BTS & Prediction Markets, looking at Augur...

[sschiessl]

Anyone has a link to a prediction market website that you consider having good UX?

[rebekahstaley89]

I don't see difference between sport's betting and [https://www.allcasinosite.com/]casino[/url] games

[Erlina]

best qatar 


http://www.bestqatarcasinos.com/

[Cur_tis]

I don't see big difference between sport's betting and casino games too,

Cool, I want to try

[zorges]

So atm people would prefer Bond or Prediction markets? I'm curious. What do you think would bring in more liquidity? I would go with bond markets. Augur already has all the media, etc, it would be a waste to build something and compete atm. Bond markets make more sense imo.

Its a good question.  I'm thinking Bond markets are the harder of the two to deploy and has greater chance of failure than prediction markets.  We haven't seen bond markets done in a decentralized manner.  Although to do Votecoin/REP style PM's would be more difficult than bond markets. 

So I'm not sure.  A PM would bring many eyes towards Bitshares because of the countless questions being asked.  Coupled with referral it could be quite viral. 

Bond+PMs+ Referral = Next big thing.

We should go with whatever brings more liquidity.

According to numerous gambling industry experts, Augur will probably surpass all major gambling platforms in the near future.

http://uk.casinorelease.com/augur-will-probably-surpass-all-major-online-gambling-platforms

The link in your quote links the exact same article. What industry experts? I mean, that article doesn't mention who those industry experts are or some kind of study, plus it may well be biased. Like it is, it seems like a hype article. I would love to see a study on that as I'm very curious about it but the link redirects to the exact same page....

I don't see big difference between sport's betting and casino games too,

[btswildpig]

I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

and bond market. problem is we can't have everything at the same time. We should define what would be the most important thing for BitShares. Then once the GUI is ready we would move onto it.

Actually I bet if we used our workers to pay top dollar for good work, we could get MANY things done over the course of a couple years....

you should put in more money to support the bet , otherwise it's not a bet .

I bet the big thing could happened with BTS in August-October 2014 , and I brought a lot , that was a lost bet . Nonetheless , it was a bet .

SO...do you want to act on the bet ?

[TravelsAsia]

I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

and bond market. problem is we can't have everything at the same time. We should define what would be the most important thing for BitShares. Then once the GUI is ready we would move onto it.

Actually I bet if we used our workers to pay top dollar for good work, we could get MANY things done over the course of a couple years....

I couldn't agree with you more.

[fuzzy]

I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

and bond market. problem is we can't have everything at the same time. We should define what would be the most important thing for BitShares. Then once the GUI is ready we would move onto it.

Actually I bet if we used our workers to pay top dollar for good work, we could get MANY things done over the course of a couple years....

[Empirical1.2]

Why not just replicate every single market that exists on Augur here on BitShares? It will bring in more people looking for better odds, plus we have smartcoins.

Then people will get used to using both and our markets will gain volume too. You just plant a few seeds here and there on the forums "But on BTS that market is paying X for outcome B", etc. People should naturally come and check it out.

  Yeah that's an option and I think we'll benefit a lot more from the BitAsset volume than just the fees.

However if they've got a great familiar layout, are the most popular and handle the judging for 1% then it might be better for us to start offering markets in BitUSD on their platform if that's possible? Imo the real winner will be the decentralised dollar stable currency that becomes the defacto betting unit across the majority of Augur markets. In which case we only have to focus on providing a great BitUSD all collaterlized by BTS.

I think they may already have a solution to that though, haven't looked into them lately, just saw the price spike and it got me thinking about it again.

[Akado]

Why not just replicate every single market that exists on Augur here on BitShares? It will bring in more people looking for better odds, plus we have smartcoins.

Then people will get used to using both and our markets will gain volume too. You just plant a few seeds here and there on the forums "But on BTS that market is paying X for outcome B", etc. People should naturally come and check it out.

[Empirical1.2]

What currency does Augur betting volume actually flow through?

