Bitshares price discussion

[Ander]

Hypothetical question: If BTS loan rates were really high, say 0.2% - 0.5%, would shorts have to either renew at those loans after 2 days, or otherwise cover?

Would it result in margin call if they can't find BTS to renew the loan?

loans automatically renew at the lowest available rate.  I had a similar question a few weeks ago...what if someone used all of the available loan supply to place a sell order at a very high price?  Would this cause anyone who is short to be liquidated when they can't renew their loan?


From: Tristan D'Agosta <contact@poloniex.com>
Date: Thu, Sep 24, 2015 at 2:02 AM
Subject: Re: Hypothetical Margin trading question
To: dave23

You would not be liquidated at all; the loan just wouldn't close until
another became available. I don't think this has ever happened for a
substantial period of time, because fewer loan offers means better
rates, which provides an incentive for more offers.

If you wanted to discourage people from LENDING their BTS to people who want to SHORT then all you need to do is offer to pay them better interest rates on-chain.   

For example, offering everyone the option to earn 10% APR for a 30 day loan on the network would almost completely dry up the short side of the market.   Unfortunately, it would result in long-term inflation.

It wouldnt result in long term inflation if the loan was being paid for by a borrower to a lender, on the BTS exchange.  It would simply be a payment from one user to another.

It would be silly to have the blockchain itself offer that kind of return, of course.

[Ander]

BitShare Faithful had already spent every available penny to load up on as much bts as possible. Therefore we don't have any more money to spend, so the massive buy pressure in September must have come from somewhere else.

Actually Bitshares faithful were responsible for the first pump from 1400 to 2300.  It began with a 1.6M market buy 5 seconds after Dan announced the Oct 13 data on mumble.  It was the unleashing of a bunch of money that most of us had been saving up while BTS was falling while we were waiting for the 2.0 data to be announced.  The second rally was mostly traders, i agree, which is why it got wiped out once they exited.

[werneo]

Looks to me that 1921 was the low and we are heading up now.

I'm not so sure. Here's how I see it right now:



I anticipate at least one more dump to the bottom of the channel before we will see a serious possibility of breaking through the downtrend from the speculative highs.

There are usually around ~400 btc of buy orders on poloniex, and bts is now the number one traded coin most days of the week. A couple times this week I saw the bids drop to ~200 btc. Huge swings in the bid pile suggest just a few whale traders are in play at poloniex. So that leads me to believe that the pro crypto traders at polo bid up the price of bts at the time Dan announced the Oct 13 date for the bts 2.0 beta launch.  (Edit: Ander points out that polo traders probably jumped in somewhere over 2300 satoshis. I think he's on to something but based on the chart I would call the entry point more like 1800 sat.)

The second wave of buys (starting at ~1800 satoshis) caused the price to bubble on anticipation of the graphene release.

When prices rise and then start to fall again, it's human nature to want to preserve your wealth. The bts community is composed of risk-takers, so it makes sense that these investors would take a risk to preserve or increase their investment.

It's worth noting polo traders read this forum and listen to recordings of our Friday meetings. They also read Stan's announcements, and maybe in spite of themselves they also get a little tingly that BitShares might actually be The One.

But a pro trader is a pro trader. The object of their game is trading-for-profit.

[bytemaster]

Hypothetical question: If BTS loan rates were really high, say 0.2% - 0.5%, would shorts have to either renew at those loans after 2 days, or otherwise cover?

Would it result in margin call if they can't find BTS to renew the loan?

loans automatically renew at the lowest available rate.  I had a similar question a few weeks ago...what if someone used all of the available loan supply to place a sell order at a very high price?  Would this cause anyone who is short to be liquidated when they can't renew their loan?


From: Tristan D'Agosta <contact@poloniex.com>
Date: Thu, Sep 24, 2015 at 2:02 AM
Subject: Re: Hypothetical Margin trading question
To: dave23

You would not be liquidated at all; the loan just wouldn't close until
another became available. I don't think this has ever happened for a
substantial period of time, because fewer loan offers means better
rates, which provides an incentive for more offers.

If you wanted to discourage people from LENDING their BTS to people who want to SHORT then all you need to do is offer to pay them better interest rates on-chain.   

For example, offering everyone the option to earn 10% APR for a 30 day loan on the network would almost completely dry up the short side of the market.   Unfortunately, it would result in long-term inflation.   

[Ander]

Looks to me that 1921 was the low and we are heading up now.

[dave23]

Hypothetical question: If BTS loan rates were really high, say 0.2% - 0.5%, would shorts have to either renew at those loans after 2 days, or otherwise cover?

Would it result in margin call if they can't find BTS to renew the loan?

loans automatically renew at the lowest available rate.  I had a similar question a few weeks ago...what if someone used all of the available loan supply to place a sell order at a very high price?  Would this cause anyone who is short to be liquidated when they can't renew their loan?


From: Tristan D'Agosta <contact@poloniex.com>
Date: Thu, Sep 24, 2015 at 2:02 AM
Subject: Re: Hypothetical Margin trading question
To: dave23

You would not be liquidated at all; the loan just wouldn't close until
another became available. I don't think this has ever happened for a
substantial period of time, because fewer loan offers means better
rates, which provides an incentive for more offers.

[chryspano]

Uptrend starting. The messages i got from my meditations yesterday were very similar to the ones around the time I  was buying bitcoin around 2 dollar. Good things to come friends.

If you were buying Bitcoin at $2, wouldn't you be able to buy all of Bitshares? Or were you also selling at $5?

My bet is that he sold at $2.10 at most  traders can't resist a nice quick profit.

[bitmeat]

Uptrend starting. The messages i got from my meditations yesterday were very similar to the ones around the time I  was buying bitcoin around 2 dollar. Good things to come friends.

If you were buying Bitcoin at $2, wouldn't you be able to buy all of Bitshares? Or were you also selling at $5?

[karnal]

Uptrend starting. The messages i got from my meditations yesterday were very similar to the ones around the time I  was buying bitcoin around 2 dollar. Good things to come friends.

Delightful Meditation Timing you have there 

[inarizushi]

Uptrend starting. The messages i got from my meditations yesterday were very similar to the ones around the time I  was buying bitcoin around 2 dollar. Good things to come friends.

So you're a real oracle with a real interstellar connection to the inner truth of the universe, how blessed we are !

[bitmeat]

Hypothetical question: If BTS loan rates were really high, say 0.2% - 0.5%, would shorts have to either renew at those loans after 2 days, or otherwise cover?

Would it result in margin call if they can't find BTS to renew the loan?

[emailtooaj]

A BitShares Traders Guided Meditation ... https://youtu.be/92i5m3tV5XY

Ahhh yes, as I breathe in deeply and slowly exhale... I too say "Fuc% That"!!

[Tuck Fheman]

A BitShares Traders Guided Meditation ... https://youtu.be/92i5m3tV5XY

[Blazin8888]

Uptrend starting. The messages i got from my meditations yesterday were very similar to the ones around the time I  was buying bitcoin around 2 dollar. Good things to come friends.

[Ander]

Anyone think the 17 witness thing could be a factor?

The thread was started on 21/09  https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,18549.0.html

Prior to that we were rising and hit a high of $17.2 million on 21/09.

Or maybe its the paying them $300 a month thing.