Author Topic: Bitshares price discussion  (Read 519210 times)

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Offline EstefanTT

Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3150 on: September 15, 2016, 11:14:51 am »
You forget that smartcoins uses collateral in BTS. The need for stable crypto asset will rise and these markets will grow.
BlockPay will probably help with that.
Each BitUSD is 2$ locked in BTS.
One million BitUSD in circulation means 2 millions $ in BTS bought. How much do you think the bts price would increase with ppl buying for 2 million $ of BTS ?

The plateform is perfect for creating all kind of index, baskets, ... which will also contribute at locking more collateral.

With a good commercialisation, I'm conffident that bittwenty could bring signigicant value to BTS.

The referral system may also take off later when we reach critical mass. That will also bring more fees.

Stealth transfers will also bring more fee to the system.

The other features still to be implemented ( as the bond market ) will also produce lots of fees.

There is also the unknows. Anytime, a new company can implement itself on top of BitShares and develop a new feature using the FBA.

IMO, your view on the BTS potential is too pessimistic.



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So here is the problem... You need to find people willing to create bitUSD.  No one has figured it out yet.  The only reason to do that would be that you think the value of BTS will rise vs bitUSD.  If BTS guaranteed you part of the profits, the value of BTS would go up.  This is how stocks work, the value generally increases as the companies profits increase.

Unfortunately there is no real plan to make BTS profitable.  The governance is poor and decisions on fee's are often deadlocked.  A lot of what you have in your post would be great to have (bond market, stealth, referral system) but the referral system was killed and the bond market is barely and idea in someones head.  I know blockpay is working on stealth, but they are going to be the ones reaping the fee rewards.  Exactly why I'm saying it's the companies who use the BTS platform that will get rich.  Not the BTS shareholders.  BTS shareholders are basically securing the companies blockchain transactions for free.  Not a profitable business model.

I'm not saying the potential of the BTS platform is bleak.  I'm saying if you are a BTS shareholder, the potential of the token value increasing is bleak.

Surely, all other things being equal, if there is more real-world usage of the platform (which also means people are trading/spending/hodling smartcoins), there has to be more collateral locked up, which means a higher BTS/FIAT price.

To the best of my present understanding, the above is irrefutable.

If so, we need to think what sort of initiatives can bring a wider range of users into the system.

I have some ideas, but don't see any of them taking off until we have STEALTH - it could be my bias, though, but me personally, I'm not going to be paying for anything with Smartcoins that's tied to anything in my name, that's a tool of oppression and not a tool of liberation.

As for bringing more traders in, I have a really hard time believing the platform will be attractive without, at least, stop-loss orders.

Stop-profit would also be nice.

I think those two are severely under-rated as a reason for serious traders avoiding bitshares right now.
BlockPay should have Stealth ready soon. Also they will help to kick start the MPA markets as merchands will consifer this option.

More initiative as BlockPay is probably the way to go to increase the depth of these markets.

I a little surprise that Ronny doesn't have implemented already stop loss and profit in OpenLedger. OL core is the trading plateform, it should have the very minimum features of any decent trading plateform.
This is probably discouraging lots of traders. Will see how it is going, I remember him saying something about beeing working on the GUI.
Bit20, the cryptocurrency index fund http://www.bittwenty.com
(BitShares French ConneXion - www.bitsharesfcx.com)

Offline santaclause102

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3151 on: September 15, 2016, 11:41:57 am »
I don't understand how this is a "trading discussion" and no one is mentioning that BTS just reversed the downward trading channel.

Because its hard to care abut BTS when literally every other crypto in the universe has outperformed it over the past 18 months.  BTS doesnt go up.  Everything else has some huge pumps sometimes, even total shitcoins.

The speculative money that is going to be made in the BTS ecosystem is going to be by the companies using the UIA system, not BTS.  BTS has no plan on ever making money.

In case you were implying that companies and individuals create UIAs and have them traded, don't you forget then that the only viable way to do that is to have ONE token which all these UIAs trade against. That token should not be an UIO/UIA itself in order to reduce the risk that the issuer defaults on it. The only candidates I can think of are BTS and BitUSD (of BitCNY for Chinese market UIAs).... which creates demand for BTS....

This is where most of the demand for XRP (Ripple) comes from, respectively where the speculative value of XRP lies... that is not mainly with the fees that are paid in XRP.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 11:43:40 am by santaclause102 »

Offline karnal

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3152 on: September 15, 2016, 03:37:17 pm »
I a little surprise that Ronny doesn't have implemented already stop loss and profit in OpenLedger. OL core is the trading plateform, it should have the very minimum features of any decent trading plateform.
This is probably discouraging lots of traders. Will see how it is going, I remember him saying something about beeing working on the GUI.