If it's similar to what TruthCoin was proposing and REP only receives 0.5-1% of each bet then a BitUSD based version on BTS would be much more valuable. (Would you rather own REP that received 1% in fees from $1 Billion worth of betting or would you rather own the share through which all the betting volume was flowing?)

I have a feeling that having the trading volume coming into a 0% inflation share system starting from a low cap, while the product/service is in it's growth cycle (which could last years) is > than a lot/all of 1% transaction fees.

Example: Truthcoin is planning to let people bet in Bitcoin but charge 1% transaction fees which gets paid to Truthcoin holders. 
But I'm wondering whether if they had $100 million in trading volume going into Truthcoin instead over the course of the year (which would start from a low market cap) how much of the $1 million in fees they were planning to charge they could offset?

If the betting volume flows through another currency other than REP then a BTS based fork, using BitUSD as the betting unit could potentially gain a much higher value with a fraction of the betting volume.

Similar to the BitAsset yield proposal, while the prediction market is in the growth phase, BTS could pay more to 'judges' and charge less than 1% because it is benefiting from BTS for BitUSD demand. (REP would receive $10 million from $1 Billion worth of betting if the betting volume flowed through another unit, while BTS (BitUSD) would receive the benefit of $1 billion in betting volume.)

REP currently values Augur at $180 million  (Though it's probably over-valued due to small amount of IOU trading)

(Other thought: If Augur/Eth doesn't have a dollar stable currency yet, maybe we can offer Augur based PM's for BitUSD. Whoever becomes the de facto betting unit will probably benefit more than REP if REP isn't actually the betting unit.)

[topcandle]

I thought Intrade was a very successful business until they got shut down.  Remember that they were starting to gain traction and had been used on cnbc at times.  Plus intrade charged a monthly subscription fee (which turned me off). 

[Empirical1.2]

According to numerous gambling industry experts, Augur will probably surpass all major gambling platforms in the near future.

http://uk.casinorelease.com/augur-will-probably-surpass-all-major-online-gambling-platforms

The link in your quote links the exact same article. What industry experts? I mean, that article doesn't mention who those industry experts are or some kind of study, plus it may well be biased. Like it is, it seems like a hype article. I would love to see a study on that as I'm very curious about it but the link redirects to the exact same page....

Apologies it was 3 am in the morning. I don't know who the 'experts' are they're referring too. There are a few industry relevant testimonials on the Augur home page though.

What I do know is that the last major disruptor to gambling was Betfair in 2000. 

In the gambling sector, the best-known example of disruptive change since 2000 has been the emergence of Betfair, which has delighted consumers and rankled bookmakers. To date, the only effective defense against letting exchange wagering take hold in America has been to try and declare it illegal for as long as possible. But that might not be possible with Augur, which plans to set its bet takeout at an astoundingly low 1% while offering complete anonymity to its users

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/could-augur-shift-more-than-the-betting-paradigm/

The price alone should give Nevada sportsbook operators pause; an estimated one percent of every pot will go to keep the system running. The average vig today is about 10 times that. Augur isn't a full-fledged casino. You can't play roulette or poker, and running lotto on the platform would be tricky. But it'll be great for sports betting.

https://reason.com/blog/2015/08/11/augur-gambling-prediction-ethereum

Betfair Group plc is the world's largest Internet betting exchange

Betfair claims on average 20 percent better odds than those offered by a traditional bookmaker.[11] Betfair charges a commission on all winning bets, which is set at 5 percent of the net winnings for most markets,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betfair


So even compared to Betfair, Augur will offer a really huge saving by comparison and be accessible virtually everywhere. This is why most think it could be even more disruptive than BetFair.

Augur Weaknesses...

- Some prediction market like Intrade had limited success. They enjoyed a lot of action on large political questions like presidential elections where they did a few hundred million turnover but were fairly quiet otherwise.

- Speed of outcomes & liquidity.

