Bitshares price discussion

[inarizushi]

Trading is really no different from gambling, apart from the fact that you can win a lot if you manipulate, lie and spread FUD.

I think its more like:  Trading is like playing Poker, as opposed to playing a slot machine.
It is an activity that involves both skill and randomness, and you can win if you are better than others, and will lose if you dont.

I dont think manipulating and spreading FUD is the way to win, or the reverse of it, though of course some times those things work, but more its about being able to read the state of the market.

Also, probably the most important skill of all in trading is the ability to cut your losses fast and keep them small, and let your winners ride and gain more out of them.

Trading isnt necessarily about predicting the future correctly more than 50% of the time.  Its more about how you handle being right or wrong.  Its not an easy thing.  I dont think I'm good enough at it yet myself, but at least I'm better than I was in the past.  When I was starting out if recent events occurred I wouldve sat in my long hoping it would work and gotten wrecked, instead of eating a small loss.

The state of the market is never really a state : at any moment a patient lurking whale can appear or someone can dump or a bug in the software can occur. Or your internet connection can suddenly stop at a crucial time. You can't really predict the future. You can probably predict the trader's behavior in the short term, and you can definitely profit from noob traders (and you can manipulate them by FUDing them), but that takes so much time, it's a full time job and if you're on margin you never have the peace of mind. The problem is that it doesn't seem to be a full time job. Trading is so goddamn addictive and you're the most motivated to trade when you're the least rational.

So yeah I agree it's very much like poker. And like in poker, something like 90% of traders are actually losing money, some can enrich themselves but mostly by luck or manipulation. Only brokers always win.

[Ander]

Trading is really no different from gambling, apart from the fact that you can win a lot if you manipulate, lie and spread FUD.

I think its more like:  Trading is like playing Poker, as opposed to playing a slot machine.
It is an activity that involves both skill and randomness, and you can win if you are better than others, and will lose if you dont.

I dont think manipulating and spreading FUD is the way to win, or the reverse of it, though of course some times those things work, but more its about being able to read the state of the market.

Also, probably the most important skill of all in trading is the ability to cut your losses fast and keep them small, and let your winners ride and gain more out of them.

Trading isnt necessarily about predicting the future correctly more than 50% of the time.  Its more about how you handle being right or wrong.  Its not an easy thing.  I dont think I'm good enough at it yet myself, but at least I'm better than I was in the past.  When I was starting out if recent events occurred I wouldve sat in my long hoping it would work and gotten wrecked, instead of eating a small loss.

[godzirra]

Well bounced twice off the lows. I think that's probably it.

[inarizushi]

I'm currently reading the intelligent investor. I wish I read that before investing in crypto and starting trading like a noob. Trading is really no different from gambling, apart from the fact that you can win a lot if you manipulate, lie and spread FUD. And trading caused so much harm to society, and is so addictive. I find it really sad that spreading trading will be a really nasty consequence of the democratization of cryptos, many many people will take stupid decisions and lose much money. I bet you that if cryptos become mainstream, we'll see addiction therapists popping everywhere. And you can't just decide to control yourself, it's really messing with your decision making. I really am ashamed of all the time and money I've lost in trading. And I know that as soon as the market is bullish again I won't care anymore and have a huge pressure to short again. Screw that. I guess I've been taught a valuable lesson. I really wish I was strong enough to stop shorting/trading and just hodl forever.

(A big bravo to all of you who are able to hodl and can withstand the "bag holder" insult with pride)

Investing is the right thing to do, and if you have done your homework, you are very patient in order to buy low (or buy at a constant pace regardless of the price because you accept that the markets can't be predicted without insider info), believe in the value of what you bought, and never sell unless it really is overvalued.

[Ander]

Yea, this is exactly why I could never do margin. The markets are so damn small and reactionary that half the time it seems like a coin flip which way it could go. And it's way too easy for whales to push the price wherever they want it to go.

I'm happy to just hodl and wait.

I shouldve stuck to my no margin plan.  Its too damn tempting.
Actually I think I'm up overall using it however, but I mostly have one large gain and like three different 1-2 btc losses.  There is a lot of risk of a big loss too.