In my understanding support for this would have to be baked in graphene itself (is it already there?) -- how else would orders be cancelled while offline?

Offline mr-whitekey

Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3153 on: September 15, 2016, 04:14:27 pm »
You forget that smartcoins uses collateral in BTS. The need for stable crypto asset will rise and these markets will grow.
BlockPay will probably help with that.
Each BitUSD is 2$ locked in BTS.
One million BitUSD in circulation means 2 millions $ in BTS bought. How much do you think the bts price would increase with ppl buying for 2 million $ of BTS ?

The plateform is perfect for creating all kind of index, baskets, ... which will also contribute at locking more collateral.

With a good commercialisation, I'm conffident that bittwenty could bring signigicant value to BTS.

The referral system may also take off later when we reach critical mass. That will also bring more fees.

Stealth transfers will also bring more fee to the system.

The other features still to be implemented ( as the bond market ) will also produce lots of fees.

There is also the unknows. Anytime, a new company can implement itself on top of BitShares and develop a new feature using the FBA.

IMO, your view on the BTS potential is too pessimistic.



Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

Unfortunately there is no real plan to make BTS profitable...

I'm not saying the potential of the BTS platform is bleak.  I'm saying if you are a BTS shareholder, the potential of the token value increasing is bleak.

In my understanding there is a reserve pool where these fees go to. Where they are effectively out of the market. This should directly effect the price for each individual bitshare and IS the mechanisms by which value is transferred back to token holds. That correct? So it is not a dividend, but a kinda temporary burn. How temporary depends on the network participants.

Only with the approval of the predefined threshold of BTS token votes will these tokens be paid out (diluting the market). Yet, in theory, this will only be done when those with the most interest in long term value decided to let the network spend these reserve tokens.

Thus, I do not see your point as to the worthlessness of BTS tokens from a fundamental value perspective.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
« Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 04:16:50 pm by mr-whitekey »

Offline KenMonkey

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3154 on: September 18, 2016, 02:32:36 pm »
I guess the USD is over as the worlds reserve currency. Probably for the best as fiat currency is on its last legs. Of course bitUSD has seen a modest rise in supply but....

The supply of (and demand for) bitCNY has QUINTUPLED (5x) since the beginning of this year. This is a great sign for bitshares as it shows more people are trusting the seemingly complicated but actually genius and robust collateral system.
It's especially great news because now $800,000 (5.3m CNY) worth of BTS is collateralising bitCNY.

If this trend continues + Nov. 5 super-halving hype + Blockpay...

If people start believing that the price of BTS is going to rise... it'll boom.

It's just really really annoying that the largest CNY market for bitshares (the DEX) is not displayed on coinmarketcap.com because our block explorer is slightly broken. That's almost $3,000 in volume (on a slow day) that could hugely bump the DEX in the exchanges rankings and bitshares in the volume rankings. Plus it's embarrassing to have a broken block explorer. [member=21903]roadscape[/member]

Offline mr-whitekey

Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3155 on: September 18, 2016, 05:43:09 pm »

The supply of (and demand for) bitCNY has QUINTUPLED (5x) since the beginning of this year. This is a great sign for bitshares as it shows more people are trusting the seemingly complicated but actually genius and robust collateral system.
It's especially great news because now $800,000 (5.3m CNY) worth of BTS is collateralising bitCNY.

[member=21903]roadscape[/member]

Any ideas as to why? Might give us insight how to better support bitUSD.

Offline lil_jay890

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3156 on: September 30, 2016, 03:46:34 am »
You forget that smartcoins uses collateral in BTS. The need for stable crypto asset will rise and these markets will grow.
BlockPay will probably help with that.
Each BitUSD is 2$ locked in BTS.
One million BitUSD in circulation means 2 millions $ in BTS bought. How much do you think the bts price would increase with ppl buying for 2 million $ of BTS ?

The plateform is perfect for creating all kind of index, baskets, ... which will also contribute at locking more collateral.

With a good commercialisation, I'm conffident that bittwenty could bring signigicant value to BTS.

The referral system may also take off later when we reach critical mass. That will also bring more fees.

Stealth transfers will also bring more fee to the system.

The other features still to be implemented ( as the bond market ) will also produce lots of fees.

There is also the unknows. Anytime, a new company can implement itself on top of BitShares and develop a new feature using the FBA.

IMO, your view on the BTS potential is too pessimistic.



Sent from my SM-G900F using Tapatalk

Unfortunately there is no real plan to make BTS profitable...

I'm not saying the potential of the BTS platform is bleak.  I'm saying if you are a BTS shareholder, the potential of the token value increasing is bleak.

In my understanding there is a reserve pool where these fees go to. Where they are effectively out of the market. This should directly effect the price for each individual bitshare and IS the mechanisms by which value is transferred back to token holds. That correct? So it is not a dividend, but a kinda temporary burn. How temporary depends on the network participants.