Even though horse race betting is theoretically do-able, it’s likely to be awhile before Augur evolves into a serious threat to the pari-mutuel system.First there is the obvious problem of Augur’s markets not being liquid enough to compete. They certainly won’t be at first. But like any emerging paradigm, if Augur is appealing and robust enough, users will eventually flock to it. When U.S. racing first switched from betting via bookmakers to pari-mutuels in the early 20th Century, liquidity was a concern cited by early detractors. Eventually, pari-mutuels became the established platform. Then there is the difficulty of the lag time involved in reporting results by consensus

However it looks like Augur will be using some form of automated market making to address liquidity, this is linked to from Augur.net

"Automated market maker for accurate predictions (small bid-ask spreads)"  http://blog.oddhead.com/2010/07/08/why-automated-market-makers/

The Augur video has already had  189000 views. They have >5000 on their update mailing list. They raised >$5 million and their is a market for REP on Gatecoin that currently values Augur at circa $19 million I think.

[Akado]

So atm people would prefer Bond or Prediction markets? I'm curious. What do you think would bring in more liquidity? I would go with bond markets. Augur already has all the media, etc, it would be a waste to build something and compete atm. Bond markets make more sense imo.

Its a good question.  I'm thinking Bond markets are the harder of the two to deploy and has greater chance of failure than prediction markets.  We haven't seen bond markets done in a decentralized manner.  Although to do Votecoin/REP style PM's would be more difficult than bond markets. 

So I'm not sure.  A PM would bring many eyes towards Bitshares because of the countless questions being asked.  Coupled with referral it could be quite viral. 

Bond+PMs+ Referral = Next big thing.

We should go with whatever brings more liquidity.

According to numerous gambling industry experts, Augur will probably surpass all major gambling platforms in the near future.

http://uk.casinorelease.com/augur-will-probably-surpass-all-major-online-gambling-platforms

The link in your quote links the exact same article. What industry experts? I mean, that article doesn't mention who those industry experts are or some kind of study, plus it may well be biased. Like it is, it seems like a hype article. I would love to see a study on that as I'm very curious about it but the link redirects to the exact same page....

[Empirical1.2]

I don't see why this should be on Bitshares... you mentioned Play which is a side chain.. why not let a side chain do something in this space? Leave Bitshares out of it.

We do have Lottoshares!

The industry is HIGHLY regulated. In the vacuum of not having blockchain tech these past 20 years regulations have come down hard on the industry to make it accountable. While your arguments are that we have a better mouse trap.. it would only really provide any value to new comers which are far and few.. it also remains to be seen if the current regulations even somehow work with how blockchain works.

If you are suggesting that the big idea is to skirt regulations by hiding behind the thin veil of decentralization, that will come to a quick end when the big guns of the gaming industry put us in its cross-hairs.

I understand that some small time gambling stuff with Bitcoin made it gain traction.. but look around.. bitcoin never got mass adoption.. so if we want to take the same type of empirical evidence you have used to prove your point.. adding gambling to bitshares will not enable us to gain mass adoption.. but it will help some who use it for such to make some 'billions'.. before the regulation hammer comes down on it... same way it has on Bitcoin.

I understand that some small time gambling stuff with Bitcoin made it gain traction.. but look around.. bitcoin never got mass adoption..

Despite being associated with gambling, dark markets and skirting capital controls, Bitcoin is on track to gain wider adoption and enjoys a similar level of VC investment to the Internet at a comparable stage.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/bitcoin-growing-25-faster-internet-its-early-years-1512717

( I think Bitcoin will be overtaken by a BitUSD in the future, but think that it will be initially bootstrapped through use cases like gambling & sports betting.)

Many say the Bitcoin gambling boom is only getting started http://cointelegraph.com/news/115517/will-mainstream-gambling-sites-accept-bitcoin-across-the-board

However I see gambling moving to Augur and price stable currency gambling Apps on Ethereum.  Potentially leaving Bitcoin in their dust given the size of the online gambling market, the advantages blockchains have over centralized options & the proven ability of gambling and sports betting to bootstrap a new place/technology/platform.  It would have been nice if BitShares could be a part of that.