For a month there it seemed like everything I did in ETH and then BTS worked out and I couldnt lose, and then in the past two weeks it changed and everything I've tried in either ETH or BTS has been wrong. :p

[nomoreheroes7]

Yea, this is exactly why I could never do margin. The markets are so damn small and reactionary that half the time it seems like a coin flip which way it could go. And it's way too easy for whales to push the price wherever they want it to go.

I'm happy to just hodl and wait.

[Ander]

I'm going to read your posts with skeptism now.  This isn't the first time you were bullish and then reversed your view.  Obviously you have other motives

When I was bullish that is what I thought would happen.  Then when the buy support was pulled I became worried and reversed my view, essentially admitted I was wrong.


What options do I have at that point?

* I can post "oh shit I think actually the bears are going to win and it will crash", but sit there still long".  - This is incredibly stupid since I might contribute to panic and cause the crash and get hurt.

* I can sell, and then post "oh shit I think actually the bears are going to win and it will crash".  - While I dont get hurt, I still contribute to the crash occurring. I didnt want BTS to crash, regardless of whether I had a long or not.  I still held a ton of BTS just not leveraged.

* I can sell, and then post that being on margin is risky.  Hopefully any community member who is on margin might consider closing it, but hopefully this isnt enough to create a panic or something.


Anyway, you should always read EVERYONEs post with skepticism.  Especially about trading.  All of us are here talking our books, all the time.  Expect that.

If I was better at trading and could predict with perfect accuracy what would occur, I would be rich instead of posting my thoughts on this board.  Sometimes I'll be right and sometimes wrong, and each individual person is responsible for their own trading.  I'm responsible for my own trading, thats why I might have to reverse my position and sell so as not to get wrecked.  Being 100% long BTS 100% of the time is not a trading strategy, and people who are doing that dont need to read about a traders thoughts on short term price movements.

You said I "have other motives".  Not losing a million BTS to a liquidation is a motive.

[topcandle]

"black swan" taking us lower. 

The crash was actually somewhat due to me.  The price of BTS on Poloniex is entirely controlled by 2 parties, one single bot and Cagara.  I saw the bot dumping into buy walls while putting up sells lower than market rate to try and drive down price on purpose, then right after that, it or someone else removed 100+ BTC buy support so there was like 70 BTC buy support only.  I instantly closed my long because I knew something was up and after I did, like 10 people got margin called and price imploded.  Then I bought back in at 2200.

If I stayed in, price would have only gone to 2300-2400 probably, but I wasn't going to be the sole person trying to keep BTS up and lose money while everyone else tries to crash it on purpose.  Anyone that wants to support BTS price, all you need to do is put some BTC in the margin trade account on Poloniex and put up a margin buy, even at some super low number that will never be filled to give the appearance of support.  (i.e. 10btc in margin trade accounts gets you a 25btc buy at 1800 that will never be filled).  This is why the Ethereum wall looks so huge, but nobody is doing it on BTS.

Yes.  I sold earlier because I saw this might occur, and that if it did I would be ruined.  So I sold in advance while I was still able to with only a small loss.  I probably contributed to the crash as well, but like r0ach said, it wouldve happened anyway and if I hadnt, I would be the guy losing money trying to hold it up.

I'm going to read your posts with skeptism now.  This isn't the first time you were bullish and then reversed your view.  Obviously you have other motives

[Ander]

manipulation at it's best...

I would have called it a self fulfilling prophecy, but if the crypto crowd calls it manipulation. manipulation it is !

Self fulfilling manipulation !

I intend to stop posting here, other than asking questions about how to use the product, issues I need help with etc

And I did not wanted to do it on such a undertone....
But if  you sell some bts, Ander and they happen to be 25 % of all the truly traded coins (not the one changing hands each day for 1-4% trading profit) what do you think will happen?
 "BTS will go up" well maybe it can, just the odds of doing so are slim...

I expect it will drop yeah.  If people pull all bid support and there are longs on margin this is what will occur. 

It couldve gone the other way if there was any bull out there with a couple hundred btc.  Cagara couldve been ruined instead of the bulls and we all couldve sold at 4000.  Literally the market cap of BTS couldve been 25M or it couldve been 13M based entirely on some dude with 50 grand.  That is leveraged markets for you...

