PLEASE VOTE NEXT PROPOSAL: BOND OR PREDICTION MARKETS.

[fav]

Next goal: make gateways working in "single-transfer" and "end-to-end" mode, without trading OPEN.BTC, TRADE.BTC, SOMETHING.BTC with bitBTC.

 

[topcandle]

The reason I vote bond markets is that you can emulate prediction markets using privatised bitAssets. The feed price becomes the oracle. You cannot do the same thing with bond markets.

The thing is you can only do binominal type outcomes.  There is no scalar type outcomes.  Eg. Bitshares = Republicans will gain >200 seats in the House and Senate?
Augur = How many seats will Congress gain in the house and the senate?

This is a big downside because your missing out on all the sports, financial statistical type questions. 

[noisy]

Next goal: make gateways working in "single-transfer" and "end-to-end" mode, without trading OPEN.BTC, TRADE.BTC, SOMETHING.BTC with bitBTC.

[clout]

Can't prediction markets be implemented using private bitasset markets?

[monsterer]

The reason I vote bond markets is that you can emulate prediction markets using privatised bitAssets. The feed price becomes the oracle. You cannot do the same thing with bond markets.

[Empirical1.2]

Wouldnt a bond market bring in more liquidity? Plus we would always be under the shadow of augur so... The optimal decision would be to go for bond markets? I dont know however,  the level of difficulty achieving each one of those tasks

It's a tough one. Augur is currently valued at around $22 million (possibly inflated by limited supply) and it hasn't even been released yet.
https://gatecoin.com/ Their 189000 video views and 5000+ on an update mailing list is also compelling.

So it's tempting but they have first mover advantage and will probably get the majority of business unless BTS can considerably improve on their weaknesses, which may be speed of outcomes.

Even though horse race betting is theoretically do-able, it’s likely to be awhile before Augur evolves into a serious threat to the pari-mutuel system.First there is the obvious problem of Augur’s markets not being liquid enough to compete.Then there is the difficulty of the lag time involved in reporting results by consensus

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/could-augur-shift-more-than-the-betting-paradigm/

Also...

The price alone should give Nevada sportsbook operators pause; an estimated one percent of every pot will go to keep the system running. The average vig today is about 10 times that. Augur isn't a full-fledged casino. You can't play roulette or poker, and running lotto on the platform would be tricky. But it'll be great for sports betting.

https://reason.com/blog/2015/08/11/augur-gambling-prediction-ethereum

BTS does have the capacity to offer Las Vegas on a blockchain, so I would choose attempting to dominate the entire gambling market as the route to outcompete them. However I know that's not popular.

[monsterer]

I wholly  agree.  That's why I am extremely weary about the bond markets.  IT HAS TO BE MARGIN type.  Why I don't think this will happen?  I know Bytemaster has a way to promise something and when he delivers is not in line with our expectations.

Why i don't think it will happen is because he's said it wont

I'm hoping he can be swayed, tho...

[topcandle]

I'd vote for bond markets, but not @bytemaster's design for them; they need blockchain driven margin calls, or their not worth implementing IMO.

I wholly  agree.  That's why I am extremely weary about the bond markets.  IT HAS TO BE MARGIN type.  Why I don't think this will happen?  I know Bytemaster has a way to promise something and when he delivers is not in line with our expectations. 

[monsterer]

I'd vote for bond markets, but not @bytemaster's design for them; they need blockchain driven margin calls, or their not worth implementing IMO.

[fav]

Prediction Markets are really nice. imagine if we had like 10% of augur... would be an instant win

[topcandle]

Wouldnt a bond market bring in more liquidity? Plus we would always be under the shadow of augur so... The optimal decision would be to go for bond markets? I dont know however,  the level of difficulty achieving each one of those tasks

I'd argue no because Prediction Markets would bring numerous arbitrage opportunities between Augur and Bitshares.   They both would have to reflect the same prediction price, if not there is opportunities for somebody to make a profit.  This is self rewarding.  Meaning more transactions on the network. 

Also why would we be in the shadow of Augur.  Our system is faster.  Similarly there is plenty of room for Augur and Bitshares. 


Think 2016 Presidential Elections. 
Think of all the questions in DIFFERENT LANGUAGES
THINK OF  ALL THE QUESTIONS IN DIFFERENT ACADEMIC FIELDS
THINK OF ALL THE FINANCIAL QUESTIONS
THINK OF ALL THE SPORTS QUESTIONS

[BTSdac]

bond market ,
I think it is the kill app of bts
many many people in Chinese like high risk investment, like BTC leveraged exchange , but the exchange platform usually do evil,  but there isn`t a decentralize exchange .

[betax]

I believe prediction markets is a good idea, as it diversifies the offering. Bonds straight afterwards  

[Akado]

Wouldnt a bond market bring in more liquidity? Plus we would always be under the shadow of augur so... The optimal decision would be to go for bond markets? I dont know however,  the level of difficulty achieving each one of those tasks

[topcandle]

Please vote you guys.  This is important.