I also don't think that just by offering gambling or a decentralised marketplace you are defined by that. I think most major decentralized 2.0 platforms will probably offer them. 

However if you think BitShares current trajectory is good and that it just needs a little more time that's cool. 

Prediction/future markets sound promising and don't have associations with destroying lives. 

I think a prediction market would be great but prediction markets like Augur will also offer sports betting which I class as a form of gambling. So personally I don't see a major difference between casino games and sports betting.

http://www.casino.org/news/augur-promises-distributed-sports-betting-platform

According to numerous gambling industry experts, Augur will probably surpass all major gambling platforms in the near future.

http://uk.casinorelease.com/augur-will-probably-surpass-all-major-online-gambling-platforms

[topcandle]

So atm people would prefer Bond or Prediction markets? I'm curious. What do you think would bring in more liquidity? I would go with bond markets. Augur already has all the media, etc, it would be a waste to build something and compete atm. Bond markets make more sense imo.

Its a good question.  I'm thinking Bond markets are the harder of the two to deploy and has greater chance of failure than prediction markets.  We haven't seen bond markets done in a decentralized manner.  Although to do Votecoin/REP style PM's would be more difficult than bond markets. 

So I'm not sure.  A PM would bring many eyes towards Bitshares because of the countless questions being asked.  Coupled with referral it could be quite viral. 

Bond+PMs+ Referral = Next big thing. 

[Akado]

How does casino gambling fit with our slogan "industrial-grade financial smart contract platform"?

Why don't we do Prediction Markets first and evaluate the need for casinos after.  Its the next logical step.  And least controversial.

Casinos and stuff can be separated businesses who simply use bitAssets, it doesn't need to be built in BitShares. CCEDK already has an online casino with BTC and mentioned it will use bitAssets in the future. It will only take one and we can have huge liquidity, look SatoshiDice. That and silkroad at some point made the most % of btc transactions.

So atm people would prefer Bond or Prediction markets? I'm curious. What do you think would bring in more liquidity? I would go with bond markets. Augur already has all the media, etc, it would be a waste to build something and compete atm. Bond markets make more sense imo.

[topcandle]

How does casino gambling fit with our slogan "industrial-grade financial smart contract platform"?

Why don't we do Prediction Markets first and evaluate the need for casinos after.  Its the next logical step.  And least controversial. 

[BunkerChainLabs-DataSecurityNode]

If you think of BitShares as a free economic zone then you should look at what has historically worked to bootstrap others.

How do you bootstrap a word famous, successful city in the middle of a desert?

Realizing that gambling would be profitable for local business, the Nevada state legislature legalized gambling at the local level in 1931. Las Vegas was poised to begin its rise as the gaming capital of the world

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Las_Vegas

How does a bankrupt city become one of the wealthiest in Europe?

By the 1850s Monaco's reigning family was almost bankrupt.  At the time, a number of small towns in Europe were growing prosperous from the establishment of casinos... . The success of the casino grew slowly, largely due to the area's inaccessibility from much of Europe. The installation of the railway in 1868, however, brought with it an influx of people into Monte Carlo and saw it grow in wealth.[2] 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo

How do you create one of the world's richest cities in communist China?

Macau is one of the world's richest cities, and as of 2013 its GDP per capita by purchasing power parity is higher than that of any country in the world, according to the World Bank.[11][12] It became the world's largest gambling centre in 2006,[13] with the economy heavily dependent on gambling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau

What helped Bitcoin get bootstrapped?

Firm says online gambling accounts for almost half of all Bitcoin transactions
Although it's not quite legal in the US, online gambling is big business in BTC

http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/08/firm-says-online-gambling-accounts-for-almost-half-of-all-bitcoin-transactions/

Customers aren't attracted to shopping malls with no businesses and businesses aren't attracted to shopping malls with no customers.