In early september we all crushed the shorts and drove it from 1400 to 2500 and then 3100 because we as a community had a bunch of money saved up and we attacterd traders who piled on more money.

But then the shorts won the next round because they had the money at that point and the community was completely spent. 

[godzirra]

"black swan" taking us lower. 

The crash was actually somewhat due to me.  The price of BTS on Poloniex is entirely controlled by 2 parties, one single bot and Cagara.  I saw the bot dumping into buy walls while putting up sells lower than market rate to try and drive down price on purpose, then right after that, it or someone else removed 100+ BTC buy support so there was like 70 BTC buy support only.  I instantly closed my long because I knew something was up and after I did, like 10 people got margin called and price imploded.  Then I bought back in at 2200.

If I stayed in, price would have only gone to 2300-2400 probably, but I wasn't going to be the sole person trying to keep BTS up and lose money while everyone else tries to crash it on purpose.  Anyone that wants to support BTS price, all you need to do is put some BTC in the margin trade account on Poloniex and put up a margin buy, even at some super low number that will never be filled to give the appearance of support.  (i.e. 10btc in margin trade accounts gets you a 25btc buy at 1800 that will never be filled).  This is why the Ethereum wall looks so huge, but nobody is doing it on BTS.

r0ach man I appreciate your activism and love reading your analysis on bts. But you might want to stick to that and not trading tips. It's not good for your credibility that you were hyping the short squeeze and also triggered the selloff. Not cool man. By the way I had no margin position at the time, so I'm back on the buy, so maybe I should be thanking you, actually.

[Ander]

result oriented the best strategy was:
instead of removing our sell orders (or moving them higher)
adding buy orders much lower !!!

Grats to whoever had buy orders ready on the orderbook 

If people had added a bunch of buy orders this never would have happened.  It was the lack of sufficient buy orders on the books that caused it.

That and the fact that cagara had 250 btc left and every long was completely tapped out.

[Ander]

"black swan" taking us lower. 

The crash was actually somewhat due to me.  The price of BTS on Poloniex is entirely controlled by 2 parties, one single bot and Cagara.  I saw the bot dumping into buy walls while putting up sells lower than market rate to try and drive down price on purpose, then right after that, it or someone else removed 100+ BTC buy support so there was like 70 BTC buy support only.  I instantly closed my long because I knew something was up and after I did, like 10 people got margin called and price imploded.  Then I bought back in at 2200.

If I stayed in, price would have only gone to 2300-2400 probably, but I wasn't going to be the sole person trying to keep BTS up and lose money while everyone else tries to crash it on purpose.  Anyone that wants to support BTS price, all you need to do is put some BTC in the margin trade account on Poloniex and put up a margin buy, even at some super low number that will never be filled to give the appearance of support.  (i.e. 10btc in margin trade accounts gets you a 25btc buy at 1800 that will never be filled).  This is why the Ethereum wall looks so huge, but nobody is doing it on BTS.

Yes.  I sold earlier because I saw this might occur, and that if it did I would be ruined.  So I sold in advance while I was still able to with only a small loss.  I probably contributed to the crash as well, but like r0ach said, it wouldve happened anyway and if I hadnt, I would be the guy losing money trying to hold it up. 

[godzirra]

Called it.

You did... good call.

Lol. What a joke.

Why? Because he made money on the short side even though everyone here was patronizing him?  I'll follow the joker who makes money vs the preacher's who shout conspiracy any day

Fortunately we have a history of past posts. 2015 is not over and we are nowhere near 1400. So there's that. I couldn't care any less about who you follow. Just pointing out what was actually predicted, if that matters to you at all.

[chryspano]

we will see 1400 or 1300 soon. Should not have bought in here.

You're not off the hook yet.

 

[werneo]

Called it.

You did... good call.

Lol. What a joke.

Why? Because he made money on the short side even though everyone here was patronizing him?  I'll follow the joker who makes money vs the preacher's who shout conspiracy any day

 

I expect most everyone here is long term bullish on BTS, but it's irrational to become religious about it. Informed pragmatism is the best way for a trader to increase his/her holding over the long term.