagine that would do something heh.

Do it BM! We'll be rooting for ya.  .

Yeah... if I only had 250 BTC     I would have to margin my BTS and with my trading luck it would absolutely backfire.

[Ander]

How much money would it take to margin call the BTS shorts and kick of a short squeeze?
How much money would it take to wipe out the margin longs?

Is there any way to estimate this?

When we are at 3000 satoshi, about 200 btc in a market buy couldve margin called every short and spiked us to about 5000.  But it would have come back down, it just wouldve ruined htsoe shorts and given free btc to some bts holders who sold.

Right now there arent any bts shorts anymore, they all covered on the drop. 


To margin call all the longs, it depends on whether anyone is long at any given time, but basically all it takes is a market dump of about 5M bts onto polo, and you begin a cascade margin call that wipes everyone out, just as has happened a half dozen times so far during the decline.

It seems like all of this margin trading is just begging for a whale to clean up, and it appears that is what is going on.

Thats exactly what has happened.
Our community got crushed by some whales who margin called a bunch of us.  We didnt have enough BTC left at the top to margin call them when they were shorting sadly.  (But I am sure we did margin call some shorts at least three times on the way up form 1400 to 3000). 

[nomoreheroes7]

Well a 250 BTC buy would push the price up to 1700 sat...I imagine that would do something heh.

Do it BM! We'll be rooting for ya.  .

[bytemaster]

How much money would it take to margin call the BTS shorts and kick of a short squeeze?
How much money would it take to wipe out the margin longs?

Is there any way to estimate this?

It seems like all of this margin trading is just begging for a whale to clean up, and it appears that is what is going on.

I just never got around to figuring out how whales make money via manipulation.  It seems very risky.  If you were a whale with 250 BTC what would you do to profit from all of this?  (Aside from the obvious margin long BTS )

Is 250 BTC even enough to do anything meaningful?   Or do you need more like 1000 BTC.   Given the size of the BTS order books, 250 BTC would be 2x the current buy side.