Traders don't want to risk holding illiquid assets but the assets won't become liquid without traders using them.

Gambling doesn't have that chicken and egg problem, hence why it works so well as a catalyst to kickstart the economies where it's introduced provided there's a market for it.

Given that blockchains can undercut centralised options, offer privacy, provable fairness and funds are safer. the future of gambling is definitely on the blockchain.

I predict this sector will be the one that creates the first crypto-billionaires.

PLAY doesn't seem to be doing very much/moving slow. So I think if BitShares is struggling to gain traction it should re-look at introducing gambling at the blockchain level.

If not we'll be able to see in a few months if the potential and market is there with Augur.

I understand what you are saying... but what you are basically stating is that our only true customer target is the gambler. What topcandle and perhaps others have expressed is that this will reduce bitshares to a very specific segment, and everything else people have dreamed about or wished for would be finished.

I don't see why this should be on Bitshares... you mentioned Play which is a side chain.. why not let a side chain do something in this space? Leave Bitshares out of it.

We do have Lottoshares!

The industry is HIGHLY regulated. In the vacuum of not having blockchain tech these past 20 years regulations have come down hard on the industry to make it accountable. While your arguments are that we have a better mouse trap.. it would only really provide any value to new comers which are far and few.. it also remains to be seen if the current regulations even somehow work with how blockchain works.

If you are suggesting that the big idea is to skirt regulations by hiding behind the thin veil of decentralization, that will come to a quick end when the big guns of the gaming industry put us in its cross-hairs.

I understand that some small time gambling stuff with Bitcoin made it gain traction.. but look around.. bitcoin never got mass adoption.. so if we want to take the same type of empirical evidence you have used to prove your point.. adding gambling to bitshares will not enable us to gain mass adoption.. but it will help some who use it for such to make some 'billions'.. before the regulation hammer comes down on it... same way it has on Bitcoin.

Bytemaster made a commentary in last weeks hangout about who bitshares should be targeting.. he specifically thought that freedom lovers should be who we are going after. Full transparency is not everyones thing... and if we are going to change that.. well we have to vote on that.

Prediction/future markets sound promising and don't have associations with destroying lives. 

[Empirical1.2]

I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

This is disappointing to hear.  Clearly you need to think about Bitshares perceptions in China.  Any kind of association with casino style gambling would bring disciplinary action from the government in China.  This would kill Bitshares. 

The minute the chinese community hears Bitshares is putting gambling into the blockchain, the chinese will start taking out their money in droves.... 

Prediction Markets offer value and will benefit society, unlike casino style gambling.  Its less risky and provides a new financial category that would be bitshares to dominate.  Why not advocate for something that is revolutionary (information markets) , rather than devolutionary (casinos)?

Yes this was the argument.

If anyone wants to drive BTS out of  China and lost the only major fiat portal we could ever have in at least 6 months and ruin all the hard working promotion effort with serious VC investors  , please do this . Otherwise , don't . No gambling should be on BTS wallet , period . I've already obtained opinion from experienced lawyers .

spoiler alert : BTS is gonna go viral in several months due to some major promotion effort in China , unless we do something to drag their feet . A crowd funding company already got millions of USD of VC to operate their operation on BTS . That's once in a life time opportunity for BTS .

I don't know the status on fiat portal, their big VC investors, or this super viral event that was going to happen but I haven't seen much yet & according to them BTS won't easily expand with the current fee system in China anyway.

What I do see is even centralized gambling companies making billions in China..

China is one of the world’s largest online gambling markets despite the government having outlawed betting in all but a few controlled scenarios.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/03/bet365-profit-china-online-gambling

[Tuck Fheman]

This is disappointing to hear. 

You make some good points. It would do more harm than good perhaps. I can do without it, but would welcome it as long as it did not have detrimental consequences.

[topcandle]

I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

This is disappointing to hear.  Clearly you need to think about Bitshares perceptions in China.  Any kind of association with casino style gambling would bring disciplinary action from the government in China.  This would kill Bitshares. 