Only with the approval of the predefined threshold of BTS token votes will these tokens be paid out (diluting the market). Yet, in theory, this will only be done when those with the most interest in long term value decided to let the network spend these reserve tokens.

Thus, I do not see your point as to the worthlessness of BTS tokens from a fundamental value perspective.

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

It's been about a year since bitshares 2.0 has come out... Transaction volume has increased steadily, while price has decreased steadily (slightly lower vs the dollar, but HAMMERED vs bitcoin).  bitCNY and other smartcoin volume has also increased.  Even with the collateral being locked up, it didn't help raise the price of the BTS token.

No fee's.. no profits... no increasing value to the token.  If you think BTS is going to rise due to smartcoin collateral lock ups I would look again. As Dan said right before he bolted... rising participation in the bitshares network doesn't necessarily mean a rising price for bts.

The people who are going to make money in the BTS ecosystem are the UIA issuers, not the BTS shareholders.



Offline KenMonkey

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3157 on: October 03, 2016, 06:21:10 pm »
Wow. Serious crunch for NXT, they've been sliced in third over the last 2 months. Could a slosh of cash money coming into BTS for those interested in POS, UIA. Obviously BTS is better than NXT with our bitAssets, multi-sig, OpenLedger, BlockPay. I'm looking forward to claiming my peerplays on their blockchain whenever they deploy it! I'm glad that the Peerplay snapshot didn't cause the same hyperbubble that NXT saw for Ardor (whatever that is).

Looks like the beginning of a lil surge for BTS. :)

Offline dritz3r

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3158 on: October 04, 2016, 07:26:17 am »
Wow. Serious crunch for NXT, they've been sliced in third over the last 2 months. Could a slosh of cash money coming into BTS for those interested in POS, UIA. Obviously BTS is better than NXT with our bitAssets, multi-sig, OpenLedger, BlockPay. I'm looking forward to claiming my peerplays on their blockchain whenever they deploy it! I'm glad that the Peerplay snapshot didn't cause the same hyperbubble that NXT saw for Ardor (whatever that is).

Looks like the beginning of a lil surge for BTS. :)

NXT will switch to ARDOR. Period for getting ARDOR from NEXT ending in 10 days. I wonder why is NXT still so expensive.

https://nxt.org/announcing-ardor/

Offline lil_jay890

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3159 on: October 11, 2016, 06:10:37 pm »
At least it appears BTS may have stabilized.  Steem on the other hand is getting DESTROYED.  Not that I have a problem with that... Just got to wonder what the "New and Revolutionary" product Dan will release in 2017 that he can milk his Larimer Lemmings for one more time...

I don't really bother going over to steem anymore after realizing it sucks, but anyone know the general investor feeling over there?  Just keep in mind the following charts the next time Dan tries to sell you something.





I remember when everyone blamed price declines on the crypto bear market... That was funny




Offline Brekyrself

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3160 on: October 11, 2016, 06:42:27 pm »
[member=23744]lil_jay890[/member] When you look at the top 10-20 on coinmarketcap one could say they all "suck."  Bitcoin has the first mover advantage however BTS and yes Steem are the only ones doing something different with real world use cases.

I did see in the troll box yesterday, OpenLedger mentioned a GUI revamp being done this month.  People do not understand bitcoin and when they load up bitshares, it's simply overwhelming.  I would hope to see the GUI revamp increase new user traction/retention and thus should drive up the price of bts.

Offline lil_jay890

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3161 on: October 11, 2016, 07:24:27 pm »
[member=23744]lil_jay890[/member] When you look at the top 10-20 on coinmarketcap one could say they all "suck."  Bitcoin has the first mover advantage however BTS and yes Steem are the only ones doing something different with real world use cases.

I did see in the troll box yesterday, OpenLedger mentioned a GUI revamp being done this month.  People do not understand bitcoin and when they load up bitshares, it's simply overwhelming.  I would hope to see the GUI revamp increase new user traction/retention and thus should drive up the price of bts.

If Openledger is updating the GUI in an attempt to drive traffic and retention you should buy OBITS, not BTS.  BTS just doesn't give any real reason to hold the token.  Network traffic and Collateral lock up have increased consistently over the last several months, but the price has stagnated and even declined.

I've been advocating forever that the only way that the BTS token becomes valuable is if the BTS network starts turning a profit.  But the governmental process is weak and there are no plans to make the network profitable.

Offline mr-whitekey

Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3162 on: October 11, 2016, 08:44:21 pm »
[member=23744]lil_jay890[/member] When you look at the top 10-20 on coinmarketcap one could say they all "suck."  Bitcoin has the first mover advantage however BTS and yes Steem are the only ones doing something different with real world use cases.

I did see in the troll box yesterday, OpenLedger mentioned a GUI revamp being done this month.  People do not understand bitcoin and when they load up bitshares, it's simply overwhelming.  I would hope to see the GUI revamp increase new user traction/retention and thus should drive up the price of bts.

If Openledger is updating the GUI in an attempt to drive traffic and retention you should buy OBITS, not BTS.  BTS just doesn't give any real reason to hold the token.  Network traffic and Collateral lock up have increased consistently over the last several months, but the price has stagnated and even declined.

I've been advocating forever that the only way that the BTS token becomes valuable is if the BTS network starts turning a profit.  But the governmental process is weak and there are no plans to make the network profitable.

How would Bitshares need to look if it were to turn a profit? Our main cost are: Dilution due to vesting which should end this November, witnesses which help secure the network, worker proposals which rarely get voted for,  and... what else?

Is it systemic to the network no matter the scale? If so then the project simply can not succeed no matter what. Or is it simply that the network has not scaled to a break even point yet?
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 08:46:30 pm by mr-whitekey »

Offline lil_jay890

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3163 on: October 12, 2016, 01:02:05 am »
[member=23744]lil_jay890[/member] When you look at the top 10-20 on coinmarketcap one could say they all "suck."  Bitcoin has the first mover advantage however BTS and yes Steem are the only ones doing something different with real world use cases.

I did see in the troll box yesterday, OpenLedger mentioned a GUI revamp being done this month.  People do not understand bitcoin and when they load up bitshares, it's simply overwhelming.  I would hope to see the GUI revamp increase new user traction/retention and thus should drive up the price of bts.

If Openledger is updating the GUI in an attempt to drive traffic and retention you should buy OBITS, not BTS.  BTS just doesn't give any real reason to hold the token.  Network traffic and Collateral lock up have increased consistently over the last several months, but the price has stagnated and even declined.

I've been advocating forever that the only way that the BTS token becomes valuable is if the BTS network starts turning a profit.  But the governmental process is weak and there are no plans to make the network profitable.

How would Bitshares need to look if it were to turn a profit? Our main cost are: Dilution due to vesting which should end this November, witnesses which help secure the network, worker proposals which rarely get voted for,  and... what else?

Is it systemic to the network no matter the scale? If so then the project simply can not succeed no matter what. Or is it simply that the network has not scaled to a break even point yet?

On the current path, people will get rich on the bts network. They will be the uia issuers that basically get to list and trade their assets on the network for free. The bitshares shareholders are paying to secure the uia issuers assets.  One would think that network activity would have increased exponentially as people discovered this benefit, but while the increases noticeable they have still been tepid at best.  Maybe this volume will come, but it still won't increase the value of the token.

Bitshares needs to cater to forex traders and raise the fees.  Stop loss and take profit orders need to be implemented and the GUI for shorting smartcoins needs to be simplified.  Bitshares was designed as a dex, and every exchange makes its money through fees or spreads. Traders will happily pay these spreads for liquidity (which we don't have) and security (do have). Because of the increased fees from traders people will start buying bts because it is now profitable. Some will leverage their investment by shorting smartcoins which will create more liquidity for traders. More liquidity=more traders=more fees= more bts speculation=more smartcoins=more liquidity. Positive feedback loop that will result in a higher bts token price.

Liquidity needs to be jump started a worker proposal. The referral program needs to be revived to give wallet and gui providers incentive to better their platforms. A second worker proposal needs to be created for the implementation of stop loss and take profit orders.

Offline kenCode

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Re: Bitshares price discussion
« Reply #3164 on: October 12, 2016, 06:50:57 am »

Bitshares needs to cater to forex traders and raise the fees.  Stop loss and take profit orders need to be implemented and the GUI for shorting smartcoins needs to be simplified.  Bitshares was designed as a dex, and every exchange makes its money through fees or spreads. Traders will happily pay these spreads for liquidity (which we don't have) and security (do have).
...
 A second worker proposal needs to be created for the implementation of stop loss and take profit orders.

 
A Worker to fund these things could work now with the anti-dilution guys probably attacking something else right now, but one problem here is the easiness of getting your Worker voted right back out again. Chronos has experienced this a few times, even our best core devs have as well. So we need a Worker to fix the Worker program, I think DataSecurityNode had some ideas on this topic.
 [member=19864]BunkerChain Labs[/member]
 
Once that is fixed, then I totally agree, we need to be a bad ass Dex. Implement those Trader features you mentioned above.
 
Making the Shorting GUI a bit easier to understand as well. We just need mockups for that though. Take some screen captures, throw those images into a Paint program, draw the changes and then the Designer and Dev can get them implemented asap.
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