The minute the chinese community hears Bitshares is putting gambling into the blockchain, the chinese will start taking out their money in droves.... 

Prediction Markets offer value and will benefit society, unlike casino style gambling.  Its less risky and provides a new financial category that would be bitshares to dominate.  Why not advocate for something that is revolutionary (information markets) , rather than devolutionary (casinos)?

[Akado]

I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

and bond market. problem is we can't have everything at the same time. We should define what would be the most important thing for BitShares. Then once the GUI is ready we would move onto it.

[Ander]

I think we need both gambling and prediction markets.

[topcandle]

So I think if BitShares is struggling to gain traction it should re-look at introducing gambling at the blockchain level.

No just implement Augur / Truthcoin.

[Tuck Fheman]

So I think if BitShares is struggling to gain traction it should re-look at introducing gambling at the blockchain level.

[Empirical1.2]

If you think of BitShares as a free economic zone then you should look at what has historically worked to bootstrap others.

How do you bootstrap a word famous, successful city in the middle of a desert?

Realizing that gambling would be profitable for local business, the Nevada state legislature legalized gambling at the local level in 1931. Las Vegas was poised to begin its rise as the gaming capital of the world

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Las_Vegas

How does a bankrupt city become one of the wealthiest in Europe?

By the 1850s Monaco's reigning family was almost bankrupt.  At the time, a number of small towns in Europe were growing prosperous from the establishment of casinos... . The success of the casino grew slowly, largely due to the area's inaccessibility from much of Europe. The installation of the railway in 1868, however, brought with it an influx of people into Monte Carlo and saw it grow in wealth.[2] 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo

How do you create one of the world's richest cities in communist China?

Macau is one of the world's richest cities, and as of 2013 its GDP per capita by purchasing power parity is higher than that of any country in the world, according to the World Bank.[11][12] It became the world's largest gambling centre in 2006,[13] with the economy heavily dependent on gambling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau

What helped Bitcoin get bootstrapped?

Firm says online gambling accounts for almost half of all Bitcoin transactions
Although it's not quite legal in the US, online gambling is big business in BTC

http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/08/firm-says-online-gambling-accounts-for-almost-half-of-all-bitcoin-transactions/

Customers aren't attracted to shopping malls with no businesses and businesses aren't attracted to shopping malls with no customers.

Traders don't want to risk holding illiquid assets but the assets won't become liquid without traders using them.

Gambling doesn't have that chicken and egg problem, hence why it works so well as a catalyst to kickstart the economies where it's introduced provided there's a market for it.

Given that blockchains can undercut centralised options, offer privacy, provable fairness and funds are safer. the future of gambling is definitely on the blockchain.

I predict this sector will be the one that creates the first crypto-billionaires.

PLAY doesn't seem to be doing very much/moving slow. So I think if BitShares is struggling to gain traction it should re-look at introducing gambling at the blockchain level.

If not we'll be able to see in a few months if the potential and market is there with Augur.

[Empirical1.2]

I was slightly skeptical but I see obviously Augur raised $5 million & their promo video has 188 000 views.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yegyih591Jo

'Augur may become the greatest gambling platform in history'

Coming this fall, Augur will allow participants to wager money on any future event of their choosing. Software will set the odds, collect the bets, and disperse the winnings. The price alone should give Nevada sportsbook operators pause; an estimated one percent of every pot will go to keep the system running. The average vig today is about 10 times that.

https://reason.com/blog/2015/08/11/augur-gambling-prediction-ethereum

BTC gambling played a massive role in terms of attracting users and generating turnover and transactions in Bitcoin's early years. But 2.0 blockchains can go way beyond that as they can undercut centralised options while being safer & provably fair which presents huge opportunities for the platform that gets first mover advantage. Bitcoin's volatility has been a problem for longer term bets, but dollar stable options solve that too. So it's something that interests me a lot.

Where does BTS stand on prediction markets atm?